RCCI enjoys huge profits

[wolfcathorse]

Profit??? Let me think... bill for Smith settlement, bill for divers cutting off Navigator's stabilizer, bill for part shipped to Navigator, repair bill for Navigator, dry dock, dry dock, dry docks, passengers on Navigator demanding compensation, captains quitting, promotions, oh and you can bet Goldstein and Fain get their bonuses

[isujim]

Same thing was said ten years ago when the Voyager came out. The ships were too big. No one will want to cruise on them and on and on. Proved the nay sayers wrong. They will prove them wrong again.

 

I truly hope you are right Gordon..........but I would still be a little nervous if I was any cruiseline right now. I think they probably will fill them......with many first time cruisers.

[Cruising89143]

I truly hope you are right Gordon..........but I would still be a little nervous if I was any cruiseline right now. I think they probably will fill them......with many first time cruisers.

 

Jim, that is exactly who RCI is going after. Customers who would have never thought of cruising as a vacation. That is how they continue to fill those ships week after week. It's not just the repeat guests who fill the ships.

 

Also let's not forget how popular cruising has become in Europe. I posted an article yesterday from Seatrader. Europe is up almost 50% in cruise passengers since 2003. RCI is taking advantage of that by moving more ships each year to that region. So are other lines. They are going to do what it takes to keep the ships full. Judging by next years prices, they are not worried at the moment about filling ships but as you say, time will tell but RCI will also be moving some of the older tonnage out of the fleet over to Pullmantur as new ships enter service.

 

Time will tell what happens with fuel and airline prices and what affect it will have on the cruise/travel industry. I am heading to Disney in a week for four nights. We are staying on site and Disney is not hurting at all at the moment with what they are charging for hotel rates. The resorts are packed. Maybe it's too early to tell.

 

I personally would never buy any cruise line stock as a major investment. It's good for a hundred shares to get the OBC and that's about it.

[yogimax]

Same thing was said ten years ago when the Voyager came out. The ships were too big. No one will want to cruise on them and on and on. Proved the nay sayers wrong. They will prove them wrong again.

 

Hope you are right, but it's a matter of supply and demand.

 

Supply is increasing dramatically.

 

Demand will wane with the increased costs of air travel and cruise fares.

 

Not a good future for the cruise industry.

[isujim]

Good point Gordon on Europe..........that is definetly where the market is and I don't blame them for moving ships over.........that is business.

 

We saw some first time things on our recently completed back to back.....blue jeans in the dining room (and on formal night no less)....shorts in the dining room on casual nights.......and let me say it didn't ruin my cruise........I'm too old to let anybody else ruin anything for me at my age.......LOL...but nobody was enforcing any semblance of a dress code that I could see........when you fill the ships.......you have to take what you get........for better or worse, depending on ones opinion.

 

But times are changing.........I've never sailed on Carnival like you have so I would never say a word good or bad about Carnival.......but sometimes during that two week b2b I wondered what ship I was on;)

 

And like you..........I agree 100% I would NEVER buy cruiseline stock.

 

By the way........on NBC nightly news tonight.........there was a story I was hearing about the companies expected to reap a benefit from the stimulus checks getting ready to go out.......Wal mart, Home Depot, Safeway.......there were about 8 they listed........the last one......I swear this is true........was Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines.......I backed it up to make sure I heard right........not Carnival, Princess, HAL........but Royal Caribbean Cruise Line.........what that means I have no idea, but thought why that line and not others.........:)

 

We have booked the Pacific Princess for 2009........only 694 passengers........we may be bored to death but it is something we decided we have to try.........heck this ship is just about the same size as the Nordic Prince our first cruise........but we'll be back to RC........unless they just turn party, party, party.

[negc]

The problems are:

 

1. The price of oil - affecting air travel and cruise costs

 

2. Competition

 

3. Over-Capacity

 

Think of the discounting RCCL will have to do to fill their Genesis class ships. At first, people will book them because of the novelty affect. That might last for a year or two. At the same time, however, Freedom and Voyager Class ships will have to be discounted since folks will be booking the "newest". Give it two or three years and RCCL will have to severely discount their Freedom, Voyager and Genesis products.

 

Sorry, but I just don't see a rosy future for any of the cruise lines.

Your assessment is considerably more gloomy than mine. While I agree with you that the price of fuel continues to be a matter of concern, I don't believe that it has yet reached the point where cruisers will willingly forego cruise vacations. Certainly their most recent reports indicate that bookings are stronger this year than they were a year ago.

As long as they are bringing out bigger and newer ships that will attract new cruisers as well as veterans interested to see the biggest and newest, they will probably continue to do well vis a vis the competition, and their latest reports are showing that their ships are still sailing at better than 100% capacity.

Even as they bring on these bigger ships, they are reassigning some of their older vessels to their other lines, so the increased capacity may not be quite as great as it first appears, and their deployment to various parts of the world gives them marketing opportunities that should allow them to maintain their profitability. I'm not saying that everything is coming up roses for Royal Caribbean or any of their competitors, but I'm not ready to write their obituaries either.:rolleyes:

We have been reading predictions of doom and gloom and fantastic price discounts for several years now, but somehow, the prices seem to be maintaining their level and, if you read reports about their newest schedule releases, the overriding theme seems to be how high the initial prices are and how infrequently any subsequent savings are being noted. :)

[Cruising89143]

Good point Gordon on Europe..........that is definetly where the market is and I don't blame them for moving ships over.........that is business.

 

We saw some first time things on our recently completed back to back.....blue jeans in the dining room (and on formal night no less)....shorts in the dining room on casual nights.......and let me say it didn't ruin my cruise........I'm too old to let anybody else ruin anything for me at my age.......LOL...but nobody was enforcing any semblance of a dress code that I could see........when you fill the ships.......you have to take what you get........for better or worse, depending on ones opinion.

 

But times are changing.........I've never sailed on Carnival like you have so I would never say a word good or bad about Carnival.......but sometimes during that two week b2b I wondered what ship I was on;)

 

And like you..........I agree 100% I would NEVER buy cruiseline stock.

 

By the way........on NBC nightly news tonight.........there was a story I was hearing about the companies expected to reap a benefit from the stimulus checks getting ready to go out.......Wal mart, Home Depot, Safeway.......there were about 8 they listed........the last one......I swear this is true........was Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines.......I backed it up to make sure I heard right........not Carnival, Princess, HAL........but Royal Caribbean Cruise Line.........what that means I have no idea, but thought why that line and not others.........:)

 

We have booked the Pacific Princess for 2009........only 694 passengers........we may be bored to death but it is something we decided we have to try.........heck this ship is just about the same size as the Nordic Prince our first cruise........but we'll be back to RC........unless they just turn party, party, party.

 

Jim, I know that many folks get upset over what others wear in the dining room but IMHO the days of the dining room being a formal atmosphere on a mass market line is over. It's just not going to happen. Cruise lines like RCI, Carnival and NCL are pushing a more casual on board atmosphere in attracting more first time cruisers. It's just something that the seasoned RCI guests are going to have to get used to or find another line. Of course I can tell you that after cruising on HAL, they are not the line that they want everyone to think they are. They are slightly a step up in the quality of food but IMHO that is where it ends. The service was not any better than what I have received on RCI and the decor of the ship left a lot to be desired.

 

Maybe NBC has been reading Cruise Critic and what folks are going to do with their checks.:)

[isujim]

I think the biggest difference this time Bill from say even 8 years ago is the downturn in the economy. No cruiseline can predict that no more than we can predict the stock market or next years weather.

 

But surely no one can argue basic prices whether gasoline, food, health care etc has risen dramatically in the last 12 to 24 months.

 

To me that is the biggest unknown factor for any cruiseline......The Economy........ and the affect it will have on discretionary dollars, especially if those discretionary dollars continue to buy less. I would consider a vacation discretionary, although I can see where others might argue they are indeed necessary.

 

Yes new cruisers will fill the bill but I think many seasoned cruisers, especially those maybe on fixed income or investments will look elsewhere.....those with kids in college or 4 kids at home might look elsewhere.........then again, they might not.

 

I just doubt anyone at RC or Carnival or HAL predicted the economy, price of oil and a gallon of gas to be where it is at......10 years ago. I know I wouldn't have.

[isujim]

Jim, I know that many folks get upset over what others wear in the dining room but IMHO the days of the dining room being a formal atmosphere on a mass market line is over. It's just not going to happen. Cruise lines like RCI, Carnival and NCL are pushing a more casual on board atmosphere in attracting more first time cruisers. It's just something that the seasoned RCI guests are going to have to get used to or find another line. Of course I can tell you that after cruising on HAL, they are not the line that they want everyone to think they are. They are slightly a step up in the quality of food but IMHO that is where it ends. The service was not any better than what I have received on RCI and the decor of the ship left a lot to be desired.

 

Maybe NBC has been reading Cruise Critic and what folks are going to do with their checks.:)

 

Couldn't agree more which is why my New Years resolution was to NOT get involved in a dress code thread:) and I really didn't think twice about it.........other than there was definetly a "different" atmosphere on this last RC cruise and I still can't quite explain it or put my finger on it. I'm not even saying it was bad........just different. As to whether seasoned RC guess can get used to it............they better........the times are a changing......I just hope 12 months from now I don't see (ok no screen names) post about how 90% of the men wear tuxes or I might have to break my New Years Resolution.......:D

[Cruising89143]

I think the biggest difference this time Bill from say even 8 years ago is the downturn in the economy. No cruiseline can predict that no more than we can predict the stock market or next years weather.

 

But surely no one can argue basic prices whether gasoline, food, health care etc has risen dramatically in the last 12 to 24 months.

 

To me that is the biggest unknown factor for any cruiseline......The Economy........ and the affect it will have on discretionary dollars, especially if those discretionary dollars continue to buy less. I would consider a vacation discretionary, although I can see where others might argue they are indeed necessary.

 

Yes new cruisers will fill the bill but I think many seasoned cruisers, especially those maybe on fixed income or investments will look elsewhere.....those with kids in college or 4 kids at home might look elsewhere.........then again, they might not.

 

I just doubt anyone at RC or Carnival or HAL predicted the economy, price of oil and a gallon of gas to be where it is at......10 years ago. I know I wouldn't have.

 

I read today that some car dealerships are not taking those big SUV's as trade ins. Don't want them and I can't blame them. I'm glad that when I purchased my car last year, I bought a car that got good gas mileage. I wish now that I had purchased one of the hybrids.

[Cruising89143]

.I just hope 12 months from now I don't see (ok no screen names) post about how 90% of the men wear tuxes or I might have to break my New Years Resolution.......:D

 

LMAO!!!!!:D

[isujim]

I read today that some car dealerships are not taking those big SUV's as trade ins. Don't want them and I can't blame them. I'm glad that when I purchased my car last year, I bought a car that got good gas mileage. I wish now that I had purchased one of the hybrids.

 

 

oooohhhhhh I hadn't thought about the SUVS..........I too wish I had purchased a hybrid but settled for an Escape:)

 

Off to watch John Adams part 5, 6 and 7 (HBO on demand)

 

When you are on a b2b it's heck to board the ship in the middle of a mini series on HBO.........:D

 

But I have a feeling this thread will continue tomorrow:rolleyes:

[Gon2hwe]

So now could they please put coffee pots in the cabins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[MoreCruisesNow]

The fact remains that on an inflation-adjusted dollar basis cruising is the best vacation bargain around.

 

When Motel 6 was founded thirty years ago, they may not have figured to be Motel 55.75 today.

 

However, cruising is actually less expensive than it was thirty years ago, and certainly the most affordable "luxury" around.

 

As for the air issue, every US port is clamoring for more cruise ships to visit - some VAST porportion of the US population is within a day's drive of a seaport.

 

I still say the future is bright!

[TEXASMUNK]

Wolfcathouse's comments aobut senior managment. Yup they got their bonuses and I am glad they did!!!!

 

I am so fed up with the evil corporate mentality!!!!!!!!!!

 

Profits, new ships, expanded lines....all a result of quality management!

 

I note he is from Michigan...the worst state in the nation in which to try and get a job....also one of the worst managed states...politically. One of the most taxed. They translate all their own woes into the fault of management.

 

Everyone is talking like we are entering the end of the world cycle. Get your representatives in Washington to get off their political agenda and drill in Anwar and build refinaries and this "crisis" will end!!!!!

 

But no, let's protect the carabou (who happen to love the Alaska pipeline because it is warm in the winter) and let the dumb Americans blame the evil corporations instead of doing our jobs and getting oil prices DOWN. As for me, Richard Fain, kudos, job well done!

[negc]

You are absolutely correct that few, if any, could have predicted that fuel prices would reach the levels that they have and few are willing to predict when prices will stabilize or decrease. Still there are a large number of people who, regardless of their financial situation, believe that a vacation is one of their basic rights and will find a way to take that vacation regardless of any other factors. I'm not saying that the cruise industry is recession-proof, but I believe that they will weather this situation as well as, if not better than, other sectors of the travel industry. :)

[yogimax]

 

I'm not saying that the cruise industry is recession-proof, but I believe that they will weather this situation as well as, if not better than, other sectors of the travel industry. :)

 

It's interesting that many believed the gaming industry was recession proof, but that has proven to be incorrect. Check the price declines for IGT, PNK, TRMP, BYD and others.

 

Let me say that we are dedicated cruisers and, hopefully, always will be, BUT whether RCL or CCL are good long term investments is a totally different question.

[abridalmaven]

It is a buisness, NOT a needed service. It's job is to make profit for the shareholders! If you dont like to pay the surcharge put on by rccl, maybe you could try a line with out one.:p Again, it is a profitable buisness, not a non profit orginization.

 

EVERYTHING has gone up in price. (Airfare, foods, clothing,) due to inflation and obviously the gas prices

 

If the Cruise lines wern't making money, how are they supposed to pay for newer larger ships?

I could not have said it better. Are businesses supposed to lose money to make you and I happy? Get real, no profit, no business:rolleyes:

[2bFREEonTHEseas]

what we need is the Loveboat III with Captain Johnny as the star, Richard Spacey as CD, Sudi as the barman - yeah thats the ticket

 

Whoever said this in this posting should talk to RCCL...this could actually be the best idea I have heard on a marketing topic in a long time. I know the travel channel does cruise ship shows which I believe are payed for by RCCL in some part....but to actually have a series on a real cruise ship with real passengers and every week is a new show...I bet cruisers would be lined up for miles trying to book that cruise knowing that they would have a chance to get on TV...That would be awesome....I guess the only thing close to that is a job on the Northwestern catching crabs in Alaska!!!

[Trainman-2]

Everyone seems to want something for nothing!

[hermang]

Don't you think the percentage will likely stay the same or drop somewhat in the next couple of years with airfare becoming expensive, cruise prices going up, fuel surcharges on both airfares and cruises, and people on average having less discretionary income? I think in the next couple of years people will start vacationing closer to home more frequently than in the recent past. Places like bed & breakfasts will likely benefit whereas cruise lines will be hurt.

When the LoveBoat premiered there was a huge spike in people cruising for the first time. When the LoveBoat II or what ever it was called - another spike. People like the Travel Channel "Great Cruises" and Samantha Brown have done wonders for the industry. In answer to the question about will the percentage stay the same - I was referring to a population that has cruised at least once.

 

I live in CT so there is a lot of interest in cruising from Bayonne NJ - or New York - no airfare no luggage issues etc. My daughter took her first cruise last year - RCCL picked them up in Hartford on a bus and took them to NJ for the Explorer. Very convenient.

 

But here is my take - Just came off a 6 night on Radiance ( February). Cost for a Superior Balcony (D1) was believe it or not a total of $1127 for 2 people tax and port charges included. I got to use my airline miles for a free flight and ff miles for a hotel. So all tolled - not counting shore excursions and misc purchases - we spent less than 200 / night including food room and entertainment. Kind of hard to beat.

 

I have a TA booked next november 14 nights on Equinox - $1170pp Balcony cabin. We saw on the Travel channel a family of 4 at Disney world - 4 days and 3 nights will spend a minimum of $2000 - want a parkhopper thats more - so I think cruising is still the cheapest form of vacation and we have hooked several friends on cruising as a vacation

[hermang]

And the loss might be larger next month!

 

At some point the "paper loss" has to be paid for.

 

Bought stock in the company I worked for (IPO) thought I was going to do well or so the company president said - Bought at 12 went to 18 and like an idiot I held it. Company tanked and stock at the time I sold it was 18 cents. DUMB DUMB DUMB

 

Second story - bought stock in Oxford health plan because my son in law worked there and told me how bright the future was - ( Must have drunk lots of company cool-aid. Bought it at 25 went to 85 thought it would split and I would sell half. Then word came out that the CEO was cooking the books and stock dropped to 9. Decided to sit - 3 yrs later it was 35 and I bailed very quickly. Had I sold at 9 it would have been a huge loss but my dad always taught me to buy and hold - what goes down often goes back up and then some

[isujim]

You are absolutely correct that few, if any, could have predicted that fuel prices would reach the levels that they have and few are willing to predict when prices will stabilize or decrease. Still there are a large number of people who, regardless of their financial situation, believe that a vacation is one of their basic rights and will find a way to take that vacation regardless of any other factors. I'm not saying that the cruise industry is recession-proof, but I believe that they will weather this situation as well as, if not better than, other sectors of the travel industry. :)

 

You know It just isn't fuel prices.........you go back to when the Voyager was built we were coming off one of the greatest bull market periods ever.....not so today........and to me that is the difference. A vacation isn't a basic right if your cash is gone and credit card maxed out......I'm not talking about an $8 fuel surcharge and $4 a gallon gas at the pump as the reason things might get a little tight.........you wouldn't believe what my hospitalization costs are........just since 2006.........ok enough said.....I'm just saying if things get worse.......they better find a way to fill those ships........:)