How many cruise ships sail in a week? Show me the numbers.

[nolaluv]

I am booked on a cruise scheduled to depart on 3/22/20.  I certainly understand there is not a lot of info on this novel virus. I read info daily from Johns Hopkins on https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/.  They have a really cool map that tracks the cases worldwide in great detail which to their astonishment is getting a billion hits per day.  Yesterday I listened to their 1:30p live briefing to Capitol Hill (that they will be doing daily). One of the things mentioned I had not heard before is that the test to detect for this virus is not available everywhere in the world especially so for smaller countries so not everyone has info about possible cases. I don't plan on getting off the ship and a lot of places don't want me to anyway. They also said there have been cases where the test has not been reliable, but they are working on that.  

 

I am looking for an educated guess about approximately how many cruises sail in a given month?  Given there are 3 or 4 sailings (counting the infected person who did a B2B) total we know with infected passengers, how many sailings during the past month were there that did NOT have passengers who tested positive for this virus.  I am sure that would be a negligible total percentage. I am not sure what "expert" started the petri dish comparison, but my mom called me yesterday freaking out and telling me to cancel after she saw it.

 

My husband is a kidney pancreas transplant patient and is part of the more vulnerable population since he takes medicine to suppress his immune system. I explained to her we asked the infectious disease doctor treating his (I used to be a diabetic for 15 years before my transplant😆) foot wound about being on a plane and cruise ship and extra precautions we should take and her response was "just wash your hands".  She asked what countries we were going to and after saying she didn't know about the prevalence of Corona virus in those places said she would give him a separate prescription for Augmentin in case he starts to feel sick and mentioned diarrhea.  I know if we are on the losing end of this gamble with really good odds in our favor and cruise as planned the results would not be something I could live with (mom's words) no pun intended.  I am also taking the following into consideration:

 

1. I will not be sailing on a Princess ship - they have really bad numbers on this issue.

 

2. I have a long history and a lot of training on prevention with infectious disease patients as a social worker- 8 years with HIV patients and 3 years on the infectious disease floor of a public hospital.  I have been in the room with many patients with TB which is airborne-meaning you can breathe it in and acquire the disease even after the person has left the room.  I can tell you that wearing a properly fitted N-95 mask is not something you want to do for more than 15 minutes or so because it is extremely hard to breathe in. I know more than the average about preventing transmission of bacterial and some viral infections.

 

3. With what seems to be an abundance of cancellations from what I've been reading on these boards, the number of people sailing going down means less exposure to possible hosts of this virus.

 

4.  This virus is spreading exponentially.  The experts at John Hopkins say each infected person has infected about two other people on average. 

 

5. We are booked in a sky suite and my husband can dine with a smaller number of guests.  He was told from Day 1 of his transplant a year and half ago to stay away from buffets. 

 

6.  I anticipate like some others that prices will go as the cruise industry as many other industries are losing money these days and will likely continue to lose money for at least the next few months. They way to make up revenue is to raise prices and/or lower staff, neither of which is good for me. I'm thinking it will be a more money-less service situation to book again using my credit before 2022. 

 

7. The number of people with the infection is going up not down so exposure risk for us is only going to be worse at a later date.  We are only at the beginning of this.  The experts say new vaccine development in less than 18 months is almost unheard of,  but they may have an anti-viral (like Tamil-flu) which is effective against Carona virus much sooner than that.  They are doing research where I live at a primate center and people here are freaking out about their risk of exposure from that🤷‍♀️.  I am hopeful they will find an effective antiviral soon but the experts don't seem that hopeful about a remedy for the continued spread of the virus anytime soon. 

 

8. Based on numbers our exposure risk is really low, but higher than when we are in other public spaces. 

 

9.I am sailing on a ship called the "Edge" and there's so much irony in that these days. 🤔

 

9. This post is entirely too long, but so are all of the thoughts in my head about this whole thing.😵 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by nolaluv

[Covepointcruiser]

With your health history it seems foolhardy to get on a ship right now.   I know we all will die someday but why hasten it.   You have already been given the gift of a better life through donor’s giving up their organs so I would expect you to be more careful.    I am sure you have the opportunity to cancel and get a FCC for a cruise at a better time.   Being in a suite gives you less opportunity to get away from fellow passengers in the smaller restaurant and in the very small retreat areas.

[mahdnc]

@nolaluv

 

I guess you are asking how many cruise ships there are in the world.  I have no idea, so I googled it: https://cruisemarketwatch.com/capacity/

 

314 cruise ships in 2018 according to that source.

Edited March 8, 2020 by mahdnc

[expatcruiser88]

Firstly, I love your post and the amount of over thinking and research you are doing!

 

Secondly, A LOT! these are the numbers for 2018...

 

Total worldwide ocean cruise capacity at the end of 2018 will be 537,000 passengers and 314 ships. Annualized total passengers carried worldwide will be 26.0 million

[mahdnc]

3 minutes ago, expatcruiser88 said:

Firstly, I love your post and the amount of over thinking and research you are doing!

 

Secondly, A LOT! these are the numbers for 2018...

 

Total worldwide ocean cruise capacity at the end of 2018 will be 537,000 passengers and 314 ships. Annualized total passengers carried worldwide will be 26.0 million

 

Yes.  So I guess about 1% of the ships have been confirmed to be infected.  Now if we can keep the ships at least 6 feet apart from one another......

[nolaluv]

21 minutes ago, mahdnc said:

 

Yes.  So I guess about 1% of the ships have been confirmed to be infected.  Now if we can keep the ships at least 6 feet apart from one another......

EXACTLY what I was trying to estimate.  Thanks for the input. About 1% of cruises have been affected by people who are infected. I plan to keep a watchful eye out for new cruise ships being affected after all of the extra precautions have been implemented.  I think all of the the extra precautions should reduce the risk of getting this infection even more. It also might give more validity to the "petri dish" comparison if we continue to see this happening other ships after cruise lines are more aware of the need for infection prevention and control.  

[nolaluv]

1 hour ago, Covepointcruiser said:

With your health history it seems foolhardy to get on a ship right now.   I know we all will die someday but why hasten it.   You have already been given the gift of a better life through donor’s giving up their organs so I would expect you to be more careful.    I am sure you have the opportunity to cancel and get a FCC for a cruise at a better time.   Being in a suite gives you less opportunity to get away from fellow passengers in the smaller restaurant and in the very small retreat areas.

I certainly understand your point, this is something I think about more than I should and more than my husband does too. His answer to my mother was "I gotta live".  While there's a lot of reason for the panic we've seen, I don't think all of it is for good cause in the places outside of the China, Korea and Italy where it truly is an epidemic. 

 

His transplant team said the point of having a transplant was not only to extend his life but for him to get back to life like it was before he had kidney disease.They advised him he needed to balance all of his new cautions with more life.  He never stopped working while on dialysis although he had significantly less energy and didn't always feel well and could not walk as far. He works for a family owned business that let(s) him attend a ton of MD appointments. His receptionist always made the point he only was at work about 5 hours per week  before his transplant but he sold more than the sales person who was there full-time.  

[bEwAbG]

While the screening will stop obviously sick people from getting on ships, it will do nothing to catch those who are carrying the virus but asymptomatic.  There is nothing that could screen for that short of giving everyone a coronavirus test before allowing them to board and then keeping them only on the ship for the duration of the cruise.  That's just not going to happen.

 

As far as your list is concerned, Princess is not doing anything different other than those ships sailed from the West Coast where the number of confirmed cases is higher, so there might have been better odds of an infected person being on the ship.  However, confirmed cases have been rapidly popping up on the East Coast this week.  It's not a matter of "if" but "when" a ship on this side of the U.S. will run into the same issues.

 

I think the doctor to ask would be the one who did the transplant.  In general, it's better to think about how an individual would handle the virus versus relying on guesstimates of the probability of catching something.  Deaths have been occurring in people who cannot fight it off once they do catch it.  If your doctor is (or is not) concerned about that aspect, I think it would give you better guidance than trying to rationalize on here.

[nolaluv]

1 hour ago, bEwAbG said:

While the screening will stop obviously sick people from getting on ships, it will do nothing to catch those who are carrying the virus but asymptomatic.  There is nothing that could screen for that short of giving everyone a coronavirus test before allowing them to board and then keeping them only on the ship for the duration of the cruise.  That's just not going to happen.

 

As far as your list is concerned, Princess is not doing anything different other than those ships sailed from the West Coast where the number of confirmed cases is higher, so there might have been better odds of an infected person being on the ship.  However, confirmed cases have been rapidly popping up on the East Coast this week.  It's not a matter of "if" but "when" a ship on this side of the U.S. will run into the same issues.

 

I think the doctor to ask would be the one who did the transplant.  In general, it's better to think about how an individual would handle the virus versus relying on guesstimates of the probability of catching something.  Deaths have been occurring in people who cannot fight it off once they do catch it.  If your doctor is (or is not) concerned about that aspect, I think it would give you better guidance than trying to rationalize on here.

 

[nolaluv]

27 minutes ago, nolaluv said:

 

Agreed except for Princess.  Being the info junkie I am I have been obsessing over the CC boards it seems there is ANOTHER PRINCESS ship with issues.  According to a Carnival thread one crew member who worked the ship with the 19 crew members worked the ROYAL PRINCESS ship as well. 

But wait, there's more on the Carnival boards. Carnival Panorama passengers who returned this morning and have not been allowed to debark and the passengers on board posting to CC says Carnival lied to them about what was going on most of the day.  Someone on board failed a CDC screen and is being tested somewhere and the results take at least 6-8 hours to come back. They are spending at least 1 extra night on board because the tests allegedly have not come back yet. 

 

I saw a link on the Carnival boards about numbers that was a good (theoretically) but disturbing.  I will share it after I eat because my brain needs food and rest. 

Edited March 8, 2020 by nolaluv

[jelayne]

For us the numbers don't matter.  The latest Princess incident started with 1 person with no symptoms  who had been in Italy, nothing that Princess or any other cruise line could anticipate at that time.   
 

We too are booked on the Edge.  For us it us the TA and a week ago we were thinking maybe we should switch to something closer to home.  Now the Princess ship let us know location isn’t a guarantee of no virus.  
 

I don’t have the same issues as your DH but my doctors are always concerned that pneumonia would be a problem.  So we are thinking that not cruising for the next 5-6 months will go a long way to not risking our being able to cruise for the years to come.

[MMastell]

2 hours ago, nolaluv said:

I certainly understand your point, this is something I think about more than I should and more than my husband does too. His answer to my mother was "I gotta live".  While there's a lot of reason for the panic we've seen, I don't think all of it is for good cause in the places outside of the China, Korea and Italy where it truly is an epidemic. 

 

His transplant team said the point of having a transplant was not only to extend his life but for him to get back to life like it was before he had kidney disease.They advised him he needed to balance all of his new cautions with more life.  He never stopped working while on dialysis although he had significantly less energy and didn't always feel well and could not walk as far. He works for a family owned business that let(s) him attend a ton of MD appointments. His receptionist always made the point he only was at work about 5 hours per week  before his transplant but he sold more than the sales person who was there full-time.  

 

I am under very similar circumstances. I had a heart transplant a year ago and I am doing fine. My cardiologist and the Transplant Travel Pharmacist agree that I should take the same precautions I do now with hand washing, wiping down cabin, tables, hand sanitizing, etc. and go. If things become much worse or there is an outbreak on the ship before sailing then cancel but otherwise enjoy life. We are booked on the 5/21 Solstice, Alaska cruise and taking Seabourn to Antarctica next January.

 

Take care,

Mike

[nolaluv]

2 hours ago, nolaluv said:

 He works for a family owned business that let(s) him attend a ton of MD appointments. His receptionist always made the point he only was at work about 5 hours per week  before his transplant but he sold more than the sales person who was there full-time.  

This should be 5 hours per day.  If he were that good, I'd have him work overtime everyday and then charter a yacht instead of booking a cruise ship. 

[nolaluv]

33 minutes ago, MMastell said:

If things become much worse or there is an outbreak on the ship before sailing then cancel but otherwise enjoy life.

 

I think this is going to be the plan for us as well, although my husband thinks it might be a "ghost ship" by the time we sail.

BTW, I am envious, our transplant team doesn't have a travel pharmacist.  We only have regular transplant pharmacists.  Thanks for sharing your story.  From your upcoming plans, I can see your are living.  If we cancel, I will be checking out the Alaskan cruise 

[nolaluv]

We are definitely deferring this cruise until sometime later. The CDC is recommending all cruise ship travel be postponed, especially vulnerable populations. We will follow their advice.