July-August Disturbance Discussions

[PelicanBill]

July 5, all is quiet.  Sorry I missed Bonnie and Colin here, I was away for the weekend and too busy.

Generally, when a disturbance in the Atlantic gets a name I make a new thread for it. Same for any in the Pacific that is a significant threat.

 

 

[PelicanBill]

Atlantic underachiever "Bonnie" who remained a depression for days and days has somehow crossed Central America into the pacific grown to a category 3 major hurricane.  Go figure.

 

[PelicanBill]

30% chance of this weakened front dropping down and forming a cyclone.

 

[PelicanBill]

That trough has degraded to 0% chance.  Nothing else of interest.

[Georgia_Peaches]

I'm so glad I found your post!  What has your experience been with tropical weather in the Caribbean during later August into early September.  On average, is this time frame hit and miss or more hits than misses?  We are looking at a 7 night out of Miami on 8/27-9/3.  Heading to Cozumel, Grand Cayman, and Jamaica.  Appreciate any insights.

[PelicanBill]

On 7/13/2022 at 9:07 AM, Georgia_Peaches said:

I'm so glad I found your post!  What has your experience been with tropical weather in the Caribbean during later August into early September.  On average, is this time frame hit and miss or more hits than misses?  We are looking at a 7 night out of Miami on 8/27-9/3.  Heading to Cozumel, Grand Cayman, and Jamaica.  Appreciate any insights.

Well, the height of the tropical cyclone season is September 10. So you are technically in the thick of it. But really, on average?  There *may* be one storm threatening *one* area.  Could be the very long gulf shores, or anywhere around Florida, or the upper Caribbean or Lower Caribbean, or Mexico coast.

 

Get travel insurance, and pay attention in the week prior, and be ready to change your plans. Be ready for a change in your cruise departure, return or ports.  By the way, storms BEFORE your cruise can alter your port plans.

 

I have a dozen cruises in the last decade, with 1 changed by active hurricanes to an entirely different destination. Two had ports changed. 

 

So it's a good chance to be affected, but rarely is a cruise entirely canceled.

 

[PelicanBill]

Shhhhhh. It's so quiet.  Surprising after the somewhat busy start to the season.

[PelicanBill]

<yawn.>

 

anyone else surprised?

 

[rkacruiser]

1 hour ago, PelicanBill said:

<yawn.>

 

anyone else surprised?

 

 

Yes.  I wonder if the extreme heat conditions that North America is experiencing throughout the United States is having an impact on the warming of the Caribbean.  Also, Europe has been sweltering:  an impact on the storms coming off of Africa and traveling across the Atlantic?  

[PelicanBill]

On 8/2/2022 at 4:05 PM, rkacruiser said:

 

Yes.  I wonder if the extreme heat conditions that North America is experiencing throughout the United States is having an impact on the warming of the Caribbean.  Also, Europe has been sweltering:  an impact on the storms coming off of Africa and traveling across the Atlantic?  

I have not seen anything link these but great question.

[PelicanBill]

But after that siesta here we go. 40% chance at this time and winds suggest a strong curve toward or above the Bahamas.

[rkacruiser]

3 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

I have not seen anything link these but great question.

 

I am thinking ahead as to what Winter could be like.  Nature seems to be able to attempt to balance weather situations.  At least, that's what I think.  A hot/humid Summer in the Northern Hemisphere will lead to what during the Winter?  We will find out!  

[rkacruiser]

4 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

But after that siesta here we go. 40% chance at this time and winds suggest a strong curve toward or above the Bahamas.

 

What's an appropriate meteorological  response?  It's about time?  

[PelicanBill]

hahaha. Even meteorologists on TV seem bored by the tropical weather.

Today we have this yawner. 10% chance.

 

[PelicanBill]

Continue to yawn.  We do now have this one, with 20% chance to form. I am not getting excited with all that land, and path uncertainty for more land along the Mexico coast.

[rkacruiser]

An article in my newspaper today concerned the gradual extreme heating that has been predicted during the next 30 years for parts of the United States, particularly the mid-section of our country.  (Unfortunately, where I live is included in this area.)  Is this heating going to deprive the tropics of the heat that is needed to cause tropical storms and worse?  My thinking that the unusual heat that the Northern Hemisphere has had this Summer is a possible reason for the tropics to be so inactive.  

[PelicanBill]

So we have TD 4, may make it to tropical storm, going over the TX/MX border and bringing outflow rains to a large region up to Houston and beyond.

[PelicanBill]

we've got a disturbance with a 20% chance to form a storm coming across the ITCZ.

 

[PelicanBill]

the Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is heating up.

But with a week left, will we get a named storm in August?  There has only been one year we did not have a named storm in August... 1995.  These are pretty weak.  From left to right, the chance to develop over 5 days: 20%, 0%, 20%. Conditions are looking more friendly to development in 5 days for that first disturbance, once it reaches the windward islands and the Caribbean.

[PelicanBill]

The middle X above is gone, and the two with arrows are still at 20% each.

[PelicanBill]

Still two waves at 20% each. The first will enter the Caribbean by tomorrow. The second is just starting over from Africa.

[PelicanBill]

Two minor disturbances are not expected to develop, but one at 80% chance now heading toward the Northeast islands and then the Bahamas - but a bit north of both.

 

[PelicanBill]

The red area is still 80%… likely to curve north and only Bermuda may be at risk.the other is 40%.

[PelicanBill]

Last day for this thread, then we move on to Sep-Oct.

Look at this: 3 medium chance systems.  Chance in 48 hours are 60%, 60% and 40% for the new one near Africa. That one in the North Atlantic popped up fast!

 

The view over 5 days: 80%, 70%, 50%. The one at 80% that we've been watching for some time is expected to recurve, so now we are watching potential strength and impact to Bermuda.