At Sea At Peace

Huh? Link? 🤨

NP. We all do it. 😄 NCLH, as well as the other two of the big three, have shifted the focus to EBITDA from earnings (net income). Sort of like politicians. 🤣 For any business one cannot survive long term with only 'positive' EBITDA. At some point, without borrowing funds (or liquidating assets), interest expense (now a massive 'multiple' to pre-pandemic in amount of debt and cost via interest rates) has to be serviced. Depreciation and amortization, although noncash amounts, also reflect the declining value of the assets (ships, port facilities, etc.) which secure the long-term debt. Debt holders secured by such assets that are declining in value will want their debt maturities paid and/or a much higher interest (risk) rate. I guess we'll all see what 2023 brings. There are so many 'balls up in the air' that even the best juggler would have to admit some of them might drop and impact the cruise industry (and the economy).

Actually, Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) is what they had purported as being positive. So, the 'amount of the "I" doesn't mathematically come in to play. It was already an omen that they changed from net income to EBITDA in the first place. 😉

Not really missing anything because they didn't tell us everything; specifically both sides of the liquidity coin. 😉 "Our liquidity consisted of cash and cash equivalents of approximately $1 billion and a $1 billion undrawn commitment less related fees as of December 31, 2022, compared to cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments of $1.7 billion and a $1 billion undrawn commitment less related fees as of December 31, 2021." So we have cash of $1 billion at 12/31/22; not really from earnings, rather again from customer deposits, which at 9/30/22 were $2.3 billion. No mention of such at 12/31/22, but only $1.5 billion 12/31/21. If 62% booked for 2023 compared to very low 2022 bookings reported at 12/31/21, i.e., customer deposits will be 'significantly larger' at 12/31/22 than 12/31/21. Houston, we have a . . . . .

On the move now pulling away from pier. https://www.portevergladeswebcam.com/ Looks like she left Castaway Cay at normal time yesterday. https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/vessels/DISNEY-WISH/CURRENT-POSITION/9834739/311001098

As usual, the concern is the well being of the person(s) if in fact a medical stop. For the other passengers, per the itinerary this appears to be a sea day on the way back to Port Canaveral tomorrow.

It's hard not to notice the signature Disney cruise line ship colors and design, so surprised to look down the beach this morning 7:30 and see the WISH coming in to Port Everglades. Disney's new 15-year agreement not scheduled to see readiness and ships until this Fall, so this clearly appears to be a medical emergency port call. https://www.portevergladeswebcam.com/

Yep, it's going up again. Our 14-day in November with OT2 upgrade to OT4 for Diamond promotion went from $6,850 to $8,050 PP $13,700 to $16,100 or $2,400 increase 17.5% yesterday.

Got some additional information from replies from Explora Journeys and/or a Travel Agent working on a Reservation Hold for a 14-day Miami/Miami in November 2023. (1) Explora Journey responded in about 48+ hours. (2) The Quotes provided by Explora Journeys and/or a Travel Agent are providing the 2-Stateroom Level MSC DIAMOND upgrade promotion. If the amount on your quote looks high (prior the price increase yesterday 1/16/2023) if you were looking at the price of an OT1, it's because if the OT1's are "gone" they've moved on to the base price of an OT2 before applying the upgrade to an OT4. The way to tell is to simply look at the Stateroom assignment on the Quote and compare to the Explora Journeys I deck plan and legend. (3) The $500 OBC (they refer to as the JEC) for Diamond members is a 1-time promotion "per Diamond member" and "per booking" and would not double to booking the 14-day by its two 7-day component itineraries. The EJ respondent agent indicated that it is possible that each of the two 7-day component bookings might* be considered separate is the Diamond member making the booking was different. In our Quote, which we've have to cancel, such would be significantly worth less as the new booking(s) would be at the new, increased prices. * "might" as she had not encountered that question before and would need to ask a supervisor. So, as it stands now, our 14-day cruise in a OT4 Stateroom Mid-Ship on Deck 9 (based on the pre-January 16, 2023 price increase) would be $6,850PP, with a $500 OBC/JEP by Explora Journeys. Using our TA we also would get a $200PP per week TA OBC ($800).

The previously reported general price increases in mid-January have been put in place already today. Existing quotes are expected to be honored.

We're finding that (1) Explora Journeys memberships and communications by phone and email with their staff is, well, not so helpful and (2) most TA's didn't do business with MSC and haven't added Explora Journeys to their cruise line profile and (3) the EA's that do have MSC and Explora Journeys services have a hard time getting Explora Journeys to confirm specifics of the QUOTE. 😲 After finding one in (3) above, and getting a quote, the 2-category stateroom upgrade was listed, but the price was per the online amount of the OT3 and not the OT1? Also, the $500 OBC was not on the quote, but the TA said it would be on the actual reservation. TODAY ANOTHER GENERAL PRICE INCREASE ACROSS THE BOARDS ARE NOW IN PLACE. Best of Luck.

There is also an announce across the board FARE INCREASE coming in mid-January 2023. https://latteluxurynews.com/2022/12/22/price-rise-for-explora-journeys-from-mid-january/

I can't find a link to the promotion, but I've seen it somewhere and I'll look. 🙄 We've been working with a couple of TA's that were familiar with the 2-stateroom level upgrade and the $500 OBC and they were reflected in the quotes we were given. Unanswered questions ~ 1. Is the 2-stateroom level upgrade limited to within a certain class of staterooms, or does it allow to step up to a higher stateroom class? 2. Is the $500 OBC per booking; if booking a 14-day as one cruise there is a $500 OBC, however, it appears that booking the two components of the 14-day cruise into two 7-day cruises generates an additional $500 OBC. There are also promotions to TA's for volume and stateroom class that allows TA's to offer TA OBC's. Our quote from one was $400 OBC per person on the 14-day quote.

On Friday there was another overview of several of the dining venues. https://cruiseradio.net/explora-journeys-details-dining-first-cruise-ship/ New MSC Brand Explora Journeys Details Dining On Its First Cruise Ship

Regarding required reservations for the other dining venues, when and how can a booked trip passenger make such reservations? Anyone that might know.

The following oddity continues, extremely high daily short volume during a period of rising PPS. This pretty much runs against the trends in prior months of intra-day short selling during declining PPS and covering for short-term day trader profits. So, do they portend that . . . .

We signed up on their separate website and tried to book a cruise (12/13/2023) directly. A couple of issues and don't know if you or anyone can comment ~ 1. Couldn't find the Diamond MSC promotions that you mention. 2. Can't select a specific stateroom. Once selecting a category, they price it and give you a stateroom number. A message indicates that if you want to change your assigned stateroom or category you have to call them directly. Ships looks incredible.

Well, that's one optimistic perspective along a lot of fronts. Cruise Lines -V- Air Lines - US Covid Era Assistance Air Lines - "In the Money" The 10 major US 'passenger' airlines received more than $54 billion in 'direct payments' from the US. They also received $25 billion in subsidized loans from the US Treasury. They 'suspended' the 7.5% excise tax on domestic air travel. They 'suspended' federally associated payments to airports and land based contractors. Cruise Lines - "Zip" In essence, what the 10 air lines got in the $54 billion 'for free' was equivalent to what the 3 major cruise lines "borrowed" and "lost!" Equity gets scrapped first, as always. Then 'lower tiered, unsecured creditors are next, as always. In play, over $10 billion in customer deposits across the big 3. The secured creditors control the future, have direct positions in the best ships, islands, etc. and are not known for 'sharing.' NCL will likely continue to sail, just under some 'other than current ownership' arrangement.

And the Judge's orders were updated December 30, 2022 to include Carnival, Norwegian, Royal Caribbean and MSC. "Judge Bloom sided with Havana Docks, a company that held a concession to operate the Port of Havana. She ruled that by using the terminal, or one of its piers, the cruise lines "committed trafficking acts." The company filed lawsuits against the four cruise lines for their use of the Port of Havana between 2015 and 2019, when cruise travel to Cuba was authorized. The ruling is expected to be appealed by the cruise lines. According to court documents, Carnival, Norwegian, Royal Caribbean, and MSC SA earned at least $1 billion in doing so, according to The Miami Herald." https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/norwegian-cruise-line-ordered-to-pay-110-million-for-use-of-cuba-port/ Florida-based cruise lines ordered to pay $400 million for use of Cuba port

Just the informational FYI.

Just and FYI on what the issue is about. IMO, with different rulings and with all cruise lines that used Cuban ports and docks, would seem to head toward appeal for NCL. 1. It is about compensation prior owners of private property seized by the Cuban government and subsequently "used, and how to compensate the original owners." https://www.steptoe.com/en/news-publications/helms-burton-act-update.html "Title III of the Helms-Burton Act — a unique provision of a federal law passed in 1996 that provides the owners of claims to property confiscated by the Cuban government during the Cuban revolution a private cause of action against any entity that is "trafficking" (broadly defined to include a range of commercial activity and joint ventures) in that confiscated property." "Claims have since been brought by a range of plaintiffs, including both corporations and the descendants of individuals who are the "rightful owners" of the confiscated property, against a range of defendants, including both domestic and foreign companies in industries spanning mining, tourism/hospitality, and tobacco whose business intersects with Cuba." 2. This case is by Havana Docks Corp (as the former private owner of the port) which also has active in pending cases against all cruise lines that sailed Cuba for a brief period. https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2022/12/norwegian-cruise-line-pay-110-million-in-cuba-court-case/ "The case, ongoing for some time, was ruled in favor of the Havana Docks Corp., that essentially argued that the cruise line’s use of the Havana port “constituted trafficking in confiscated property” as the port is a Cold-War asset seizure. It is unclear whether NCLH will or can appeal the nine-figure ruling. Havana Docks Corp. also is said to have pending cases against Carnival Corporation, Royal Caribbean Group and MSC Cruises." 3. In another case 7/13/202, with less clear direct prior title (ownership line passed down interest), the Judge ruled for Carnival and such was thought to be "precedent setting" ** going forward. https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2020/07/judge-rules-for-carnival-in-cuba-case/ “The decision is precedent setting and will affect not only other Helms-Burton Act cases against Cruise Lines, but will stand as a decision that all Helms-Burton litigants will come to know. “ ** apparently not "precedent setting!"

Also, for those today for SW / Cruise passengers heading to Port Everglades from the FLL airport. 🤞

Well this is a breath of fresh air today for SW / Cruise passengers returning to Port Everglades and heading to the FLL airport. 🤞

Well, we're not happy with the numerous (4) cancellations (tens of hours at Gate before returning to home) on SW we just experienced, the overbooked and overpriced (DOT, i.e., 'gouging) competing airlines we had to alternately use. However, watching the politicians and government mouthpieces pound their chest on what they're going to do to Southwest we shouldn't jump on such banter and bandwagon. Southwest didn't intentionally mess up, to think otherwise is simply not rational. There are many articles about the various factors that created the perfect storm for them at this time. The best source to "account for such" (i.e., make reimbursements) and to "remedy such" (update the failed systems) is Southwest, not a politician grandstanding or a transportation Secretary appearing on the news. And Southwest has made such announcements. https://www.southwest.com/traveldisruption/ "If you have been impacted by a flight cancellation or significant flight delay between December 24, 2022 and January 2, 2023, you may submit receipts for consideration via Email Us on Southwest.com. Using the Email Us link takes you to a support page where you click on Complaint, then choose Flight, then Cancellation, and follow the ‘Next’ prompt. Please attach copies of your expenses for review. We will honor reasonable requests for reimbursement for meals, hotel, and alternate transportation (such as rental cars, or tickets on other airlines)." So, they will be making efforts to reimburse and they will need to win back customers confidence or they will fail. The intervention by government POLs and regulators, especially the tasty headline of potential fines, is not the answer. I can't think of, or feel for, many similarly identifiable group of SW passengers in the position of cruisers who missed their paid for cruises because of this. It's terrible.

This is a top concern, but with the extreme level of cancellations, the insurers are going to go into the 'fine print' in the policies. Here's an interesting article on this subject very recent. What follows is on a summary point and then the applicable current insurable events language on a typical policy. What Happens If I Miss My Cruise Due to a Flight Cancellation? cruzely.com/what-happens-if-i-miss-my-cruise-due-to-a-flight-cancellation/ “Covered Events”: “Common Carrier delays and/or cancellations resulting from adverse weather, mechanical breakdown of the aircraft, ship, boat or motor coach that you were scheduled to travel on, or organized labor strikes that affect public transportation” "So if the weather causes a cancelation, you’re covered. If the plane breaks down, you are covered. However, in the specific case of Southwest Airlines, while a winter storm might have started the current issues, it then spread well beyond that. Many flights were canceled where there were no weather issues at all. Meanwhile, the canceled flights also weren’t due to mechanical issues or an organized labor strike."