Chairman of Carnival UK on Sky News NOW

[Selbourne]

David Dingle, Chairman of Carnival UK, being interviewed live on Ian King Live (Sky News) 0930-1000 on the subject of “Will we ever go back to cruising”

Edited April 29, 2020 by Selbourne

[CCFC]

He cant have been on long, just tuned in and its about BA!

[Selbourne]

Just now, CCFC said:

He cant have been on long, just tuned in and its about BA!

He’s not been on yet. Keep watching...

[CCFC]

Ahh, thanks.

[Eglesbrech]

David Dingle vague about when cruising will restart.

He thinks demand will be unaffected by this due to the “many, many loyal customers”. It will be business as usual when they restart.

 

Asked if competitors may go bust he suggested that most have managed to get loans or furlough staff. He said the gov should extend furlough beyond June to help the industry.

No questions about customer’s unfortunately. One about suppliers.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Eglesbrech

[Selbourne]

Ian King Live - Interview with David Dingle, Chairman Carnival UK

 

Not terribly informative in the end, but here’s the transcript for those that missed it

 

IK - 139 jobs are being lost every day in the cruise industry. It was one of the first sectors to close down after ships were left stranded off the mainland with increasing numbers of passengers struck down with the Cornovirus. New data suggests that the industry is worth £10bn to the economy each year, so how and when can the sector recover?

 

IK - David, how long before we can see cruise ships operating again? Is it possible to give any indication?

 

DD - I think it’s quite difficult at the moment Ian. Let’s face it, we don’t know yet when any aspects of the current lockdown are going to be lifted, so it’s a hard projection for us to make. Clearly we are keen to be able to start operating as soon as is sensible, and by sensible I mean having agreed appropriate health regulations in order for us to start operating again, but exactly when that will be is hard to tell at the moment. 

 

IK - I notice that all the newspapers are still carrying all the regular advertisements and promotions for cruise holidays. You are still anticipating a return to demand at some point in the future?

 

DD - I don’t think that there’s any doubt that demand will return. We have a very loyal customer base and indeed it’s very refreshing to see for instance in letters published in newspapers from regular cruise customers who are itching to get back on board and we hope to be able to take them on board again as soon as possible. 

 

IK - So what sort of level of demand destruction, if I can use that jargon, do you think you might see?

 

DD - Again, that’s a tough projection. I think when we can start we might grow progressively. It will depend on the extent to which other countries begin to open their borders, so that we’re able to conduct attractive itineraries so it is going to take some while but I think that demand will begin to come back when we can put our offers back on the market. It will take a while though. 

 

IK - David, your parent company Carnival was very quick to raise new capital, do you worry about other operators in the industry? Is there a possibility that some of your competitors may go bust?

 

DD - I understand that cruise companies in general have been able to garner support, not just through loan schemes and, of course, they will be making their own arrangements as appropriate but also with the government furlough scheme. That has helped us to keep our costs under control. It’s very very welcome and it’s particularly welcome that that scheme is being moved forward to 30th June. I do believe that it will be necessary for it to continue beyond that date, particularly for industries such as ours which are complex. We have a number of factors to consider before we can start operating and therefore a big ask from us would be more thought about extending that scheme even beyond the current date.

 

IK - What about the industries that support the cruise sector. Are you concerned about the financial health of parts of that?

 

DD - Yes. These are very often small and medium size enterprises. Their role in supporting us in the UK is critical. We take cruise ships to 50 different ports in this country, from Falmouth to the Orkney’s and Shetlands and we have many people, from bus and taxi drivers, tour guides, restaurants, local food suppliers etc etc all of whom depend on our industry. We need them to survive, so we ask the government to work very collaboratively with us, and they are already doing so, to ensure that we can come back on stream at a sensible time, as soon as possible, so that all those industries can have the risks that they see reduced and that they be given more certainty. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Selbourne

[Selbourne]

32 minutes ago, Eglesbrech said:

David Dingle vague about when cruising will restart.

He thinks demand will be unaffected by this due to the “many, many loyal customers”. It will be business as usual when they restart.

 

Asked if competitors may go bust he suggested that most have managed to get loans or furlough staff. He said the gov should extend furlough beyond June to help the industry.

No questions about customer’s unfortunately. One about suppliers.

He didn’t say it would be business as usual when they restart. He said it would be progressive and take a while. See transcript above. 

[Eglesbrech]

Just now, Selbourne said:

He didn’t say it would be business as usual when they restart. He said it would be progressive and take a while. See transcript above. 

Apologies if I caused any confusion, I was referring to the loyal customer base coming back.

[Eddie99]

More from ITV news

 

” ... rigorous health checks, no self service buffet, one-way systems ...”

 

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-29/cruise-passengers-to-face-rigorous-medical-checks-before-being-allow-to-travel/

 

What do you reckon?  Given the apparent inability of many to understand how lifts operate, or the importance of hand hygiene, one has to be a little sceptical

[AndyMichelle]

I wonder how much their reliance on Furlough is affecting refunds... 

Andy 

[davecttr]

Can you make a profit if there are 1000 passengers on a 3000 passenger ship?

[Selbourne]

6 minutes ago, AndyMichelle said:

I wonder how much their reliance on Furlough is affecting refunds... 

Andy 

Yes, that crossed my mind too Andy, but my understanding is that the staff they have furloughed are some of the non customer facing staff and not the ones who man the call centre, some of whom are working from home and some are in the offices. 

[AndyMichelle]

4 minutes ago, davecttr said:

Can you make a profit if there are 1000 passengers on a 3000 passenger ship?

Probably not, but if they have to agree to it to start the ball rolling, I'm sure they would.. 

Andy 

[Selbourne]

2 minutes ago, davecttr said:

Can you make a profit if there are 1000 passengers on a 3000 passenger ship?

No. I think the ‘profit’ comes from the last 10% (20% max) to fill the ship plus on board spend. Too many fixed costs for it to operate at a profit with only one third of the passengers - unless the business model can be changed beyond all recognition, which although unlikely, I guess you cannot rule out. Would be a very different experience though. 

[Selbourne]

17 minutes ago, Eddie99 said:

More from ITV news

 

” ... rigorous health checks, no self service buffet, one-way systems ...”

 

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-29/cruise-passengers-to-face-rigorous-medical-checks-before-being-allow-to-travel/

 

What do you reckon?  Given the apparent inability of many to understand how lifts operate, or the importance of hand hygiene, one has to be a little sceptical

I’m sure that when cruising does eventually resume, it will be a different experience, but I just don’t get the bit about health screening. It is physically impossible to be able to establish if a passenger is boarding with the virus as they can demonstrate no symptoms and even a proper Covid-19 test takes a few days to establish a result, by which time the passenger(s) will have infected countless others and then you have an outbreak!

[Son of Anarchy]

24 minutes ago, davecttr said:

Can you make a profit if there are 1000 passengers on a 3000 passenger ship?

 

17 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

No. I think the ‘profit’ comes from the last 10% (20% max) to fill the ship plus on board spend. Too many fixed costs for it to operate at a profit with only one third of the passengers - unless the business model can be changed beyond all recognition, which although unlikely, I guess you cannot rule out. Would be a very different experience though. 

 

From what I've been told, one of the most expensive cost to running a cruise ship is fuel (apart from initial cost of the ship of course and crew wages).

 

Apparently some cruise ship operators have fixed the price of fuel for their ships for a period of time (don't know how long).

 

Effectively those that have managed to do this will be paying the current low prices even when the prices go up again in the future.  

 

Whether this saving on fuel will be sufficient to offset against less passengers?...maybe the bean counters at Carnival House and it's rival equivalents will know.

[mickrory]

Keep getting amazing Cruise offers for January 2021 onwards at rock bottom prices.

Longer term once these "guinea pig" cruises have sailed safely we'll be tempted back but I'm expecting the prices to rise steeply to reduce their debts. Airfares and holiday insurance will also rise steeply.

Perhaps a week in Bognor will be on the cards next summer.

 

[pete14]

What amused me about the interview was the film clip of Adonia with a yellow funnel. Really up to date video research.

[grapau27]

46 minutes ago, davecttr said:

Can you make a profit if there are 1000 passengers on a 3000 passenger ship?

If you charge 3 times the price to those 1000 passengers you would

 

[funinhounslow]

41 minutes ago, grapau27 said:

If you charge 3 times the price to those 1000 passengers you would

 

And get them all to triple their on board spend...

[tring]

Thanks for the transcript Selbourne.

 

Thinking about what Matt Hancock said on the daily briefing recently, when he admitted it would be necessary to have quarantine for people entering the country when we go into the 'Track and Trace' phase and that other countries are planning the same.  I do not see how this could allow one day cruise ship visits so could be quite some time before we see any cruises, unless they offer cruises without ports.  Not something that would appeal to me now but after being stuck in the UK for a while I may just go for a cruise into warmer waters or north bound for some whale watching and scenic cruising.

 

Regards the interview the words, "He would say that wouldn't he" come to mind.

Edited April 29, 2020 by tring

[Eddie99]

I wonder if they could offer ‘Round Britain’ cruises?

I guess some ports would be delighted to welcome tourists? 

Lots of potential pitfalls, including (presumably) that they couldn’t buy their booze duty-free and make a good profit selling at pub prices

But it’s not ‘abroad’ and there might be a way of dealing with any confirmed or suspected cases.  Who knows?

 

[Selbourne]

1 hour ago, Son of Anarchy said:

 

 

From what I've been told, one of the most expensive cost to running a cruise ship is fuel (apart from initial cost of the ship of course and crew wages).

 

Apparently some cruise ship operators have fixed the price of fuel for their ships for a period of time (don't know how long).

 

Effectively those that have managed to do this will be paying the current low prices even when the prices go up again in the future.  

 

Whether this saving on fuel will be sufficient to offset against less passengers?...maybe the bean counters at Carnival House and it's rival equivalents will know.

Yes, fuel is a big cost. I remember doing a ‘behind the scenes tour’ and being told what the fuel cost was for the cruise we were on. Can’t recall exactly but I remember doing some rough maths based on number of passengers and it was a meaningful, if not huge, percentage of the fare. I suspect that they do hedge some of their fuel costs but they also take advantage of local opportunities and it amazed me to learn that they carry a credit card to pay for fuel in ports! They probably aren’t being too confident in futures markets at the moment, given that they don’t know when they will be sailing again, and it probably follows that oil prices will have recovered by the time there is more certainty, as the price is probably driven by known and predicted demand. Although there might be some savings to make, I suspect that it would be wiped out by just a few percent less passengers, let alone a third or more. All I know for certain is that I wouldn’t want to be working in the cruise industry at present. You’d need a crystal ball. 

[jeanlyon]

and also doesn't cover the problem that there will not be travel insurance cover for this virus.  So if you get ill on board with it, or the ship is quarantined, there is no cover.

[Selbourne]

9 minutes ago, Eddie99 said:

I wonder if they could offer ‘Round Britain’ cruises?

I guess some ports would be delighted to welcome tourists? 

Lots of potential pitfalls, including (presumably) that they couldn’t buy their booze duty-free and make a good profit selling at pub prices

But it’s not ‘abroad’ and there might be a way of dealing with any confirmed or suspected cases.  Who knows?

 

Round Britain cruises hugely appeal to me, and I’ve wanted to do one for a while, but they don’t address the key issue as far as I am concerned, which is that cruise ships are Petri dishes for the spread of viruses. For as long as there remains a risk of an undetectable infected person boarding you won’t even get me on a Round Britain cruise until we are vaccinated. When it is completely safe to cruise again (18 months time?) my fantasy Round Britain cruise would include Falmouth, Bristol, Liverpool, Belfast, Glasgow, Several of the Western Isles of Scotland, Orkneys, Shetland, Edinburgh, Newcastle & London. However, by the time it’s safe to cruise again I guess the foreign ports will be open again and Round UK cruises will be as rare as hens teeth again!