NCL first cruise line to remove ALL Vaccine Requirements!!

[BermudaBound2014]

13 minutes ago, MotownVoice said:

  And the vaccinated don’t die from it.   

 

You sure? This is what I think, but I'm not sure.....

 

Lots of new data emerging (especially in the international community) that is challenging earlier beliefs on this subject. I'd link the studies but my posts have been flagged for not following CC policies on covid discussion. I just recommend an open mind regarding the possibility that things w/covid may turn out differently than first reported. 

 

But I do agree with you 100% in that MOST people don't care whether others are vaccinated or not. By this stage in the virus evolution; if you choose to remain unvaccinated, you know the risks. If you have a comorbidity, you know the risk. If you choose to hang out in areas with higher levels of population density (ex: a cruise ship), you know the risk. 

 

Personal responsibility.  

[habitatnal]

6 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I suspect the Bahamas will change their requirements. Covid policies remain extremely fluid and the one thing we've learned is that they are in a continuous state of change.

 

CCL initially said Bahamas wouldn't allow unvaccinated and then backtracked a few days later (looking rather foolish). Did I mention that covid policies are still fluid? lol

 

RCL also said they will have more announcements on unvaccinated released on 8/14. That may help clear up some of the confusion. 

 

If I were you, I'd wait a few weeks to book. Lots of this uncertainty with particular ports will shake out. If the trip you are planning is far into the future, I'd just book (w/refundable deposit). The odds of any covid protocols remaining into 2023 seem very low to me.

 

 

 

 

I think that the unvaccinated may have to test until spring of next year.  NCL is requiring testing for unvaccinated people over 12 regardless of destination.  There are cruises that just go to Mexico and I would be shocked if Mexico required unvaccinated cruisers have a negative test.  They have not required testing or vaccination for anyone throughout the entire pandemic.  It seems like NCL sees value in requiring unvaccinated people over 12 have a negative test or why would they require it when not every destination does?

Edited August 11, 2022 by habitatnal

[J_Bronco34]

Still doesn't matter to those of us who want to do Alaska cruises because of Canada's restrictions. So, Vancouver to Seward/Whittier and vice versa is out as are the RT Seattle cruises because of the port call in Victoria. 

 

What is Canada's deal anyhow? 🤨🤨

Edited August 12, 2022 by J_Bronco34

[lyannea]

29 minutes ago, J_Bronco34 said:

Still doesn't matter to those of us who want to do Alaska cruises because of Canada's restrictions. So, Vancouver to Seward/Whittier and vice versa is out as are the RT Seattle cruises because of the port call in Victoria. 

 

What is Canada's deal anyhow? 🤨🤨

Could the unvaxed stay on board when in Victoria ? Hopefully, the cruise lines & Canada will allow the unvaxed to stay onboard the ship.

Canada and 22 other countries around the world have restrictions regarding vaccinated only &/or 14 day quarantine when you get there.m, if unvaxed.

[habitatnal]

34 minutes ago, lyannea said:

Could the unvaxed stay on board when in Victoria ? Hopefully, the cruise lines & Canada will allow the unvaxed to stay onboard the ship.

Canada and 22 other countries around the world have restrictions regarding vaccinated only &/or 14 day quarantine when you get there.m, if unvaxed.

If you are over 12 and unvaccinated you can’t cruise to Canada and Canada will not just let you stay on the ship.  Canada has taken a conservative approach throughout the pandemic and I don’t see anything changing this year.

[ontheweb]

7 hours ago, lyannea said:

Could the unvaxed stay on board when in Victoria ? Hopefully, the cruise lines & Canada will allow the unvaxed to stay onboard the ship.

Canada and 22 other countries around the world have restrictions regarding vaccinated only &/or 14 day quarantine when you get there.m, if unvaxed.

Just allowing the passengers who cannot go to a port (whether visa issues or vaccination issues) is just not the way it works.

[jakebloke]

On 8/10/2022 at 11:13 PM, philv said:

I'm on the Pride Of America September 24. Does anyone know if Hawaii is on board with no test if vaccinated? They were a little sticky during pandemic.

I"m on the POA in October and was wondering the same thing.  I can see Hawaii saying "Hold On!! Not so fast!!"  I hope not though.  

[Oxo]

Sail Safe Travel Requirements.pdf

[Catnip]

On 8/8/2022 at 11:23 PM, Ravensfan1973 said:

I usually sail RCI, but may switch over to Norweigian if they got rid of the vax mandate.  My family is unvaxxed and ready to cruise.

Ditto for my family!  I haven't sailed on NCL since the mid 80s, but we are going to book a cruise (or 2) on NCL next week for being the frist to come to their senses and do away with the "vaxx" mandate!  We usually sail on RCCL/Celebrity also, but now NCL is getting out business!

[toyotamom]

Our group booked 11 Haven rooms for Alaska next July since they removed the vax mandate.  Ready to get to cruising again.  Realize there may be some issues with Canada but will see what it looks like before last date to cancel with 100% refund.

[BermudaBound2014]

On 8/8/2022 at 11:45 AM, UKstages said:

...... requiring vaccinations didn't eat into the pool of potential cruising customers because those most likely to cruise are already vaccinated. 

 

similarly, there is not a large number of "unvaccinated cruisers who have been itching to cruise." 

 

This theory didn't age well either.  All three cruise lines have seen a significant increase in bookings due to removal of vaccine mandates. 

 

Oceana saw an 80% booking increase with the removal of the vaccine mandate. NCLH had 70%.

 

 

Bookings doubled on Monday for CCL due to pent up demand released by eased protocols:

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/carnivalcovid-bookings-doubled-51660675851?siteid=yhoof2

 

I am well aware that cruise lines are spinning these numbers. There is a record number of bookings partly because there is a record amount of inventory available. I acknowledge that. However; your theory that vaccine requirements didn't effect the number of potential cruisers has officially been debunked. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[cruiseny4life]

10 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

This theory didn't age well either.  All three cruise lines have seen a significant increase in bookings due to removal of vaccine mandates. 

 

Oceana saw an 80% booking increase with the removal of the vaccine mandate. NCLH had 70%.

 

 

Bookings doubled on Monday for CCL due to pent up demand released by eased protocols:

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/carnivalcovid-bookings-doubled-51660675851?siteid=yhoof2

 

I am well aware that cruise lines are spinning these numbers. There is a record number of bookings partly because there is a record amount of inventory available. I acknowledge that. However; your theory that vaccine requirements didn't effect the number of potential cruisers has officially been debunked. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Give it another two quarterly reports before you sneer at the keyboard warriors you joust with. That's when you can see if you, or UK, or graphic, or the others you constantly debate with are correct. Maybe you are and we all will bow down to the majesty...maybe you're not and we'll just continue on with our day. But seriously...a week or two of data means little. Let's see if that pent up unvaccinated demand can continue before declaring victory on the internet.

[BermudaBound2014]

@cruiseny4life

 

I never suggested that the pent up demand would last two quarters 😉 

 

In fact, I suggest it won't.

 

I have continuously suggested that it is Johnny Public's perception of cruising in a petri dish that will prohibit occupancy from reaching pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. IMO, this is the greatest challenge for the industry.

Edited August 17, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[cruiseny4life]

14 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

@cruiseny4life

 

I never suggested that the pent up demand would last two quarters 😉 

 

In fact, I suggest it won't.

 

I have continuously suggested that it is Johnny Public's perception of cruising in a petri dish that will prohibit occupancy from reaching pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. IMO, this is the greatest challenge for the industry.

I'm just challenging the notion that vaccine requirement impacted a great number of cruisers. The pent up demand could have been over in three days, therefore is it really a lot of cruisers that were impacted by the requirements?

 

My point is - will we see these record, or even increased, booking days for a week? a month? a quarter? We won't know for at least a quarter or two if there was really a lot of demand by those who were waiting for vaccine mandates to be dropped. 

 

I suppose you can see we've seen record bookings for a week. Will it continue? That lagging indicator we won't know for a bit. That's why I can't support your premise that UK's theory isn't accurate yet (I can't discount it either though). 

[BermudaBound2014]

@cruiseny4life Totally legit. 

 

My personal guess is that we will never really know the long term effects reducing protocols have on future bookings. Unfortunately, the fall occupancy rates are dismal. The reduced protocols could increase occupancy significantly, yet still leave fall occupancy less than 50% overall. 

 

 

 

 

[UKstages]

much has been said in this thread about the age of cruise ship passengers and how that might affect their propensity to be vaccinated. In addition, much has been said about how many have always been resistant to cruising for a variety of reasons, which may or may not include vaccination requirements. 

 

here is some data:

 

the most common age for cruise ship passengers is between 60 and 69 years; 19% of cruisers fall under this demographic. an additional 15% are 70 years or older. and 18% are 50 – 59 years old. those in their 40s typically make up 15% of a ship’s passengers, on average. and these numbers have remained relatively stable over the past few years, with a modest 1% uptick in travelers over 70. 

 

longer cruises and cruises to far off or exotic destinations tend to have older passengers. the notable exception is new england and canada, which, while not very far away for most americans, is dominated by older passengers.

 

the average age of NCL cruisers is 52.5 years, slightly higher than the average age for all lines. (lines such as carnival skew younger and bring down the overall average.) the number of children and the number of elderly affect the average age on any ship at any given time, of course. but it’s fair to say that more than half of all NCL cruisers are over 50 years of age.

 

fewer than 20% of americans have ever been on a cruise.

 

(source for data above: cruise lines international association (CLIA) global passenger report, 2020)

 

now let’s look at vaccination stats by age.

 

as noted upthread, there are geographic, socioeconomic and political influences that drive  the likelihood of being vaxxed. but all those factors point toward higher vax rates among cruise ship passengers. 

 

the CDC says that 82.2% of those 50 - 64 years old have been fully vaccinated, with lots of others having received at least one dose. 91.9% of those 65 and over are fully vaccinated, with lots of others in this age group having received at least one dose. the CDC doesn’t keep stats on previous cruise ship passengers who refused to be vaccinated at any age.

 

you are free to draw your own inferences from this data.

 

but it’s clear that a majority of NCL cruise ship passengers are older. 

 

and it’s also clear that this age group is more likely to be vaccinated.

 

some think the elimination of vax requirements will herald a significant increase in business for the cruise ship industry; others do not. some say it will herald a significant increase in business for the cruise ship industry simply because the cruise ship industry says it will. most people won’t be swayed by such nonsense. just as the plurality of people who have never cruised won’t be convinced to take a cruise merely because vaccines are no longer required. 

 

so we’re left with a small percentage of previous cruisers who the cruise lines somehow believe are culturally resistant to getting vaxxed, which is incredibly counterintuitive, since most of them are older and the most likely to already have been vaxxed. the “unvaxxed yet likely to cruise” population represents a very small slice of the pie, but they are certainly quite vocal on social media as are their supporters, many of whom they've never met.

 

as for those in their 40s (15% of a ship’s passengers) who have families, originally, they couldn’t cruise at all. with vaccines becoming available for children, that obstacle has been lifted. and we do know that the CDC says that 69.1% of those 18 - 49 years old have already been vaccinated.

[cruiseny4life]

3 minutes ago, UKstages said:

the most common age for cruise ship passengers is between 60 and 69 years; 19% of cruisers fall under this demographic. an additional 15% are 70 years or older. and 18% are 50 – 59 years old. those in their 40s typically make up 15% of a ship’s passengers, on average. and these numbers have remained relatively stable over the past few years, with a modest 1% uptick in travelers over 70. 

Yikes! I didn't realize how far in the minority I am! I'm a 30-something...and the husband's in his 20's. Sheesh we're like babes on the boat.

[PUNKT2]

2 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

@cruiseny4life Totally legit. 

 

Unfortunately, the fall occupancy rates are dismal. The reduced protocols could increase occupancy significantly, yet still leave fall occupancy less than 50% overall. 

 

 

 

 

NCL is the worst of the big three, yet even they have said they are expecting to be in the low-to-mid 80% range for fall, so how do you figure?

[BermudaBound2014]

7 minutes ago, PUNKT2 said:

NCL is the worst of the big three, yet even they have said they are expecting to be in the low-to-mid 80% range for fall, so how do you figure?

 

They said they hope to average at 80% which means some sailings will be higher than 80% and some will be lower than 80%. And hope spring eternal.

 

NCL also said they will not turn a profit in Q3 or Q4 this year. 

 

On a side note, while dismal is not quantifiable, I believe 80% is still dismal. Bayley said that cruises need to operate at 95% occupancy to yield positive cash flow. It was 90% pre-pandemic but the interest payments on cruise line debt has risen sharply so they need to sustain 95%. It's still a very rough road. 

Edited August 17, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[PUNKT2]

1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

They said they hope to average at 80% which means some sailings will be higher than 80% and some will be lower than 80%. And hope spring eternal.

 

NCL also said they will not turn a profit in Q3 or Q4 this year. 

 

On a side note, while dismal is not quantifiable, I believe 80% is still dismal. Bayley said that cruises need to operate at 95% occupancy to yield positive cash flow. It was 90% pre-pandemic but the interest payments on cruise line debt has risen sharply so they need to sustain 95%. It's still a very rough road. 

Yep - for sure mid-80% still is dismal and not profitable, not arguing with you there. But since NCL was in the mid-60% range last quarter, saying "The reduced protocols could increase occupancy significantly, yet still leave fall occupancy less than 50% overall" would seem to be a gross exaggeration. 

[BermudaBound2014]

8 minutes ago, PUNKT2 said:

Yep - for sure mid-80% still is dismal and not profitable, not arguing with you there. But since NCL was in the mid-60% range last quarter, saying "The reduced protocols could increase occupancy significantly, yet still leave fall occupancy less than 50% overall" would seem to be a gross exaggeration. 

 

Sure, I can agree. Maybe less than 50% is an exaggeration. It would not at all surprise me to see fall occupancy remain in the mid-60's though. I can't see NCL averaging 80% in the fall, even with the reduces protocols. 

Edited August 17, 2022 by BermudaBound2014