Disturbances Discussions May-Jun-Jul-Aug 2023

[PelicanBill]

Starting off the 2023 season's discussion threads. My plan is to have 2 threads as you see on the title... will restart for the second half of the season (which is busier and will be Sep-Oct-Nov.)

 

First, some news!  We already had our first Atlantic tropical system back in JANUARY.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/PNSNHC/2023/PNSNHC.202305111500.txt 

Retroactive subtropical storm! It will not be given the first name, so the next storm to make TS strength will be Arlene.

 

Reminders

When a disturbance gets a name, I will open a dedicated thread if it has enough of a threat to land and cruises.  If it just swirls in the Atlantic I may not.

I watch storms in the Pacific and will note those that threaten land and cruises along the west coasts and Hawaii, but many form and go nowhere and may not get mentioned and watched.

 

IMPORTANT

I am not a meteorologist. I am an amateur enthusiast and semi-expert.  This is what I try to do:

* Interpret media coverage which is almost always sensationalist

* Interpret official NHC and other data to help understanding

* Interpret possible effects on cruises - careful predictions of POSSIBLE impacts and likely cruise line reactions. Many of us can cite official behaviors like port closing rules. We also remind people of risks of changes and cancellations of itineraries.

* Side discussions on land impacts and storm safety are welcome

 

Your opinions are always welcome!  Be civil. Don't attack other posts or mine, but you can always say "I disagree" and state why.

 

And for goodness sake, people, BUY TRIP INSURANCE

 

 

 

 

[PelicanBill]

Welcome to the official start of the 2023 Hurricane season!

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/01/weather/hurricane-season-what-to-expect-climate/index.html 

 

[PelicanBill]

Whoops. Looks like the tropics are right on schedule.  We have a gulf disturbance with a 50% chance to develop.

[PelicanBill]

Well some forecasters predicted our first named storm by 11pm eastern yesterday… but nope. And not looking likely. We have a depression not looking likely to develop.

 

[Honolulu Blue]

9 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

Well some forecasters predicted our first named storm by 11pm eastern yesterday… but nope. And not looking likely. We have a depression not looking likely to develop.

Tropical Storm ARLENE was named as of 2 PM EDT.  The Air Force hurricane hunters declared its existence, and who am I to disagree?  It's not expected to last long as a tropical storm.

 

To me, by far the most interesting thing about this storm is its current and projected path.  I've never seen a TS or hurricane move south in the Gulf.

Edited June 2, 2023 by Honolulu Blue

[Meander Ingwa]

I sent a tweet to my fav weather guy, michael snyder, to see if he can discuss.  I don't recall such a track either.  Michael is currently storm chasing 

[PelicanBill]

Yes indeed we got a name! But probably only for 6-12 hours!

 

do tell us if you learn about this kind of track. I think I’ve seen it only once or twice.

[SPacificbound]

Having lived in South Texas since I was 10, (which was a very long time ago) this is a subject that interests me.

[omahabob]

Southerly tracks are unusual, but not all that rare. Karl turned south in 2022 before dissipating, so maybe a weakening of the storm is related in some way.

 

https://www.tropicalweather.net/hurricane-tracks.html

Edited June 15, 2023 by omahabob

[SeaHunt]

Hi, just noting that our local Orlando station is now watching possible Brett:

 

https://www.wftv.com/news/local/double-vision-2-tropical-waves-off-africas-coast-could-develop-atlantic-this-week/JTEERO57DVFW7PDSVAY5VERBCU/

[omahabob]

Expected to reach tropical storm strength in about 24 hours, though there's still quite a bit of uncertainty about the track.

[cruise wizard]

We are on the 6/25 Wonder of the Seas Western itinerary...........fingers crossed!!!! When are announcements of itinerary changes usually announced by RCCL? Do you get an e-mail / text or does one need to keep checking the RCCL website often?

 

Thanks

[Honolulu Blue]

40 minutes ago, cruise wizard said:

We are on the 6/25 Wonder of the Seas Western itinerary...........fingers crossed!!!! When are announcements of itinerary changes usually announced by RCCL? Do you get an e-mail / text or does one need to keep checking the RCCL website often?

First of all, good luck to you on your upcoming cruise. 🙏

 

Second, generally, cruise lines will send e-mails and/or texts telling you what you need to do before embarkation.  Once you get onboard, you'll get memos and/or announcements from the captain that will keep you updated.  You can, of course, also check the Web site.  Announcements can come at any time.

 

Third, in the specific case of Royal, they had a meteorologist (James VanFleet) that did an excellent job of keeping their passengers and also the general public of what was happening weatherwise on the high seas.  Mr. VanFleet is no longer employed by Royal ☹️, and AFAIK, Royal is still looking for another meteorologist. ☹️

[cruise wizard]

12 minutes ago, Honolulu Blue said:

First of all, good luck to you on your upcoming cruise. 🙏

 

Second, generally, cruise lines will send e-mails and/or texts telling you what you need to do before embarkation.  Once you get onboard, you'll get memos and/or announcements from the captain that will keep you updated.  You can, of course, also check the Web site.  Announcements can come at any time.

 

Third, in the specific case of Royal, they had a meteorologist (James VanFleet) that did an excellent job of keeping their passengers and also the general public of what was happening weatherwise on the high seas.  Mr. VanFleet is no longer employed by Royal ☹️, and AFAIK, Royal is still looking for another meteorologist. ☹️

 

I looked at some "spaghetti models" and it looks like it either will turn North and miss Florida or could continue due East to effect Cozumel, Costa Maya................oh well - the good news is that the ships can avoid the storms.

[omahabob]

[gerelmx]

The trajectory is further south than yesterday

[omahabob]

4 hours ago, cruise wizard said:

We are on the 6/25 Wonder of the Seas Western itinerary...........fingers crossed!!!! When are announcements of itinerary changes usually announced by RCCL? Do you get an e-mail / text or does one need to keep checking the RCCL website often?

 

Thanks

If the storm follows the currently predicted path, and that's a big 'if', the bulk of the storm should have already moved past your cruise route. That doesn't mean you wouldn't get any less than desirable weather out on the periphery, but you hopefully wouldn't see any huge impact. This assumes you have the same itinerary as the Jul 16 Western Caribbean cruise. The June cruise isn't on their web site anymore.

[omahabob]

The images haven't updated today, probably because it's only going 15 MPH. But the advisories still have it projected on the same track and speed. It's supposed to speed up some in the next couple of days.

[AirGump]

As if Bret wasn’t stressful enough, now the next tropical storm which is expected to be named Cindy is right behind it!  I am leaving NY and am scheduled to be in cape canaveral 6-27 and the Bahamas 6-28/6-29 before returning back to NY.  How much trouble will I be in?

[cruise wizard]

33 minutes ago, AirGump said:

As if Bret wasn’t stressful enough, now the next tropical storm which is expected to be named Cindy is right behind it!  I am leaving NY and am scheduled to be in cape canaveral 6-27 and the Bahamas 6-28/6-29 before returning back to NY.  How much trouble will I be in?

 

I am guessing - NONE.  Cindy is forecasted to make a turn North and out into the open Atlantic.

 

We are cruising Sunday (6/25) out of Port Canaveral and not expecting any problems. Our itinerary is the Bahamas and then to the Western Caribbean (Cozumel, Costa Maya and Roatan) - Bret should already be past our route but any damage ahead of us is unknown.

[gerelmx]

If I'm not mistaken, Bret looks like he's headed for Honduras 🇭🇳 or Nicaragua 🇳🇮

Edited June 22, 2023 by gerelmx

[cruise wizard]

[AirGump]

6 hours ago, cruise wizard said:

What do you think that will mean for the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday ?

Edited June 22, 2023 by AirGump
Wrong wording

[cruise wizard]

13 minutes ago, AirGump said:

What do you think that will mean for the Bahamas on Tuesday and Wednesday?

 Looks like the forecast is for a sharp North turn and skirt the Bahamas - probably some rain and wind.

 

[omahabob]

It's expected to weaken there as well.