RCL Stock

[kruz]

For anyone interested the stock is just a little above $32.00...

Good time to buy.

[Gonzo70]

For anyone interested the stock is just a little above $32.00...

Good time to buy.

 

What makes you think it is a good time to buy?!? I wouldn't touch it here.

[NiniB]

really... :eek: $32 a share is too high for me... :)

[yogimax]

Simply because the stock has gone down doesn't mean it's a "good time to buy."

[Gonzo70]

IMHO RCL will have to announce that they will not meet their estimated earnings for fiscal year 2008 (and possibly even guide lower for fiscal year 2009). Right now most analsysts following the stock have a strong buy or buy rating. If they do guide lower for '08 and/or '09 this will most likely cause the stock to go even significantly lower than where it is here and also likely will cause analyst downgrades likely resulting in even further declines. I think that the out of control fuel costs, increased food costs as a result of the fuel costs, and too many people sturggling financially will cause hardships to the cruise lines (especially with the size of some of the upcoming ships). RCL is more of a growth stock than CCL so they would be hurt by a slow down even more. So far they are handling the situation well, but there comes a limit as to how many costs you can cut and how much of increased fuel charge you can pass on to the consumer before they decide to vacation elsewhere. One also can not count on the OBC credit remaining in its current form long enough to make up the difference if you buy the stock here and the stock declines significantly further, and later the OBC is slashed or made less useful (i.e. not combinably with other OBC).

 

Perhaps I am wrong and RCL will soon leap back up to the 40s or at least remain stable in the 30s, but I personally feel a significant decline is much more likely.

[libertybelle41]

IMHO RCL will have to announce that they will not meet their estimated earnings for fiscal year 2008 (and possibly even guide lower for fiscal year 2009). Right now most analsysts following the stock have a strong buy or buy rating. If they do guide lower for '08 and/or '09 this will most likely cause the stock to go even significantly lower than where it is here and also likely will cause analyst downgrades likely resulting in even further declines. I think that the out of control fuel costs, increased food costs as a result of the fuel costs, and too many people sturggling financially will cause hardships to the cruise lines (especially with the size of some of the upcoming ships). RCL is more of a growth stock than CCL so they would be hurt by a slow down even more. So far they are handling the situation well, but there comes a limit as to how many costs you can cut and how much of increased fuel charge you can pass on to the consumer before they decide to vacation elsewhere. One also can not count on the OBC credit remaining in its current form long enough to make up the difference if you buy the stock here and the stock declines significantly further, and later the OBC is slashed or made less useful (i.e. not combinably with other OBC).

 

Perhaps I am wrong and RCL will soon leap back up to the 40s or at least remain stable in the 30s, but I personally feel a significant decline is much more likely.

 

 

 

Yeah, what he said...!!:D

[Captain Jake]

I'll probably die with it so the direction the stock goes means little.For a 3500 dollar investment (we bought it for 35 a share almost 2 years ago we've have received 500 dollars in onboard credits for 3 cruises and will receive 200 more for a cruise latter this year.That will be a 20% tax`free return in a little over 2 years.Not bad.In addition we get a small dividend .Beats a return on a muni bond.You have to cruise to make it pay,though----------BT

[shipshape sam]

I'll probably die with it so the direction the stock goes means little.For a 3500 dollar investment (we bought it for 35 a share almost 2 years ago we've have received 500 dollars in onboard credits for 3 cruises and will receive 200 more for a cruise latter this year.That will be a 20% tax`free return in a little over 2 years.Not bad.Beats a return on a muni bond.You have to cruise to make it pay,though----------BT

 

 

That is the critical issue! Use the stock to get OBC's. Then over time, your cost of the stock is less.

[yogimax]

That is the critical issue! Use the stock to get OBC's. Then over time, your cost of the stock is less.

 

Those who paid nearly $50 a share in 2005 might not be so happy!:rolleyes:

[Gonzo70]

That is the critical issue! Use the stock to get OBC's. Then over time, your cost of the stock is less.

 

Assuming the OBC perk does not change or get revoked. It is definitely a great perk, espcially for frequent cruisers but there is far from a guarantee that it will continue in its current form indefinitely. It is dangerous to buy the stock primarily for the purpose of expecting to make money via the OBC perk over the next several years. The stock may drop 25% further (or more) and the OBC perk disappear or become a lot less useful.

[Captain Jake]

Assuming the OBC perk does not change or get revoked. It is definitely a great perk, espcially for frequent cruisers but there is far from a guarantee that it will continue in its current form indefinitely. It is dangerous to buy the stock primarily for the purpose of expecting to make money via the OBC perk over the next several years. The stock may drop 25% further (or more) and the OBC perk disappear or become a lot less useful.

 

It may go up 25% or more.Your guess is as good as mine.Even it I'd paid 50 bucks I still wouldn't loose any sleepover it.My guess is most people have lost more on home equity over the last year than on a hundred shares of RCL stock.It all goes in cycles.For the small investment its far from a dangerous risk to take.Its not like I'm going to drop dead if they remove OBC and the stock drops to 10 bucks a share(both unlikely but I admit not impossible).I feel over time I'll probably get a better return than from any CD and if I don't,so what?

[yogimax]

 

Even it I'd paid 50 bucks I still wouldn't loose any sleepover it.

 

Yeah, but have to remember that there are people here filling their Listerine bottles with booze to save a few dollars. Losing a thousand bucks might make them a bit angry!:)

[Gonzo70]

Yeah, but have to remember that there are people here filling their Listerine bottles with booze to save a few dollars. Losing a thousand bucks might make them a bit angry!:)

 

lol, good point. :D

[pmfan]

Yeah, but have to remember that there are people here filling their Listerine bottles with booze to save a few dollars. Losing a thousand bucks might make them a bit angry!:)

HAHAHA, you think so?