Additional 150k ton newbuilds to be ordered for Carnival.

[DanJ]

6 hours ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

Because older cruise ships have to dry dock every three years, IIRC.  So this might be her last dry dock.  Otherwise, Carnival would want to keep her another three years after the next, through early 2031.

Even allowing a week either way travel time, 4 weeks is quite a bit longer a drydock than a standard drydock. That's renovation territory, not just inspect and repair. I just don't see the ship getting retired 3 years later after a more extensive drydock period. 

[jimbo5544]

3 hours ago, tidecat said:

Even with retiring Sunshine as the fourth Excel enters the fleet that still puts Carnival up about 2,300 lower berths.

 

If we go with FIFO through 2033, that still adds about 13,000 lower berths between 2027 and 2033 just on the five confirmed new builds. Counting he two pending Australian imports, Carnival Cruise Line's capacity is only 94,030 lower berths as of 2025. Swapping out the five oldest for five new builds between 2027-2033 still is an average of 2.2% growth annually for Carnival Cruise Line. Toss in the two 150k ton new builds and the average will be at least 3% even with retiring two more older vessels.

The amount if extra berths from pre covid is almost unbelievable 

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, DanJ said:

Even allowing a week either way travel time, 4 weeks is quite a bit longer a drydock than a standard drydock. That's renovation territory, not just inspect and repair. I just don't see the ship getting retired 3 years later after a more extensive drydock period. 

Actually, for a ship that is 30 years old, a 4 week dry dock for strictly technical reasons is not unusual.  They have to anticipate significant steel repairs, whether they happen or not, and the amount of tests and inspections of the hull increases with each 5 years of ship's age.

[jsglow]

So @chengkp75, at what point do one cross the threshold of 'it's more money than it's worth'? CCL dropped big money recently into Sunrise/Radiance. They obviously didn't do that to retire them 3-5 years later. (Not that anyone is suggesting that.) What I do know is that Windstar literally cut 3 ships in half in the last 3 years, added a new center section to make them slightly larger, and put them back into service, seemingly indefinitely. And those ships were built circa 1988-92. So in my mind it seems to come down to functional obsolescence more than physical. The Fantasy Class is obsolete for most applications. The Destiny Class is in many ways significantly more modern than the Conquests. Your thoughtful comments are always appreciated. 

[787cruiser]

1 hour ago, jsglow said:

They obviously didn't do that to retire them 3-5 years later.

That’s the point that there at now! By the time these vessels hit the 30yr mark the sunshine renovations will be 10+yrs 

[notscb]

3 hours ago, DanJ said:

I just don't see the ship getting retired 3 years later after a more extensive drydock period.

I certainly could. If a ship is going back into service 24/7 for the next three years after only a 4 week drydock, it very well could be it's last three years of revenue service. the investment of that 4 week period would easily be out shadowed by the continuous revenue service. It's amazing they are able to turn an older ship around in 4 weeks with the amount of inspection/repair/refurb that needs to happen.

Edited August 10 by notscb

[DanJ]

49 minutes ago, 787cruiser said:

That’s the point that there at now! By the time these vessels hit the 30yr mark the sunshine renovations will be 10+yrs 

I'm talking about the 6 week out of service period coming up 5 months from now, not the Destiny  to Sunshine conversion

Edited August 10 by DanJ

[tidecat]

1 hour ago, DanJ said:

I'm talking about the 6 week out of service period coming up 5 months from now, not the Destiny  to Sunshine conversion

The six week out of service period in 2025 is likely not anything beyond a routine dry dock and typical hotel maintenance with spot upgrades. The upcoming dry docks for Conquest, Dream, Elation, Freedom, Glory, Horizon, Liberty, Luminosa, Magic, Miracle, Pride, Spirit, Valor, and Venezia are also approximately six weeks each.

 

Curiously Splendor, in dry dock now, is one of the few scheduled to be out of service less than four weeks. Pride and Paradise are the others, while Panorama is scheduled for just over four weeks.

[chengkp75]

8 hours ago, jsglow said:

So @chengkp75, at what point do one cross the threshold of 'it's more money than it's worth'?

That depends on the cruise line's business model.  Why can smaller lines like Marella, or the now defunct Pulmantur, operate older tonnage long after the ships were retired from mainstream lines?  They have a different revenue/cost structure, and a different profit margin model.

 

What I can tell you is that the relationship between age and maintenance cost (and I am discounting hotel maintenance cost, as the hotel part of the ship is a short term asset, unlike the hull and machinery) is exponential, and it is known that at the 15 year mark, the curve makes the largest bend, and costs start to rise dramatically.  This is why ships are not allowed to bypass the mid-period dry docking (midway through the 5 year survey interval) for an underwater survey, at the 15 year mark in her age.

[jsglow]

3 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

That depends on the cruise line's business model.  Why can smaller lines like Marella, or the now defunct Pulmantur, operate older tonnage long after the ships were retired from mainstream lines?  They have a different revenue/cost structure, and a different profit margin model.

 

What I can tell you is that the relationship between age and maintenance cost (and I am discounting hotel maintenance cost, as the hotel part of the ship is a short term asset, unlike the hull and machinery) is exponential, and it is known that at the 15 year mark, the curve makes the largest bend, and costs start to rise dramatically.  This is why ships are not allowed to bypass the mid-period dry docking (midway through the 5 year survey interval) for an underwater survey, at the 15 year mark in her age.

Thank you so very much.

 

I wonder if the curve is steeper than one has on the family car? During the first 3 years of its life you've got literally nothing but oil changes and wiper blades. Then you move into brakes, hoses and tires; stuff I'd call routine maintenance. But eventually they get old and real stuff starts to break pretty regularly. I hate it when something breaks right before you plan to get rid of it.

[chengkp75]

54 minutes ago, jsglow said:

I wonder if the curve is steeper than one has on the family car?

Given the regulatory nature of the industry, I'd say yes.  The state does not require you to renew the body panels or the frame on your car when the thickness is reduced by rust by 10%, but that is what ships have to do.  At dry docks, they take ultrasonic thickness measurements at hundreds (sometimes thousands as the ship ages) of locations around the ship, and steel will need to be cut out and replaced if it is too thin.

[jsglow]

54 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Given the regulatory nature of the industry, I'd say yes.  The state does not require you to renew the body panels or the frame on your car when the thickness is reduced by rust by 10%......

Thank God for that. They would have forced me to give up my 2003 V-8 Ford Explorer tow vehicle years ago!

[vwwolfe]

I can see one of the new Excel classes coming to Long Beach to replace the Panorama.  The Firenze replacing the Spirit in Alaska for summers with the enclosed Lido.  The Panorama replacing the Firenze with 4 and 5 days.  

[DutchCruiseFan]

18 minutes ago, vwwolfe said:

I can see one of the new Excel classes coming to Long Beach to replace the Panorama.  The Firenze replacing the Spirit in Alaska for summers with the enclosed Lido.  The Panorama replacing the Firenze with 4 and 5 days.  

Really good suggestion aswell tbh. The competition there is getting more and more with Royal Caribbean expanding their LA offering to two ships year-round.

I think the problem is that Firenze doesn't take the Panama Canal so it would make it difficult to have a winter deployment in the Caribbean.

Perhaps she could have a winter deployment in San Diego!

[jsglow]

39 minutes ago, vwwolfe said:

I can see one of the new Excel classes coming to Long Beach to replace the Panorama.  The Firenze replacing the Spirit in Alaska for summers with the enclosed Lido.  The Panorama replacing the Firenze with 4 and 5 days.  

They better build a parking garage or it's gonna get rough around here!!!!!! 😎

[787cruiser]

38 minutes ago, vwwolfe said:

I can see one of the new Excel classes coming to Long Beach to replace the Panorama.  The Firenze replacing the Spirit in Alaska for summers with the enclosed Lido.  The Panorama replacing the Firenze with 4 and 5 days.  

It’s been discussed at length already and the thought is it’s highly unlikely for a couple of reasons. Long Beach cant handle LNG yet from my understanding and with the current direction the industry is moving with keeping as much money in house is highly likely the 2 Excels with go to Miami and PC to have have excel ships on short cruises to celebration key.

Maybe once the mega class comes online Long Beach will be ready for an excel. 

[787cruiser]

46 minutes ago, vwwolfe said:

Firenze replacing the Spirit in Alaska for summers

I think it’s more likely Firenze will replace Luminosa to free her up so that Spirit class ships can replace Elation and Paradise year round.

[vwwolfe]

4 minutes ago, 787cruiser said:

I think it’s more likely Firenze will replace Luminosa to free her up so that Spirit class ships can replace Elation and Paradise year round.

Yeah, you're probably right.  Firenze would then do Alaska in the summer and Australia in the winter.  

[tidecat]

It might very well be possible that one of the 150k ton ships goes to Sydney outright to replace Pacific/Carnival Adventure. She was built in 2001 and her most recent drydock was in April 2024. A ship delivered between 2030-2033 capable of fitting under the Sydney Harbour Bridge (39 meters/161 feet of clearance) would add capacity to the Sydney market while allowing Adventure to be retired.

[787cruiser]

1 hour ago, tidecat said:

 

It might very well be possible that one of the 150k ton ships goes to Sydney outright to replace Pacific/Carnival Adventure

 

I agree this is definitely possible. Carnival Corp has quite a few ships that will be hitting the 30yr mark in the next decade, I think that’s why we’re getting all these ship orders (and options) to secure the build slots from the ship builders. I also think it’s almost a guarantee that we’ll see the options on the 150s exercised with further orders of 150evos further down the line.

Edited August 10 by 787cruiser

[dolphinsfan246]

I hate to throw a wrench in all the speculation, but don’t be surprised when this order comes out and it initially goes 4 (AIDA) + 2 (P&O) with 2 options to be executed later. The options are saved for Costa as they are still evaluating the future for this brand. 

[notscb]

I'm excited to see Carnival (even if it is rumor) considering how they are going to replace some of their more aging fleet. It's clear they are onto something with the Excel class, but the Excel class clearly isn't going to replace the entire fleet and Carnival needs to do something to differentiate from Royal's Icon class and tendency toward mega-ship cruising.

[CruiseAdict218]

29 minutes ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

I hate to throw a wrench in all the speculation, but don’t be surprised when this order comes out and it initially goes 4 (AIDA) + 2 (P&O) with 2 options to be executed later. The options are saved for Costa as they are still evaluating the future for this brand. 

Is there anything pointing to P&O getting two ships? Only Aurora would be up for retirement, Arcadia would have another 5 years left. 
 

I also wouldn’t expect Costa to go anywhere at this point, unless something drastic happened. 

[jimbo5544]

42 minutes ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

I hate to throw a wrench in all the speculation, but don’t be surprised when this order comes out and it initially goes 4 (AIDA) + 2 (P&O) with 2 options to be executed later. The options are saved for Costa as they are still evaluating the future for this brand. 

I would take that bet.  Totally cuts across the grain.  CCL reigns king in Carnival Corp.  Nothing is going to change that.  

[jimbo5544]

10 minutes ago, CruiseAdict218 said:

Is there anything pointing to P&O getting two ships? Only Aurora would be up for retirement, Arcadia would have another 5 years left. 
 

I also wouldn’t expect Costa to go anywhere at this point, unless something drastic happened. 

They will not abandon the market.  But I can tell you with certainty, one of these new builds will not be going there.