Analyst: No Cruises Until At Least 2nd Quarter 2021

[Joe817]

Very interesting article Eli! Thanks for posting! 

[Eli_6]

 

Here are some a links to the Oxford/AZ vaccine trial going on in the UK, South Africa and Brazil.  They have already begun Stage 3:

 

https://www-news--medical-net.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20200705/Oxford-COVID-19-vaccine-trials-move-to-stage-3-human-trials.aspx?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASDYAQE%3D#aoh=15950970205015&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.news-medical.net%2Fnews%2F20200705%2FOxford-COVID-19-vaccine-trials-move-to-stage-3-human-trials.aspx

 

https://m-timesofindia-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/m.timesofindia.com/life-style/health-fitness/health-news/coronavirus-vaccine-update-good-news-about-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-expected-today-says-a-new-report/amp_etphotostory/76993153.cms?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASDYAQE%3D#aoh=15950970205015&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-15/oxford-s-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-coronavirus-front-runner

[Eli_6]

Here is the published results of phase 1 trial in the New England Journal of Medicine on one of the vaccines.  I *think* this is the Kaiser vaccine, though, and not AZ, Pfizer or Moderna who are all further along:

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022483

 

I think the most promising right now is AZ. 

[Joe817]

Wow! Thanks so much Eli! This sounds so promising, that it lifted my spirits. There's hope on the horizon. 

[Eli_6]

There is also more and more evidence coming out about the effectiveness of masks and social distancing in preventing spread.  There is a great meta-analysis in The Lancet.  I am having trouble posting a PDF of it, but here is a link to an article about the article: https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-06/tl-pss060120.php

 

If you Google "Lancet article on mask wearing" you can find the original published meta-analysis. How or if this helps us to get cruising again, I don't know...

 

I know where I live people are still going to packed resorts like the Margaritaville resort that recently opened. I have seen several of my Facebook friends there this weekend and last sans face mask despite a mask order.  Quite frankly, it both concerns me and makes me mad considering Houston is a hot spot right now.  

 

 

 

[Texbam]

While a vaccine may be successfully created in the near term, it appears long lasting immunity is still a huge question. From a recent San Francisco Chronicle article, “I just don’t see a vaccine coming anytime soon,” said Nevan Krogan, a molecular biologist and director of UCSF’s Quantitative Biosciences Institute, which works in partnership with 100 research laboratories. “People do have antibodies, but the antibodies are waning quickly.” And if antibodies diminish, “then there is a good chance the immunity from a vaccine would wane too.”

The latest bad news came from scientists at King’s College of London, whose study of 90 COVID-19 patients in the United Kingdom found antibody levels peaked three weeks after the onset of symptoms and then dramatically declined.”

And per a Telegraph article, scientists have identified 6 different strains, so the dang thing is mutating rapidly which would seem to further complicate matters. Will be interesting to watch the battle of scientist versus virus...hopefully scientist wins this one.


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[irisb]

I am hoping to participate in the Phase 3 Moderna study AND start cruising again!!!😀

[neatokimmo]

NVAX created a MERS and SARS vaccine years ago. Their Covid vac is producing antibodies in testing. They have also upgraded the flu vaccine and got rid of the egg that messes so many people up.

 

They have already received a DOD order for the covid vac, delivery EOY. Another grant allowed them to purchase a billion dose production facility. Their most recent grant was 1.6 billion from the Feds to make sure everything was completed timely. 
 

I suggest y’all follow them, not only for the vaccine updates, but for the crazy gains the stock has made this year. $4 to $140. It’s millionaire making stock. 

[Trueblueky]

For me, the only question is: what day will Florida cruise ports reopen?

Answer: idk, but 10,000 new cases every day in Florida makes that day seem far off.

[jerseyjjs]

1 hour ago, neatokimmo said:

NVAX created a MERS and SARS vaccine years ago. Their Covid vac is producing antibodies in testing. They have also upgraded the flu vaccine and got rid of the egg that messes so many people up.

 

They have already received a DOD order for the covid vac, delivery EOY. Another grant allowed them to purchase a billion dose production facility. Their most recent grant was 1.6 billion from the Feds to make sure everything was completed timely. 
 

I suggest y’all follow them, not only for the vaccine updates, but for the crazy gains the stock has made this year. $4 to $140. It’s millionaire making stock. 

 

 

Pretty interesting at what happened to NVAX stock back in September of 2016.

[Cruising_Addict]

On 7/18/2020 at 7:43 AM, PhillyFan33579 said:

Not to put a damper on things, but there is no guarantee an effective vaccine will be available any time soon. The fastest vaccine ever developed was for mumps and that took 4 years. Additionally, an effective vaccine has yet to be developed for other coronaviruses including SARS and MERS. Promising early results does not mean an effective vaccine is imminent. 

The US has more than one vaccine that is already in its final human trial stage. Which means that one will be available far sooner than four years. And you can not compare this situation with SARS or MERS. There isn’t the same need for a vaccine for those viruses given that we have been able to contain them effectively with tracing and quarantines. 

[Diggerof4]

1 hour ago, Cruising_Addict said:

The US has more than one vaccine that is already in its final human trial stage. Which means that one will be available far sooner than four years. And you can not compare this situation with SARS or MERS. There isn’t the same need for a vaccine for those viruses given that we have been able to contain them effectively with tracing and quarantines. 

I was just recently tested. Not because of symptoms, due to I had to have emergency surgery.  I looked at my labs the hospital performed and they called they called the test SARS Coronavirus 2, PCR Rapid.  Just thought I would throw that out there. 

[neatokimmo]

21 hours ago, jerseyjjs said:

 

 

Pretty interesting at what happened to NVAX stock back in September of 2016.

Every stock goes up and down, that’s the game.

[spiritkat090909]

On 7/18/2020 at 7:41 AM, Eli_6 said:

 

...... some of the vaccines now being worked on are employing new technology that alters the way the virus attaches and doesn't even work in the same way as other vaccines do.

....

Not trying to argue.  ...

 

A.  I'm not trying to argue either

 

B.  That new technology is what concerns me. It sounds as if your DH is in a position to confirm/deny something that I would like to know:  Does that tech include the alteration of our DNA?

[Eli_6]

32 minutes ago, spiritkat090909 said:

 

A.  I'm not trying to argue either

 

B.  That new technology is what concerns me. It sounds as if your DH is in a position to confirm/deny something that I would like to know:  Does that tech include the alteration of our DNA?

 

 

They are using proteins off the virus. It will not modify your DNA by the vaccine.  

 

Gene therapy (for example, to treat Cancer) is still in its infancy but that's not related to a vaccine.  

 

FOX is reporting right now on the Oxford vaccine.

 

[Eli_6]

I am going to try to post what was just on FOX.  I recorded it in 20-30 second videos so I would be able to upload it. Otherwise, it is too big to upload. But this will result in multiple post.  It is discussing the Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccine.  

 

My husband has been saying one of the problems with getting the vaccine to the public will be production, but this gentleman on FOX is saying that AZ is already manufacturing the vaccine even though it may not prove effective.  This has never been done before and AZ will lose that money *IF* the vaccine does not prove effective in the ongoing trials.  The reason they are doing this is so that as soon as the vaccine is approved, they won't have to wait on production but can immediately get it out to hard hit areas.  Normally, the production amping up is what causes one of the big delays.  

 

The doctor on Fox said the trials of 30k people on the AZ/Oxford vaccine will be done by late fall which is earlier than I thought.  That study is already underway.  The Moderna vaccine study is an entirely separate study and the one they are starting in late July and my understanding is that it will take about a year.  

 

Normally, I am not a big Fox fan, but I don't think this is misinformation.  

[Eli_6]

23 hours ago, fyree39 said:

@Eli_6 I hope you continue to post these articles. I am always looking at the source of information first, before I start reading. Your sources are far and away some of the best I've seen.

 

I wonder if your husband has any opinion on the peer review process of these papers. Early on, I kept hearing about studies that had no time for peer review.

 

I asked him about this yesterday. He said anything published in NEJM, The Lancet, or similar would still be subjected to the peer-review process.  

[Honolulu Blue]

6 minutes ago, Eli_6 said:

I am going to try to post what was just on FOX.  I recorded it in 20-30 second videos so I would be able to upload it. Otherwise, it is too big to upload. But this will result in multiple post.  It is discussing the Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccine.  

 

My husband has been saying one of the problems with getting the vaccine to the public will be production, but this gentleman on FOX is saying that AZ is already manufacturing the vaccine even though it may not prove effective.  This has never been done before and AZ will lose that money *IF* the vaccine does not prove effective in the ongoing trials.  The reason they are doing this is so that as soon as the vaccine is approved, they won't have to wait on production but can immediately get it out to hard hit areas.  Normally, the production amping up is what causes one of the big delays.  

 

The doctor on Fox said the trials of 30k people on the AZ/Oxford vaccine will be done by late fall which is earlier than I thought.  That study is already underway.  The Moderna vaccine study is an entirely separate study and the one they are starting in late July and my understanding is that it will take about a year.  

 

Normally, I am not a big Fox fan, but I don't think this is misinformation.  

 

Thank you kindly for sharing this and your other posts in this thread.

 

I've heard whispers that promising potential vaccines would be manufactured before all trials were completed.  It's something only the federal government can fund, and one thing I'm hoping they will do.

 

I'm not an expert and don't pretend to be one, but I'm less worried about the manufacturing and more worried about the distribution.  How do you get the vaccine to those that need it most?  Who determines need?  Is it based on who has the biggest wallets?  Cruisers?  Risk factors?  Location?

[Eli_6]

I  having trouble uploading my video but this is similar to what the news report said except that the doctor they interviewed didn't say it would be ready by September.  It was said the trials *may* be done as early as late fall and that vaccines are already being produced so they are ready if the vaccine proves effective. 

 

 

https://www-foxnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.foxnews.com/science/early-results-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-expected-oxford-university-astrazeneca-reports.amp?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASDYAQE%3D#aoh=15952552460311&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fscience%2Fearly-results-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-expected-oxford-university-astrazeneca-reports

[spiritkat090909]

31 minutes ago, Eli_6 said:

 

 

They are using proteins off the virus. It will not modify your DNA by the vaccine.  

 

Gene therapy (for example, to treat Cancer) is still in its infancy but that's not related to a vaccine.  

 

FOX is reporting right now on the Oxford vaccine.

 

Had to 'Gidget Google'...

 

"...DNA-binding proteins include transcription factors which modulate the process of transcription, various polymerases, nucleases which cleave DNA molecules, and histones which are involved in chromosome packaging and transcription in the cell nucleus."...

 

So, it's the binding proteins being used to attack the virus.  I think I read/heard somewhere that it's the histones that are not acting in a normal fashion to normal coronaviruses.

 

While it is certainly above my pay grade, a basic understanding is something I think is essential to a somewhat educated decision-making process. I like to know what is (or isn't) going into my body. How things work. Food for further thought.

[Eli_6]

10 minutes ago, Honolulu Blue said:

 

Thank you kindly for sharing this and your other posts in this thread.

 

I've heard whispers that promising potential vaccines would be manufactured before all trials were completed.  It's something only the federal government can fund, and one thing I'm hoping they will do.

 

I'm not an expert and don't pretend to be one, but I'm less worried about the manufacturing and more worried about the distribution.  How do you get the vaccine to those that need it most?  Who determines need?  Is it based on who has the biggest wallets?  Cruisers?  Risk factors?  Location?

Well the WHO says the priority should be

-health care workers

-over 65

-adults with comorbitities

 

This can be found in a document titled "A Global Framework to Ensure Equitable and Fair Allocation of Covid-19 products and Potential Implications for Covid-19 Vaccines" which was published on June 18, 2020. It is a large PDF, but you can find it on Google and download it. 

 

But I honestly don't know how much the WHO would or could control what Astra Zeneca or Moderna does...

 

I think I read that the UK government is financing the production of 100 million of the Astra Zeneca/Oxford vaccines so that they would immediately be available. Only about 67 million people live in the UK so this is more than they would even need for their citizens. 

 

Here is a news article discussing this topic. Again, I hate citing to Fox News, but I am just posting it because it talks about what you are referring to:

 

https://www-foxnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.foxnews.com/science/coronavirus-vaccine-prioritization.amp?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASDYAQE%3D#aoh=15952555562387&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fscience%2Fcoronavirus-vaccine-prioritization

[Eli_6]

13 minutes ago, spiritkat090909 said:

Had to 'Gidget Google'...

 

"...DNA-binding proteins include transcription factors which modulate the process of transcription, various polymerases, nucleases which cleave DNA molecules, and histones which are involved in chromosome packaging and transcription in the cell nucleus."...

 

So, it's the binding proteins being used to attack the virus.  I think I read/heard somewhere that it's the histones that are not acting in a normal fashion to normal coronaviruses.

 

While it is certainly above my pay grade, a basic understanding is something I think is essential to a somewhat educated decision-making process. I like to know what is (or isn't) going into my body. How things work. Food for further thought.

To be honest, I was just responding to that particular question with what I know. My husband is seeing patients right now so I can't ask him.  My understanding of this is very minimal compared to his.  What I meant in response to the poster is that your DNA (for example on a DNA test) is not going to show up differently on a DNA test because you got a vaccine. 

 

I think they actually do modify the DNA of individual cells in some of the latest Cancer gene and immune therapies to attack the Cancer cells or allow your body to better find and target the Cancer cells, but I still don't think it is going to change a person's DNA on a DNA test. 

 

I have read up before on the ability to alter DNA of a very early stage embryo to prevent something like Fragile X Syndrome by correcting the FMR1 mutation and I don't think scientists can even do THAT yet. 

 

This is a bit of a description about how immune therapy works in Cancer treatment. Again, though, that's not related to vaccines.

[Eli_6]

The FDA Commissioner is on FOX now discussing the vaccine and the safety/efficacy.

 

FOX had the headline below him that a vaccine may be ready by fall but neither the FDA Commissioner not the doctor discussing the AZ vaccine actually said that.  I recorded it but when I listened back, all you can hear are my kids and my parrot screaming in the background.

[chipmaster]

On 7/18/2020 at 5:41 AM, Eli_6 said:

My husband is a physician who has been in faculty at two major med schools in the largest western hemisphere.  He was also a medical director at a different hospital and now owns his own clinic. While he is not personally working on a vaccine as that is not his specialty he has a patient who is and is flying all over the world consulting with experts from various universities and labs.  Over 150 vaccines are somewhere in the testing process.  China already has a vaccine that has (allegedly) proven effective in large scale testing and gotten approval proving to be mass produced. While even I would be wary of a Chinese vaccine (and, really, who knows how long until it would be available in the US), I do have faith in the progress being made at companies and Universities in the UK, in the US, in India, etc.

 

Prior to becoming a Dr, DH was a chemical engineer (in the 90s) who developed a way to transport highly volatile, high temp chemicals  through lines that made chemical plants much safer.  Unfortunately, he worked for a firm so they owned his intellectual property. So he has actually, albeit in a different field, been through the process of "developing" a concept or idea into an actual usable product.

 

I provide this background not to brag in anyway, but to show that I am not Gidget Google.  My husband has more knowledge both about virology and the process of trying to nd the approval process than the average Joe.  He believes we will have a vaccine in the next 6-9 months.  There are simply so many resources being thrown at it.  He thinks the bigger issue will be how long it might take to get it available to the masses. 

 

Another thing to note (because I have heard people remark on the fact that we aren't even sure if one can develop immunity to the virus) is that some of the vaccines now being worked on are employing new technology that alters the way the virus attaches and doesn't even work in the same way as other vaccines do.

 

One of my husband's colleagues at UT Health Science Center in Houston (in conjunction with a physician from a Japanese university) won the Nobel Prize in medicine two years ago for developing a treatment to alter human cells to fight Cancer in patients that were previously considered terminal:

 

https://www-houstonchronicle-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/Houston-scientist-Jim-Allison-wins-Nobel-13273632.php?usqp=mq331AQTKAGYAf7-r-OFs7ukHbABINgBAQ%3D%3D&amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.houstonchronicle.com%2Fnews%2Fhouston-texas%2Fhouston%2Farticle%2FHouston-scientist-Jim-Allison-wins-Nobel-13273632.php

 

Yes, I know that's different, but my point is that scientists are not just looking at the typical way of providing resistance but in entirely new ways much like the doctors above discovered a new way to treat cancers that were previously hopeless.  

 

We are light years ahead of where we were when the vaccine for Mumps was developed. Researchers KNOW what is safe and what isn't to put in a vaccine.  The research on MERS and SARS actually gave us a leg up on this vaccine I terms of what works.

 

Just look how much less deadly Covid is already than it was four months ago.  Why? Because already doctors and scientists are discovering best practices for treatment.  While the death numbers in Texas are under reported (lag in processing death certificates at state offices that are partially shut down), we still are having relatively few deaths in comparison to the HUGE numbers of positives we are getting because some people still refuse to socially distance and mask wear.  It's not because the virus has become less deadly. It is because we are getting better at treating it. 

 

Not trying to argue.  Nothing is ever definite.  And I am certainly not an expert.   But I can tell you my husband (who has way more knowledge than I do) has no qualms about me planning two B2B European cruises for next summer or buying four round trip business class plane tickets to Europe and back. He thinks there will be a vaccine by then.  He did, however, poo-poo a fall or winter cruise (because I booked one without telling him but it was only a $99 deposit) and is looking into hiring a private teacher for our children to teach them in our home for the fall semester even though their private school has only 10-12 kids in a classroom. So, he does take it very seriously. He just thinks the long-term outlook is positive.

 

A very well thought and prospective, technology moves fast, but as smart as we are one thing almost has always happened, we over predict what we can do over the short haul time horizon and we almost always under predict what is possible on the long term horizon.  

 

Think back on any technology or breakthru, very very rarely do we do it and amaze ourselves how we did better and it came out just as we predicted, more often when you look back you are amazed at what you have and why, but it is usually much further out in the future.   

[Eli_6]

I was finally able to actually upload one the videos I took on my phone.  It just takes forever to upload.  

 

The 1,000 person Oxford AZ study is being published in The Lancet today.  I am anxious to read it.  Here is the Fox doctor talking about the second of two ways that this particular vaccine attacks the virus.  Again, this is (I think) just with respect to that Oxford/AZ vaccine. 

 

And, again, I am not saying this vaccine WILL work or be safe.  The thing to remember, though, is this isn't the only vaccine being researched out there.  I assume it is getting the most attention  because it is probably the most promising at the moment, but other companies are working on their own.  Maybe I am being overly optimistic, but I personally think we will have some sort of mechanism by next summer (either vaccine or treatment that makes it less dangerous or know enough about preventing the virus)  to allow us to safely cruise.  I wouldn't be booking airline tickets or excursion tickets if I or my husband thought otherwise. I just hope carnival can stay afloat financially that long.  Now that issue is one I don't know much about.