When would be a good time to book air?

[bubbie617]

We are doing a Med cruise RT from Barcelona at the end of May. I have been watching the airfares on US Airways (the only airline that will fly us there and back non-stop). The prices are ridiculously high (over $1200 per person from PHL with taxes), and I'm betting that they will drop sometime before the cruise. I've checked the seat details for each flight we want and the planes are still pretty empty.

 

Can anyone hazard a guess as to when or if prices will go down?

[karle]

Hi Susan, i just booked airfare to Rome, nonstop, last week for our July cruise and tickets were $1350. I had been watching prices for 5 months and were not going down. but up. I would probally not wait, but its up to you. With the prices of fuel on the rise, everyone does not think prices are going down. Also, you would get 1st pick for your seats, and 1200 actually, does not sound like a bad price for nonstop flights, of we are going in July. When in May are you going? Good Luck, I know its frustrating .

[greatam]

Airlines generally use May 15 as the date between spring (cheap) and summer (expensive) fares. So if you are going in late May, you fall into summer pricing. Sorry.

 

You are also trying to book a nonstop. Almost always more expensive. A one stop flight via AMS, Dublin, Frankfort or even Zurich could be MUCH cheaper. AA has recently started nonstop service to BCN from JFK, so you may save some money driving, flying or taking Amtrak to JFK and then fly nonstop to BCN.

 

Seat maps on airline websites are VERY unreliable indicators of how many seats are available. Quite a few of those seats may have been sold-pax have just not chosen their seats (think cruise air, when you don't know what flights you have until 30-60 days pre cruise).

 

I have seen seat maps that would indicate the plane has seats available, only to find out that the plane is in OVERSOLD status. People just haven't picked their seats yet.

 

$1200 for nonstop PHL/Barcelona is a decent price for summer. It would be HIGHLY unlikely that it will go lower.

[Globaliser]

... I'm betting that they will drop sometime before the cruise. I've checked the seat details for each flight we want and the planes are still pretty empty.

 

Can anyone hazard a guess as to when or if prices will go down?

Checking the seat map for a flight is one of the worst possible ways of judging how many bookings the airline has taken for a flight and how many cheap tickets the airline has sold or might sell.

 

The only safe approach to take (unless you know a particular airline's business practices very well and there is a consistent pattern to them) is to buy the ticket when the price looks good to you. Otherwise, you might as treat the whole world as a casino.

[eandj]

I would book now. The airlines are raising prices every day due to fuel sur charges. Since the nonstop is a must for you, don't wait any longer.

[cruisinjerseygirl]

Someone on these boards told me of a site called yapta.com it's great! I have been using it for a few days to watch our flights and as soon as there is a rise or it goes down we get an email alert. Also if you book it and then you keep it on their tracker system after it is booked it will let you know if you are eligible for any refunds. Last week I didn't take a chance at a good price and didn't want to wait much longer so I just ended up booking at the higher price but have it in the tracker and hope that we will be eligible for a refund on something. As well I am tracking our airfare to California for next year and thus far it has gone down twice and up once and it has let me know each time. Check that out it might help and you won't have to go to the site at random times it will automatically let you know.

[FlyerTalker]

Ditto on Greatam and Globaliser's comments. As for the price, it heavily depends on the dates you are traveling. I punched in some 8 day trips for random dates in late May and got pricing under a thousand dollars, but with routings through Chicago and Madrid on the outbound and Madrid and Miami on the return - Iberia tickets, with AA flights within the USA. US non-stops are running over $1200. So you have to ask yourself what your priorities are - non-stop, airline choice, price, convenience??

 

Specific dates always help when asking about fares, routings and availability.

[Pika8347]

Checking the seat map for a flight is one of the worst possible ways of judging how many bookings the airline has taken for a flight and how many cheap tickets the airline has sold or might sell.

 

The only safe approach to take (unless you know a particular airline's business practices very well and there is a consistent pattern to them) is to buy the ticket when the price looks good to you. Otherwise, you might as treat the whole world as a casino.

 

Great Advice Globaliser! Funny though, we have cruise booked for 3/7/o8 and I've yet to finalize our air! I suppose I subscribe to casino philosophy.

[fti]

That is not a bad price but USAirways usually starts their "summer" fares later than many airlines - I see one fare of theirs from Philly to Barcelona that doesn't start high season prices until May 26. My guess is you are departing on/after May 26. If you can depart by 25 May the fare might be significantly less.

 

You also might consider checking with travel agents that use consolidators. Though there is definitely disagreement on this issue among posters on this board, I book hundreds of tickets a year using consolidators for international flights for those in our organizations and sometimes save hundreds of dollars per ticket. The reason I say through a travel agent is that many consolidators only deal with travel agents - it is cheaper, easier and far less time-consuming for them than dealing with the public. Many international consolidator tickets are changeable (for a fee), even "endorsable" in airline lingo (able to be used by other airlines). Just know the rules before you buy.

 

John

[lmaccaro]

Have you tried Farecast.com yet? It will use some math to predict if fares are going to increase or decrease, as well as show you when/where the best time to travel is.

[bubbie617]

Farecast was a good suggestion, but it only seems to to US cities, not international. Thanks though. I'll keep it in mind for the future.

[Capsu78]

I think I understand everyones readings of the tea leaves.

 

I was just wondering if the EU Open Skies due to take effect in March would shake up the dice at all?

 

http://www.btnmag.com/businesstravelnews/headlines/frontpage_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003565621

 

My guess is no, but interested for other thoughts.

[Globaliser]

I was just wondering if the EU Open Skies due to take effect in March would shake up the dice at all?

 

http://www.btnmag.com/businesstravelnews/headlines/frontpage_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003565621

 

My guess is no, but interested for other thoughts.

Not quickly. Low fares require lots of additional flights. They are hard to add, because Heathrow is full and quite a lot of trickery and money is required to get slots. And the airlines are not going to just add additional flights to London now that they have access to Heathrow; rather, they're moving flights from Gatwick to Heathrow. Because Heathrow is a more popular destination, that puts upward pressure on fares that, in part, will balance the downward pressure from any increase in the total number of flights.

[mlparker]

Just booked through Iberia for $850 RT for mid-June. BTW, I did not find this fare through any of the search sites, but through a post on a board that said to go directly to Iberia's site. Sure enough, there it was! In past years the airfare specials have come out in Jan/Feb; however, I think that this is a good fare this year. I may find it lower next month, but I may not. I contacted 800flyeurope and usually they're able to beat another fare but in this case they couldn't, so again I figured that this was a good sign. So, be sure to search some individual sites, rather than just relying on the travel search engines. Evidently they miss some good deals. Good luck!

[Capsu78]

Mlp,

Just curious... Is that $850 total out the door, or before the taxes and fees?

[fbgd]

Would it be out of line to suggest the regular travelers amongst us put together a sticky on 'When is the best time to buy for my cruise to XXXX?'

 

It seems we have a high proportion of these types of questions and it is pretty much the same old (but informative) answers each time from the same contributors. Sounds like an ideal situation for a sticky.

 

Anyone?

[greatam]

Would it be out of line to suggest the regular travelers amongst us put together a sticky on 'When is the best time to buy for my cruise to XXXX?'

 

It seems we have a high proportion of these types of questions and it is pretty much the same old (but informative) answers each time from the same contributors. Sounds like an ideal situation for a sticky.

 

Anyone?

 

Sounds like someone is volunteering to start the effort. I'm not sure that will stop the repetitive questions, however. There are still frequent "cruise air" questions, with the same answers given.

 

And it seems to me that we need to put together something to REALLY explain how some of these discounter sites work and the problems that CAN be encountered.

 

Now the question: How do we do it???

[greatam]

dup post

[fbgd]

Now the question: How do we do it???

 

I was thinking maybe divide it up into sections.

 

-General Intro

-How to know what is a good fare

-Getting international tickets

-Getting domestic tickets

-Using frequent flyer miles

 

Some might have suggestions for other sections but I'll be happy to do the frequent flyer miles one.

[mlparker]

In answer to Capsu, it was $850 total for a RT ticket, Boston-Rome, for June 14, with return on June 28. This means that it's worth your while to keep track of individual airline's website and their quotes, because they don't always show up on the other ones, i.e. Orbitz, Kayak. I wouldn't have found it if I hadn't looked directly at Iberia's site. Good luck! Melanie

[Capsu78]

MLP,

Thanks! I just happened to be running scenarios when you responded. My mid july scenario through Iberia was $2000 per ticket (!) so I don't feel as badly as when I first read your post. (Granted, we are open jawed and coming from Chicago). We have just booked through AA for the times, connections and dates for a family of 6 that best meet our needs, so I have to rationalize this purchase being more expensive than I would have liked... The price is still higher today than last Friday when we purchased.

 

I would have liked being around $1000 per, so you should be real pleased with your fare. This being my 5th trip across the pond in 5 years, I just don't get the sense prices will drop heavily short of a major event we don't want anyway.

[karle]

Hi, is that a nonstop flight? If it is, what a great price. And you got that directly from IBERIAS website?

[mlparker]

Not a non-stop on the way there, but it is a non-stop on the way back. Yes, I did find it through Iberias site directly. Good luck!