Heads up for those cruising the Caribbean this week - Issac

[Atocha Shipwreck Gal]

Heads up for those going on a cruise this week in the Caribbean. TS Issac looks to become Hurricane Issac and is moving west coming across the Lesser Antilles later this week. Should make for some interesting weather for those who will be near Barbados, Martinique, Antigua, the BVI and even P.R. Definitely pay attention to models and changes as it seems to change rapidly. I will be cruising in this exact area at the beginning of November. This is always the risk we take cruising during Hurricane season. So the ships may reverse some itineraries or substitute a port or two to keep guests comfortable. It is an adventure! We are far out and anything can change but it shd be watched as it may also affect some US homeports next weekend (ie, Tampa, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, etc.) Just too early to know but makes interesting reading at

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Isaac

 

335 WTNT44 KNHC 090840TCDAT4Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 7NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018The cloud pattern of Isaac has changed significantly during the pastseveral hours. The storm no longer has a sheared appearance, andinstead microwave images reveal a well-defined curved band thatwraps a little more than halfway around the center. Despite thechange in the storm's structure, the Dvorak classifications areunchanged at 3.0/45 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensityis held at 45 kt for this advisory.Now that the shear has lessened, Isaac should steadily strengthenduring the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters andin a low wind shear environment. Beyond a few days, however, theSHIPS model shows a notable increase in shear, in part due to theoutflow from Florence, which should end the strengthening trend andinduce some weakening. There was no significant change in theintensity guidance this cycle, so the official forecast is largelyan update of the previous one. This prediction lies fairlyclose to the IVCN and HCCA models.Isaac remains on the forecast track and the initial motion is thesame as before, 270/7. A strengthening subtropical ridge to thenorth of the system should cause Isaac to move westward at anincreasing forward speed during the next several days. Althoughthere is some spread in the models, the usually more reliable GFSand ECMWF models have been consistent in showing a due westwardmotion through the forecast period. The NHC track forecast leanstoward those models, and it is fairly similar to the previousprediction. Based on the current forecast, Isaac will be near theLesser Antilles in 4 to 5 days and interests there should monitorthe progress of this system.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 09/0900Z 14.5N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.6N 39.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 14.7N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 14.7N 44.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 14.7N 47.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 14.7N 53.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 14.9N 58.9W 80 KT 90 MPH120H 14/0600Z 15.3N 64.5W 70 KT 80 MPH$$Forecaster Cangialosi

[gerelmx]

[Hydrokitty]

And Isaac is not alone out there, he has a woman following him!! ;p

[Phxazzcruisers]

yep, we are on Eclipse out of Miami next Friday. Should be interesting !!

[Purplsmurf]

We are sailing to the ABC islands on Friday. If Isaac stays on a westward track then it should be around Grand Cayman next Sunday.....the day we are supposed to be there. Will be interesting to see if we skip GC and make a straight shot down to Aruba or go behind it to get to Aruba. Will be interesting! Thank goodness for drink packages! ;)

[Denny01]

And Isaac is not alone out there, he has a woman following him!! ;p

 

Helene looks like she’ll be a ‘lady’ and curve north into the Mid-Atlantic, but will watch her. Those of us on the Gulf Coast will be watching Issac closely. those storms that come in a bit southward as Issac is doing have a habit of coming up into the Gulf and someone for sure will be hit.

 

Fun and games. I must have 4 Hurricane Apps on my iPhone/iPads. A few graphics show Issac becoming a Hurricane but then after the Windwards, decreasing a bit, but in a ship, even a big ship, the difference isn’t that much.

 

As said on the Florence thread, Celebrity Line and the Capt will be planning on alternatives as the reports come in.

 

Being of the Mad Magazine generation, What? We Worry??......(yup!).

 

Den

[bigbeergut]

We are sailing to the ABC islands on Friday. If Isaac stays on a westward track then it should be around Grand Cayman next Sunday.....the day we are supposed to be there. Will be interesting to see if we skip GC and make a straight shot down to Aruba or go behind it to get to Aruba. Will be interesting! Thank goodness for drink packages! ;)

 

Or perhaps you'll just stay north and go to Nassau and Bermuda.

[gerelmx]

yep, we are on Eclipse out of Miami next Friday. Should be interesting !!

 

Are you sure?, the Eclipse is in Europe

[ezemoney]

I'll bet they meant the Equinox!

Captain Kate will keep them safe!

 

Later,

 

Ezemoney

[Phxazzcruisers]

Are you sure?, the Eclipse is in Europe

OOOps. You are correct We are on Equinox not Eclipse. I get confused....:rolleyes:

[Phxazzcruisers]

Or perhaps you'll just stay north and go to Nassau and Bermuda.

I would not want to go to Nassau and Bermuda instead. Not at all, been there done that, would not want to do those Islands again. I am sure she could find somewhere else to go if the need arises

[gerelmx]

OOOps. You are correct We are on Equinox not Eclipse. I get confused....:rolleyes:

 

We in 4 weeks cruise the Summit, also tracking the weather for New England and Canada.

 

Bon Voyge, and be safe:D

[Denny01]

Or perhaps you'll just stay north and go to Nassau and Bermuda.

Bermuda really isn’t a choice for Caribbean alternatives, it’s 950nmi north of most of the islands, and 1050nm from Miami, with nothing in between Miami and Bermuda, and it would take 3-4 days to cruise directly there, and same back.

 

Den

[Phxazzcruisers]

Bermuda really isn’t a choice for Caribbean alternatives, it’s 950nmi north of most of the islands, and 1050nm from Miami, with nothing in between Miami and Bermuda, and it would take 3-4 days to cruise directly there, and same back.

 

Den

yep, they would definitely not substitute Bermuda, but I have absolutely no desire to go to Nassau.

[Purplsmurf]

yep, they would definitely not substitute Bermuda, but I have absolutely no desire to go to Nassau.

I really don’t want to go to Nassau either, but we have to go where it’s safe. I can see us going that way and stopping there on the way to Aruba since Isaac will probably be around Grand Cayman when we are supposed to be there. Guess we will see! We probably won’t even know anything until we sail......last year we had to go to Falmouth in place of Key West...which wasn’t too exciting either.

[bigbeergut]

Bermuda really isn’t a choice for Caribbean alternatives, it’s 950nmi north of most of the islands, and 1050nm from Miami, with nothing in between Miami and Bermuda, and it would take 3-4 days to cruise directly there, and same back.

 

Den

 

 

It obviously depends on the length of the cruise. I believe the Southern Caribbean itineraries were the mentioned earlier in this post and they are typically longer cruises. There currently are a couple potential hurricanes heading toward many of the southern Caribbean islands and another storm than is forming off the Yucatan peninsula. If all of this activity develops then it is conceivable that the cruise ships won't be sent south. Spending most of the time at sea may not be ideal, but it might be the safest choice.

[riclop]

Thanks for the weather report.

[Denny01]

Issac’s forecast shows it downgrades to a Trop Storm on Thursday after it passes the Windward Islands. That can change, and a TS still brings lots of rain, wind and higher seas. Looks like it continues to go straight across the southern half of the Caribbean.

 

Interesting.

 

Den

[Denny01]

Didn’t work getting it bigger.

 

 

Den

Edited September 10, 2018 by Denny01