Direct LAX to Barcelona

[SelectSys]

21 hours ago, FlyerTalker said:

Perhaps HL Mencken put it best:  "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."

 

There is no substitute for research, no shortcut "magic date" (or dates), no secret website,  no special formula and no easy method.  And every such item that represents itself as such is nothing more than a simplistic crutch to satisfy the yearning of those who don't want to invest their time and effort but rather want the automatic ease and simplicity of instant gratification.

 

 

 

Sorry, there is nothing "magic" about a mean.  It can be calculated and estimated as can the associated variance.   With airfares this represents millions and millions of samples.  Using the mean and variance is a well practiced approach for decision making.   Perhaps Google and other sites use this type of data when they suggest tickets prices are "average" (another name for a mean) or above or below "average."

 

Are you suggesting that statistics have no value in forecasting.  In fact, in the case of airfares,  you act as if considering the mean in actually has negative value and leads one to be worse off than throwing darts.  Your only defense regarding the lack of value of statistics in this context is a a pithy quote from a satirist.  Please try something else if you wish to deny the value of statistics.

 

BTW - The fact that yield management systems exist does in fact prove the point that algorithms (i.e., formulas) exist.  

6 hours ago, waterbug123 said:

 

My rules?  I've posted a version of this numerous times before, but here goes; it's a flow chart of sorts to answer the question, "Should I buy now?"

1.  Am I willing and able to pay the price currently offered?

    -If the answer is no, I have no choice but to wait for a price drop, and possibly cancel my plans if that doesn't happen.

   -If the answer is yes, ask myself question #2

2. Am I willing and able to pay a higher price if I wait for a price drop and the price goes up instead of down?

   -If the answer is yes, I can take a gamble and wait, and hope for a price drop that may or may not come.

  -If the answer is no, buy now and don't look back.  Or look back if my ticket fare class includes the ability to cancel/change, but be aware of the change fees that will be assessed if the price does drop eventually.

 

 

 

Thanks for posting your rules.  Not guaranteed to yield the optimal result - or even a ticket! - but it probably works well for you most of the time.   Glad to see you consider change fees and other charges.

 

[waterbug123]

19 hours ago, SelectSys said:

 

Sorry, there is nothing "magic" about a mean. 

 

Thanks for posting your rules.  Not guaranteed to yield the optimal result - or even a ticket! - but it probably works well for you most of the time.   Glad to see you consider change fees and other charges.

 

 

No, there is nothing magic about a mean.  When you're talking about airline prices and best time on average to purchase, the mean is essentially meaningless though, because it factors in so much data.  What are the odds that the mean, or average day to get the best price, applies to your particular travel date, destination and time of year?    Little to none. 

 

And no, my way of booking doesn't guarantee an optimal result, and I never said it did.  My whole point is that there is no way to guarantee an optimal result.  Do some research, find out what seems to be typical, find a price you can live with and book your tickets. 

[SelectSys]

On 11/9/2019 at 4:19 PM, waterbug123 said:

Personally, I'd be hesitant to book Norwegian this far out, considering their financial situation.  Adding just a single connection would likely open up a lot of other possibilities, and break up what would otherwise be an extremely long flight.

 

Remember how this all started?  It was about waiting a while for those nervous about buying a ticket on Norwegian today for September?  If one wanted to wait awhile to see Norwegian's financial performance, my suggestion is/was that they could do so with limited upside risk in airfare price changes.  This is especially true when Norwegian's all in fares are so much better than the legacy carriers.  

 

BTW - the flying time LAX to BCN (10:50) is about the same as it is to any other western European city (the "magic" of great circle routing.)   I think the the difference in the air between LAX to LHR and LAX to BCN is roughly 20-30 minutes.   In my experience, adding a east coast stop for west coast departure just ends up burning another day rather than simply catching an overnight flight in the late afternoon/evening.  Also from my perspective, connections just add another point of failure and delay to a trip - especially in airports like LHR or CDG.  As such,  I largely disagree with you advice regarding a connection when a simple non-stop alternative exists.  Doubly so when I can save money when compared against a flight with a connection!

 

6 hours ago, waterbug123 said:

 

No, there is nothing magic about a mean.  When you're talking about airline prices and best time on average to purchase, the mean is essentially meaningless though, because it factors in so much data.  What are the odds that the mean, or average day to get the best price, applies to your particular travel date, destination and time of year?    Little to none. 

 

And no, my way of booking doesn't guarantee an optimal result, and I never said it did.  My whole point is that there is no way to guarantee an optimal result.  Do some research, find out what seems to be typical, find a price you can live with and book your tickets. 

 

Glad we agree that the calculation of a simple statistical measure isn't magic.  We can simply agree to disagree whether it has value. Like you, I suggest that a couple of rules are helpful in getting a reasonable fare.

[waterbug123]

On 11/26/2019 at 4:00 PM, SelectSys said:

  As such,  I largely disagree with you advice regarding a connection when a simple non-stop alternative exists.  Doubly so when I can save money when compared against a flight with a connection!

 

 

That's wonderful.  When I suggested considering a connection it was in response to the OP who said she could only find one nonstop flight for her trip.  And I didn't tell her to book a connecting flight, I simply said she would have more options if she did so, which is true.  If nonstop works better for you, that's wonderful.  But it isn't always the best option for everyone in every situation.