Best time to book air fare.

[Jiminkcmo]

I'm so stressed out by all of this air fare, baggage fare, etc. etc.

 

Does anyone know whether it is cheaper to buy airfare during daylight hours or after dark?

 

In other words, is it best to book while the sun is shining or wait until after the sun goes down?

 

Does a full moon affect the prices I would get?

 

There are just so many things to worry about.

[Globaliser]

Does anyone know whether it is cheaper to buy airfare during daylight hours or after dark?

 

In other words, is it best to book while the sun is shining or wait until after the sun goes down?

 

Does a full moon affect the prices I would get?

Don't forget to check whether there is an "r" in the month. Although I think I can be confident about at least one thing: whether or not there's a "y" in the day of the week won't be an issue. :D

[officerswife]

Your not the only one!!!! The airfare is the only thing holding me up on booking a cruise for a family of 4 leaving in May.

I am so stressed and still have 7 months to go!!!

Don't know what to do. Do I book cruise now and worry about airfare later??

[FlyerTalker]

There are plenty of urban legends about when to buy airfare. That's what they are....urban legends. It is NOT the fares that are changing from hour to hour, but rather the availability in the various fare categories. That is a continual, dynamic process, so there is no "magic" time to buy your ticket. As demand changes, so does the availability.

 

As for the last poster....if you can't afford the cruise and airfare NOW, it is highly unlikely that your price will get better in the future. If you are betting on a significant drop, ask yourself how good you are at buying cattle futures??

 

I am not sure why the stress. There is a shirt at the local store. You like it. You look at the price and make a decision. Yes or no. Same thing with airline tickets....you either say yes or no. Same with gasoline. Same with food. Same with everything in a capitalistic system. If you are overwhelmed with too many choices, just figure out your priorities and deal with the subset. Think how you pared down the multiplicity of cruiselines, ships and itineraries. At some point, it all comes down to yes versus no. Make a decision and live with your choices.

[ginagirl]

Since US Air is the only nonstop from Phoenix to Fll, I booked the seats in June, as soon as I booked the January cruise. It cost us $445 PP, which is quite a huge increase from what had been only 4 months prior. Guess What---On July 4, they ran a 1 day special and the fare dropped to $325 PP. Do I have to tell you how sick I was. Of course, I called the airline and was told exactly what I knew I would be told. There is a $150 PP re-issue fee which would erode the discounted amount. So, we not only have very expensive tickets, but also have to pay for checked luggage, and even water. :eek: Not to anxious to book flights or even fly anymore.

[TERRIER1]

There are plenty of urban legends about when to buy airfare. That's what they are....urban legends. It is NOT the fares that are changing from hour to hour, but rather the availability in the various fare categories. That is a continual, dynamic process, so there is no "magic" time to buy your ticket. As demand changes, so does the availability.

 

Maybe you can explain the ups and downs of the airfare to me becuase i am baffled. I started checking direct flights from JFK to FCO and then return from IST to JFK as soon as the fares became available which was several weeks ago. The fare started at $2100 and dipped down to $1500 (I Booked) and has gone up in increments and is now $2,200. Does this mean that there are now less seats? Why was the fare so high initially when all the seats were available? I am confused.

[Jiminkcmo]

Globalizer:

 

Thanks for the additional information about the secret "r" code.

 

If there are 2 "r"s will the fare be 1/2 price?

 

I heard that if I book on a Thursday, I get a free cup of coffee on the flight.

 

That would sway my choice of airline.

 

So many things to consider.

 

I better take a valium.

[FlyerTalker]

Maybe you can explain the ups and downs of the airfare to me becuase i am baffled. I started checking direct flights from JFK to FCO and then return from IST to JFK as soon as the fares became available which was several weeks ago. The fare started at $2100 and dipped down to $1500 (I Booked) and has gone up in increments and is now $2,200. Does this mean that there are now less seats? Why was the fare so high initially when all the seats were available? I am confused.

 

OK....airlines have fares filed which list all of the various fare categories, along with the specific rules that go along with the fares. I'll give you some examples from JFK to FCO on DL only. I picked some random dates in June of next year (15th and 25th) for the outbound and return.

 

These are the various fares filed for this route (round trip) (not including taxes and fees):

 

UHXNR5 U 1020.00

LHXNR5 L 1170.00

KHXNR5 K 1320.00

QHXAB4 Q 1470.00

HHXAB3 H 1620.00

MAB2 M 1967.00

BAP1 B 2232.00

BEERT B 2438.00

IRLEIS I 3123.00

Y Y 3898.00

SLEIS30 S 3912.00

IRAP14 I 4254.00

DRAP14 D 5617.00

CR C 7823.00

JR J 7823.00

DRUS D 8024.00

IRUS I 8024.00

JRUS J 8024.00

C C 10910.00

J J 10910.00

 

Each of these fares has different rules, such as advance purchase, stay requirements, changeability and other factors. The fare name is the group of characters in the left. There is then a single letter, which indicates which inventory "bucket" the fare must be sold from. There must be availability in that bucket for the ticket to be sold at that price.

 

Now, going to a specific flight. Delta's non-stop is DL 148. On the 15th of June, availability in the various buckets is: J9 D9 S9 I9 Y9 B9 M9 H0 Q0 K0 L0 U0 T0. What this means is that DL has made available at least 9 seats in the buckets with a "9" next to them, and that there is no availability at all for the buckets with a "0" next to them. So, what this means is that even though DL offers a fare "UHXNR5" for $1020.00, they have not made any seats available at that rate. The only rate available for that date starts with M bucket, or the "MAB2" fare at $1967. You have to then factor in the rate for the return and what the availability is for that date/flight.

 

Interestingly, you can find "L" availability, but not on the non-stop. It is available on the AF codeshare to CDG, with a connection to FCO.

 

Delta, or any airline for that matter, does not necessarily load all seats into all buckets at the start of the schedule. Nor do they necessarily load into all buckets at any particular time. Sometimes, a bucket never receives inventory for a flight. Inventory allocation is a continuous process...with availability being shifted in response to purchasing decisions by very sophisticated algorithms.

 

What likely happened is that inventory was put into higher buckets at the start (to cater to those who absolutely needed to book at the first possible moment). Depending on demand, seats were put into lower fare buckets, thus the "fare drop" - though the fares didn't drop, they merely became available for the first time in the lower priced buckets. As those sold off, DL likely determined that it didn't need to replenish those lower buckets, and thus you have the situation today where the lowest non-stop availability on the 15th is in "M".

 

Remember, the airline uses inventory to maximize the return ("yield") for each flight that it operates. It doesn't need to offer lots of "cheap seats" during spring break to Florida destinations.....it does need to increase demand to Helsinki in February!! It's not that the prices keep changing, it's just that they use computer analysis to manage how much they sell at what price.

 

As for "Fare Sales".....sometimes, a new fare is loaded into the system, one that is lower than existing fares. There still needs to be availability before it becomes "real" to the purchasing public".

 

A bit lengthy, but I hope this helped to get some feel for what is happening out there.

[d&a Delaware]

Thanks, FlyerTalker for that (yes) lengthy explanation which, I must admit, I only understood about half of. It certainly confirms what I have been reading on these boards for a while now: that the fare pricing system is complex, algorithm driven, and hard to understand. So, back to one of the earlier points on this thread, what it boils down to is what I am willing to pay for a specific product (flight, class, time, etc). Once I decide that I am willing, then book it and don't look back. Maybe the price will drop below the rebooking fee penalty level, but these days probably not.

 

David

[Jiminkcmo]

FlyerTalker:

 

It appears as though you have a good handle on capacity management.

 

Maybe prior employment?

 

I'm glad you didn't get into nested inventory in your explanation, ie what NW uses.

 

That would have caused a lot more confusion.

 

<G> <G>

[deepnite10]

still far off is our flight s to and from Miami in jan..

 

already, i booked the flight s this past july..

[FlyerTalker]

It appears as though you have a good handle on capacity management. Maybe prior employment?

Nope, just travel a lot, and I decided that I really wanted to know what I was buying and how to maximize the bang for my travel buck. Not in the industry, so I don't have SABRE access, so Expert Flyer is my friend. (Though I still long for the old days of EasySabre). Personally, I think those guys in yield management must be gnomes living in dark caves that they only let out on rare occasions....or they got rejected for the new TV pilot "AIRLINE NUMB3RS".....where a brilliant mathematician each week figures out a new way to try to stave off financial collapse. :D

 

I'm glad you didn't get into nested inventory in your explanation, ie what NW uses. That would have caused a lot more confusion.

 

That's "Inventory and Pricing 301"....this was the intro 101 course...;)

[FlyerTalker]

Thanks, FlyerTalker for that (yes) lengthy explanation which, I must admit, I only understood about half of. It certainly confirms what I have been reading on these boards for a while now: that the fare pricing system is complex, algorithm driven, and hard to understand. So, back to one of the earlier points on this thread, what it boils down to is what I am willing to pay for a specific product (flight, class, time, etc). Once I decide that I am willing, then book it and don't look back. Maybe the price will drop below the rebooking fee penalty level, but these days probably not.

For a quick and dirty approach to air ticket purchases, you've got it. For those that want, or need, to delve deeper, there is a logic to it all -- you just have to ferret it out and learn a different way of thinking that makes it all a dynamic process rather than a static one (such as buying nails at a hardware store).

 

If you have any questions, or if I left you wondering, please feel free to follow up. Lots of elaboration was possible, but I didn't want to make it run into novella length.

[Jiminkcmo]

Nope, just travel a lot, and I decided that I really wanted to know what I was buying and how to maximize the bang for my travel buck. Not in the industry, so I don't have SABRE access, so Expert Flyer is my friend. (Though I still long for the old days of EasySabre). Personally, I think those guys in yield management must be gnomes living in dark caves that they only let out on rare occasions....or they got rejected for the new TV pilot "AIRLINE NUMB3RS".....where a brilliant mathematician each week figures out a new way to try to stave off financial collapse. :D

 

 

 

That's "Inventory and Pricing 301"....this was the intro 101 course...;)

 

I congratulate you on your desire to learn more about airline fares and pricing.

 

Not many people would take the time to try and understand it.

 

You are quite right about the yield management folks. They are a different breed and few and far apart. They talk a whole different language.

 

If the average "ticket buyer" thinks they can use any kind of linear logic to figure out air fares, they are sadly mistaken.

 

The best thing for them to do is just buy the ticket when the price looks good and affordable to them and then never again look at the fares.

 

The "fare worry" factor on this forum is enormous.

 

It makes interesting reading. <G>;)

 

Happy skies and keep flying.

 

Jim

[TERRIER1]

Flyer Taker - will you be my travel agent? (lol). Thank you so much. This airline business is complicated. All I know is that the ticket today is $750 greater than when I booked. Once again, thanks.

[awatt]

Flyer Talker- Now that I understand your Inventory 101 course, how do i use this info to improve my chances of getting the best fare?

[FlyerTalker]

Flyer Taker - will you be my travel agent?

 

I don't think I would get too much business -- I would be doing more educating than selling. For some reason, the words "Of course buy the cruiseline air...they'll take care of you" would just stick in my throat and I'd be making these unintelligible grunts....

 

Thank you so much. This airline business is complicated. All I know is that the ticket today is $750 greater than when I booked. Once again, thanks.

As often posted by many of the "regulars"....when you find a price you like - TAKE IT. Then don't look back. Hindsight is always 20/20.

 

Brings to mind an old Damon Runyon quote: "No one ever bet enough on a winning horse."

[FlyerTalker]

Flyer Talker- Now that I understand your Inventory 101 course, how do i use this info to improve my chances of getting the best fare?

Aha!!! That's the secret course only given after you wire transfer $10,000 to a Cayman Islands account.....:D

 

Seriously, this will not give you the magic key to getting "the best fare". (In fact, the only way to know what is the "best fare" is after the doors close and the flight departs, and you can look back at all the prices for the seats - too late for a purchase decision!!). What it can do is help you to understand why there are differences in fares between non-stops and connections, between different times of the flights, different dates and even why "fares" may change within the space of a few minutes. Why there is no magic time to buy a ticket, either "early" or "late" or whatever.

 

Services like Expert Flyer will show you all of the listed fares, so you have a starting point for knowing what different fare basis have been posted. With some inventory tools, you can get a feel for what is being made available for sale. Fare search engines, such as Kayak, FareCompare, FareCast and ITA can help you in your quest. But unless you have access to the secret (and they are assuredly guarded trade secrets) pricing/yield algorithms for each airline, you can only make the best guess at the time you are purchasing. For many, the level of research I do is overkill. For some, I'm an amateur.

 

If you know the general prices for tickets on a particular route, you have the first leg up. Start with overall research on the markets you fly -- check pricing over time or use a service like FareCompare to track historic rates. Know that prices can go down, but they can also go up. The overall inventory for any particular flight is fixed (the number of seats on the physical aircraft used), but the particular fare inventories are flexible - in both directions. If you see that low buckets have been "zeroed out" for a while and there is now inventory, take that as a sign to jump on a ticket before they go back to zero.

 

Mostly, know your own self-personality when it comes to purchasing decisions. How do you feel comfortable approaching the issue of buying a television? Computer? Shoes? Vacations? Work with that knowledge of self to help you be a better consumer.

[awatt]

Thank you very much!

[micruiser2002]

Flyertalk, Thanks so much for the info. I am a bit upset because just today I noticed a trip we were planning has now gone away. I am hoping it is what you said and they will then again release the cheap seats.

 

But I have a question if expertflyer shows a fare bucket available, is there a way to get it? Every search I try does not bring up that fare class. Thanks so much for the helpful information.

[TERRIER1]

Hi Flyertalk - I just checked my DL ticket and it was one of those UHXNR5 U for $1020.00. I guess I got the 2 tickets that they had available at 11:35 am on 7/22. When I entered the information into Yapta about an hour later the ticket was already up another $50. What did the airlines do before computers?

[Globaliser]

What did the airlines do before computers?

That was a long time ago! The airlines have almost always been leaders in the use of huge amounts of computing power. Without that, they would never have become as complex and efficient as they are.

[FlyerTalker]

But I have a question if expertflyer shows a fare bucket available, is there a way to get it? Every search I try does not bring up that fare class. Thanks so much for the helpful information.

Sometimes, there are factors such as "trip logic" and "nested inventory" that come into play with connections. Each segment shows availability in the low bucket, but you can't get it for the connection. Sometimes, the computer won't price out a complex inventory, and "burps". There may be other exclusions at work. And sometimes someone else beats you to the seats.

 

If I can't get an itinerary to price out online, I use the phone. I have as much info as possible and go in with the attitude of working WITH the agent. In the days of EasySabre, you could get straight to the back-end online....now, you have to work through front-end web systems that often make it tougher to get exactly what an agent can do.

 

I like to think of it this way....if there are seats showing in the buckets, there's a chance to get the better fares. If the flight is "zeroed out" except for Y and first class, I know that today isn't my day for purchasing.

 

Wish I could give you a way to "force" the system, but I can't give you one.

[FlyerTalker]

That was a long time ago! The airlines have almost always been leaders in the use of huge amounts of computing power. Without that, they would never have become as complex and efficient as they are.

 

And the winner of the "Truth through Cynicism Award" is........

[biker1972]

FlyerTalker, Interesting that you quote Runyan on horse race betting. The more bets placed on a horse to win, the lower the odds/payoff. Seems like a direct connection to flight pricing. Must be that some of the gnomes in the airlings backoffice worked at Del Mar before going to Atlanta or DFW. :)