RCL Stock Owner

[yogimax]

I feel incredibly fortunate that CC helped me buy the stock back when it was in the teens. :D

 

Wow! Good for you. That would go back to at least 2003!

 

But what about those who read CC and, as a result, bought in the 40s or even the 50s?

[cruisinMike]

I feel incredibly fortunate that CC helped me buy the stock back when it was in the teens. :D

 

Yes that is nice but nothing says it can't return there and knowing when to sell is the most important thing.

 

As an example, let's say RCI's pps is at 30 today. You own 100 shares and you have two cruises booked between now and a year from now which give you $200 OBC. However one year from now the stock is selling for $20.

 

Doing the math, you lost $1000 to save $200. This is exactly what some folks have done by buying in the high 30s and in the 40s over the last year. In your case, you have already lost that gain that you could have cashed out in the 40s and been ahead, much more ahead then the OBC. It would have cost you much less to buy again now around 30.

 

Now no one has a crystal ball but what you can have is a selling price both from a profit perspective and a loss. In other words, if I bought at $30, I might have a sell price at $27 (10% max loss) or at $39 (30% gain). When I hit my number I make the move. Then I look for an appropriate buy-in again.

 

If you're just buying for the OBC, it is not logical.

[Dick in Falls Church]

If you think the stock is about as low as it will go, and you have 100 shares for which you can show a loss (for tax purposes), but you have a cruise coming up soon:

 

Buy another 100 shares. Hold both for 31 days. Then sell the first batch. Hopefully, it will have recovered a bit, but you still get the writeoff

[cruisinMike]

If you think the stock is about as low as it will go, and you have 100 shares for which you can show a loss (for tax purposes), but you have a cruise coming up soon:

 

Buy another 100 shares. Hold both for 31 days. Then sell the first batch. Hopefully, it will have recovered a bit, but you still get the writeoff

 

You got me here. Why buy another 100 shares. If you're inclined to hold, just hold (save the commission). You're strategy, speculating by averaging down has hurt more poeple then helped and the term you're talking about, 31 days, is highly speculative. There is no guarantee it goes up and you might end up with 200 shares under water.

[pmfan]

Lots of good info. in this thread. Thanks.:)

[yogimax]

You got me here. Why buy another 100 shares. If you're inclined to hold, just hold (save the commission). You're strategy, speculating by averaging down has hurt more poeple then helped and the term you're talking about, 31 days, is highly speculative. There is no guarantee it goes up and you might end up with 200 shares under water.

 

The key here is that the post said something to the effect, "If you think it is as low as it can go..." The strategy is risky but would win in a situation where the stock rises over the 31 day period.

 

The 31 days, of course, are necessary to avoid the "wash sale" rule for tax purposes. If everything worked out, you would have a tax loss from the sale of the original stock at a loss, but a monetary gain from the increase in price over the 31 days.

 

Nice thread here!

[cruisinMike]

The key here is that the post said something to the effect, "If you think it is as low as it can go..." The strategy is risky but would win in a situation where the stock rises over the 31 day period.

 

The 31 days, of course, are necessary to avoid the "wash sale" rule for tax purposes. If everything worked out, you would have a tax loss from the sale of the original stock at a loss, but a monetary gain from the increase in price over the 31 days.

 

Nice thread here!

 

yogimax, yes I understood the message. Regardless, the 31 day window is way to small to speculate like that (average down). Heck I can believe all I want it will go up, but I better be looking for a longer trend. I couldn't imagine what would posses me to specualte on that short of term, especially these companies. Even if one expected a good quarter report, the upward trend is usually before the news following a sell on the news.

 

One hit of unexpected news that isn't favorable within that 31 days will put you in deep trouble. If one is to average down, they should over a much longer term or they may find themselves, as many did a few years back, chasing bad money with good.

 

Again JMHO, but if someone bought the stock in the 40s for onboard credit (which is a mistake IMO) and then want to average down, they better be thinking long term, not short.

[xpcdoojk]

Me thinks too many people watch Jim Kramer these days, and everyone is telling everyone who gives a crap how smart they are. :rolleyes:

 

Those who think they can predict any market are fooling themselves. Obviously trends exist, but predicting the moment of those turns is the reason why even really smart people can lose money in the market. However, over the long run the market goes up, those who put all of their eggs in a single basket or a single strategy are doomed to suffer dissappointments.

 

So keep telling yourself how you have it all figured out, and still nobody really cares.:D

 

jc

[Dr_DNA]

Me thinks too many people watch Jim Kramer these days, and everyone is telling everyone who gives a crap how smart they are. :rolleyes:

 

Those who think they can predict any market are fooling themselves. Obviously trends exist, but predicting the moment of those turns is the reason why even really smart people can lose money in the market. However, over the long run the market goes up, those who put all of their eggs in a single basket or a single strategy are doomed to suffer dissappointments.

 

So keep telling yourself how you have it all figured out, and still nobody really cares.:D

 

jc

 

I've got it all figured out: Diversify, diversify, diversify and when you're done with that, diversify a bit more. :D

[cruisinMike]

Me thinks too many people watch Jim Kramer these days, and everyone is telling everyone who gives a crap how smart they are. :rolleyes:

 

Those who think they can predict any market are fooling themselves. Obviously trends exist, but predicting the moment of those turns is the reason why even really smart people can lose money in the market. However, over the long run the market goes up, those who put all of their eggs in a single basket or a single strategy are doomed to suffer dissappointments.

 

So keep telling yourself how you have it all figured out, and still nobody really cares.:D

 

jc

 

Who's Jim Kramer. Thanks for reinforcing what I said. Another great positive post.

[yogimax]

Who's Jim Kramer.

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Cramer

 

A little trivia... I do believe that Cramer's roommate in College was Elliott Spitzer. Just a bit of useless trivia:)

[cruisinMike]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Cramer

 

A little trivia... I do believe that Cramer's roommate in College was Elliott Spitzer. Just a bit of useless trivia:)

 

 

Thanks Yogimax but it was a play on the last name....Kramer vs. Cramer. It seems as if the person who didn't want anyone to discuss the fuel surcharge now does not want us discussing if putting money in RCI stock for OBC is a wise thing or not. I forgot that this person was appointed board police to monitor what can and can't be discussed.

[xpcdoojk]

Actually, it was the tone of the posts that caused me to post. Sorry to say you appear to be tone deaf. Post whatever you like. It is all good. I believe in free expression of ideas. Something that you seem to not like because everytime someone contradicts you, you seem to call them a troll.

 

Since you have all of the answers it is obvious you are doing the forum a great service every time you post!:D

 

I think the OBC is a great bonus feature of ownership of the stock. I wish my other stock investments gave me a perk that good.

 

Random walk theory.... learn it, understand it, and move along.:D

 

jc:D

[cruisinMike]

Actually, it was the tone of the posts that caused me to post. Sorry to say you appear to be tone deaf. Post whatever you like. It is all good. I believe in free expression of ideas. Something that you seem to not like because everytime someone contradicts you, you seem to call them a troll.

 

Since you have all of the answers it is obvious you are doing the forum a great service every time you post!:D

 

I think the OBC is a great bonus feature of ownership of the stock. I wish my other stock investments gave me a perk that good.

 

Random walk theory.... learn it, understand it, and move along.:D

 

jc:D

 

Let's see if you're as smart as you were on price discrimination, scientific method and oh yes, using the AG to assist in the fuel surcharge.

 

Which part of my opinions of investing in RCI do you disagree with. That would mean you would have to become tone deaf and read and comprehend the post. I'd be willing to discuss this with you if you have an opinion on the subject. Would you like to stay to this topic or continue to be personal. I feel like I have a groupie.

[Gonzo70]

I've got it all figured out: Diversify, diversify, diversify and when you're done with that, diversify a bit more. :D

 

I have a third of my nest egg in Royal Caribbean, a third in Carnival, and a third in Disney. Am I diversified? ;)

[Gonzo70]

Nice run for the stock today (up nearly 8%), but IMHO it hasn't bottomed yet.

[xpcdoojk]

The problem with your opinions is that they are really not very interesting. This despite the assuredness in which they are shared.

 

We can analyze this over and over again, which we have done over the years in this forum. I think everything of interest has been previously posted. Any stock investment is subject to the market, and it can go up or down. A single investment can increase beyond 30%. A single investment can become practically worthless. Anyone investing in the market should be aware of this. If we use your example $30 a share investment. It costs $3000. I can book an inside cruise on my next cruise or I can book a suite. By the simple act of booking a cabin different than what I might normally book I could easily have enough money saved that I can buy the $3000 worth of stock. In many people's portfolio $3000 is trivial. In fact many people who cruise drop that $3000 shopping in a jewelry store in St Thomas. Clearly a worse investment than buying cruiseline stock. Added into a diversified portfolio of dozens of other assets means for a person that likes to cruise that the purchase of stock for the OBC is a no brainer. Expending the energy educating the ignorant like you love to do is wasted energy. The $3000 could become $2000 tomorrow, but it could be $6000 2 years from now. You do not know the future nor do I. The reality is all knowledge of the stock is reflected into the price it is selling at today. Insider trading is a target for the beloved AG. Churning your portfolio is great for your broker and your blood pressure.:D

 

jc

[cruisinMike]

The problem with your opinions is that they are really not very interesting. This despite the assuredness in which they are shared.

 

We can analyze this over and over again, which we have done over the years in this forum. I think everything of interest has been previously posted. Any stock investment is subject to the market, and it can go up or down. A single investment can increase beyond 30%. A single investment can become practically worthless. Anyone investing in the market should be aware of this. If we use your example $30 a share investment. It costs $3000. I can book an inside cruise on my next cruise or I can book a suite. By the simple act of booking a cabin different than what I might normally book I could easily have enough money saved that I can buy the $3000 worth of stock. In many people's portfolio $3000 is trivial. In fact many people who cruise drop that $3000 shopping in a jewelry store in St Thomas. Clearly a worse investment than buying cruiseline stock. Added into a diversified portfolio of dozens of other assets means for a person that likes to cruise that the purchase of stock for the OBC is a no brainer. Expending the energy educating the ignorant like you love to do is wasted energy. The $3000 could become $2000 tomorrow, but it could be $6000 2 years from now. You do not know the future nor do I. The reality is all knowledge of the stock is reflected into the price it is selling at today. Insider trading is a target for the beloved AG. Churning your portfolio is great for your broker and your blood pressure.:D

 

jc

 

If my opinions are not that interesting why are you and you alone possed to continue to follow me on these boards and address them.

 

Again you haven't stuck to the issue. The issue was to buy RCI stock just for the OBC not for investing purposes or speculating. Some folks seem quite tranquil in regards to the fact they lost $1000 in value but got $100 obc. Or they may not understand. Don't worry about my wasted energy. Isn't it then true your energy is wasted addressing my wasted energy.

[Gonzo70]

Added into a diversified portfolio of dozens of other assets means for a person that likes to cruise that the purchase of stock for the OBC is a no brainer. jc

 

As has been pointed out before, you're argument is based on an assumption that may not be true. You are assuming that the Shareholder Benefit for OBC remains in its current form indefinitely. CCL has a similar benefit but the OBC is generaly not combinable with other forms of OBC. If RCL changes the policy to be similar to CCL's (which would not surprise me) the perk would become unusable for most cruisers (as there are so many other ways to get OBC without taking on the risk of stock ownership).

 

I certainly am not saying don't buy the stock; but I think it is bad advice to say it is a "no brainer" to buy the stock largely for the OBC if you plan to cruise a lot in the future. Why are you so sure they will not change the Shareholder OBC benefit to have similar terms as CCL's policy?

[Dr_DNA]

I have a third of my nest egg in Royal Caribbean, a third in Carnival, and a third in Disney. Am I diversified? ;)

 

Thanks for the chuckle amid the heated arguments flying about here. :D

 

And by the way, if you ask me, that strategy is hedging your bets. During the cola wars, I purchased both Coke and Pepsi thinking that if one bottoms out, that could mean that the other would really go sky high. Well, it turned out quite well the cola wars really spurred both on so it was win-win.

[xpcdoojk]

As has been pointed out before, you're argument is based on an assumption that may not be true. You are assuming that the Shareholder Benefit for OBC remains in its current form indefinitely. CCL has a similar benefit but the OBC is generaly not combinable with other forms of OBC. If RCL changes the policy to be similar to CCL's (which would not surprise me) the perk would become unusable for most cruisers (as there are so many other ways to get OBC without taking on the risk of stock ownership).

 

I certainly am not saying don't buy the stock; but I think it is bad advice to say it is a "no brainer" to buy the stock largely for the OBC if you plan to cruise a lot in the future. Why are you so sure they will not change the Shareholder OBC benefit to have similar terms as CCL's policy?

 

I made a very specific example and said for someone in that particular situation, then it was a no-brainer, please don't expand my post to say for everyone and every situation it is a no-brainer.

 

I will agree with you that the OBC may or may not continue in the future in its current form. However, you want to make a bet on the price of the stock the day after such a change and the price the day before?:D I would say the genius that declared to make such a change, will be facing very unhappy shareholders. The point is there is no simple right or wrong answer, and I, personally, think the OBC will continue despite fear and rumors to the contrary!

 

jc

[Gonzo70]

 

I will agree with you that the OBC may or may not continue in the future in its current form. However, you want to make a bet on the price of the stock the day after such a change and the price the day before?:D I would say the genius that declared to make such a change, will be facing very unhappy shareholders.

 

I would be surprised if it had much of a noticeable impact on the share price. It would not lead to any institutional selling. The stock trades a few million shares daily. A bunch of people selling 100 shares would be like a drop in the bucket. Some investors might even view such an annoucement as positive for the company's earnings. I bet that it is only a small percentage of the shareholders who hold RCL stock for the OBC perk so the news likely would be welcome to a majority of shareholders. The only unhappy ones would be the few who hold it primarily or solely for the OBC.

[cruisinMike]

I would be surprised if it had much of a noticeable impact on the share price. It would not lead to any institutional selling. The stock trades a few million shares daily. A bunch of people selling 100 shares would be like a drop in the bucket. Some investors might even view such an annoucement as positive for the company's earnings. I bet that it is only a small percentage of the shareholders who hold RCL stock for the OBC perk so the news likely would be welcome to a majority of shareholders. The only unhappy ones would be the few who hold it primarily or solely for the OBC.

 

Gonzo70 I would have said the same but I figured it might fall on deaf ears so I waited. The fact is, there are over 213 million shares outstanding and about 2.4 million or so trade on an average day. I don't know the % of shareholders that only hold for OBC but I don't believe the mom and pop holders of 100 shares will have that kind of an impact either.

[xpcdoojk]

You are probably right, that the institutions would far outweigh the individual shareholders, but those shareholders tend to be a lot like fuel surcharge advocates and they will raise holy heck in this forum and in shareholder meetings and on the phone with poor customer service employees. Get my point.:D One of my all-time favorite cranks, Seymour, will probably sue RCI to make them continue offering the OBC. You two would love him. You have a lot in common.

 

I give you credit for one thing you guys sure do love nits.:D

 

jc

[BILL-WI]

Gonzo70 I would have said the same but I figured it might fall on deaf ears so I waited. The fact is, there are over 213 million shares outstanding and about 2.4 million or so trade on an average day. I don't know the % of shareholders that only hold for OBC but I don't believe the mom and pop holders of 100 shares will have that kind of an impact either.

 

I am off topic, but a few other things on this thread are so...:rolleyes:

 

Mike, we met on the Enchantment in September...

 

Have a great Canal cruise! Good luck in the casino!

 

ENJOY!

 

BILL