Hurricane threat in October?

[vancom]

We are booked on AOS 10/9/05. Decided that while we are in St. Thomas we would take a 1/2 or full day 6-pack charter out to St. John. E-mailed a few, and two wrote back that October 10 (our arrival date) was full-on hurricane season with few boats in the water all around the island.

 

Dismayed is one way to put it...I know that hurricane season reaches into November but I guess I never condsidered the potential threat to 50 foot sailing vessels--

 

What IS the hurricane risk that time of year?? We are sailing the southern caribbean route, stopping in St. Thomas, St. Maarten, St. Lucia, Antigua and Barbados.

 

Vanessa

[cmjaffe]

September AND October is PRIME hurricane season in St. Thomas.

You'll still get the heavy rains up till almost Thanksgiving.

Carolyn

[springtxbill]

The storms can still be quite active in the Eastern islands but will probably curve off to the North and East before reaching the states. :)

[Coralc]

We are booked on Mariner Eastern, (St. Thomas, St. Marteen) 10/2. We fully recognize the threat of hurricanes, but that must mean that they pull the small boats out of the water altogether during Sept. and October, I wonder if the ferry still runs? :)

[VABeach]

If you watch the weather maps, you probably won't get a full blown hurricane after September (usually), but you might get a tropical storm or tropical depression, or just a lot of rain. You can go to www.accuweather.com to follow the storm patterns and get an idea of how they run.:)

[dolphincruiser404]

I think that the Floridians have learned that you just never know. Who can predict the weather. Who would have ever thought we would have had the devastating storms that we did this year! Good luck and I hope the weather holds out for you!

[Host Caroline]

There are lots of tours in the islands in the fall but not as many as in peak seaso which begins later after hurricane season (well in November actually).. harbor in St Thomas for example looks downright deserted in Sept. compared to January!

 

We were on "extended" Mariner sailing due to Hurr. Jeanne.. This was an overly active year but especially if you book between August and end of October you always run the risk of having itinerary altered, cruise length longer or shorter (as this past year) and travel disrupted.. that being said, '04 was a horrendous year and hopefully will NOT be repeated. You just have to be prepared to roll with the unpredictable (and no the cruise line will not compensate you if they alter itineraries on the full length cruise you booked -- it says so in all their literature but there was a lot of complaining about that this year and not just with RCI!)

[bUU]

I'd be far more concerned about August and September than October, though early October is clearly more risky than late October.

[Murphy]

It's all a crap shoot, but "typically" after Oct 1, you get more hurricanes that spin off the Mexican coast and head up toward Texas, than the ones that spin off Africa and cross the Caribbean. Therefore a Cozumel/Belize itinerary would be riskier in October than a FLL, St. Thomas, Eastern Caribbean. But, you can't predict the weather and the official "sesson starts June 1 and doesn't end until Nov 30.

[Lyncruiser]

We were very surprised this year when Hurricane Charley hit Orlando on August 13. We never thought we'd be in a hurricane in Orlando in the first half of August. We usually don't think of August as prime hurricane season (although I'm aware that Hurricane Season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30). October is risky, IMO. We've been in Orlando in mid-October and been brushed by a hurricane (not a direct hit like Charley was). Also, I recall a late hurricane in the Caribbean last November.

 

Upshot -- no guarantees. If you don't want to risk having your cruise affected by a hurricane, book December through May. And "affected" can mean alot of things -- delayed departure, extended time at sea (great unless you have to be back to work), complete change of itinerary, skipping ports, etc. Personally, I would not book anything in the Atlantic, the Pacific, or the Caribbean during Hurricane Season. Our recent experience with Hurricane Jeanne and a delayed Navigator departure with a complete change of itinerary was enough for me. Never again!