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20 minutes ago, CruisingAlong4Now said:

Florida residents would be negatively impacted by failures in the cruise industry.  The residents rely on the tourist taxes (which are just shy of exorbitant and immoral) to subsidize the FL government and services.  The state caps increases in annual real estate and offers large Homestead exemptions.  If someone is in their house for a long time, they may be paying less than 1/2 the real estate taxes a newcomer would pay.  The tourists pay the difference.

Florida is dependent on tourism, not the cruise lines. The shutdown of the magic kingdom is a much bigger hit than DCL not sailing.

12 minutes ago, cementhands said:

What’s the bottom? Seems like NCL is getting hit the worst. At what price is bankruptcy a possibility. Risk factors. Will cruise resume this fall next year? Canada not allowing cruise ships will effect Alaskan and New England cruise. Don’t USA cruises have to visit international port each trip except Hawaii around island. Many factors including other countries reaction.

The stock price dropping won’t cause bankruptcy.  That is a complete reversal of cause and effect.  Bankruptcy will happen if the company runs out of money.  The low stock price is a result of people being concerned about bankruptcy, but a low stock price won’t cause bankruptcy and a high price won’t prevent it.  

(That is a bit of an oversimplification as stock price can affect the companies ability to raise cash by issuing stock.  But in general risk of. bankruptcy drives the price, not the price drives bankruptcy) 

If you are not buying on margin the message is not relevant to you.  
 

Typically you are allowed to borrow 50% and buy on margin.  So to buy 10 shares of stock at $20 you would need to have $100 of cash and can borrow $100.  Highly volatile stocks some times have special margin requirements, limiting how much you can borrow to 30 or 40%.   

The US is not requiring you to come home. In fact encouraging travel would be stupid.  (not that the government is immune from doing stupid things) There could be the issue of your visa expiring.  I doubt any country is kicking people out over the disease.  Not letting people in — absolutely. Throwing people out - no.  

But make sure you have a very good travel health insurance in case you need it.

Stores will be overstocked in hand sanitizer and masks well before cruiser lines are operational again.

17 minutes ago, Nic6318 said:

 

Hi

 

I couldn't agree more. As movement is restricted, more and more business large and small are going to close. Not just for a two week (or so) shutdown, but until they see the prospect of being able to make a profit again. 

For a lot of small business, they won’t be reopening ever.  Many won’t survive 8 weeks of no revenue.

1 hour ago, bobandsherry said:

 

 

Certainly glad that you have the background, experience and knowledge to just totally discount the estimate. And you know, as I went to find my original source I found this from CLIA. They estimate it's $53 billion. So go ahead, discount their estimate by 50% and you come back to thr initial, and low ball, estimate.

https://cruising.org/news-and-research/press-room/2019/november/cruise-industry-contributes-nearly-53-billion-to-us-economy-in-2018

Have a great one....



Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
 

 

According to this report the average cruiser generates over $4000 in economic benefits for the USA.  There is absolutely no way that is not overinflated.  

Don’t be shocked if self-service buffets are gone when the ships start sailing again.

8 minutes ago, sfaaa said:

Practically  every stock on the exchange tanked the last few days including heavy weights Apple and many Fortune 500 companies. I wouldn't read too much into dropping stock prices right now.

Yes, plenty of sticks are down.  Most of the companies will recover but have lower earnings in 2020 than 2019.  Some won’t make it. Cruise lines are probably the worst position of any industry.  Very impacted, high costs, and highly leveraged.   

6 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

It's rather premature for anyone, in my opinion, to make such a statement.  If that did happen, the FCC could be worthless.  Maybe.  Of the three major cruise companies, CCL is the strongest.  

The reason the stock price is so low is the very real risk of that happening.  I am not saying it definitely is going to happen, but I would not be surprised in the least. To a great extent the determining factor will be how many people choose the refund vs the FCC.  

I would take the cash.  

As for “all sales end today” it said that yesterday, it said that the day before, and the day before that.  Prediction: there will be another sale ending tomorrow.

Carnival is at risk of going bankrupt, in which case your FCC will be worthless.  Even if the virus disappears tomorrow the cruise lines will have a long road ahead of them rebuilding their bookings, good deals will be abound on all the lines.  If you take the FCC you are stuck with one line, put the cash in a savings account and find a good deal when the dust settles.

29 minutes ago, ATC cruiser said:

I think he meant higher than the 1 percent I stated.

Whether it is 1%, 7% or 15% the vast majority are not US citizens/taxpayers.  

17 hours ago, ontheweb said:

A quick minute on MSNBC.

 

con---They are not  really an essential industry.

 

pro--They employ a lot of people.

Con - the overwhelming majority of which are not Americans.  

3 minutes ago, Suite Heart said:

 

That statement is not limited to salespeople.😋

True.  I have used that statement for other occupations as well, but for this thread it fits.

5 minutes ago, TYinPalmSprings said:

Yeah, like your knowledge of accounting, it's your own. Sorry that you also clump Americans as affluent.  But like everything else, you are entitled to your own opinions. 

Not all Americans are affluent.  But anyone who can afford a cruise is unquestionably wealthy by world standards.

Protect yourself by knowing how to spot lying salespeople.  

How can you tell a salesperson is lying?  Their lips are moving.

1 hour ago, NateUpNorth said:

 

So you're saying for every fund manager constrained by investment grade rating there isn't an offsetting value manager filling his boots right now?

You can find bond managers that will buy junk bonds, but they demand a much higher interest rate than higher grade bonds.  Higher interest rates mean more cost, thus lower earnings and cash flow.  This can result in a downward spiral.

33 minutes ago, Tony O said:

The other  issue not being discussed anywhere  is another reason  stocks are tanking is the oil fight between Saudi Arabia  and Russia. Since they could not agree on an oil production reduction  Saudi said the hell with the supply and plan on flooding the market  So this is  another piece in the stock market chaos.

Cheap oil is good for most stocks.  Might hurt a few energy companies, but all other companies would benefit from this type of fight.  It is when OPEC restricts oil to drive up prices that stocks tank.  

5 hours ago, Potstech said:

When were ALL airplanes cancelled for a disease?

Because of a disease, not aware of it happening.  I do know that the federal government  did ground all airplanes when it deemed their flying to be a threat to the country.  

On 2/26/2020 at 2:12 PM, Biker19 said:

Tough to know when to catch a falling knife.

 

My plan is to wait until the knife hits the floor and bounces up a bit.  

Impossible to know what the exact bottom will be, but I feel confident the bottom won't happen until the virus stabilizes. Once cruises are not longer being canceled because of the virus (either because the virus is contained or more likely because it is so widespread a corona virus on-board is viewed as nor more significant than a flu patient being on board).  Granted my entry point will be a few dollars above the bottom.  Predicting the exact bottom is impossible.  But I would rather buy on the way up than the way down.  Much less risky that way.     

Flying in a day early may or may not work.  

My parents went on four cruises out of Florida in which they flew in the day of the cruise each time with no problem.  

In a bit or irony, for their fifth cruise at the encouragement of a friend who always flew the day before they decided to fly down the day before. Plus tickets for the day before were much much cheaper. Their decision was in large part motivated that the difference in plane tickets would pay for much of the hotel.  

Massive snow storm the day they were suppose to fly and their flight was canceled.  The planes were flying the next day and had they had a ticket for one of those flights they would have made their cruise, but atlas those flights were full and nothing was available until the following day.  

1 hour ago, glentally said:

Somehow you are incorrect.  I was referring to my specific cruise out of San Juan and the rates for single get no break espically in 6 months or more from now.

Maybe, maybe not.  Right now cruise lines are offering ridiculously good deals on last minute cruises.  If the virus trend keeps getting worse or stays the same the deals will continue.  Outstanding chance you will be able to get a better deal a week before it sails than you can get now or what you booked already.

9 hours ago, glentally said:

I guess you could say an exaggeration on my part. Higher than my original cruise would better describe it.

Somehow I doubt that.  Pricing fluctuations are based on supply and demand.  Demand is very soft right now and getting softer, cruises lines are offering OBC to get you to not cancel. 

9 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

I'm not arguing with you but I am interested in your thoughts on why you think CCL even gives the OBC across all of it's lines if it isn't to keep the small investors?  Wouldn't not offering the OBC increase the amount of profit going to the 87%?

The real value in offering the OBC is not to encourage cruisers to buy stock but to encourage more cruising.  The type of person who has enough free cash to buy 100 shares of stock is a good customer for the line.  (e.g able to afford balcony rather than inside cabin, spend money at speciality dinning, spa etc) Plus it builds loyalty.  If you have stock in CCL but not RCL or NCL. you are going to be more loyal to CCL than you would otherwise.  Also shareholders are more likely to do marketing for the line than non-shareholders (a phenomena you can witness regularly here on CC) 

The purpose isn’t to keep small investors, it is to keep cruisers.  Hypothetically if CCL discontinued the OBC benefit the biggest problem wouldn’t be those small investors selling the stock....but them selling the stock then using the money to buy 100 shares of NCLH and sailing on NCL instead and the resulting loss of revenue from not having those customers anymore.   

7 minutes ago, Kenswing said:

When they come back with positive test results from the Grand, Monday will be another blood bath.  I'm waiting for the teens before I buy again. 

I am bearish on the stock but NOT that pessimistic.  

My analysis is *if* the test results are positive it will hurt the stock by a few dollars, but *if* they are negative it will only help the stock by a few pennies.  More downside then upside.