Cruise Critic Article - Goodbye Low Occupancy As Cruise Ships Drop Capacity Restrictions

[someguyfl]

2 hours ago, mikewomb said:

Your points are good, but I believe the remaining ships upgrades were not done due to covid and the shutdown..also lack of income. 

Yes, they were halted because of lack of income due to covid. They haven't resumed due to lack of income due to continuing economic impacts from covid. Many months of total shutdown, many more months of very reduced capacity. Just now they are starting to resume more normal capacity.

[mikewomb]

22 minutes ago, someguyfl said:

Yes, they were halted because of lack of income due to covid. They haven't resumed due to lack of income due to continuing economic impacts from covid. Many months of total shutdown, many more months of very reduced capacity. Just now they are starting to resume more normal capacity.

As I said before all that money they didn’t pay in taxes because all ships are registered out of the US ….guess I have no sympathy for them.  Maybe had they paid their fair share they would have received Federal Covid funding relief.   It is like the airlines, I am sure you know that all FEES they collect are not taxed. No doubt you knew that.  I.e. baggage fees

Edited May 14, 2022 by mikewomb

[someguyfl]

1 hour ago, mikewomb said:

As I said before all that money they didn’t pay in taxes because all ships are registered out of the US ….guess I have no sympathy for them.  Maybe had they paid their fair share they would have received Federal Covid funding relief.   It is like the airlines, I am sure you know that all FEES they collect are not taxed. No doubt you knew that.  I.e. baggage fees

I'm not saying anyone has to have any sympathy for them. But, it is a business, and it is doing what it has to do to survive. If you like the product, buy it. If you don't like it, don't buy it.

 

There's plenty to dislike about the cruise industry ... and, for some, plenty to like about it too.

The cruise industry has to consider what the majority of the potential pool of customers want, and provide that service. There is obviously no incentive in operating ships at 50% capacity. Who would build a ship to operate it at half capacity?
 

Almost certainly, the percentage of the population that is interested in going on cruises, but ONLY if the cruises have a lot of restrictions (eg: mask mandates, excursion rules, etc), ONLY if the cruise ship is kept at 50% capacity or lower, AND is willing to pay 2X as much for that experience ... must be vanishingly small. 

 

Some people will be annoyed by lifting of restrictions and going back to previous capacity, some of those people will not go on a cruise as a result. Many others won't go on a cruise that requires masks. Almost nobody is willing to pay 2X as much to operate the ship half empty.

 

All else equal, I'd prefer the ship be half empty and charge me the same price, but, I also would much prefer my ship be sailing full and recently renovated, rather than being a decade old and needing renovation, but half empty.

It's also only a matter of time before word starts to get out about how ships are dated and people refuse to go on ships until they are updated... And that will require money.

Edited to add: Go over to Yahoo finance and look at the financial statements for NCLH, RCL, and CCL.

 

For their most recent quarter, and the last several, RCL is losing A BILLION DOLLARS PER QUARTER. They have twice the debt they had pre-covid.

Carnival is trading at almost the same price as they were in March 2020.

Please explain how this can go on for much longer without them actually filling ships with passengers?

Edited May 14, 2022 by someguyfl

[mikewomb]

I don’t know how to answer your question. We are avid cruisers and with Celebrity many times. Our first cruise with them was on the Zenith…I don’t dislike them , but when you can build a billion $$$ ship and bleed money, it is either poor planning or bad business. After 55 cruises, I am afraid our cruising days are over.  Perhaps the loss in stock prices is because they  have lost their target audience, what ever that was.  I think the billion $$ ships are not helping their financials. IMHO perhaps they should have played it closer to the vest …just like going out and buying a new Mercedes when you have two perfectly good ones in the garage. 
 

….the experience is not what we booked or are willing to assume a risk that seems to be increasing. Best wishes to you. 
 

 

Edited May 14, 2022 by mikewomb

[Minniebug]

I think mass tourism like cruising might end sooner or later. Personally, I am already staying away from crowds as much as possible. At the grocery store, even on my morning walk. Individual, personalized travel without crowds is the future.

[Cruising89143]

I agree with some. The cruise industry is a business. They need to fill ships to stay afloat. I hold no negative feelings about this. It’s up to each and every one of us to decide if we want to board a ship. If it’s not right for you then don’t cruise at this time. Also, if you’re fully vaccinated and boosted then that should take some of the high risk away. Covid is not going anywhere. We all just need to try and stay as safe as possible and learn to live with it. Whatever health and safety protocols are put into place by the cruise line, we will gladly follow. 
 

We were supposed to be leaving a week from today for Italy along with a cruise on the Edge. We planned this trip for almost a year. After looking at all things possible, we made the tough decision to cancel the trip due to not wanting to have the possibility of being quarantined that far away from home. That was a hard and sad choice but in the end we felt that it was the correct decision for us. Celebrity was very good to us. We’re now booked on the Solstice out of San Pedro in December. It’s not Italy but it will be a great cruise and we made it work for our situation. 🙂🙂
 

Like many others we have missed cruising over the last few years so we have decided to do the shorter cruises out of San Pedro on RCI’s Navigator OTS. We can cruise on B2B cruises (7 nights) and drive a short distance to the port. If we get sick then its a 90 minute to two hour drive home to rest and get well. No flying involved. I realize not everyone has that option but we’re trying to make the best of what’s currently happening while still getting some time on a cruise ship. We will be back on the NV in less than three weeks for another cruise. Happy cruising to all.

[Minniebug]

do what you gotta do. We went to see family in Germany and Holland last December and felt much safer as vaccination rates were much higher in Europe. Every restaurant we went to we had to show proof of vaccination and we felt much better. People were much more cooperative than in the US, where everything is politicized. Actually I think moving back to Europe for good. More educated people, less qrazies.

[RichYak]

4 hours ago, mikewomb said:

but when you can build a billion $$$ ship and bleed money, it is either poor planning or bad business

Or maybe it was just an unforeseen global pandemic?

[crusinthrough]

Cruises will only sail as full as the number of people who are willing to book.  Summer months and holiday cruises will probably have higher capacity but off season will be more than likely remain less than capacity.  There were some sailings that had less than 1k passenger.  Was this capacity controlled or people not booking?   I don't recall seeing any ships with gaps in sailing dates because they were taken out of inventory for meeting an undisclosed capacity limit.  

 

 

[Happy Cruiser 6143]

I'm just off a B2B on the Summit.  Around 350 pax on the first leg (on a private yacht, as the captain termed it).  Second leg had around 1600 pax.  Big difference.  They didn't have enough staff to deal with the increase and service in the MDR was dreadful, definitely not up to Celebrity standards.  Elsewhere on the ship things were fine.  Service in Luminae and Bacio was awesome and Retreat was fully booked.  We heard nothing about covid although several staff members volunteered that all the staff had tested negative several times and that they were beginning to be allowed to go ashore.

[someguyfl]

3 hours ago, RichYak said:

Or maybe it was just an unforeseen global pandemic?

Yeah, seriously!

It's hard for me to understand how people can be so clueless of what it's like to run a business. Pre-pandemic, the economy rewarded companies that took on debt to grow faster. The cruise industry was no different.

 

Once the pandemic hit, all the cruise companies had large ongoing debt payments and ZERO revenue. Hence, even more debt today as they were forced to take on more debt to pay just the interest on the previous debt.

 

The cruise lines didn't get any bailouts as a result of their tax choices of the past -- which is fair -- but the result is what it is, and the industry has to do what it has to.

As far as getting new ships:
1) Celebrity had contracts signed from pre-pandemic for edge-class ships. If they did not accept delivery, they would have almost certainly been sued (and lost).

2) I'm sure it's much easier for Celebrity to sell tickets on a brand new class of ships like Edge than it is to sell tickets on Solstice which was built in 2008 and has not been rennovated.

 

Honestly, I'm not sure if the industry will even survive without more bankruptcies.

 

I'll be going on the May 20 sailing of Solstice from Seattle to Alaska. My first cruise in like 6 years (interestingly, my last cruse was also Solstice on the same route in late may). I suspect that the rooms are going to be showing their age, given that these ships were schedule for dry-dock [and cancelled] ... and some passengers are going to be unhappy about it.

 

If that's the case, it's only a matter of time before bad reviews start circulating, and it's going to be yet another headwind on selling tickets.

 

For people who are fans of cruising, now's going to be a time to be understanding of the cruise lines trying as much as possible to restore occupancy to previous levels as they are at a critical juncture fighting for survival.

Edited May 15, 2022 by someguyfl