Carnival Cruise Line Not Planning to Order Smaller Ships

[BlerkOne]

2 minutes ago, elcuchio24 said:

 

It's younger than you think, and just going to get younger. 

It has to. Is life expectancy still decreasing?

[aborgman]

43 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

It has to. Is life expectancy still decreasing?

 

2020 and 2021 were the only drops, and 2022 was back above 2021 numbers... and by 2024 it's expected to be above 2019 peak numbers.

 

...and life expectancy at birth has continued to increase, with basically no drop offs.

[BlerkOne]

7 minutes ago, aborgman said:

 

2020 and 2021 were the only drops, and 2022 was back above 2021 numbers... and by 2024 it's expected to be above 2019 peak numbers.

 

...and life expectancy at birth has continued to increase, with basically no drop offs.

While world population continues to grow (for now), growth rate is down from the peak.

[aborgman]

2 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

While world population continues to grow (for now), growth rate is down from the peak.

 

Yes... but growth rate slowing is still growth, not decline - and has absolutely nothing to do with the temporary 2 year drop in (USA only) life expectancy... that largely was a product of men over 50 dying of opioid overdoses and people over 60 dying of COVID.

[BlerkOne]

1 minute ago, aborgman said:

 

Yes... but growth rate slowing is still growth, not decline - and has absolutely nothing to do with the temporary 2 year drop in (USA only) life expectancy... that largely was a product of men over 50 dying of opioid overdoses and people over 60 dying of COVID.

And none of that has anything to do with Carnival is taking a pause from ordering smaller ships.

[aborgman]

1 minute ago, BlerkOne said:

And none of that has anything to do with Carnival is taking a pause from ordering smaller ships.

 

Carnival isn't "taking a pause" from ordering smaller ships.

 

Carnival is NEVER AGAIN ordering smaller ships.

 

That ship has sailed, never to return.

[BlerkOne]

2 minutes ago, aborgman said:

 

Carnival isn't "taking a pause" from ordering smaller ships.

 

Carnival is NEVER AGAIN ordering smaller ships.

 

That ship has sailed, never to return.

Never say never. Not even JH said never.

[elcuchio24]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

And none of that has anything to do with Carnival is taking a pause from ordering smaller ships.

 

Not sure how we got into age demographics so deep, but I feel it comes down to this. Older people generally like smaller ships, likely because they are less crazy and have less people. Younger people, including people with kids in their 40's, like myself, prefer larger ships with more things to do. That demographic will continue to rise, as older folks cruise less do to age/etc. Its a ever diminishing demographic.

 

Cruise lines all across the board, including CCL, are building ever larger and wilder large ships. They're doing it for a reason. Proof is in the puddin'.

[Itried4498]

1 hour ago, elcuchio24 said:

 

Not sure how we got into age demographics so deep, but I feel it comes down to this. Older people generally like smaller ships, likely because they are less crazy and have less people. Younger people, including people with kids in their 40's, like myself, prefer larger ships with more things to do. That demographic will continue to rise, as older folks cruise less do to age/etc. Its a ever diminishing demographic.

 

Cruise lines all across the board, including CCL, are building ever larger and wilder large ships. They're doing it for a reason. Proof is in the puddin'.

Good post but I think it’s more of a generational thing - that is, people who happen to be older value the traditional cruising experience whereas younger generations value nonstop entertainment and don’ta want to waste time on a two hour formal dining experience.  And most younger people can’t take extended vacations, so cruise lines can’t get maximum revenues from Mega Ships on 2+ week trips. Thus, they’re able to market older ships on such cruises and appeal to an older demo.

 

That said, the primary reason the industry is building Mega Ships is because they have lower per cabin costs than smaller ships.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Carnival eventually order smaller ships, because they’re necessary to serve certain ports with the bonus of being more versatile for extended voyages.

[BlerkOne]

3 hours ago, elcuchio24 said:

 

Not sure how we got into age demographics so deep, but I feel it comes down to this. Older people generally like smaller ships, likely because they are less crazy and have less people. Younger people, including people with kids in their 40's, like myself, prefer larger ships with more things to do. That demographic will continue to rise, as older folks cruise less do to age/etc. Its a ever diminishing demographic.

 

Cruise lines all across the board, including CCL, are building ever larger and wilder large ships. They're doing it for a reason. Proof is in the puddin'.

I see things converging. Younger people need their kids to be entertained, and older people are going to need floating, affordable nursing homes. It makes sense to me to partition the behemoths by age.

 

Are young people today never going to age?

 

The need for smaller ships is never going to go away. Too many ports can't take, don't want large masses of people. We are seeing more push back these days.

[Itried4498]

12 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

I see things converging. Younger people need their kids to be entertained, and older people are going to need floating, affordable nursing homes. It makes sense to me to partition the behemoths by age.

 

Are young people today never going to age?

 

The need for smaller ships is never going to go away. Too many ports can't take, don't want large masses of people. We are seeing more push back these days.

I agree that smaller ships will still be a thing simply out of necessity but young people today aren’t going to mimic their parents.  30 years ago, who would’ve thought that in the mid-2020s almost a third of 30-45yo men described themselves as “gamers?”

Edited August 1 by Itried4498

[BlerkOne]

17 minutes ago, Itried4498 said:

I agree that smaller ships will still be a thing simply out of necessity but young people today aren’t going to mimic their parents.  30 years ago, who would’ve thought that in the mid-2020s almost a third of 30-45yo men described themselves as “gamers?”

I could spend hours in bars playing Asteroids.

[Sailor75]

Carnival isn't the industry leader, Royal is. Royal has been building bigger and bigger ships and Carnival said they wouldn't, now they realize they should've been building bigger ships. Now, Royal is going into smaller ships and Carnival is saying no. In a few years I bet Carnival changes their minds; they're always behind.

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, Sailor75 said:

Carnival isn't the industry leader, Royal is. Royal has been building bigger and bigger ships and Carnival said they wouldn't, now they realize they should've been building bigger ships. Now, Royal is going into smaller ships and Carnival is saying no. In a few years I bet Carnival changes their minds; they're always behind.

Royal is the leader at shopping malls. Carnival will replace older ships in due time, when it makes sense.

[JMAE]

18 hours ago, aborgman said:

 

Carnival isn't "taking a pause" from ordering smaller ships.

 

Carnival is NEVER AGAIN ordering smaller ships.

 

That ship has sailed, never to return.

Until a market change occurs.  If the port restriction trend continues the search for ports that want or can handle one or more ships with 8,000 to 10,000 guests may dictate what happens.  With multiple of these ships in port places an enormous amount of pressure on local resources.  I think cruise line fleets will be diverse, so cruise lines can still get into ports that have limited access by physical limitations and/or by voters in their communities.          

[Joebucks]

What in the world makes people think Carnival would build "smaller" ships anytime soon? Is it your personal preference that trumps all, or is it some reverse-engineered scenario to weep for smaller ports? The Spirit class isn't going way. However, you can enjoy its layout all you want, it makes no sense to build another. The Conquest class can do almost anything the Spirit can, in most places. They will reposition those as newer ships take their place today.

  

On 7/27/2024 at 2:16 PM, BlerkOne said:

I don't see this ever. I can see perhaps a new Carnival benefit of a one time trial of other CCL cruise lines loyalty programs.

 

The sheer number of Carnival cruisers dwarfs the number of cruisers of the other lines and would result in their most loyal customers likely looking outside of the Carnival family. The other lines would quickly run out of resources and budget.

 

I'm certain you're overconfident that this will overrun their other lines. Even if it becomes a problem, it's an excellent one to have. Too many customers are looking to purchase more expensive products. Who is having this problem and trying to get rid of it? Might there be growing pains? Sure. However, any loyalty program that gets people to spend more, has reached the intent of a loyalty program.

 

On 7/28/2024 at 11:06 AM, Theosprey247 said:

Can you imagine 8,000 people on HMC? Or 16,000 if two ships are docked? No thanks!

 

If I was a betting man, I'd throw big money down on this being the future. It just makes sense with the growth of cruising and implementation of a dock. It wont be 8000 people laying on the beach in the experience you know today. It will probably get some Celebration Key/Coco Cay treatment where the island is developed more, and inland, you have amusement parks, shopping, bungalows, restaurants, etc. Of course, this will cause people to become fuming mad, because those trees and everything no one is using inland, will ruin the experience once gone. Because I remember "the way it used to be."

[aborgman]

34 minutes ago, JMAE said:

Until a market change occurs.  If the port restriction trend continues the search for ports that want or can handle one or more ships with 8,000 to 10,000 guests may dictate what happens.  With multiple of these ships in port places an enormous amount of pressure on local resources.  I think cruise line fleets will be diverse, so cruise lines can still get into ports that have limited access by physical limitations and/or by voters in their communities.          

 

The plan is to quit going to ports they don't own.

 

It's going to be:

 

1) Get on floating amusement park owned by cruise line

2) Get off floating amusement park and enter land amusement park owned by cruise line

3) Repeat.

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, Joebucks said:

I'm certain you're overconfident that this will overrun their other lines. Even if it becomes a problem, it's an excellent one to have. Too many customers are looking to purchase more expensive products. Who is having this problem and trying to get rid of it? Might there be growing pains? Sure. However, any loyalty program that gets people to spend more, has reached the intent of a loyalty program.

 

 

Marketing programs, e.g. loyalty programs, have a desired result which could include a target market.

 

As an example, MSC used to match Carnival Diamond to MSC Black, but no more. It dropped down to Gold. Why? Carnival "elite" whine about Faster to the Fun. Why?

 

If people have the resources to purchase a more expensive product and desire to, they will. No bribes required.

[elcuchio24]

19 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

I see things converging. Younger people need their kids to be entertained, and older people are going to need floating, affordable nursing homes. It makes sense to me to partition the behemoths by age.

 

Are young people today never going to age?

 

The need for smaller ships is never going to go away. Too many ports can't take, don't want large masses of people. We are seeing more push back these days.

 

 People will certainly age, but if in 25 years those people who loved the big ships when they were 40 suddenly going to hate them when they're 65? Maybe. Maybe I will too. But once you're used to certainly levels of amenities/activities I'd be more in line to think they'll be more apt to continue to cruise on the large ships.

 

Of course, the 'large ships' of today may be the small ships of tomorrow. THAT's what I'd expect more than anything. In 25 years I'll probably be complaining about how I dont want to go on the 400,000 ton new ships, and stay with the older 220,000 ton ships of yesteryear that I love...

[elcuchio24]

3 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Marketing programs, e.g. loyalty programs, have a desired result which could include a target market.

 

As an example, MSC used to match Carnival Diamond to MSC Black, but no more. It dropped down to Gold. Why? Carnival "elite" whine about Faster to the Fun. Why?

 

If people have the resources to purchase a more expensive product and desire to, they will. No bribes required.

 

I totally agree. Loyalty programs dont, and never have, been a factor in our cruise planning. 

[BlerkOne]

27 minutes ago, elcuchio24 said:

 

 People will certainly age, but if in 25 years those people who loved the big ships when they were 40 suddenly going to hate them when they're 65? Maybe. Maybe I will too. But once you're used to certainly levels of amenities/activities I'd be more in line to think they'll be more apt to continue to cruise on the large ships.

 

Of course, the 'large ships' of today may be the small ships of tomorrow. THAT's what I'd expect more than anything. In 25 years I'll probably be complaining about how I dont want to go on the 400,000 ton new ships, and stay with the older 220,000 ton ships of yesteryear that I love...

Anything is possible, but it is human nature to resist change and if you started on huge ships, you might have a tendency to stay with them.

[elcuchio24]

18 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Anything is possible, but it is human nature to resist change and if you started on huge ships, you might have a tendency to stay with them.

 

Well said. 

[Itried4498]

Smaller ships will continue to exist not because people and cruise lines want them (they don’t - people enjoy mega ships more, as do cruise lines since they have lower per person costs and more opportunities for revenue generation) - but because there are oodles of ports throughout the world that can’t handle mega ships.  
 

Not to mention, Europe has only a modest exposure to mega ships - and certainly not the latest and greatest - and there’s already backlash over the environmental impact they have.  Wouldn’t be surprising to see some European ports at the very least limit the number of calls these ships make. 

[DanJ]

9 hours ago, Joebucks said:

The Spirit class isn't going way. However, you can enjoy its layout all you want, it makes no sense to build another. The Conquest class can do almost anything the Spirit can, in most places. They will reposition those as newer ships take their place today.

  

 

 

Not like the Conquest class ships are new and modern compared to the Spirit class. Some of them are the same age and the newest Conquest is only a couple years younger than the newest Spirit. 

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, Itried4498 said:

Smaller ships will continue to exist not because people and cruise lines want them (they don’t - people enjoy mega ships more, as do cruise lines since they have lower per person costs and more opportunities for revenue generation) - but because there are oodles of ports throughout the world that can’t handle mega ships.  
 

Not to mention, Europe has only a modest exposure to mega ships - and certainly not the latest and greatest - and there’s already backlash over the environmental impact they have.  Wouldn’t be surprising to see some European ports at the very least limit the number of calls these ships make. 

It is obvious some people want smaller ships.

 

Not only are there environmental concerns, but many countries have a limit as to how many arrogant Americans they can tolerate.

 

Also, Americans can be fickle customers who cancel at the slightest hiccup, leaving cruise lines scrambling trying to fill ships at the last minute. It is one reason Carnival doesn't send larger ships to Europe.