Fiona - Atlantic - Sep 15

[PelicanBill]

After a lull for many weeks, we have Fiona, named today.

Expecting 60mph winds, a strong tropical storm. It will pass through or near St Maarten and it’s nearby islands, then the BVI and USVI, then on to Puerto Rico, probably along the south coast, then start moving NW along the DR. After that perhaps impact to Turks and Caicos and Bahamas.  We’ll be watching.

[rkacruiser]

And poor Hati is in its path.  

[PelicanBill]

1 hour ago, rkacruiser said:

And poor Hati is in its path.  

If the path holds, Haiti is off the lower left quarter, usually the weakest of the storm. And it will likely be weakened by the brush with the Dominican Republic as well.  So I am hopeful Haiti will get weak tropical storm winds or less.

 

But it looks like the warm shallow waters of the Bahama Shelf will allow it to strengthen.  Models show an average of Category 1 hurricane as it comes into the Turks & Caicos and lower Bahamas. But a typical recurve looks to happen and it will veer away from the upper Bahamas.

 

Nevertheless, cruises in the waters of the NE Caribbean are likely to divert right now, and those in Ts&Cs and Bahamas will divert next week.

We are lucky it's close to the weekend when post ships are headed back to port.

[PelicanBill]

The GFS shows Fiona strengthening a LOT after curving away from the Bahamas, and going much too close to Bermuda. That is my biggest concern now.

[Emmabelle]

Okay so say I’m boarding the Disney Wish on Monday.  We’re supposed to stop in Nassau on Tuesday and Castaway Cay on Wednesday.  I don’t need to go to those places.  I’m most interested in chasing the good weather.  What are your predictions?

[jsglow]

I was not aware of this forum.  Thanks for the work on it @PelicanBill.

[skywalkr2]

Yes, I am also heading out tomorrow for 8 days out of Baltimore, so will be interesting.  Not many ports actually available out of Baltimore.  Not sure how Carnival will handle it.  We have Half Moon Kay on Tuesday, Grand Turk on Wednesday, and Amber Cover on Thursday.  Seems like something will have to chan

[PelicanBill]

OK replies to your questions coming.  First, an update:

As far as islands go, good news. Path forecast is further south, which lessens impacts to the BVI and USVI.  I will be studying closer maps today.  Same for Puerto Rico. Looks to stay well south and then hit the land of Hispaniola - that should take the wind out of it a bit (oh, a weather pun!)  and prevent it from being stronger as it reaches the Turks and Caicos and lower Bahamas. 

 

Models conflict after that. Some say recurve and out to sea between the coast and Bermuda, some suggest heading toward the South Carolina coast.  Too early to have much confidence in any path.

[PelicanBill]

15 hours ago, Emmabelle said:

Okay so say I’m boarding the Disney Wish on Monday.  We’re supposed to stop in Nassau on Tuesday and Castaway Cay on Wednesday.  I don’t need to go to those places.  I’m most interested in chasing the good weather.  What are your predictions?

At the moment, I think perhaps Nassau is a go, but Castaway Cay seems risky and you'd have to sail south/west.  Will watch this!

[PelicanBill]

2 hours ago, jsglow said:

I was not aware of this forum.  Thanks for the work on it @PelicanBill.

Thank you so much for the appreciation!

[PelicanBill]

1 hour ago, skywalkr2 said:

Yes, I am also heading out tomorrow for 8 days out of Baltimore, so will be interesting.  Not many ports actually available out of Baltimore.  Not sure how Carnival will handle it.  We have Half Moon Kay on Tuesday, Grand Turk on Wednesday, and Amber Cover on Thursday.  Seems like something will have to chan

Same for the short Disney Wish cruise. Not much choice for change.  But perhaps it could be scrambled if the ports can allow it. You might be able to go to Half Moon Tuesday, sail west then back behind to Amber Cove, then follow up to Grand Turk.  Crossing my fingers for you.

 

I believe you are on Legend?  I sail Legend out of Baltimore Oct. 30.  Would love to hear about it if you are!

[skywalkr2]

12 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Same for the short Disney Wish cruise. Not much choice for change.  But perhaps it could be scrambled if the ports can allow it. You might be able to go to Half Moon Tuesday, sail west then back behind to Amber Cove, then follow up to Grand Turk.  Crossing my fingers for you.

 

I believe you are on Legend?  I sail Legend out of Baltimore Oct. 30.  Would love to hear about it if you are!

Yes sir.  On Legend starting tomorrow. 

[Emmabelle]

20 minutes ago, skywalkr2 said:

Yes sir.  On Legend starting tomorrow. 

let’s us know if you can, if they change course.

 

I’d rather stay on the dock at PC then cruise around in the pouring rain. Haha

 

thanks @Pelican Bill!

[LucyLuu]

@Pelican Bill I also just found this forum and am very appreciative of the discussion.

We leave Sat out of Fort Lauderdale on Celebrity headed to Key West (Sun), Bimini (Mon)  and the Grand Turk (Wed) and finally DR (Thurs), back to FL (Sat). Any thoughts on how Fiona may effect us?  Thanks for your attention and comments!

[Emmabelle]

1 hour ago, LucyLuu said:

@Pelican Bill I also just found this forum and am very appreciative of the discussion.

We leave Sat out of Fort Lauderdale on Celebrity headed to Key West (Sun), Bimini (Mon)  and the Grand Turk (Wed) and finally DR (Thurs), back to FL (Sat). Any thoughts on how Fiona may effect us?  Thanks for your attention and comments!

 

yup just sitting in our hotel room in Orlando hoping they say it broke apart.  The Weather Channel guy thought it could possibly weaken.  Fingers crossed especially for the people who actually live there

[bafinegan]

Hubbs and I are on the Elation on Monday, Sept 19.  Supposed to go to Nassau and Princess Cay if Fiona will allow it 😏.

[PA Dutchman]

9 hours ago, skywalkr2 said:

Yes, I am also heading out tomorrow for 8 days out of Baltimore, so will be interesting.  Not many ports actually available out of Baltimore.  Not sure how Carnival will handle it.  We have Half Moon Kay on Tuesday, Grand Turk on Wednesday, and Amber Cover on Thursday.  Seems like something will have to chan

We are going along for the bumby ride to where ever. Don't think we will make any of the ports

 

[Seashell337]

We leave tomorrow out of Miami on Carnival Horizon. I’m just wondering if Fiona will interfere with our haul out to the ABC’s. Seems like anytime I pick one of my “bucket list” ports of call the weather gets in my way (Half Moon Cay on multiple cruises and Grand Cayman). 

[PelicanBill]

A bit of change today. No land interference, brushing SW corner of PR and up the channel with less interaction with DR now… which means  storm can strengthen. Now forecast to be Hurricane tomorrow and on. The good news is will pass east of Grand Turk with only tropical storm strength there then well east of Bahamas. Timing will still impact some of your trips early this week. I would say no ships to Grand Turk Monday and Tuesday but all others may be okay!

 

can’t load image… weak internet. Later.

[PelicanBill]

here’s the image for today.

 

[AmbitionatBay]

Thank you so much @Pelican Bill for your updates and interpretation!  We are going to be on the 5 day Getaway leaving NYC this Thursday at 4:00 and are headed to Bermuda. I am hoping if it takes the path you show we can head down South a bit and then over to Bermuda to miss rough seas Thursday night and Friday.
 

Any thoughts?

[madeph]

Thank you for all of these updates!

 

We are heading out to the Bahamas and Caribbean Sept 25th and I’m hoping it won’t be too bad. Ports of call include Grand Cayman, Cozumel, and Harvest Caye. I see the forecast is showing thunderstorms and rain so that’s not very encouraging.

Would love to pick your brain for this sail.

[style9ine]

On 9/17/2022 at 6:15 PM, AmbitionatBay said:

Thank you so much @Pelican Bill for your updates and interpretation!  We are going to be on the 5 day Getaway leaving NYC this Thursday at 4:00 and are headed to Bermuda. I am hoping if it takes the path you show we can head down South a bit and then over to Bermuda to miss rough seas Thursday night and Friday.
 

Any thoughts?

Leaving on NCL same cruise. 2 am eastern time and Im debating on canceling. Looks like eain the entire week except Sunday 🤷🏼‍♀️ What would be penalties for me cancelling?? 
I dont see how not sun bathing and nausea for all and skipping port is a vacation. 
Advice anyone??? 

[style9ine]

On 9/15/2022 at 4:52 PM, PelicanBill said:

The GFS shows Fiona strengthening a LOT after curving away from the Bahamas, and going much too close to Bermuda. That is my biggest concern now.

Yours and mine as Im sailing there this week 😫 😔 

[wolft927]

Has anyone gotten any news regarding Itinerary changes due to Hurricane Fiona? Can't believe that the Cruise Lines have not made decisions for the ships that left yesterday or leaving today?