The demise of late deals?

[Megabear2]

The

12 minutes ago, Interestedcruisefan said:

That's so true

 

Basically if you want to book flights anywhere - then it's normally less than a year in advance you can even find them to book

 

And other than real bucket list holidays of a lifetime then one year in advance must surely be the norm for the vast majority of holidaymakers?

 

Obviously we all know experienced cruisers are a different breed to your normal holidaymakers and will book further in advance. 

 

However for the big ships like Arvia and Iona and the "new generation of cruisers" just getting people to book a year in advance will be early booking for most I would say

 

All I'm reading into this really is that those cruisers who do want to book at launch won't be paying more than those who leave it late

 

Which is fair enough and how it should be. These are loyal and experienced cruisers who shouldn't be penalized for planning ahead

 

I'm not convinced they will be getting any cheaper though either

 

 

The cruise industry has for years needed people to book 18 months minimum out.  This stretched to 2 years and now is as much as 2 1/2 years - I can book P&O until the end March 2026.  They are an outlier admittedly with very few on sale from other lines.  The problem with expecting such long term commitment is the balancing act for customers other than the retirees.  With today's economic uncertainty booking a year ahead never mind two will put some off committing.  There is the option to pay in instalments which may encourage some though.  It will be a fine tightrope to walk to ensure this promise of the lowest price at launch as the bean counters will need to be very sure of the entry price point to maintain this.  If the crystal ball worked this well I'd have Jeremy Hunt banging on my door to take it!

 

I'm not the atypical cruiser as I drop in and out on a whim and although price is partly a decider the destination is of more interest.  As I'm aging I'm more likely to look at longer more far flung destinations and I'm happy to fly.  However I'm conscious from chats onboard the ships that flying is very much off the radar for many.  It's these people, the ones with guaranteed financial availability that will look at those entry prices, especially the select fares, to decide if its a good deal. The price has to be exactly spot on and judging by comments about the price point seeming too high, there might be a problem on the mundane offerings, not so much the more "unique" ones.

 

Moley mentioned good sales on the new releases.  Indeed the entry level early savers look attractive on a few sailings, however select fares appear high.  Interestingly there is a 10% introductory discount on the select fares at present, cynical old me thinks that may just be to lock in some of the older/experienced cruisers.

 

Sorry ICF but I've used your favourite February Caribbean Arvia cruise as an experiment. You book the very cheapest inside saver fare, either after final payment date and this year 6 months in advance and have to date found reasonable prices. 

 

On the basis the price won't be bettered younwill pay £1,799pp plus £100pp to fly from Birmingham or Manchester on K604 departing 13/2/2026 (Total £3798).  With the special 10% discount the select fare would be £1,934pp plus £100pp - this would give £45 OBC - total £4068.  It must be remembered the select price will rise by 10% at some point on top of any "normal" increase, so a minimum £386.80 on top - £4454.80.

 

What do you think of these prices as someone who looks for the actual bottom line price when booking a cruise?  Would you still think they're a bargain?  I've no idea personally as I've nothing to compare with as my Caribbean cruises cost substantially more and my equivalent is now well over £8,000.

 

 

 

[majortom10]

Personally think all holiday companies whether cruise or land based would like see the demise of late deals. In their nature they are usually unsold accomodation that has not sold and are sold cheaper because anything is better than no sale at all. Unfortunately this in reality is never going to happen and cannot see ships sailing with empty cabins rather than offer cheap deals and don't think ships will be sold out that far in advance.

[crompton21]

For those newer to these boards....

Back in 2012 after the Costa Concordia incident when selling cruises was presumably quite hard, P&O came out with a price guarantee, along very similar lines of the price won't be cheaper and if it is we will refund the difference.

As those cruises approached sailing date, P&O invented a new type of fare (possibly the saver fare) and then stated that as it was a different fare the price guarantee didn't apply.

Please be aware that they have form with this sort of offer not being quite what it seems.

[9265359]

Chief commercial officer at Princess Cruises Terry Thorton said:

“Gone are the days of last-minute deep discounts close to departure dates.

"The best time to secure a spot on a 2024 or 2025 Princess cruise is right now.”

 

To quote Mandy Rice-Davies "He would say that, wouldn't he"

 

Lets see what happens in 2024 or 2025 if their early bookings don't hold up, and whether they are prepared to hold their nerve and sail with empty cabins rather than reduce the price, whilst continuing to pay the staff who should be serving those absent passengers and making no money from the bar, the excursions, etc.

[Megabear2]

3 minutes ago, crompton21 said:

For those newer to these boards....

Back in 2012 after the Costa Concordia incident when selling cruises was presumably quite hard, P&O came out with a price guarantee, along very similar lines of the price won't be cheaper and if it is we will refund the difference.

As those cruises approached sailing date, P&O invented a new type of fare (possibly the saver fare) and then stated that as it was a different fare the price guarantee didn't apply.

Please be aware that they have form with this sort of offer not being quite what it seems.

Yes, I know of no one who benefitted from the price guarantee, as I said in my original post a sprat to catch a makrel.

Edited October 20, 2023 by Megabear2

[Interestedcruisefan]

20 minutes ago, Megabear2 said:

The

The cruise industry has for years needed people to book 18 months minimum out.  This stretched to 2 years and now is as much as 2 1/2 years - I can book P&O until the end March 2026.  They are an outlier admittedly with very few on sale from other lines.  The problem with expecting such long term commitment is the balancing act for customers other than the retirees.  With today's economic uncertainty booking a year ahead never mind two will put some off committing.  There is the option to pay in instalments which may encourage some though.  It will be a fine tightrope to walk to ensure this promise of the lowest price at launch as the bean counters will need to be very sure of the entry price point to maintain this.  If the crystal ball worked this well I'd have Jeremy Hunt banging on my door to take it!

 

I'm not the atypical cruiser as I drop in and out on a whim and although price is partly a decider the destination is of more interest.  As I'm aging I'm more likely to look at longer more far flung destinations and I'm happy to fly.  However I'm conscious from chats onboard the ships that flying is very much off the radar for many.  It's these people, the ones with guaranteed financial availability that will look at those entry prices, especially the select fares, to decide if its a good deal. The price has to be exactly spot on and judging by comments about the price point seeming too high, there might be a problem on the mundane offerings, not so much the more "unique" ones.

 

Moley mentioned good sales on the new releases.  Indeed the entry level early savers look attractive on a few sailings, however select fares appear high.  Interestingly there is a 10% introductory discount on the select fares at present, cynical old me thinks that may just be to lock in some of the older/experienced cruisers.

 

Sorry ICF but I've used your favourite February Caribbean Arvia cruise as an experiment. You book the very cheapest inside saver fare, either after final payment date and this year 6 months in advance and have to date found reasonable prices. 

 

On the basis the price won't be bettered younwill pay £1,799pp plus £100pp to fly from Birmingham or Manchester on K604 departing 13/2/2026 (Total £3798).  With the special 10% discount the select fare would be £1,934pp plus £100pp - this would give £45 OBC - total £4068.  It must be remembered the select price will rise by 10% at some point on top of any "normal" increase, so a minimum £386.80 on top - £4454.80.

 

What do you think of these prices as someone who looks for the actual bottom line price when booking a cruise?  Would you still think they're a bargain?  I've no idea personally as I've nothing to compare with as my Caribbean cruises cost substantially more and my equivalent is now well over £8,000.

 

 

 

No

 

Having paid 1200 per person and now 1300 per person for last Feb and coming feb

 

Maybe at the most I would pay 1400 the following year

 

And I would imagine same would apply to many who have booked on value for money on Arvia so far

 

As it happens I'm looking at the 35 night  Iona cruise instead at less than 2k per person for next year. 10th Jan

[bobstheboy]

28 minutes ago, crompton21 said:

For those newer to these boards....

Back in 2012 after the Costa Concordia incident when selling cruises was presumably quite hard, P&O came out with a price guarantee, along very similar lines of the price won't be cheaper and if it is we will refund the difference.

As those cruises approached sailing date, P&O invented a new type of fare (possibly the saver fare) and then stated that as it was a different fare the price guarantee didn't apply.

Please be aware that they have form with this sort of offer not being quite what it seems.

Very interesting point. Whether they could be challenged in the Small Claims Court is debatable. I would give it a go if I was affected.

[Megabear2]

1 minute ago, Interestedcruisefan said:

No

 

Having paid 1200 per person and now 1300 per person for last Feb and coming feb

 

Maybe at the most I would pay 1400 the following year

 

And I would imagine same would apply to many who have booked on value for money on Arvia so far

 

As it happens I'm looking at the 35 night  Iona cruise instead at less than 2k per person for next year. 10th Jan

Thanks.  The Iona 2025 cruise is indeed a good deal at present having been on sale for quite some time. I belive its just dropped to £1999.00 for an inside and is less elsewhere?  The balcony saver however is £6398 with select starting at £8198 with obc of £275, or car parking plus £125 obc or coach plus £125obc.

 

The 2026 version has launched at £2199 saver inside.  These are exactly the examples of what I mean about pricing right.  The balconies on these two cruises are what the retiree experienced cruisers want and the 2026 entry price is £6898 (deck 8 forward) with the select starting at £7612 with £150obc or free car parking or coach - this has the 10% saving of £846.

 

Basically if you add on the £846 early discount the new cruise is £8458 so already in excess of the 2025 long on sale price.

 

Re 2025 I sail on the same day on QM2 for 35 nights.  We have a sheltered balcony and paid £7400 way back, not on launch.  I checked that price yesterday and its now just over £8500.

[terrierjohn]

1 hour ago, crompton21 said:

For those newer to these boards....

Back in 2012 after the Costa Concordia incident when selling cruises was presumably quite hard, P&O came out with a price guarantee, along very similar lines of the price won't be cheaper and if it is we will refund the difference.

As those cruises approached sailing date, P&O invented a new type of fare (possibly the saver fare) and then stated that as it was a different fare the price guarantee didn't apply.

Please be aware that they have form with this sort of offer not being quite what it seems.

But the current Princess price guarantee only covers 72 hrs after booking, so even if P&O follow suit then later price reductions would not lead to any reduction on existing bookings.

[laslomas]

1 hour ago, crompton21 said:

For those newer to these boards....

Back in 2012 after the Costa Concordia incident when selling cruises was presumably quite hard, P&O came out with a price guarantee, along very similar lines of the price won't be cheaper and if it is we will refund the difference.

 

 

An idea would be to have a price guarantee whereas the difference in price would be given back as On Board Credit. So not actually refunding the money. Some passengers would probably spend less 'real' money on board due to the extra OBC, but at least the cruise line has their original money in the coffers.

I wonder how the cruise lines manage in the U.S. as they honour price drops for their customers in the form of a refund up to final payment, and as OBC after that. 

[bobstheboy]

49 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

But the current Princess price guarantee only covers 72 hrs after booking, so even if P&O follow suit then later price reductions would not lead to any reduction on existing bookings.

They have announced that 24/25 launch prices will be the lowest, they will only increase.

[Interestedcruisefan]

11 minutes ago, bobstheboy said:

They have announced that 24/25 launch prices will be the lowest, they will only increase.

Or stay the same?

[bobstheboy]

Just now, Interestedcruisefan said:

Or stay the same?

That's an obvious alternative.

[majortom10]

14 minutes ago, bobstheboy said:

They have announced that 24/25 launch prices will be the lowest, they will only increase.

But at £3000 for a 12 nt British Isles cruise in a balcony with Princess Plus in May 2025 is by no means cheap. Having done 5 BI cruises in the past this is very expensive and cannot imagine that price ever going any higher only lower. If it doesn't the ship will sail half empty.

[terrierjohn]

14 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

But at £3000 for a 12 nt British Isles cruise in a balcony with Princess Plus in May 2025 is by no means cheap. Having done 5 BI cruises in the past this is very expensive and cannot imagine that price ever going any higher only lower. If it doesn't the ship will sail half empty.

I suppose that depends on the price they set in the US, since I assume BI cruises will appeal more to them.

[bobstheboy]

26 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

But at £3000 for a 12 nt British Isles cruise in a balcony with Princess Plus in May 2025 is by no means cheap. Having done 5 BI cruises in the past this is very expensive and cannot imagine that price ever going any higher only lower. If it doesn't the ship will sail half empty.

I agree., t's not sustainable. They will get creative as Crompton21 has said when it happened before.

[bobstheboy]

These deals make the thread title look silly.

 

Arcadia 9th December 12 nights Southampton to the med, balcony £595, inside £495.

 

Ventura same prices for December, and others similar.

[Megabear2]

29 minutes ago, bobstheboy said:

These deals make the thread title look silly.

 

Arcadia 9th December 12 nights Southampton to the med, balcony £595, inside £495.

 

Ventura same prices for December, and others similar.

Apparently though this Princess "promise" is for cruises in the new release, not 2023/2024 which have been on sale for a long time.  Any action from other members of the Carnival family including P&O will presumably be from the release for April 2026.  

Edited October 20, 2023 by Megabear2

[terrierjohn]

35 minutes ago, Megabear2 said:

Apparently though this Princess "promise" is for cruises in the new release, not 2023/2024 which have been on sale for a long time.  Any action from other members of the Carnival family including P&O will presumably be from the release for April 2026.  

I thought that Princess said that the best prices for  2024/5 cruises would be now, hoping that the prices by next year would have increased.

[bobstheboy]

41 minutes ago, Megabear2 said:

Apparently though this Princess "promise" is for cruises in the new release, not 2023/2024 which have been on sale for a long time.  Any action from other members of the Carnival family including P&O will presumably be from the release for April 2026.  

My point is that cruise lines promising lowest prices at launch will not be able to match these late deals and struggle. It cannot be sustainable.

[Dermotsgirl]

5 hours ago, crompton21 said:

For those newer to these boards....

Back in 2012 after the Costa Concordia incident when selling cruises was presumably quite hard, P&O came out with a price guarantee, along very similar lines of the price won't be cheaper and if it is we will refund the difference.

As those cruises approached sailing date, P&O invented a new type of fare (possibly the saver fare) and then stated that as it was a different fare the price guarantee didn't apply.

Please be aware that they have form with this sort of offer not being quite what it seems.

 

I remember this very well. When this price guarantee was available, I booked the 2013 Azura cruise to the Black Sea.  I booked the cruise as soon as it was released, as there was only one cruise with this itinerary each year, and I really wanted to do it.

 

Over the next several months, as the price of the cruise dropped, P&O kept adding to my OBC.  I ended up with about £1100 in OBC!  It was a 24 night cruise and it was easy to spend the money, including the purchase of a Radley bag, bottles of perfume, more visits than usual to the speciality restaurants and several bottle of wine that were more expensive than our usual.

 

5 hours ago, Megabear2 said:

Yes, I know of no one who benefitted from the price guarantee, as I said in my original post a sprat to catch a makrel.

You know someone now ! 

[Dermotsgirl]

I find it fairly mind boggling that its possible to book a cruise as far ahead as March 2026, nearly two and half years in the future.

 

I was willing to do this at one point, as we were doing the longer cruises which only appeared on the schedules once or twice a year, so it made sense to book early, so we could be sure of getting what we wanted.

 

Although, it backfired in 2020, when it took a long time to unwind all the cruises that we had booked, as far ahead as January 2022, but we eventually got all our money back apart from £100 which we wrote off.

 

For me, things are different now.  We are unlikely to return to the really long cruises, and are more likely to do short, bog standard cruises. Booking 24 months in advance seems too far ahead for that sort of cruise - 12 months is about as far ahead that I would consider.  If it ends up that the pricing is not competitive later on, I'll be just as likely to do something else other than cruising - just not so bothered about cruises now. 

[Megabear2]

33 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

I thought that Princess said that the best prices for  2024/5 cruises would be now, hoping that the prices by next year would have increased.

Princess and Cunard have as far as I know only issued a release in September covering up to end 2025.  P&O are a little out of alignment with cruises to March 2026.  That is their newest release isn't it, up to November 2025?  Not sailing on them regularly I pay scant attention but thought they'd not long had a release and this comment/policy referred to that release.

 

 

[Megabear2]

24 minutes ago, Dermotsgirl said:

 

I remember this very well. When this price guarantee was available, I booked the 2013 Azura cruise to the Black Sea.  I booked the cruise as soon as it was released, as there was only one cruise with this itinerary each year, and I really wanted to do it.

 

Over the next several months, as the price of the cruise dropped, P&O kept adding to my OBC.  I ended up with about £1100 in OBC!  It was a 24 night cruise and it was easy to spend the money, including the purchase of a Radley bag, bottles of perfume, more visits than usual to the speciality restaurants and several bottle of wine that were more expensive than our usual.

 

You know someone now ! 

Yes but you got the difference back in OBC which would be totally useless to me.  Even on my world cruise on QM2 my account including gratuities struggled to make $1,000.  On a normal cruise I'd not be able to spend it as I don't buy handbags, am allergic to most perfumes, the clothing onboard is usually too small for me and my alcohol consumption is minimal.  However it's a mute point as the single fares very rarely drop anyway so we are disadvantaged to start.

 

If the OBC could be spent before sailing (Moley intimidated coming soon) I might be in a better position as I spend a very large amount on excursions when I'm alone and if my OH is with me speciality dining and excursions would do well.

[bobstheboy]

2 hours ago, Megabear2 said:

Yes but you got the difference back in OBC which would be totally useless to me.  Even on my world cruise on QM2 my account including gratuities struggled to make $1,000.  On a normal cruise I'd not be able to spend it as I don't buy handbags, am allergic to most perfumes, the clothing onboard is usually too small for me and my alcohol consumption is minimal.  However it's a mute point as the single fares very rarely drop anyway so we are disadvantaged to start.

 

If the OBC could be spent before sailing (Moley intimidated coming soon) I might be in a better position as I spend a very large amount on excursions when I'm alone and if my OH is with me speciality dining and excursions would do well.

I missed Moley's comment re OBC. Where did he post it ?

 

Not disputing your comment, just wanted to read what he said.

 

Thanks