Substantial Doubt of 'Going Concern'

[Fido Chuckwagon]

2 hours ago, seaman11 said:

it certainly isnt a hoax, but couldnt it be something in the middle?  like we shouldn't huddle in a corner and cry till 2021 , and we should not be gathering around on top of each other right now. 

 

there has to be a middle ground somewhere. 

Perhaps, but no way no how does the middle ground involve the resumption of cruising anytime soon.  Cruising was and is a huge vector for this thing.  As we learned from the Diamond Princess way back in February, all it takes is *one* person to infect half of a cruise ship.  Those people then return home and cause outbreaks everywhere.  Cruising absolutely played a huge role in spreading this thing, especially in the Caribbean.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Fido Chuckwagon

[Fido Chuckwagon]

2 hours ago, Newleno said:

You might want to ask this same question to yourself because I got NEWS for you, there is no news!  The vast majority of information flowing is from partisans and most likely should not be believed.  You must go directly to the source, perhaps a video in its entirety.  Perhaps actual records (aka not a quote of someone's interpretation of a record,etc)  Lets all take Philosophy 101 Introduction to Logic and start over.

My comment was directed to Seaman who appears reasonable and open to discussion.  Your post indicates that you are not.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Fido Chuckwagon

[Fido Chuckwagon]

34 minutes ago, richstowe said:

Oh gee thanks .

It is a different world now and soon enough it will be the same world . This too shall pass .

It will never be the *same* world again.  In the same way that travel changed forever after 9/11, this will forever change the world as well, and will especially change leisure travel.  Forever.  

[SAPMAN]

3 minutes ago, Fido Chuckwagon said:

My comment was directed to Seaman who appears reasonable and open to discussion.  Your post does not.

My question to you:  How many deaths will there be by Aug 2020?   And at what level would it have to drop before you would think people would start cruising again.?

 

[seaman11]

4 minutes ago, Fido Chuckwagon said:

Perhaps, but no way no how does the middle ground involve the resumption of cruising anytime soon.  Cruising was and is a huge vector for this thing.  As we learned from the Diamond Princess way back in February, all it takes is *one* person to infect half of a cruise ship.

I think cruises have been unfairly vilified , sure it could spread , however norwegian had only 3 reported cases that whole time before shutdown. its not like cruises started this thing . 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

14 minutes ago, SAPMAN said:

My question to you:  How many deaths will there be by Aug 2020?   And at what level would it have to drop before you would think people would start cruising again.?

 

I think even conservatively by this point we’re looking at more American dead by August from Coronavirus then all the Americans who died in World War I.  Depending upon how all these super-fast re-openings that a lot of Southern States are engaging in right now go, we are drawing live to more American dead sometime this year from Coronavirus then all the Americans who died in World War II.

[Fido Chuckwagon]

21 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

I think cruises have been unfairly vilified , sure it could spread , however norwegian had only 3 reported cases that whole time before shutdown. its not like cruises started this thing . 

Cruises didn’t start the thing.  But cruises are just not safe right now.  Again, this thing is ridiculously contagious.  It’s so widespread right now that there is simply no way that a cruise ship can ensure that no positive passengers get onboard right now, especially given the large number of asymptomatic and presymptomatic carriers who are nonetheless contagious.  And a week plus locked with 4,000 people (really 2,000 because lets be honest, these ships are going to sail half empty), is a recipe for disaster.  This isn’t hypothetical.  We know exactly what happens when this thing gets loose on cruise ships because we have watched it happen.  You cannot contain this thing on a cruise ship.  The Diamond Princess had widespread transmission even after locking everyone into their staterooms.  Cruise ships that have ditched all their passengers are still experiencing widespread transmission amongst the crewmembers still on board.  The close quarters of a cruise ship are the perfect breeding ground.  

Edited May 6, 2020 by Fido Chuckwagon

[billyu]

21 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

I think cruises have been unfairly vilified , sure it could spread , however norwegian had only 3 reported cases that whole time before shutdown. its not like cruises started this thing . 

Cruising did not start it but it definitely contributed to the spread of the virus.  
 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

1 minute ago, billyu said:

Cruising did not start it but it definitely contributed to the spread of the virus.  
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/cruise-ships-coronavirus/

 

[SAPMAN]

1 hour ago, Fido Chuckwagon said:

I think even conservatively by this point we’re looking at more American dead by August from Coronavirus then all the Americans who died in World War I.  Depending upon how all these super-fast re-openings that a lot of Southern States are engaging in right now go, we are drawing live to more American dead sometime this year from Coronavirus then all the Americans who died in World War II.

So you are saying over 116,000 deaths by Aug and 416,000 by end of the year. ?   So a huge increase in the last 5-6 months.  Maybe so and, if so, travel will be severely impacted.  However, I believe your numbers are very high - especially for the end of the year.   We will need to look back and see.  

[Fido Chuckwagon]

7 minutes ago, SAPMAN said:

So you are saying over 116,000 deaths by Aug and 416,000 by end of the year. ?   So a huge increase in the last 5-6 months.  Maybe so and, if so, travel will be severely impacted.  However, I believe your numbers are very high - especially for the end of the year.   We will need to look back and see.  

116,000 by August is almost definitely happening.  My reference ‘we are drawing live to’ doesn’t mean that i think it’s going to happen for the 416,000, just that it’s possible.  But yeah, we’re at 71,000 right now, states that are reopening are on the upswing, we’re definitely getting to 116,000, likely way before August.

[Travelling2Some]

4 hours ago, tallnthensome said:

I say it in a friendly banter way that Seaman has been wrong with every post he has made in the last month but he is by far the most optimistic person you’ll find to his credit  though, lol! 

Yup.  I totally agree.  NCL will very likely file bankruptcy and a lot of us may loose money.  BUT Seaman is a very upbeat character and I like him.  So . . . . can we keep him . . . please?

[SAPMAN]

1 minute ago, Fido Chuckwagon said:

116,000 by August is almost definitely happening.  My reference ‘we are drawing live to’ doesn’t mean that i think it’s going to happen for the 416,000, just that it’s possible.  But yeah, we’re at 71,000 right now, states that are reopening are on the upswing, we’re definitely getting to 116,000, likely way before August.

Maybe if you don't think the 416,000 is likely, you should not state that number.  I guess one could say (and some have) that 616,000  million is possible.    But most respected say now that the death rate will be much lower by August. 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

2 minutes ago, SAPMAN said:

Maybe if you don't think the 416,000 is likely, you should not state that number.  I guess one could say (and some have) that 616,000  million is possible.    But most respected say now that the death rate will be much lower by August. 

“Drawing Live To” is a poker term.  If we do things like allow the cruise industry to restart this summer then our death totals are going to be way higher. 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Fido Chuckwagon

[fshagan]

12 hours ago, Corliss said:

They are required in their securities filings to determine if they are a "going concern" for the next 12 months and if there are doubts about having adequate finances for that they must issue a "substantial doubt going concern" warning in their filings.  But, as they outlined in the filing they are working on steps to mitigate their situation.

 

It has been expected that lots of companies are going to have to issue going concern warnings during this pandemic shut down.

 

https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2020/apr/going-concern-tips-for-auditors-during-coronavirus-pandemic.html

 

It's either required, or at least standard, to see those comments in the SEC filings. They are almost boilerplate as they all seem so similar when I have seen them. 

[fshagan]

6 hours ago, hamrag said:

 But who, in their right mind, would buy them right now? 😉

 

Buy low, sell high. It's a buyer's market.

 

[BulldustHHH]

You wonder if a group like Genting would be on the prowl right now. If the price is right maybe some group like that will jump in.

[cksv]

They ended up raising all that they asked for and more, albeit at a very high interest rate and dilutive to the stock. Will give them plenty of cash to stay in operation for at least a year though. Hopefully we can get the economy opened back up by then, if not we’ve got bigger problems on our hands! 

Norwegian Cruise Line raises $2.2bn in fight to stay afloat
https://www.ft.com/content/2e8d9853-26a5-40f5-999c-b5b428306a85

Norwegian Cruise Boosts Bond With Lure of Double-Digit Yield

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-05/norwegian-cruise-seeks-2-billion-financing-to-shore-up-cash

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by cksv

[cksv]

2.2B to add to the bank. Some excerpts:

* The debt-and-equity fundraising was eventually raised to $1.8bn on the back of strong investor demand, according to people familiar with the deal.

* The company raised $400m of fresh equity, up from an initial plan of $350m, as well as over $1.4bn through two bond offerings. A $675m secured bond deal gives investors two of the company’s ships and two islands as part of the collateral, according to a filing.

* The company still had to pay up for the fresh cash, despite the assets backing the deal, with a coupon of 12.25 per cent on the four-year secured bond — although that was down from expectations of 12.5 per cent earlier in the day.

* It also announced that the buyout firm L Catterton was investing $400m in one of its subsidiaries, NCL Corp, and will be entitled to a board seat and one board observer.

Edited May 6, 2020 by cksv

[Corliss]

ASU scientific team finds new, unique mutation in coronavirus study

SARS-CoV-2 mutation mirrors one found during 2003 SARS outbreak

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-05/asu-ast050420.php

 

Researchers said they have identified a mutation in samples obtained from patients who have been tested for COVID-19 that may indicate the virus is weakening and that potentially mirror a similar genetic mutation that occurred during the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 and 2004, according to an accepted manuscript of a study published in the Journal of Virology on May 1.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/early-research-indicates-the-coronavirus-has-mutated-similar-to-sars-2020-05-05

 

[Trimone]

4 hours ago, cksv said:

2.2B to add to the bank. Some excerpts:

* The debt-and-equity fundraising was eventually raised to $1.8bn on the back of strong investor demand, according to people familiar with the deal.

* The company raised $400m of fresh equity, up from an initial plan of $350m, as well as over $1.4bn through two bond offerings. A $675m secured bond deal gives investors two of the company’s ships and two islands as part of the collateral, according to a filing.

* The company still had to pay up for the fresh cash, despite the assets backing the deal, with a coupon of 12.25 per cent on the four-year secured bond — although that was down from expectations of 12.5 per cent earlier in the day.

* It also announced that the buyout firm L Catterton was investing $400m in one of its subsidiaries, NCL Corp, and will be entitled to a board seat and one board observer.

Haven’t they already got a 6 BN rolling debt?

[Corliss]

UC San Diego to mass test students for the coronavirus as a step to resume on-campus courses

 

https://ktla.com/news/california/uc-san-diego-to-mass-test-students-for-the-coronavirus-as-a-step-to-resume-on-campus-courses/

[boatseller]

Sorry, late to the game here.

Such language should surprise no one and is to prevent shareholder lawsuits and ward off potential takeover attempts.  Yawn.

Bickering about the state of the ccv is becoming almost pointless.  I know there will be carriers on my upcoming cruises.  It's ridiculous to think otherwise and I guarantee you, everyone sailing for the rest of the year understands that.

[Corliss]

US military research agency developing new test for Covid-19

Darpa says its breakthrough technology could be manufactured at large scale

 

Scientists involved in the project said they hoped it could diagnose the disease as early as 24 hours after exposure — around four days quicker than existing tests.  As many people do not develop symptoms until around five days after being infected, and some not at all, this would significantly reduce the time contagious carriers are potentially able to spread the virus.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-darpa-test-early-echo-chemical-biological-warfare-a9495311.html

[pghflyer]

Thanks for facts and keeping on point @cksv.  NCLH has 214.53M shares outstanding with a $2.4B market cap before all this shoring up of their access to financing. So basically if they issue all their ordinary shares in the offering (@$11 each) plus those extra allocated by June, that would be about $460M and existing shareholders will be dilluted by around 19-20%.   I am guessing these newly issued shares will be used for the below notes and Catterton investment, at least I hope because otherwise issuing even more new shares for those would be a significantly larger dilution. 

 

Anyhow, on top of the ordinary shares being issued, they have $1.425B of exchangeable and senior secured notes.  The $750M exchangeable can become shares at a 25% premium (@$13.75) to the ordinary share offering price, so that could be another dilution of around 25% if coming from newly issued shares (granted at a currently unappealing premium price). Unclear if any ordinary stock is involved for the senior notes. The $400M from Catterton can also be exchanged into ordinary shares, so that would be another dilution of probably 10+% if coming from newly issued shares.   

 

Just quick calculations and read through of the press releases, so perhaps I missed some finer points......but my take away is they should be well financed to weather another year of stormy markets BUT it all is being paid for at double digit interest rates and severe dilution of shareholders (albeit, still a better option than bankruptcy), some of which should already be reflective in yesterday's 23% price fall.

 

http://www.nclhltdinvestor.com/press-releases

Edited May 6, 2020 by pghflyer