Understanding how NCL fares are set, and why they go up and down

[PokerDave]

Very well thought out as you would expect from a Poker Pro... Thanks for sharing.

[pokerpro5]

Thanks for the great info!

 

I'm still confused about the KSF issue though. I just got off the phone with an NCL supervisor because I was trying to upgrade to a minisuite since prices on my 3 weeks out sailing have dropped. They will not honor my KSF if I upgrade, even though I have done it before. They say it depends on which sailing and inventory. What would have to change about the inventory and these computer generated prices for me to be able to use my KSF still? Any ideas? She told me to call back again and it might change. :confused:

 

I do like your idea of booking an inside room for the kids later when prices drop. However, right now this would still cost me the same as if I didn't book under KSF (about $900).

 

You might want to call and ask for a different supervisor. Also make sure you are reaching the Miami office, and not Arizona or somewhere else.

 

I will say that I understand NCL's position here, and it's very possible they won't help you.

 

Basically, the after-the-fact upgrade is a favor that NCL is doing for its customers. They are saying, "We won't refund you anything, but if you want a better product for today's prices instead of the inflated one you already paid, we'll give it to you for the difference."

 

Airlines won't do that. If they are selling a first class ticket today for what I paid last month for coach, they will laugh me off the phone if I ask them to upgrade me for free.

 

So NCL is telling you that you can't have it both ways. You can't have BOTH a great promotion AND upgrade at after-final-payment-date low prices. I totally understand that.

 

With that said, if you have successfully had it done before, it's worth another shot to make it happen. You might want to pull out that old reservation, have them look it up, and verify this was done for you. Then you can make the argument, "I wouldn't have booked so early and paid so much if I knew that this wouldn't be allowed again. How was I to know this would be refused this time?" They might go for it.

[dna529]

Agreed. I totally understand. I just want them to be consistent. Others have been allowed to keep it recently. Maybe it's something about the Getaway.

 

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Forums mobile app

[Gerry P]

What does KFS stand for?:confused:

[PokerDave]

What does KFS stand for?:confused:

 

KSF... Kids Stay Free.

[jmele999]

Thanks for all the info. However, I still think that some of the price increases are not computer generated such as the increases that occurred late last month prior to the 10% OBC promotion. The prices of my three upcoming cruises increased by about 10%, and in one of cruises, our cabin has been the only one that has been sold in that category so it was not related to supply and demand.

[pokerpro5]

Thanks for all the info. However, I still think that some of the price increases are not computer generated such as the increases that occurred late last month prior to the 10% OBC promotion. The prices of my three upcoming cruises increased by about 10%, and in one of cruises, our cabin has been the only one that has been sold in that category so it was not related to supply and demand.

 

Did those go back down right after the OBC promotion?

[Shawnino]

PP5: thanks for your contribution. You write really well. I can't prove or disprove any of your assertions, but as a working discrete mathematician I can say they're well reasoned and plausible.

 

What I haven't been able to get my head around is the current B2B I'm booked on. Mediterranean, and I dig the overarching paradox that, on European sailings, the only valid rule is that no rules apply.

 

What I don't get is that it's substantially cheaper to book two cruise legs instead of the longer cruise which is also sold. Now I could see this being true for one or two random cabin classes (maybe there are lots of M1 and BB on one leg, but few on the other, which has its own surpluses of OG and BD) but a check of distributions on "Poisson" website shows this to be the case in almost every cabin class... from $50-$200 pp.

 

I would think, in general terms, the longer cruise would be "linked" to the two legs, and the prices on the long one would be calculated as (Leg A plus Leg B). Then, if anything at all, there'd be a small thank-you discount -- not an extra charge. So book the two legs, right, which I did... but where I book GTY, moving mid-cruise will be a mild PITA I just don't think I mathematically deserve.

 

Any insight on all this from what you've learned? Thanks.

[dexddd]

PP5: thanks for your contribution. You write really well. I can't prove or disprove any of your assertions, but as a working discrete mathematician I can say they're well reasoned and plausible.

 

What I haven't been able to get my head around is the current B2B I'm booked on. Mediterranean, and I dig the overarching paradox that, on European sailings, the only valid rule is that no rules apply.

 

What I don't get is that it's substantially cheaper to book two cruise legs instead of the longer cruise which is also sold. Now I could see this being true for one or two random cabin classes (maybe there are lots of M1 and BB on one leg, but few on the other, which has its own surpluses of OG and BD) but a check of distributions on "Poisson" website shows this to be the case in almost every cabin class... from $50-$200 pp.

 

I would think, in general terms, the longer cruise would be "linked" to the two legs, and the prices on the long one would be calculated as (Leg A plus Leg B). Then, if anything at all, there'd be a small thank-you discount -- not an extra charge. So book the two legs, right, which I did... but where I book GTY, moving mid-cruise will be a mild PITA I just don't think I mathematically deserve.

 

Any insight on all this from what you've learned? Thanks.

 

As a casual observation, I've seen that for NCL b2b cruises where the combined is more than buying the two separate. Not sure why other than maybe they think people don't notice it.

[duluthga]

Great post and advice.

 

Question - does the computer pricing change happen on any particular day of the week or does it happen daily?

[pokerpro5]

Great post and advice.

 

Question - does the computer pricing change happen on any particular day of the week or does it happen daily?

 

Not on any particular day of the week.

 

It seems to have a running threshold of how many booked rooms the ship is allowed to "fall behind" or "get ahead" of expectation, and then the price is adjusted. The closer it is to the cruise, the more adjustments you will typically see.

 

There is no specific day of the week or time of year where the price changes for all cruises.

[pokerpro5]

Double reply, please delete

Edited October 19, 2014 by pokerpro5

[pokerpro5]

PP5: thanks for your contribution. You write really well. I can't prove or disprove any of your assertions, but as a working discrete mathematician I can say they're well reasoned and plausible.

 

What I haven't been able to get my head around is the current B2B I'm booked on. Mediterranean, and I dig the overarching paradox that, on European sailings, the only valid rule is that no rules apply.

 

What I don't get is that it's substantially cheaper to book two cruise legs instead of the longer cruise which is also sold. Now I could see this being true for one or two random cabin classes (maybe there are lots of M1 and BB on one leg, but few on the other, which has its own surpluses of OG and BD) but a check of distributions on "Poisson" website shows this to be the case in almost every cabin class... from $50-$200 pp.

 

I would think, in general terms, the longer cruise would be "linked" to the two legs, and the prices on the long one would be calculated as (Leg A plus Leg B). Then, if anything at all, there'd be a small thank-you discount -- not an extra charge. So book the two legs, right, which I did... but where I book GTY, moving mid-cruise will be a mild PITA I just don't think I mathematically deserve.

 

Any insight on all this from what you've learned? Thanks.

 

The 14-day cruises are a more expensive product, so the people taking them are willing to pay more in general. This means they can expect a higher price per day from the average passenger than a 7-day in the same area on the same date.

 

Most people who want 14 days just book it that way, without considering splitting it into back to back 7s.

 

Furthermore, there is the inconvenience of moving rooms, unless you were able to grab the same room the whole way. Most don't want that.

 

So strangely enough, instead of rewarding the 14 day people for "buying in bulk", they are actually charged more for the same product because they're willing to pay more.

 

This is similar to why catering 50 meals is often more expensive than buying those same 50 meals individually for takeout.

[brikee]

Very informative. Thank you.

[pokerpro5]

Here is a little anecdote about nonsensical pricing, which has nothing to do with NCL.

 

In 2009, my parents booked an expensive suite on a Princess cruise and invited me to come along. They told me that the suite was easily big enough to comfortably have me in it, as well.

 

They told me the price to add me and I nearly fell off my chair. It was something absolutely crazy (not in a good way).

 

I told them to check on an inside cabin for me instead. My mom said, "I can't imagine that would be cheaper. You'll be by yourself, so we'll have to pay double. I'm sure adding you to our room will still be a better deal."

 

At my urging, she called Princess anyway. Lo and behold, the inside cabin for me wasn't only cheaper than adding me as a 3rd to their suite, it was MUCH cheaper, and that was even with the single-supplement (basically double fare) I had to pay for being a single cruiser.

 

And guess what? It happened that the inside cabin right next to their suite was available. Perfect. (This ship had no "Haven" like many NCL ships do, so there was no issue with access for me.)

 

So why was this? Why was it far more expensive for me to be an add-on to their room than to get my own room? Why was Princess basically paying me to take up another stateroom?

 

It was because they based their additional pricing on the room type, rather than simply charging for another person on board. This was stupid, as I could spend all the time in their room that I wanted. But they did it this way because they figured that most people would just pay it and not bother checking other options like I did. They especially figured that suite passengers, already willing to spend a ton of money to cruise, won't bother putting out the effort to bargain shop the 3rd and 4th passengers.

 

I tell this story because it's representative of the cruise industry in general. Pricing is tricky, and sometimes arbitrary. It counters what you are used to in other travel industries, such as hotels and flights. It is a mixture of loss-leaders (heavily discounted cabins at certain times, food) and extreme markups (onboard shopping, drinks, casino, shore excursions, etc). It can be a big bargain if you familiarize and educate yourself on how to get the best value, and it can be a surprisingly expensive and unpleasant trip if you do things wrong.

[Shawnino]

PP5, thanks for your reply.

 

If we're adding non-sensical travel industry pricing stories, here's the best one I've got:

 

I used to live in Curacao. The only cost-and-time effective way to/from Europe is the daily KLM flight to Schiphol Airport in Holland. My colleague's parents were coming to visit him, and they only lived 10 minutes from Schiphol, but when his Mum priced it out it was EUR 1750 pp, which seemed big.

 

Discussing it with a neighbour, she said they were used to paying half that, and the neighbour said that he knew someone who flew through Hamburg for much less. The Mum said she didn't know of a flight that went from Hamburg to Curacao but that wasn't what the neighbour meant. The suggestion was to book Hamburg--Curacao and return via KLM, with the connection almost certainly being made in Schiphol.

 

This seemed ludicrous, until my mother's colleague tried it: EUR 680 pp., that is, EUR 1070 pp cheaper and of course they picked the start time in Hamburg to coincide with the "connecting" flight they are going to take down anyway. I'm not sure what the train ticket was to Hamburg but as I recall total savings stayed above EUR 1000 pp.

 

I often teased my colleague with the stereotype that Dutch people are cheap. "See", he pointed out, "we're not cheap, we're just sensible and frugal." I pointed out that they could get to Hamburg a day early, spend some free time there, eat a nice meal, stay overnight to rest up, and come out well ahead. "They better not", he replied. "I told them to buy a second class train ticket 14 days in advance, and pack themselves some cheese and bread."

[havenfan]

Some observations about suite pricing.... I've been watching prices on the Haven suites for low season (Nov/Dec) sailings for the last six years, since I first became aware of them.

 

Prior to about 2.5 years ago, on underbooked sailings, NCL tended not to drop their public (internet) prices for suites very much, but kept them well above any sort of market clearing level. They then relied on the "upsell fairy" to fill the suites in what were, in effect, private unreported transactions at levels which were presumably well below the public prices.

 

First anecdote: Five years ago I saw that 8 out of 8 H4 (then known as A3) cabins were available a month before a 7-day December Miami cruise. The cabins had been listed initially at $4999pp and never fell below $4099pp, even though there were no takers. All 8 of the cabins were sold between T-4 weeks and T-3 weeks, most likely through the upsell fairy, at least 2 of which went for $1199pp (first hand knowledge).

 

More recently, NCL seem to have moved towards a descending-price ("Dutch") auction model where the internet prices of the suites drop sporadically beginning about 6-8 weeks before the cruise, more or less corresponding to the beginning of the penalty cancellation period. From NCL's standpoint, this has the benefit of broadcasting the fare reductions to a larger audience than was possible with upsell fairy's one-on-one telephone calls, thus increasing the chances that they'd match with potential customers at any given price level. However, it has the disadvantage of broadcasting the fare reductions to all previous purchasers who are then likely to want some form of compensation, and also of broadcasting more realistic clearing prices to keen observers who are then advised to wait even if they were willing to pay the full asking price.

 

Second anecdote: Two years ago I watched a H1 on a 7-day December Miami cruise go from $9999pp to $7999pp at T-8 weeks to $4299pp at T-2 days. It went for $3870pp after factoring in a 10% AARP discount (again, first hand knowledge).

 

Anyway, I just wanted to offer a counterpoint to the conventional wisdom that cruise ships fill up from the top and bottom. On certain cruises the relative demand for suites simply isn't as great as on others and lower prices can be achieved by waiting. However, what you gain in lower expected prices you give up in certainty; I outsmarted myself this year by not booking a cruise early enough only to watch the Haven fill up completely four months before sailing. The cruises on either side still have 5/8 and 3/8 H4's available. Go figure.

[Doandroidzdream]

Bookmarked :)

[pineapplepeeps]

Wow- lots to think about! Thank you for taking the time to share :). Is there a set time you usually see KSF?

[sparkinator]

Wow- lots to think about! Thank you for taking the time to share :). Is there a set time you usually see KSF?

 

We booked our upcoming Jan cruise in July. KSF was being offered when we booked.

 

KSF is a great incentive, it isn't offered on lots of dates. I've never been able to book one on summer or spring break cruises. I was researching when might be a possible time to cruise under KSF and just happened to find a date offered when my kids were out of school some of those days. We booked a 7 day, and my kids are out for a teacher workshop and MLK holiday that week, so they are only missing 3 days of school.

[Shawnino]

We booked our upcoming Jan cruise in July. KSF was being offered when we booked.

 

KSF is a great incentive, it isn't offered on lots of dates. I've never been able to book one on summer or spring break cruises. I was researching when might be a possible time to cruise under KSF and just happened to find a date offered when my kids were out of school some of those days. We booked a 7 day, and my kids are out for a teacher workshop and MLK holiday that week, so they are only missing 3 days of school.

 

PP5 states that rises and falls in rates are at least semi-independent of promotions; YMMV with the recent Perfect-10.

 

Has anyone charted if rates rise for the first two pax during KSF promotions to offset the extra pax, and if so, by how much?

[Casino Comp Chick]

PP5 states that rises and falls in rates are at least semi-independent of promotions; YMMV with the recent Perfect-10.

 

Has anyone charted if rates rise for the first two pax during KSF promotions to offset the extra pax, and if so, by how much?

 

I have seen it with zero increase (have taken advantage of it numerous times) but you have to book early in the promo as I have seen it jump 1 week into promo which would agree with pokerpro5 as rooms are booked and less availability.

Edited October 21, 2014 by iimmie

[Shawnino]

Useful, iimmie. Thanks very much.

Have we nailed down semi-exactly what times of year they do KSF? There's one in summer I think.

[Rhea98]

I'm curious about this, also, Shwanino. POA has a KSF promo. Lowest cabin is listed at $1799 (Feb. 7, 2015) when I enter two passengers for a subtotal of $3598. When I enter 3 people, price drops to $1199. for a total of $3597. The rates' comparison site shows that the lowest price for that IX category was $1199. presumably for 2 passengers. There are better deals on other non-KSF sailings ($899. IX) which would beat KSF if three people, and match KSF if 4 people.

I do look for bargains; but, like many others, if I want a certain cruise/cabin, I will book it at a price I find reasonable. I do find marketing behind the prices interesting.

This has become my favorite thread :D.

Edited October 21, 2014 by Rhea98

[Casino Comp Chick]

Useful, iimmie. Thanks very much.

Have we nailed down semi-exactly what times of year they do KSF? There's one in summer I think.

 

This year it was the KSF & the Ultimate threesome freesome: Best promo EVER!!

booking window was 2/27/14 - 3/10/14

http://www.ncl.com/nclweb/cruiser/cmsPagesPopup.html?pageId=ultimateterms&stop_mobi=yes

 

And regular KSF with Free upgrades

Booking Window: 7/1/14 - 8/2/14

http://www.ncl.com/promo/q3terms

Edited October 21, 2014 by iimmie