Rhine water levels 2024 and similar topics

[notamermaid]

The river level at Koblenz peaked around midnight and all gauges up to Cologne now show declining figures, with Cologne at its peak now. The situation will ease further. As of now it looks like the coming rain will keep levels up relatively high and possibly cause another wave. This may or may not be as high as this one, we cannot say yet what exactly will happen in the Upper Rhine valley.

 

It is Whitsuntide and a typical time for Kirmes (church fete) celebrations. These usually have fairground rides and unfortunately along the Rhine the meadows and embankments are often used for those. So in Mondorf near Bonn a small Kirmes needed to be moved due to the flooding. In other news, camping areas along the Rhine are often flooded and again at Koblenz on the Moselle side, many tents and mobile homes had to be moved. While they are used to doing that for the winter, it is not a standard occurrence in May.

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

The river is recovering well, with all stations up to Rees now showing declining levels. That means the wave is now at the border with the Netherlands. With the lower temperatures and the continued rainy weather we will not see the levels at the gauges going down much more. At Maxau a new wave is indicated for the 25th but as of now does not look as high as the one that has just passed over the weekend. Kaub will of course also remain high and most likely stay above 300cm for a week.

 

It has been a wet winter that has replenished the water table more than previous winters have been able to. The spring rain has added to that. I show you what I mean, the gauge at Maxau is running well above the long-term mean on many days as regards water levels. 2024 so far, the blue line:

 

So while the rain is a bit annoying, overall this gives us plenty of water in the soil and me a good feeling for days without any rain in summer. But, never a guarantee with the rivers... You can see the wide range of figures at Maxau and by how much the level can vary any time of year.

 

notamermaid

 

 

 

 

[notamermaid]

The forecast at Maxau gauge has been amended for the better, now there appears to be not another peak, let us call it a more undulating graph. The level will stay high overall, also because it has rained in Switzerland where levels are above average in lakes and rivers, but pleasant.

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

In other news. A fire broke out during the night Tuesday into Wednesday on a river cruise ship in Arnhem. The Bellejour is docked there as a boat for asylum seekers. Another ship, the MS VistaRio is used as such a boat. She is docked in Meppel and replaced the MS Heidelberg earlier this year which sailed to the Danube and has just been involved in an accident. I know of two more river cruise ships used for purposes that they were not designed for, one is on the Danube and one more is on the Rhine. That is the MS Viola, used for Ukranians.

 

At Rüdesheim, a river cruise ship hit a buoy while turning and tore it from its anchorage. The ship sailed on without reporting the damage but another's ships crew saw it and reported it to the police.

 

The MS Porto Mirante, the 40th ship of Scylla, was christened in Düsseldorf earlier this month. She is now in Boven-Hardinxveld in the Netherlands, awaiting her transport to Portugal.

 

notamermaid

 

 

 

[notamermaid]

The weather continues to be rainy, more scattered strong showers are sweeping over the Vosges mountains and Germany, so that the river will stay fairly high. Maxau gauge forecast suggests a return to official flood vigilance later today. This means on the other hand, the plus side, that Kaub gauge will stay high, that is over 300cm, into the first week of June most likely. So the river is far away from creating low water issues.

 

As regards the buoy at Rüdesheim. You can see the missing green one at about the Boosenburg on this webcam: https://heimatzeithotels.panomax.com/

In the archive on Tuesday, 21.05. at 14:00 the buoy is still there, at 14:10 it is gone.

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

There is a weather warning in place for much of the Upper Rhine valley and the hills to the East, like the Breisgau and the Swabian Alb. As I write, it is not raining in Basel. Here is the webcam showing one of the bridges: https://www.feratel.com/webcams/schweiz/basel.html

Current temperature is 15.8 Celsius. A bit cool for a May afternoon. It is only just a little warmer where I am, around 18 Celsius.

 

In the webcam of Bingen I think I can see the new "The Gentleman" docked at Rüdesheim on 21 May. Hmm, I still like the design.

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

As expected, Maxau gauge has gone to flood vigilance but it is not a big deal. It is already past the peak.Next week will see continued high levels with the gauge going in and out of the threshold for flood vigilance. Kaub gauge will stay high but most likely do not go over 400cm.

 

All good.

 

Interesting sight today on the Rhine - I have read. I did not see it myself. Another hull transport of a river cruise ship is happening. You may be able to spot the double barge Johanna pulling the BN 213 hull alongside between Düsseldorf and Duisburg tonight. I do not know which river cruise ship the hull will become.

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

A bit of speculation around the hull BN 213, intriguing. It has arrived in Werkendam in the Netherlands apparently, for outfitting. That is where the Concordia Damen shipyard is. The info I found on the website says that this will be a hybrid propulsion ship and 135m long, with especially low draft. The shipyard built the Arosa Sena with her innovative propulsion. The Arosa Sena is the largest river cruise ship on the Rhine.

 

notamermaid

 

[Cleopatra99]

On 5/26/2024 at 5:28 AM, notamermaid said:

As expected, Maxau gauge has gone to flood vigilance but it is not a big deal. It is already past the peak.Next week will see continued high levels with the gauge going in and out of the threshold for flood vigilance. Kaub gauge will stay high but most likely do not go over 400cm.

 

 

 

May I ask .. are river conditions continuing to improve ??

 

Thank you

 

[notamermaid]

8 minutes ago, Cleopatra99 said:

 

May I ask .. are river conditions continuing to improve ??

 

Thank you

 

Hmm, improve from now, no I would not say so. The river is let us say undulating at a high level in the Upper Rhine valley. Just plain high without causing trouble - unless some one reports on changing ports or a problem at Basel for example. Those are details I can never know. The river is running comparatively high for May but it is not a big deal as such from what I can tell here. The Middle Rhine valley is high but fine. It is going to be cloudy with some rain during the week, hence the undulating graph(s) of the river level. The Moselle has much improved meaning we can expect continued high but favourable levels beyond the mouth of the Moselle with the Rhine at Koblenz. These two graphs together may help to illustrate what I mean. First, Maxau is staying high:

 

Second, Andernach not far beyond Koblenz is not seeing that:

 

It is difficult to say how much influence the Main and Moselle have day on day but it always eases the situation when the two large tributaries are at relatively normal levels. Before those two there is the Neckar river which can of course also flood. It reaches the Rhine at Mannheim which is downstream from Maxau gauge. That river is still running a little high but has gone down alright since last week.

 

I think "vigilance" is indeed the right word for the Upper Rhine valley now. Basel is doing okay but forecast to rise. That gauge is a bit more difficult to interpret so I cannot put it into perspective, I just read that the authorities expect a higher volume of water in that stretch over the next week, i.e. the area will see rain in varying amounts.

 

notamermaid

 

 

[Cleopatra99]

4 minutes ago, notamermaid said:

 

 

 

 

I think "vigilance" is indeed the right word for the Upper Rhine valley now. Basel is doing okay but forecast to rise. That gauge is a bit more difficult to interpret so I cannot put it into perspective, I just read that the authorities expect a higher volume of water in that stretch over the next week, i.e. the area will see rain in varying amounts.

 

notamermaid

 

 

.. I should also have asked, are cruises on the Rhine and Moselle running as scheduled or are there high water disruptions ?

 

Thank you

[notamermaid]

21 minutes ago, Cleopatra99 said:

.. I should also have asked, are cruises on the Rhine and Moselle running as scheduled or are there high water disruptions ?

 

Thank you

From what I can tell river cruises are running smoothly. Lots of ships about on the river and signalling on the tracker websites in all the standard ports. Again, details I cannot know but the river levels are okay as far as the authorities' regulations are concerned. I should mention that the river is divided into several sections which have their own specific levels at which the authorities issue a river traffic ban. M_II is that line on a graph, for the Rhine gauges. At Kaub this is clearly marked on the wall:

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pegel_Kaub#/media/Datei:PegelKaubRhein.JPG

When that level is reached the ban is in the Rhine Gorge but not at Andernach for example. That is already another section with a different gauge as marker.

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

Ever wondered what the Rhine looked like at the time the Romantic movement brought the first proper tourists to the area? Okay, I should start from scratch. "Tourists" in that term have been around only since the 1770s and the Romantics flocked to the Middle Rhine valley - or lived there - from about 1790 and well into the 19th century, depending on whether you look at literature, paintings or music. I suppose one could argue that the heirs of that sentiment are still coming to the area...

 

Well, with the hills and the castles that are still there (albeit a bit rebuilt and modernized for modern man who likes trains and roads) we can leave that area aside and have a look at the Lower Rhine valley - which I will skip as it has become industrial partly and has a more or less straight historic development - and the Upper Rhine valley. That is a part of the Rhine valley which may be almost unrecognizable to the early travellers of 1770. We will have a look at that in more detail. The years 1815 to 1850 have brought many changes to the Rhine valley geographically, economically and politically with the industrial revolution playing a huge part. But for the Upper Rhine valley one man can be said to have caused a revolution, not politically but for the Rhine river, a major slow but brutal change. I start at the end. Should you ever happen to walk past this gravestone in Paris you will after the next post know what the engravings are about (courtesy of a photographer, I will link to the page in the next post):

 

notamermaid

 

Edited May 27 by notamermaid

[notamermaid]

On the gravestone we see a globe, a bridge, a river and mathematical symbols in a book. Maths and water is engineering and hydrology in this case, but what is that scroll with what looks like ribbons on it? It shows the Rhine and its meanders, but with the straight line dominating, meaning running above and cutting through the other ribbons. The gravestone is that of Johann Gottfried Tulla who straightened the Upper Rhine and as they say "tamed" it. The Upper Rhine valley had been an ever changing river with no one bed as we know it today, but a series of channels that changed in flooding and drought as well as wide meanders. In 1809 Tulla presented his plan to straighten the Rhine after having worked on the regulation of the Swiss river Linth. Here is the Wikipedia page in German with the photo I have cropped in the previous post: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johann_Gottfried_Tulla

The English page is a little short: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johann_Gottfried_Tulla

 

Shipping as we know it today was not possible in the far Upper Rhine valley until fairly late and modern barges only reached Basel in 1904 - it was a successful trial run. This is how the Swiss reported on 100 years of modern shipping in 2004: https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/banking-fintech/basel-s-shipping-industry-turns-100/68136

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

Maxau gauge is back on flood mark I, as expected and likely to reach the flood vigilance status late tomorrow. Basel as I mentioned on Sunday is expecting a high volume of water and the forecast appears to have worsened a bit, i.e. there may be more water coming down the Rhine than had been thought. This will happen in the second half of Thursday. Likewise, the modelling for Maxau shows that rise on Friday. As the modelling can change significantly within a few hours I will leave it at that and report back tomorrow. I am not an alarmist but I do admit that I do not like the graph and reports. Newspapers like dramatic headlines but I kind of share that nervous sentiment at this point at least.

 

notamermaid

 

[RDVIK2016]

4 hours ago, notamermaid said:

On the gravestone we see a globe, a bridge, a river and mathematical symbols in a book. Maths and water is engineering and hydrology in this case, but what is that scroll with what looks like ribbons on it? It shows the Rhine and its meanders, but with the straight line dominating, meaning running above and cutting through the other ribbons. The gravestone is that of Johann Gottfried Tulla who straightened the Upper Rhine and as they say "tamed" it. The Upper Rhine valley had been an ever changing river with no one bed as we know it today, but a series of channels that changed in flooding and drought as well as wide meanders. In 1809 Tulla presented his plan to straighten the Rhine after having worked on the regulation of the Swiss river Linth. Here is the Wikipedia page in German with the photo I have cropped in the previous post: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johann_Gottfried_Tulla

The English page is a little short: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johann_Gottfried_Tulla

 

Shipping as we know it today was not possible in the far Upper Rhine valley until fairly late and modern barges only reached Basel in 1904 - it was a successful trial run. This is how the Swiss reported on 100 years of modern shipping in 2004: https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/banking-fintech/basel-s-shipping-industry-turns-100/68136

 

notamermaid

 

Yesterday I did a Google image search to find out to whom you were referring and one of the first hits lead me to the Alemannisch Wikipedia page for Tulla. I certainly can't understand spoken Alemannische dialects, but seeing it in written form was almost as bad and I braced myself to see something just as bad or worse when you wrote "This is how the Swiss reported"...

[notamermaid]

Computer modelling has put the High Rhine on a pre-alert for flooding. That is from the mouth of the Aare river with the Rhine to Basel. The next river section, Basel to Strasbourg/Kehl has no such status yet. The modelling for Maxau gauge is a bit better than last night but it is clear that we will see flooding. The figure now is 649cm, flood vigilance kicks in at 650cm. While exact figures for tomorrow and Friday can only be tentative we can safely say that 700cm is a level we should expect by Saturday. Unfortunately, it may not stop there.

 

Rainy weather has certainly set in and I can see heavy rain coming down over the Vosges mountains on the radar imaging. This water is feeding the Meurthe and the Moselle with the remaining reduced clouds raining over the Alsace side, meaning Strasbourg, etc., from where the rain feeds the Rhine. This morning it looks as if the bands of rain will "unload" mostly in the West and not give much rain to Bavaria. This of course may change tomorrow.

 

Kaub gauge is likely to reach flood mark I on Monday or Tuesday.

 

We will review the situation tonight.

 

notamermaid

 

 

[notamermaid]

Over in the Danube thread I have noted the change to a weather forecast that is anticipating heavy rain over Bavaria. For the Rhine as a quick interlude let us have a quick geography lesson to explain the uncertainty in forecasts and partly the fast changes in the computer modelling. Depending on how much rain falls we will of course see the figures change in real time and in the forecasts but it also depends on where the rail falls as we have two distinct divides in the South of Germany and the adjacent areas of France. Here is the map:

 

This is the Southwest corner of Germany with Basel marking the Rhine knee or bend where the river turns north. First divide: The red interrupted line is the early alert for flooding of the Rhine. The red stripes indicate the area where there is also an alert. That water goes to the Rhine. Above in orange is the area that is on proper flood warning. Here we have the continental divide, i.e. the water shed, so that water goes into the Danube (thick line just above it). A small shift in clouds brings a major change potentially. Second divide: In the left of the screenshot the blue line is the Moselle source area, the blue line going out of the screenshot to the top is the Saar. Both rivers drain into the Rhine but much further North so that water will not go to the Upper Rhine valley but the Middle Rhine valley. A shift in the clouds over the Vosges mountains that separate the rivers from the Rhine (in your mind put those mountains in the grey area between the blue lines and Strasbourg) can cause a major change in the forecasts for the river levels.

 

That's it. In short: quite some uncertainty in the forecast.

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

With the uncertainty in the graph I prefer not to look far into the weekend at Maxau gauge. I would say it looks a tiny bit better than this morning. As of now, very mild flooding will happen as a certainty. What can we expect? For now I will say that the situation will ease a little during the next 20 hours then going into Friday the level is very likely to rise relatively fast so that during the course of Saturday morning the figure will be 700cm.

 

We will know more by tomorrow afternoon.

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

Brief update. The rainy weather has moved to Bavaria today and the East, as well as the Czech Republic. Plenty of water for the Elbe basin. We are of course watching Maxau gauge closely and there the figure is down to 638cm. This is a brief interlude before the high volume of water comes from Basel and the High Rhine. The gauge will go back to flood vigilance of 650cm some time tomorrow and after that - well we are not sure, but the High Rhine has gone to flood alert and it is raining in parts of the Swabian Alb and the Black Forest.

 

More info tonight.

 

notamermaid

 

 

[notamermaid]

I have returned late from an afternoon trip and saw the river being at a high but still normal level, wondering what the flood warning map will look like next time I put it on my screen... It has got worse, as was to be expected, but first things first. Maxau gauge is going up again, now at 649cm so the 650cm we will see earlier than expected.

 

This is the current map:

 

We see the High Rhine on flood warning, with the Rhine up to Mannheim now on the early alert. Stuttgart going North shows the Neckar river on early alert which is not good for the Rhine of course.

 

notamermaid

 

 

[notamermaid]

The river at Basel has risen significantly and is on navigational flood mark I. This is what that looks like:

 

That water will reach Strasbourg and Germany during the night and tomorrow. I am afraid to say that a river traffic ban around Maxau has shown up in the predictions for two days now. This was still a modelling too far out into the future for me to alert you but we are now seeing the rising waters and continued rain so this river traffic ban is still in the graph and now we are in forecast time, meaning we can be more certain of what the situation will be on Saturday. Maxau graph suggests going to 750cm during the night from Saturday into Sunday. That is then a river cruise ban which the authorities will issue.

 

In short a substantial rise at Maxau is a given, best case scenario right now is that the river will peak just below the 750cm, most likely scenario is that the river will briefly reach 800cm.

 

A brief look at the gauges downstream from Maxau reveals that the authorities expect levels to go up to navigational flood mark I. For the Middle Rhine valley it is too early to say but Kaub looks increasingly likely, too. For that gauge we have a long term probability chart and that indicates this as a high probability.

 

notamermaid

 

 

[notamermaid]

Brief update. It is not looking good. Maxau gauge is up to 663cm and on a fast trajectory up to 700cm.

 

More on this later.

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

The situation is dramatic in parts of Baden-Württemberg. This is the flood warning map:

 

It is reminiscent of 2013. Where it is purple on the map the authorities expect "a month of rain to fall in 48 hours". This is Basel:

 

At Maxau 750cm are expected for Saturday afternoon. Best case scenario are 820cm Sunday lunchtime. River traffic ban almost inevitable according to the forecast.

 

notamermaid

 

 

 

[Bizziecruzer]

@notamermaid I really appreciate your informative posts. Please excuse my ignorance. How would this impact cruises that commence in Amsterdam to Budapest in 12 days time? I understand there may be changes in ships that are not able to travel further along the rivers.  Thankyou in advance for your response