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On 3/27/2020 at 12:01 PM, clo said:

As someone here wrote, an MD I believe, there's no guarantee of a vaccine. Period. And what if COVID is more like the common cold for which there is no vaccine but with more dire consequences.

If there is no vaccine but recovery results in immunity, than in a few years it will mostly die out. With sporadic outbreaks every few years that mostly effect children born since the last outbreak, but for whom the virus is not particularly dangerous.

I don’t know if it is going up or down tomorrow, but I am confident it will be zero by this time next year.

14 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

Or asked another way would you cruise again knowing the Grand/Diamond/MS Zaandam

 

Yes, but it won’t be until https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. Is reporting new cases from yesterday worldwide is under 1000 and either declining or holding steady. 

I too remember flying before 9/11.  

I suspect that the short term impact to cruise ships will be much more severe than 9/11 to airlines.  But long term cruises won’t see as much in the way of permanent changes.

Short term - Airlines were shutdown for less than a week before resuming. Cruises may be shuttered for more than a year.

Long term - The risk of terrorism will never go away, so the 9/11 security measures will never go away.  At some point Covid-19 will be no bigger of a concern than the spanish flu, small pox, measles or the black plague.  (might take 5 years, but it will happen).  There maybe some permanent changes such as an increase in hand washing stations and closer monitoring of people suspected of being sick.  But I doubt there is a permanent doctors waiver for older folks or health testing before boarding. 

Chipmaster, You are being utterly unrealistic in your assessment we will be in the same situation as Italy in three weeks.

Best case it will take two weeks for the US death toll to reach 9000.  One week is more likely.

I thought all the cruise lines shut down two weeks ago?

6 minutes ago, drsel said:

Actually I was referring to the cruise ships

Yes, we knew that.  

7 minutes ago, CruiserBruce said:

Just saw a statement by Port of Seattle that the cruise season brings 900 million to the Washington state economy.

So less than 0.1% of the states total economy.  

6 minutes ago, pacruise804 said:

 

Unfortunately I think many who recently financed vehicles (depreciating asset) and are now not working/under stay at home orders are facing this very situation.

 

 

I would rather bail them out than the cruise lines.

14 minutes ago, K32682 said:

 

What was missing from 9/11 and 2008 was stigma that applied exclusively to cruise lines.  The images of the Diamond Princess won't die easily.   It's not news that cruise ships often facilitated the spread of viruses but COVID-19 takes it to a whole new level. 

Outside of CC I am not see any blame being directed specifically at cruise ships.  Universal opposition to bailing them out because they aren’t American companies, but no real stigma.  Diamond will be  forgotten quicker than Triumph. Problem is they are too over leveraged to withstand even a brief disruption.

Just now, cruisemom42 said:

 

Yes, and as of today the US now has the highest reported number of cases of COVID-19. 

Wow, this morning when I ran the numbers this morning  predicted we would pass Italy on Saturday and China on Tuesday. These numbers is significantly worse than my worse case predictions.

1 minute ago, irzero said:

The US market is out of control. Until we see 6 months of earnings reports we are in for a wild ride. The market will have to reflect fundamentals at some point. I wouldnt buy anything now nothing is what I'd consider to be cheap now given how little we know about the world economy.

The stimulus wont do anything to keep businesses from going under. The demand after all of this will be much lower which will reflect in more job losses and that is how a downturn starts.

20$ oil means nobody in US shale is going to be employed. Stimulus or not.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

I wouldn’t go quite that far.  Amazon’s 1st quarter’s earnings are going to beat December’s expectations.  Grocery stores, food companies, pharmaceutical, UPS, FedEx, Cable companies, companies that provide VPNs, telecommunications, netflix.  Say away from cruise lines, hotel chains, airlines.

Cash, even if offering twice as much FCC.  

#2 and #3 are going to be a huge hurdle.  As much as cruise lines like to claim the local economies, they really don’t.  Non-cruise tourism is much better tourism.  Hotels, eat dinner at restaurants not just lunch, rent cars.  Cruise ships tend to overwhelm the area by dumping 3000 people onto an area at once without bringing in that much commerce. Does anyone really think Venice is wants the ships back?

On 3/20/2020 at 7:26 PM, Markanddonna said:

Yes, I also follow that great website. It is heartbreaking.  The most important thing to me is to see that the USA is doing much better per capita than the vast majority of first world nations.

 

That number is meaningless.  We got hit after them and have a larger population. We have the highest growth rate of any country.  NYC metro area is going to be in worse than Northern Italy by early next week.

3 hours ago, irzero said:

Kodak's core business model was photo film which went practically extinct. Useless comparison.

Cruise lines are no different than any locked down business at the moment.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

Several flaws in that theory:

1. While I consider cruise lines at greater risk, there are going to be plenty of business that don’t survive this.  I wouldn’t take comfort in the theory everyone is in the same boat, even if it was true, but it is not.

2. Most major companies are not completely shut down.  Disney closed its parks, but their online streaming service is getting more traffic than they anticipated a few months ago.  The Gap has closed some mall stores but are still operating their online business.  Walmart is selling less of somethings but more groceries.  Airlines have less business but are not completely shut down.  Hotels may (sadly) get some business as makeshift recovery/isolation centers.

3. Cruiselines could very well be among the last business to reopen.  Avoid crowds of more than 10, could become no more than 50 then 100 then 200 taking several months or years before things like a cruise ship or NYE in times square is permitted.  For example I would not be surprised if all major sports have a full year where they are permitted to play in front of the TV but the stands are closed.  

4. Cruise lines are less able to take advantage of pent up demand. Much of there pent up demand will be honoring FCC which doesn’t bring in much cash.

5. Even if the USA reopens for cruise ship business the med, caribbean islands, and asian countries may all say no.  Keep in mind Canada hasn’t promised to start letting cruise ships in July.  Just that they are absolutely banned until then, they could extend that.

6. Just because Trump decides to let cruise ships sail doesn’t mean the Governor of Florida will allow ship to use the ports.

The biggest gamble with going on a cruise isn't going to be in the casino.

41 minutes ago, dani negreanu said:

 

Today, after a lot of religious people asked for a solution, as not to leave the elderly alone at this special time, only the Sephard Rabbi approved to use of "Zoom" for the seder night. Of course, the Sephard community was always more liberal in its interpretation of the religious laws.

 

The Ashkenazi -- don't allow even "Zoom".

Depends on the Ashkenazi, the reform and reconstruction movements are largely ashkenazi but would allow zoom.  The orthodox absolutely would not, not sure about the conservative movement.  

3 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

The other possibility that you overlooked is that we find out this virus has been around a lot longer than we thought and we start finding that there is a lot more natural immunity out there tha....

From your mouth to gods year.

It is possible.  But if true we should have a pretty high number of unexplained respiratory deaths during that period   And we should not be seeing the massive growth rate.  

Just now, sellwingri said:

I bought on Monday.  How do I get the OBC?

Step 1.  Need a cruise that is sailing. 

6 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

I don't doubt that we have more dips to come. It is pretty hard to buy in at the bottom. But if we do have a substantial dip I'll grab some more. As long as no bankruptcy gets involved eventually, and I have time to wait, it should be ok.

I agree it is pretty hard to buy in at the bottom.  But I want to see progress on fighting the actual virus before I get in.  Not just a stimulus package.  But a declining infection and death rate,  The stock market is not the problem, the problem is covid-19.  Until we make progress in testing and isolating the specific carriers the economy will get worse and worse day by day.  If we try to stimulus our way out of this by the end of the year the dollar will be worth less than a 1923 German mark.

22 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

 

I just don't get it. A nonoperational company that provides a non-essential service when it is functioning. What am I missing?

The stock market doesn’t move in a straight line. If we are on a recovery we just witnessed the shortest bull market in history (I doubt that). This just a bump up before the next fall.  
 

Just now, irzero said:

problem is incubation period. not to mention virus carried on surfaces by non infected people. 

The incubation period is a problem that can be fixed by testing healthy people. The good news if we can get R0 to less than 1, we can beat it. 

5 minutes ago, irzero said:

 

You would need to be tested all the time. 85% of cases are mild or no symptoms but also infectious.

 

1 day you go visit granny in the care home and next week 100 old people are dead. 

 

Yup.  Tests every 4 days for the general population with no symptoms.  With nursing homes there would be a testing center in the parking lot.  Get a negative test before entering. Employee leaves for lunch they need another test to go back in.

11 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

Double that ramp up, and something close to a country lock down. 

With enough tests we don’t need a lock down.  If you are forbidden to enter any business, school, employer, public transportation or public space etc unless you have tested negative for Covid 19 in the last 4 days.  And a positive test gets you in mandatory isolation.  Well then the country doesn’t require a lock down and the epidemic will end shortly there after.  Tests are critical, the stay home orders without widespread testing is almost useless.