How long before the economy takes its toll?

[chasetf]

How far away is a Depression?.......

The definition......A Recession is when your neighbor loses their job. A Depression is when you lose yours. ;)

[hammybee]

How long will it take before the economy takes its toll on cruising?

 

You can't have it both ways: what will you chose? Heating your home, being able to fill up the gas station, buying groceries or taking a cruise?

 

Will the economy finally, and at long last, wake up Seattle to the reality that less is not better, cutbacks will not attract passengers in this economy to tolerate an inferior product at increased prices and most importantly, tradition still matters

 

What do you think?

 

Maybe the recession will force HAL to do what it should have done all along

 

The cost of most HAL sails, in most cabin classes, continues to be less than what most of us used to pay. And despite this, cruising probably represents a greater percentage of most passengers' discretionary incomes, than it ever has.

 

Cruise lines do not set their prices and survive. The market ( consumers) determine the fair market value of a cabin/intinerary/service level when they book, or not.

 

Consumers cannot have it both way, cheap cruises and a premium product. Something always has to give.

 

Under the circumstances, I am not sure what HAL "should have done, all along". If it had continued in the late 80's, on the course it was on, it would have folded almost 20 years ago. Is that what HAL should have done, just another great cruise line who refused to change and then gave up the ghost?

[iancal]

The critical revenue numbers to a cruise line, after occupancy, is revenue per passenger day. Cruise fare is one thing, on board passenger spending is the variant that is producing the highest gross margin. It would be very interesting to look at the trends to see what is happening to revenue per passenger day in the key areas of bar, excursion, bingo, auction and cruise line share of casino and retail sales. Would also be interesting to see what is going on with the optional pay restaurant options. I suspect that revenue/profit decreases in these areas will be a significant hit to the bottom line after a low vacancy/cruise air/pre&post cruise rate. Having said that we have been watching for bargains on 7 day cruises from Italy as we will be there for a month in September. Nothing good is showing up yet.

[hammybee]

Oh my stars, it's all going to come down to the Art Auctions, the most significant onboard revenue generator of all :eek:

[hammybee]

 

Having said that we have been watching for bargains on 7 day cruises from Italy as we will be there for a month in September. Nothing good is showing up yet.

 

You don't have too many choices for a 7 day sail from Italy. It's Costa and MSC.

 

The 9/24 Noordam 10 day from Rome looks good to me.

[PennyAgain]

We are shopping harder to find the best price for cruises, comparing one company to another but also making sure that the airfare won't knock us flat.

 

We are booking less expensive rooms on the ships we want.

 

We are buying fewer tours.

 

We are buying less expensive wine.

 

We aren't buying new clothes for travel.

 

We had planned to do a Crystal cruise for a major anniversary, but that plan is out of the window.

 

We try to arrange cruises for times when I have a work related trip to the area so at least my air fare is paid for.

 

We no longer treat family members to vacations.

[iancal]

Yes, we have been watching the Costa and MSC prices. No movement. But, we are also looking at MSC from Fort Lauderdale next year. We want to try either Oceana or MSC whichever one proves the best value/itinerary.

[sail7seas]

posted by U4ea

S7S, would you considered a more upscale cruise line if HAL continues the mainstream trend of cutbacks?

 

 

 

No, Mark. We would stop cruising if HAL diminishes the product so that we no longer recognize it. We only with to sail HAL and if we don't sail HAL, we will not sail. We love the crews of HAL and the HAL ships. We have been with this company on far too many cruises to want to cruise elsewhere. We know we would be a fish out of water, so to speak, and are smart enough to know it is only HAL for us.

 

HAL has been in business for a great many years with a grand Dutch tradition. It always set them apart from all the rest and to not continue presenting that fine tradition is every HAL cruisers' loss IMO

 

HAL certainly touts the sparkling cleanliness of the Dutch ships, uses the colorful images of windmills and tulips in their advertising and brochures when it will enhance those aspects of their business but to lose the real Dutch influence on the ship seems a bad choice IMO We recall when a lovely stewardess would dress in Dutch garb on Dutch Night and pass trays of Edam and Gouda cheese cubes in the lounges before dinner. It was a lovely tradition and we all enjoyed it immensely. We remember when they actually had a fun Dutch Night each cruise. When they sold Dutch cheese in the shops.

 

I remember when there were beautiful warming carts set up the Lounges to keep hot hors d'ouerves warmed for serving with our drinks. It was a delightful touch for a steward to prepare and serve each guest a nice plate of nibbles at the tables and at the bar. We looked forward to what 'goodies' Chef had prepared for us each evening.

 

Flowers used to be present in the rest rooms, throughout the public rooms. Huge arrangements outside Ocean Bar and both sides of the dining room doors, each level. Beautiful, fresh flowers have always been a signature of HAL. Each cruise we see fewer. We still have nice little arrangements in our Suite but they are not at all like we used to enjoy.

Ship's Hostess was a nicety that HAL always presented. She never lacked for folks who wanted a tour of the ship's art, napkin folding, scarf tying lessons etc...... No more Hostess.

 

I think I've made my point. I could go on for a good deal longer about things we miss.

 

That is NOT to say we don't still love HAL, we do. But if we start to experience a homogenous Carnival Family of ships where we can't tell Princess, from Carnival, from Costa from HAL....... we will, with tears, sadly know our cruising years have ended.

I acknowledge any business needs to count the pennies but some of the things we have seen removed did not involve huge expenditures. Not everyone who sails HAL demands a bare bones, lower than low fare. Charge us a 'fair fare' and give us a cruise that distinguishes HAL from all others. To date, I feel they still do but the edge grows closer.

 

In truth, the most important feature of our HAL cruises will always be the crews. It is for the people we return to HAL again and again.

 

You asked a short question but got a way too long response. Sorry.

[PennyAgain]

The first trip I made on a HAL ship was in the early 1970's when I traveled on the old and tiny (by today's standards) Veendam. Dutch company, Dutch ship!

 

I'm thinking that Veendam was about 32,000 tons.

 

I was going home to Alaska and needed an inexpensive ticket. Got one! Even at that with a tiny inside room that didn't even have elevator service to that deck, the service was great as was the food. Each passenger got a little gift from the Captain. That trip it was a tiny pair of Dutch shoes in blue and white china. I still have them.

 

I've had a soft spot in my heart for HAL ever since and have made many trips on HAL ships of various sizes.

 

I hope there aren't many more changes.

[Taxguy77]

We have cruised NCL inside (a "friend" booked it) and a President's Cruise on the Royal Clipper as well as many in between. We will NOT book the lowest price, nor will we book a suite, but if we don't get good service we won't sail that cruise line again.

[u4ea]

S7S, that all makes sense, thanks for the reply. Believe me, I understand the ‘style’, I love it too.:) If worse comes to worse, maybe we can poll our money and buy the Maasdam and her crew, we’ll all move aboard and live happily ever after.:eek:;)

Mark…

[Destin Mom]

Very interesting posts all the way through. Technically, as many have pointed out, GDP is still postive (barely) and we will not be in a technical recession unless GDP becomes negative. Not sure if anyone saw Warren Buffet speak on CNBC before the latest economic data came out, but he thinks we are/ will be in a recession. I am no economic expert but think he knows a whole lot more than I ever will. IMHO this will absolutely impact vacation spending in the near term. We own higher end beach rental homes and for the first time in four years, we have seen cancellations during our peak season. We have been able to fill the cancellations, but this is not normal for us.

 

As to HAL, we are new to cruising and don't have the perspective of so many of the veterans. We weren't looking for rock bottom pricing. The itinerary, food/ wine, room size and children's programs were our biggest deciding factors, certainly price played a part in our decision. If HAL turns out to be less than expected, we would consider another line that could better meet our service expectations. As to cutbacks on HAL...if you work in a financial capacity in any company in this country, I suspect you are no stranger to cost cutting measures. It happens. Look at cruise pricing vs. gas, food, steel, wages, etc. I'm not making excuses for the cruise lines (firmly believe that if you market yourself higher end or premium, you need to bring that level of service) but I understand that cost structures force most businesses to adapt their models to current demands and price points. If you adjust your price for inflation, how does your current fare compare to where it was when the service was superior? (I would argue that straight CPI dilutes the true inflationnary effects on cruise lines since their cost structures are more closely tied to fuel, food and wages- all of which have risen significantly).

 

Lastly...we live in a coastal resort community that has been significantly impacted by the recent downturns in real estate. Most of our friends continue to travel well but have slowed down spending in other areas. Our wealthier friends have not changed their spending or traveling habits at all. Completely agree with the posts that those who were saving up all year to cruise may not be able to do so in the current economy. However, economic cycles are typically 7 years in duration from peak to trough so this is not the end of the world. The economy will come back, and people will be able to vacation again in the future. For anyone who has ever been fortunate enough to cruise, I would consider us all very lucky. If we don't like our experience or have a set critieria for choosing a line, we have a buffet of choices at multiple price points with different bells and whistles. Personally, I can't wait for our cruise and I know we'll have a great time regardless. Whether or not we sail HAL again will depend on quality of food and service...but we've already booked a 2009 cruise so I'm hoping it is all that we expect. But truly, we are blessed to be there in the first place.

[TCF]

That is the point....there is nothing mysterious about how a cruise line makes a profit.

The cabin fare has to pay for food, fuel, passenger service, and administrative costs exclusively...the per diem costs of running the ship. The profit comes from a great number of other streams....the company's cut of photos, casino revenue, excursions, onboard shops, upscale restaurants and a number of other streams. In order to maximize profit they have to maximize cabin occupancy rates.

I may be wrong on this point, but it appears to me that HAL is not having any trouble selling out the higher cost cabins and suites on most of its itineraries...but some of the insides appear that they may be sailing empty!??!

[world~citizen]

In truth, the most important feature of our HAL cruises will always be the crews. It is for the people we return to HAL again and again.

 

 

Sometimes I think the crew actually gets better every time we sail!

[royalcruz]

Cruising is still a great value vacation, so I think that bookings will remain high domestically, but passengers may spend less on board.

 

Due to the real estate and mortgage market problems in our area, we have experienced a drop in income, but we are still cruising. We have decided to accept an inside cabin for cruises of less than a week, and we have stopped sailing on Celebrity because they have priced themselves out of competitive pricing.

[sail7seas]

I heartily agree, world~citizen. HAL crews are the best of the best.

 

And, TCF....... I also agree with you. Seeing as we want "S" suites when we cruise, we have to book our cruises early in order to get the cabins we want. The Suites seem to sell out just about before any other category.

 

[mariner]

Sea King,

 

It started taking its toll.

 

People that could never afford suites are grabbing them. But the value has been devalued.

 

Really begs the question: How sweet is my suite?

[PathfinderEss]

fair question

 

so lets get to the point

 

IMHO, inferior means less than existed before

 

HAL today is not the HAL of 5 years ago .. there are fewer dining room stewards, fewer menu selections, fewer hot appetizers before dinner, fewer flowers .. and, let's not forget elimination of the captain's Welcome Aboard Party and elimination of the traditional Mariners Society Party

 

what's really interesting though is this: mediocrity now seems to be the theme for the "Carnival Family of Ships" .. instead of letting HAL be HAL, Costa be Costa, Princess be Princess, Cunard be Cunard and Carnival be Carnival to name a few, the "heads" now think tossing everything into a salad bowl is far better than than letting each cruise line keep and improve upon what made it the product that it was

 

in a nutshell, today's HAL is inferior to what it was 5 years ago

 

if HAL is to continue to exist (let alone thrive in this economic state), it's time Seattle figured out one simple truth: now is not the time to cut back .. it is the time to at least maintain the status quo

Thanks for the reply Sea King, I do understand what you are saying and know that it is your opinion but I don't totally agree with you. Like Lisa, we are faily new to Hal ourselves, compared to some. I think we've been cruising with them for some 13 years now. We actually have seen a lot of things go up in quality. Bedding for one, food quality for another, the Neptune louge, the internet cafe, etc.. I will give you the fact that there are fewer dinning room stewarts in the dinning room but don't agree about the hot appetizers. I don't remember the Welcome aboad parties, probably because I'm doing my own thing at the local bars. Yes, I will agree there have been some changes over the years with Hal, some bad, some good but I still think over all it has gotten better in the years we have been sailing with them.

We can all only hope as the economy in the US is shaky at best for now, that Hal does not do any changing of the product we have now.

[Destin Mom]

Mariner- please expand. At what price point do you feel the suite is being devalued? Why would you book a suite on Holland vs Regent? If (as was the case with our specific sailing), the SA suites are over $1K per night, is this considered a devalued experience? We have no prior HAL experience so have no point for comparison other than comparing pricing on HAL to the true luxury liners. HAL pricing seems to have a ceiling at the floor of the luxury liners (many of which appear to be all suite, all inclusive set ups). Again, I have very limited experience so am interested in hearing from the pros. Thanks

[mariner]

Destin,

 

 

Onboard expenses added together it's a saving, from my bill.

[hammybee]

Mariner- please expand. At what price point do you feel the suite is being devalued? Why would you book a suite on Holland vs Regent? If (as was the case with our specific sailing), the SA suites are over $1K per night, is this considered a devalued experience? We have no prior HAL experience so have no point for comparison other than comparing pricing on HAL to the true luxury liners. HAL pricing seems to have a ceiling at the floor of the luxury liners (many of which appear to be all suite, all inclusive set ups). Again, I have very limited experience so am interested in hearing from the pros. Thanks

 

I am not Mariner, but might be of help.

Regent includes alcohol and gratuities in their base price.

 

Making a broad comparison, a Deluxe Suite on HAL is going to be larger and as well appointed as the entry-mid level on Regent.

 

The median price of a cabin on Regent is substantially greater than it is on HAL. The spread between the least and most expensive cabins on Regent are not as great as they are on HAL.

 

The most significant differences are apt to be your out of cabin experience and fellow passengers.While Regent is reaching out to families, the experience is apt to be predominately adult oriented, with few children onboard.

 

All dining is open seating and on most intineraries, there are no formal nights.

 

That's just fine with the majority of Regent passengers according to the Regent board.

 

If you are inclined to have a significant bar bill, hands down, Regent might be a better value.

[hammybee]

 

We actually have seen a lot of things go up in quality. Bedding for one, food quality for another, the Neptune louge, the internet cafe, etc.. I will give you the fact that there are fewer dinning room stewarts in the dinning room but don't agree about the hot appetizers. I don't remember the Welcome aboad parties, probably because I'm doing my own thing at the local bars. Yes, I will agree there have been some changes over the years with Hal, some bad, some good but I still think over all it has gotten better in the years we have been sailing with them.

 

I'm with you on this. The in cabin experience is substantially better than it once was. The cabins are better appointed than they used to be.

 

So much of what some passengers refer to as nickle and diming is nothing more than paying for something that either was previously unavailable ( such as internet) and/or is of better quality than it once was ( such as coffee).

[kryos]

With all due respect to everyone reading and not insult meant to any but the fact of the matter is that people who can barely pay their grocery bill, will not be able to pay for cruises.

Believe me, don't let anyone kid you ... bookings are off and cancellations are way up. Granted, that is primarily in the family market ... but it goes to show that the economy is hurting some people. I used to get virtually unlimited overtime. It paid for my cruises. Now my overtime is very limited, I haven't gotten a raise in about three years, and probably won't get one for another three years. Needless to say, I've had to tighten my belt.

 

It's really nice for those folks who are not affected by high gas prices, food prices, rising utility costs, etc. But the sad fact is that some of us are ... a lot of us, in fact.

 

So I think the cruise lines are in for some rough times in the next few years ... as they build all these new ships and now have to fill them ... with a smaller pool of people to fill them with. My guess is that many "American" cruise lines are gonna find themselves basing more ships in other markets ... markets whose economy and currency are doing just fine.

 

Blue skies ...

 

--rita

[Sundagger]

I'm with you on this. The in cabin experience is substantially better than it once was. The cabins are better appointed than they used to be.

 

So much of what some passengers refer to as nickle and diming is nothing more than paying for something that either was previously unavailable ( such as internet) and/or is of better quality than it once was ( such as coffee).

 

I'll also agree with Lisa and Melodie - at least as far as my 6 years cruising with HAL goes. They invested $425 million in the Signature of Excellence upgrades and are continuing to modify even the oldest, smallest ships. I'm sure there have been many changes since last century, but in recent years, I've been quite pleased with HAL.

[Philip217]

I work for one of HAL's sister companies. Our advance bookings for 2009 are the highest we have ever experienced. And our yield (which translates to profit) is higher than it has been in many years.

 

The pool of prospective cruisers is not shrinking - but expanding rapidly.

 

The only ones we are losing are the Americans who can't afford to cruise anyway. But we are gaining millions of new European and Asian cruisers who see cruising as the bargain of the decade.

 

Even better, the Europeans and Asians spend more money onboard every day.

 

Business looks very good for the cruise industry.