Carnival Delaying New Ship Orders For US Brands "Indefinitely"

[flygrass]

Carnival Delaying New Ship Orders For US Brands "Indefinitely"

 

that is the headline on cruisenews this morning, Unfortunately

I am not a subcriber so I cant get the whole story so I guess Im hoping one of you guys out there might ?????:rolleyes:

[negc]

Carnival Corp just announced a 1st quarter loss in revenue and Mickey Arison is quoted as indicating that all new build plans are on hold indefinitely. He was also critical of Royal Caribbean's plans for building more ships claiming that he believes that their financial projections are too optimistic. Some time ago they put their plans to build a megaship that would rival RCI's Genesis project on "the back shelf". Looks like the recession and the rapidly rising fuel costs may impact the cruise industry. The chief executive of another, smaller cruise line, was recently quoted as saying that he is glad that his line does not have any new inventory coming this year.:rolleyes:

[MrPete]

Did RCCL begin building that behemouth yet?

 

Might have been the wrong time for it, with this looming recession and fuel fears, not to mention a lot of people say they won't sail something that size. :eek:

[LHP]

Did RCCL begin building that behemouth yet?

 

Might have been the wrong time for it, with this looming recession and fuel fears, not to mention a lot of people say they won't sail something that size. :eek:

 

Yes, they have laid the keel "something or other". Placing the "coins" or something like that for good luck. It will be 220,000 tons and carry 5,000 passengers.

 

I will see if I can find the article and link it.

 

Here it is: Autumn 2009 delivery date

http://www.worldcruise-network.com/features/feature949/

[KatSt]

Carnival Corp just announced a 1st quarter loss in revenue and Mickey Arison is quoted as indicating that all new build plans are on hold indefinitely. He was also critical of Royal Caribbean's plans for building more ships claiming that he believes that their financial projections are too optimistic. Some time ago they put their plans to build a megaship that would rival RCI's Genesis project on "the back shelf". Looks like the recession and the rapidly rising fuel costs may impact the cruise industry. The chief executive of another, smaller cruise line, was recently quoted as saying that he is glad that his line does not have any new inventory coming this year.:rolleyes:

Does this mean the Carnival Dream is on hold? It was supposed to launch next year and I would have thought they'd already started working on her.

[*Mach*]

Does this mean the Carnival Dream is on hold? It was supposed to launch next year and I would have thought they'd already started working on her.

 

 

I suspect that the Dream is too far along to shut down... now, the Magic might be a different question...

I've often wondered how tough it's going to be for RCCL to fill that huge vessel... 5400 passengers... geez...

I'm betting the inaugural sailing will be full but beyond that she'll go begging for passengers... Also, what does a ship of that size do to other vessels in their line? One might easily expect one or perhaps two RCCL vessels pulling out of nearby ports as the Genesis, or whatever it'll be called, eats up the market...

[VolzCruiser]

I was reading the article on Lloyd's list about this and not sure if Carnival Dream and Carnival Magic would be put on hold or not. Maybe someone else can read it and come to a conclusion.

 

 

http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/news/viewArticle.htm?articleId=20017516289

[firefly333]

I suspect that the Dream is too far along to shut down... now, the Magic might be a different question...

 

I've often wondered how tough it's going to be for RCCL to fill that huge vessel... 5400 passengers... geez...

 

I'm betting the inaugural sailing will be full but beyond that she'll go begging for passengers... Also, what does a ship of that size do to other vessels in their line? One might easily expect one or perhaps two RCCL vessels pulling out of nearby ports as the Genesis, or whatever it'll be called, eats up the market...

 

I think RCL was getting a little too high in their pricing over Carnival?? those big balcony cabins didnt sell so well on Voyager out of Galveston for my cruise and the D1/D2 were marked down to $869 and $889 since Iv been watching. They havent been able to sell those balconies even at that price. Those are the bigger balconies, equivalent to a 9A on Carnival. I guess Im surprised they cant sell them at that price. RCL might need to drop their prices closer to Carnivals. But then they have always started high and then drop last minute, so maybe it works for them.

 

A 5,000 passenger ship....yikes, you really could get lost on it.

[LHP]

I am guessing the Dream and Magic are ok....however, future builds for all the Carnival Corp ships may be "in the air".

 

I don't know what Cunard, Princess or the other sister cruise lines have in the pipeline.

[MrShake]

IMHO, they keep using the term Newbuild Orders. My guess is that it applies only to ships not already started.

[Mikel1733]

This might mean a longer life cycle for ships like the Holiday.

[big_duck]

I am guessing the Dream and Magic are ok....however, future builds for all the Carnival Corp ships may be "in the air".

 

I don't know what Cunard, Princess or the other sister cruise lines have in the pipeline.

 

Me too, the orders are already in, so pulling out would be costly plus damage Carnivals relationship with Fincantari.

[*Mach*]

I am guessing the Dream and Magic are ok....however, future builds for all the Carnival Corp ships may be "in the air".

 

I don't know what Cunard, Princess or the other sister cruise lines have in the pipeline.

 

 

Cunard has the Queen Elizabeth in the pipeline... I'm thinking they've already begun laying the keel for her so I'm sure she's safe... Not sure at all about Princess...

[maxamuus]

My guess would also be that the Dream and Magic will be built and delivered.

 

The dollars rapid decline against the Euro has only been really declining rapidly for the last 8 months or so. So if those ships were ordered finananced back then they have a HUGE savings over todays prices so Carnival would be crazy to cancel them.

[negc]

I believe that the "indefinite hold" only applies to future ships and not those already contracted for. The financial implications of cancelling already signed contracts would be more costly than proceeding with them.

As far as RCI is concerned I don't think that they will have any problem filling those ships for quite a while. Too many people place a high priority on sailing the newest and largest ships, and how often do we read of someone wondering if they should book one ship over another because one, that may have been introduced only three or four years ago, might be "old"?:rolleyes: What might be more of a problem for RCI is the effect that these new ships will have on bookings of the "older and smaller" ships in their fleet. If we can assume that the numbers of first time cruisers will not continue to grow to the degree that they have in the past, the pool from which they draw their guests may not be sufficient to allow all of their ships to sail at or near capacity without making significant price reductions.

Perhaps this latest sign of Carnival's new conservative philosophy and their less than thrilling financial performance in the 1st quarter also explains their unwillingness to submit to the Florida AG's demands regarding the fuel surcharge issue. Not a lot of good news coming out of Carnival HQ of late. Maybe they can convince Bob Dickenson to come back and right the ship.;)

[maxamuus]

This might mean a longer life cycle for ships like the Holiday.

 

I think quite the opposite is true. If we are truly headed into a recession a lot less people will be cruising then in the boom years. This will result in over-capacity in the industry which will drive down prices. Only way to right the market will be to scrap ships and guess who is the first to go....

[big_duck]

Maybe they can convince Bob Dickenson to come back and right the ship.;)

 

Bob Dickinson never ran Carnival Corp only Carnival Cruise Lines. The Corp. is Mickeys show.

 

UB is in fact still on the Board.

[dixiediva761]

I think RCL was getting a little too high in their pricing over Carnival?? those big balcony cabins didnt sell so well on Voyager out of Galveston for my cruise and the D1/D2 were marked down to $869 and $889 since Iv been watching. They havent been able to sell those balconies even at that price. Those are the bigger balconies, equivalent to a 9A on Carnival. I guess Im surprised they cant sell them at that price. RCL might need to drop their prices closer to Carnivals. But then they have always started high and then drop last minute, so maybe it works for them.

 

A 5,000 passenger ship....yikes, you really could get lost on it.

 

I agree. I think RCL fares have gotten too high. It is almost 2-300 pp more than others for the times we have shopped. The few things they offer that we prefer are not worth the extra money, Carnival does just fine by us. We also do not like the big behomoth ships expecially the promenade aspect, we dont feel like we are on a cruise at all. If you cant sit and see the water and have a drink inside it is like being in any ole/bar restaurant. I can't imagine being on a ship that holds 5000 people as it seems the only thing expanded is amounts of cabins not restaurant/buffet/pool space so the amount of people shoved in the space is worse. We wont be going on any Genesis anything. :(

[cruisinjerseygirl]

This makes a lot of sense to me....it seems like everyone is starting to buckle down and to be safe they should. What's the worst thing that could happen if they don't and there recession doesn't happen as everyone thinks it will? They won't have the newest ship? They will have their money in their pockets though and when the time comes they will be ok. I must say it's exciting and nice to know about the new ships and have the options but for me I wouldn't sail the newest ship immediately as it's more expensive for me...I can wait a little bit and pay less. As for this ginormous ship that RCCL is coming up with...in all honesty, I think that the size of the Liberty is more than enough for me and I am content with the smaller ships so what is the NEED for something SO big? It doesn't draw me in at all really, maybe a few years ago before I started cruising but not now. Also I agree 150% with the pricing of sailing RCCL. They were always just a little higher than Carnival and about the same as NCL. From what I have noticed recently is that if I were to compare the three from most expensive to least expensive it would go like this RCCL, NCL, CCL...so if I were to go elsewhere I would probably try NCL for pricing. I just don't feel as though I need to pay extra because some people want to bowl, surf, ice skate, or rock climb on their cruise...I know I won't be doing those things so no point in spending the extra money. Granted I would like to try them but I am not going to pay those prices.

[negc]

I agree. I think RCL fares have gotten too high. It is almost 2-300 pp more than others for the times we have shopped. The few things they offer that we prefer are not worth the extra money, Carnival does just fine by us. We also do not like the big behomoth ships expecially the promenade aspect, we dont feel like we are on a cruise at all. If you cant sit and see the water and have a drink inside it is like being in any ole/bar restaurant. I can't imagine being on a ship that holds 5000 people as it seems the only thing expanded is amounts of cabins not restaurant/buffet/pool space so the amount of people shoved in the space is worse. We wont be going on any Genesis anything. :(

 

While you and a lot of people feel that RCI's prices are too high, the fact that they seem to be sailing with passenger loads at or near capacity would indicate that there are enough people who are willing to pay those prices. The law of supply and demand hasn't been suspended and as long as there are a sufficient number of people willing to pay those "high" prices, don't expect to see the prices come down. Rest assured that Carnival isn't setting its prices lower as a favor to its fans. If they thought that they could fill their ships at higher prices, that is what they would charge.:rolleyes:

 

Since very few details other than the number of passengers and crew that it will hold, only time will tell whether your prediction that there will not be expanded restaurant/buffet/pool space as part of Genesis' design is accurate.

Bob Dickinson may not have run Carnival Corporation but he and Vicki Freed were certainly the face of Carnival Cruise Lines, and helped Mickey turn Carnival Cruise Lines and Carnival Corp into a major player in the cruise industry. The current CEO, Gerry Cahill seems to be determined to erase all traces of Bob and Vicki's influences and let the bean counters run the show. Maybe he is just reflecting Mickey's attitudes but there does seem to be a significant change in Carnival's operating philosophy.:)

[Cruzman]

While you and a lot of people feel that RCI's prices are too high, the fact that they seem to be sailing with passenger loads at or near capacity would indicate that there are enough people who are willing to pay those prices. The law of supply and demand hasn't been suspended and as long as there are a sufficient number of people willing to pay those "high" prices, don't expect to see the prices come down. Rest assured that Carnival isn't setting its prices lower as a favor to its fans. If they thought that they could fill their ships at higher prices, that is what they would charge.:rolleyes:

 

Since very few details other than the number of passengers and crew that it will hold, only time will tell whether your prediction that there will not be expanded restaurant/buffet/pool space as part of Genesis' design is accurate.

Bob Dickinson may not have run Carnival Corporation but he and Vicki Freed were certainly the face of Carnival Cruise Lines, and helped Mickey turn Carnival Cruise Lines and Carnival Corp into a major player in the cruise industry. The current CEO, Gerry Cahill seems to be determined to erase all traces of Bob and Vicki's influences and let the bean counters run the show. Maybe he is just reflecting Mickey's attitudes but there does seem to be a significant change in Carnival's operating philosophy.:)

 

Heck, Disney fills their ships at 3 times the price. Question is, how long can it last as anticipated demand declines. I recall what happened in the months after 9/11. The travel industry, cruise lines included, was devastated. Downward pressure on pricing was unreal. I recall booking a cruise on RCCI in April 2003 (OV cabin) for under $1000 total for 2 people.

[flygrass]

Just Wanted To Let You Guys That Posted The Info That You Knew And I Didnt,,,, Thanks.

I Didnt Want You To Think I Put It Up There And Didnt Even Come Back To Check.

Im More Of A Lurker Than A Poster, I Hang At The Back Of The Crowed But When I Have Something To Say I Jump Up On The Bar With Drink In Hand And Let It Be Known.

Thanks Again And Have A Great Weekend

[negc]

Heck, Disney fills their ships at 3 times the price. Question is, how long can it last as anticipated demand declines. I recall what happened in the months after 9/11. The travel industry, cruise lines included, was devastated. Downward pressure on pricing was unreal. I recall booking a cruise on RCCI in April 2003 (OV cabin) for under $1000 total for 2 people.

And that is exactly how supply and demand works. My point is that as long as the demand is there, cruiselines will charge whatever the market will bear. If Carnival's pricing is lower, they must have decided that lower prices are necessary if they want to fill their ships and RCI apparently feels that, so far at least, they can charge more for their cruises and still attract a sufficient number of passengers. If demand declines, obviously prices will follow suit, but even after the devastation of 9/11, the cruise industry and pretty much the rest of the travel industry rebounded in relatively short order and in recent years the number of cruisers has risen exponentially.:)

Based on their most recent actions, it would appear that Carnival's view of the future is more pessimistic (some might say more realistic) than RCI's but only time will tell which is closer to being correct.