10 minutes ago, irzero said:

Why should I give thousands to a company for a service they will not be providing. They should suspend final payments until they know what is happening.



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If you can get a full refund, I would cancel your booking at get a refund.  On the very outside chance cruise ships start sailing demand will be low enough you will have no problem booking another cruise.

2 hours ago, drsel said:

By car or taxi. So less human to human proximity or contact

In some cities that might not  work.  I doubt major cities have enough taxis.  Uber system is already overcapacity on deliveries.

Also a crowded bus is very high risk.  A bus with only a few riders is the about same risk as a taxi.  

15 minutes ago, drsel said:

All countries should close the metro trains and buses
Public transport is the easiest way to spread the virus

How are doctors, nurses, grocery store workers, etc suppose to get to work?

6 minutes ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

I do not see why anyone is in a panic mode about either cruise line. They have been in far worse situations in the past and came back out on top. I am sure this is a temporary set back. This virus should diminish very soon. China reported only one new case yesterday and one today.

Seriously what was worse.? The poop cruise?  Affected one ship.  Conocordi? one ship. Achille Lauro? one region that was pretty minor for the cruise industry.  9-11?  Flights were grounded. Ships still sailed.

10 hours ago, caribbeanboy said:

Personally I think this will go on way beyond April.

I am thinking it should wind down by April or May of 2021.

1 hour ago, Blizzard54 said:

This will be bigger than all those other numbers if we do not get a handle on it.

I do not need to scare myself, my brother died from covid 19 yesterday   

So sorry.

11 minutes ago, dasmonkey said:

This ^

I would love to hear their explanation of this quote,
"The industry is resilient and has fared through far worse."

What exactly has been "far worse" than a complete shut down and total shut off of income for who knows how many months?

The luxury ocean liner industry did go thru something that might have been worse.  They adapted by selling most of the fleet to US navy to become troop transports.  Only possible explanation. This should take less time than WWII

9 minutes ago, irzero said:

I would not short this stock. You could be wiped out just on a market rally.

I am not a big fan of shorting a stock — prefer buying put options.  

3 minutes ago, irzero said:

 

Cruises are in a race against time to work out how to sail with this threat which wont be gone for 12-24 months via vaccine. Even if drugs work they dont stop infection they just treat it. Until then stocks will be in for a rough time as with the cruise lines.

And I think they will lose that race and go bankrupt.  I would buy put options in cruise stocks not the stocks themselves.

20 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

But are the people who cruise primarily not the Caribbean those who would end up doing a domestic vacation? Our last non-cruise vacation was to Peru. Before that to Central Europe. Before that to Paris and Amsterdam. And before that I forget which order London and Scotland.

Explain how some switching from a med cruise to a land based tour of Europe harms the US tourism industry.  That switch would be completely neutral.  

If someone would have spent a day in New Orleans before their cruise shifts to a Europe land tour that harms the US a little.

If someone switch from a med cruise to a US land based vacation the port city suffers a tiny bit but the new destination benefits a lot.  

Most of the Caribbean cruisers  are likely to choose Florida, New Orleans or other US destination.  Although some might choose Mexico or fly to a Caribbean island.

Folks that switch from an Asian cruise to a land tour in Asia have no effect on US economy.  

45 minutes ago, irzero said:

Rapid testing could be the saviour of cruise ships. 

 

Test for immunity then you are good to cruise.

Test for infection. You dont get on the ship if infected.

If we could develop a test with near instant feedback (under an hour) and identifies very early.  (E,g  if you got it from someone on the flight an hour ago the test would come back positive) then that would work.  I doubt we are close to that.  

2 minutes ago, Kesstral said:

It doesn't appear that the cruise lines have taken ANY action on this news from Canada still.  They've shut down operations for 30 days but you can still book Vancouver departure Alaskan sailings starting in mid-April.  Are the cruise lines sitting around going "oh that Canada, they are so funny, they didn't mean it" or have they just not gotten around to dealing with anything after the first 30 days?  I had a rep from Holland email me today asking if I wanted to book something for this May.

I think they are hoping for a miracle.  

11 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

Barrons and Sumzero came out today with a 18 - 24 month price target of $80.00 for RCL.

Why Would Anyone Buy Royal Caribbean Stock? Here’s a Manager’s Bull Case.

Updated March 18, 2020 1:34 pm ET / Original March 18, 2020 1:26 pm ET.

Conclusion

Although the situation surrounding Covid-19 is changing constantly, making it difficult to accurately quantify the impact to RCL, the cruise industry, and the overall economy, it will be temporary. If investors believe the situation is so dire that the company will have to suspend cruises beyond the first half of 2020, then a private-equity buyout or a favorable reorganization is much more likely than Chapter 7. The industry is resilient and has fared through far worse, and RCL’s proven track record is one that can give investors across the capital stack confidence in recovering value after the coronavirus pandemic ends.

---

 

By 

Pooria Dariush, Secured Debt Investments

Updated March 18, 2020 1:34 pm ET / Original March 18, 2020 1:26 pm ET

Interesting.  He assumes only a 40% decline in passengers vs 2019.  Basically every cruise ship is operational by end of May at pretty close to capacity.  He does not take into consideration the cost of FCC bonuses for canceled cruises. Nor does he factor in lower prices, more OBC to entice passengers.  Nor factoring in a need for a massive marketing campaign to get people to sail again. 

Basically he is assuming that it will act like the seasonal flu and disappear in the spring, but unlike the flu won’t return next fall.

I am not that optimistic.  

5 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

We have never considered going to Florida except when we flew there to go on cruises.

So what?  If you didn’t cruise you would do something.  And for most people that would involve domestic travel.  Yeah, some people would go overseas, but many more would do land based domestic vacations.  Orlando theme parks are way more important to Florida tourism than the small number of people who fly in the one night before. No cruises mean more dollars spent at land based attractions.  The cruise lines literally send US dollars overseas. 

21 minutes ago, DarrenM said:

Ah thats alright then. If your last sentence is correct it wont be in your lifetime.

 

And out of interest, how you planning on getting to Rome?

It is entirely possible that every single airlines will go thru bankruptcy.  But that won’t end air traffic.  The planes will be sold for pennies on the dollar and new companies will emerge.  The new airline will employee many of the former laid off workers.

Every cruise line could go bankrupt, but the ships will remain.  Maybe not all of them some might become scrap.  But someone will buy some of them and start new companies.

Same with many hotels.  Some might get torn down or converted to apartments.  But just because a hotel goes bankrupt does not mean the building collapses.

Restaurants will go out of business and new ones will open.  

Many of today’s business empires were built by buying depressed assets during the 1930s. 

18 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

It also should be noted that if cruising were not an option, much of what is now spent on cruises would likely go to alternative domestic recreational spending. 

 

I would go as far as to say if cruise lines disappeared, it would have a net positive effect on the domestic tourism industry.  More money stays in Florida/USA if I fly to Miami and spend a week in hotels, eat at restaurants, visit local attractions etc than if I go on a cruise.

Don’t know if this applies to PVP’s but I know of one business that actually advertises that there there salespeople did not receive commissions — but rather a salary  and bonus based on great service.  Reality was salary was minimum wage and bonuses was based tiered based on sales targets.  Missing quota was grounds for dismissal.  So although they were not technically on commission, affectively they were.

I suspect something similar is true for PVPs.  The get an minimum hourly rate that can be greatly enhanced by hitting targets.

22 minutes ago, irzero said:

Based on what...

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Fact : 85 % decline is NOT the most pessimistic opinion.  The most pessimistic opinion is 100% decline.  

To answer the OP question:

Almost certainly no.  If the cruise lines are still shut down this summer than it means the pandemic is still an issue and it would be unwise to travel.  

Only situation where going on an alternate vacation would make sense is if the cruise lines go bankrupt— thus no cruises, but the pandemic is over.

36 minutes ago, LPCruise4fun said:

We just returned from a cruise March 1st, and thankfully, all of us are fine.  We're booked at the end of May and I'm optimistic at this point that this will last about 2 months.  What is totally boggling my mind is that Cruise Lines are not requiring passports in order to cruise and still allowing birth certificates to be used??? 

 

A birth certificate does not prove you haven't traveled to a restricted Country (basically anywhere now) and me ticking a box on a sheet of paper (referring to their health questioner) saying that I haven't been to any restricted Countries is flimsy proof, at best.

 

Why aren't Cruise Lines putting out statements that they will require passports once they begin sailing again?  That is the ONLY way of tracking where someone has traveled!

Pure speculation......Cruise lines won’t start sailing until after the pandemic has run its course, in other words, there won’t be anymore hotspots/restricted countries.  Also it means most of the cruises are immune, either they resisted the disease during the pandemic or caught it and recovered. But I predict that won’t be for several months.  

Also the only ones that are able to us BC are Americans leaving from an American port.  If said person traveled from a restricted area they should have been quarantine before being allowed into the general population.

At USA is a month or so from being a major hotspot, so attempting to use a BC is proof you have been to a hotspot.

And finally, the system is not designed to stop bio-terrorism, but people from inadvertently spreading the disease.  If some is traveling to Northern Italy on their passport and then using BC to board a cruise ship and lying about travels they are a bioterrorist, not someone inadvertently spreading the disease.   

37 minutes ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

I hope it does not take long to hit bottom, 

Me neither, but only because it won’t start climbing until the crisis is over.

1 minute ago, Bradison said:

 

If you could only know this info the day BEFORE it happens.  Not suggesting insider trader or anything...wink...wink🤨

I know I won’t be buying at the absolute bottom. I figure to pay. 10 to 20 % more than the low point.   

I am okay with that. I would rather buy on the way up than the way down. And it going to zero is possible. 

1 minute ago, Colorado Babe said:

So, I guess the big question is when do I want to jump and buy it?  

Things that will happen before I buy.

1. Both WHO and CDC declares the pandemic to have ended.

2. Cruise lines resume operations.  

On 3/14/2020 at 10:58 AM, Gardyloo said:

I would not be surprised at all if the US government were to suspend enforcement of the PVSA foreign port requirement temporarily.  So far the Port of Seattle hasn't followed the Canadian lead, beyond canceling the first two Alaska sailings of the year next month.

Why should they?  If the cruise lines want to sail directly from Seattle to Alaska they can, all they need to do is a quick change of the ship’s registration and start paying US taxes.

Explain why anyone should bail out an industry whose own greed (not canceling sailing/ports in affected areas not offering full refunds and canceling the bookings of people traveling from effected areas) greatly increased the spread of the disease?