South Pacific weather next week

[mum and son]

I keep hearing tidbits about some cyclonic weather next week and have starting doing some research. I found this, which shows the South Pacific forecast on the evening we set sail from Brisbane (Sunday 8th), heading to Lifou first. I'll also be onboard for the 3 day cruise prior to this.

 

Does anyone have any comments? I don't know if I'm reading it all correctly but looks like a cyclone or some kind of low to my uneducated eye. Would we head into that, or is it far enough away, and judging from modelling looks to be moving further east, not back towards Aus? Not that we can see the future but I'm just curious about the science. If we were setting sail today and that was the current weather map, does the ship head out there?

 

While I feel sorry for new cruisers and families when itineraries change, it's not something that bothers me when I'm sailing from Aus. I've been to all of the islands before and I cruise for the holiday, not really the ports of call. I felt very differently when some turkey jumped overboard when I was sailing to Egypt and I nearly missed visiting Cairo, but I don't feel the same way about Noumea 😁. I'm also not concerned by rough seas (within reason) or poor weather. I'm just looking forward to getting away from work for a while. So, if it was today, would the cruise be affected... what do you think?

[OzKiwiJJ]

Cruise ships generally avoid going too close to severe weather and sea conditions. They might go around it if possible or even stay an extra day or two in a port. 

[arxcards]

It is a predicted tropical low. At 988 hpa, it has a way to go, and it should slowly weaken as it heads toward colder ocean temps. All the same, the ocean is predicted to be somewhat bumpy. They will make every effort to avoid the worst of the weather and make the crossing as comfortable as possible, but you will be cruising with a crosswind & swell. It will be much calmer when you get to the shallower water around the islands.

Current extract from Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea (bom.gov.au)

 

Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant tropical lows in the region. A surge in the monsoon is expected to move into the northwest Coral Sea on Thursday and a tropical low could form offshore from Cairns. If a tropical low does form it will move southeast and away from the Queensland coast and is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

 

[arxcards]

Just checked the lasted maps, and it doesn't look too bad. Might get a bit bumpy (3 metres) for a while on Monday arvo through to the wee hours of Tuesday, with the seas abating after that. All in all, not bad timing. Enjoy your cruise.

[MicCanberra]

3m isn't too bad.