Hurricane Bertha

[Susie51]

I have cruised on the west coast several times in Sept.This will be my second New England cruise in Sept. The last one was in 2004. A couple on the cruise from Florida had a hurricane hit their hometown twice that year.

 

Sorry I sounded nervous. Actually, I was more curios than nervous.

 

Thank you for the quick responses.

 

Happy Anniversary! Wishing you blue skies, and calm seas.

[CoachTerry14]

[galstx]

We leave from Port Canaveral to Coco Cay, St. Thomas, and St. Maarten on July 5th; guesstimates on Bertha's impact to us? If they divert, where is it likely we'll go??

 

Bertha is bumming me!

 

galstx

[FIRELT5]

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=802145

[FIRELT5]

We leave from Port Canaveral to Coco Cay, St. Thomas, and St. Maarten on July 5th; guesstimates on Bertha's impact to us? If they divert, where is it likely we'll go??

 

Bertha is bumming me!

 

galstx

 

You should have no problems for the next 5 days or so. Depending on the exact track, Strength, you (may ?????) see some elevated long period swells from Bertha in about a week. Stay Tuned :) Current Forecast looks good for the eastern Carribean

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?FcstType=text&TempBox=1&DewBox=1&ExtraBox=1&WindBox=1&HumidBox=1&SkyBox=1&WeatherBox=1&PoPBox=1&textField1=&textField2=&site=SJU&map.x=317&map.y=109

[melissa@cruisecritic]

Hi everyone, we're monitoring Tropical Storm Bertha and are glad to report that at this point, cruise ports and itineraries should not be affected -- prediction models currently have the storm well east of the Caribbean islands through Monday. Watch our Hurricane Zone for information; we'll post updates there should the speed or direction change at all:

 

Hurricane Zone

[Ms belp]

Well, it's been quiet so far this year. The Weather Channel says Bertha may affect offshore US by next week. Anyone have any concerns about their upcoming cruise?

[salty dingo]

Certainly an interesting weather-maker to watch!

[CoachTerry14]

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 13

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008

500 Am Edt Sun Jul 06 2008

 

Not Many Changes To Report With Bertha This Morning. The Cyclone

Continues To Move Quickly Westward Along A Heading Of About 280/19

To The South Of The Subtropical Ridge. The Objective Guidance Is In

Very Good Agreement Through About 48 Hours On A General

West-northwestward Motion...and A Gradual Slowing Of The Forward

Speed As Heights Build To The Northwest Of Bertha Over The

Subtropical Western Atlantic. The Models Still Diverge

Significantly At Days 3 Through 5...but They Have Generally Come

Into A Little Better Agreement On A Turn Toward The Northwest By

Then...although At A Forward Speed Of About Half Of Bertha's

Current Motion. The Outlier Is The Hwrf That Forecasts A Much

Sooner Turn Toward The North Along About 58w. None Of The

Models...however...forecast Bertha To Reach 30 Degrees North

Latitude Within Five Days. While The Ridge Over The Western

Atlantic Is Forecast To Be Much Weaker By The End Of The Five-day

Forecast Period...the Models Do Not Depict A High-amplitude Trough

That Would Accelerate Bertha Into The Middle Latitudes. So It Is

Far Too Early To Determine If Or When Bertha Will Recurve. The New

Official Track Forecast Is Adjusted Slightly To The Right...toward

But Not As Far East As The Consensus.

 

The Waters Beneath Bertha Are Currently About 26 Celsius And

Continue To Get Warmer As The Cyclone Proceeds Westward...and By 48

Hours From Now They Should Be Approaching 28 Celsius. Vertical

Wind Shear Should Not Strengthen During This Period...so Gradual

Strengthening Is Forecast In Line With Nearly All Of The Objective

Intensity Guidance...and Bertha Could Be A Hurricane In A Couple Of

Days. Beyond That Time...the Waters Will Be Plenty Warm...so The

Determining Factor On The Intensity Of Bertha Will Probably Be Wind

Shear. The Upper-level Pattern Forecast By The Models At Days 3

Through 5 Is Complex...and It Is Hard To Determine Just How Much

Shear Will Be Affecting Bertha During That Period. Despite Taking

Into Account A Modest Increase In Shear Based On The Gfs Model Wind

Fields...the Ships And Lgem Forecast 70-75 Kt At 72-120 Hours...so

The New Official Intensity Forecast Peaks At 70 Kt...a Little

Higher Than The Previous Advisory. Given The Uncertainties In The

Atmospheric Pattern At Those Long Ranges...however...this Is Not A

High Confidence Intensity Forecast.

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 06/0900z 17.3n 43.2w 45 Kt

12hr Vt 06/1800z 17.9n 46.1w 50 Kt

24hr Vt 07/0600z 18.7n 49.5w 55 Kt

36hr Vt 07/1800z 19.6n 52.5w 60 Kt

48hr Vt 08/0600z 20.4n 55.1w 65 Kt

72hr Vt 09/0600z 22.5n 60.0w 70 Kt

96hr Vt 10/0600z 24.5n 64.0w 70 Kt

120hr Vt 11/0600z 27.0n 67.5w 70 Kt

 

$$

Forecaster Knabb

[IJAcruisers]

yes me, on the spirit in two weeks and i'm concerned of storms while in the middle of the ocean... it's my first cruise and I am kind of nervous

[trvlgrl422]

I'm very nervous about it! It seems any time I travel I hit a hurricane, tornado,etc. I have so many odd travel experiences. It's never normal.

 

I'm watching it closely and hoping it will pass by there before we're scheduled to be there (Mon. and Tues.). I hope it breaks apart and goes to sea.

[surbish]

I'm a bit concerned, but looking forward to what is shaping up to be an adventure.

 

We're on the Miracle out of NYC on Saturday 7/12 heading to San Juan.

 

Been of five cruises never much weather to deal with. Guessing there really isn't much chance we're going to miss rough seas this time around.

 

Does anyone have experience cruising near a hurricane?

[molly361]

My sister is just about now boarding the Dawn in NYC heading to Bermuda. I spoke to her yesterday and I certainly was NOT going to mention Bertha. She didn't say anything either so I just let it slide!!! Hope they make out okay!!!! I feel bad for her as they have waited and waited and waited for this cruise to come. Oh well!!!

[4cruizers]

We get on the Liberty at the Port of Miami next Saturday. I am thinking it will be past us by then. Living in FL you learn to deal with storms, lately we have had a lot of afternoon storms. I just want to get on the boat and get away from here for a week.

[Aplmac]

.. look like this... as found at this NOAA webpage

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

[Aplmac]

..from NOAA webpage at..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

 

look like..

[DINGYDAVE]

I too am on the Miracle Saturday the 12th. Ny to San Juan puts us right smack in the middle of the path. Even if we miss it there will be rough seas. I don't care, I'm still going to make the most of it. Maybe we will have to change direction to avoid it.

[Bakincakes]

I too am on the Miracle Saturday the 12th. Ny to San Juan puts us right smack in the middle of the path. Even if we miss it there will be rough seas. I don't care, I'm still going to make the most of it. Maybe we will have to change direction to avoid it.

 

 

If it is bad enough they may change your intinerary.

[steve4040]

I'm on the Inspiration to Grand Cayman and Cozumel. Looks like we dodged a bullet. My main concern is getting to Florida. We have flights on the 12th to Tampa on Southwest. If they decide not to fly, that will make things complicated. If worse comes to worse, my plan B is to fly to Atlanta on Airtran, rent a car, and drive to Tampa. Under this plan, we would arrive on Sunday, still in plenty of time to board on Monday.

 

If we could not get to Atlanta on Saturday, I would just rent a car and start driving. It would be an ordeal, but it is doable.

[Dolphins]

Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to intensify into a hurricane and is currently on course for Bermuda. Hope it will not effect the NCL Bermuda cruises next weekend?

[salty dingo]

The center of the forecast path of the storm is now to the south and west of Bermuda, but the island is certainly in the range of possible paths.

 

If it does affect Bermuda, it looks like it will hit on Saturday. That's probably a good day as these things go since the NCL ships like Majesty are usually on the East Coast of the US at that time.

[dsmini]

:mad: oh me tooo!

[HCW]

No doubt that we have a cat 1 cane now

 

 

 

From http://skeetobiteweather.com

[mom2girls]

Oh, I hope it keeps moving north! Then, when it hits the colder waters hopefully it will die out.

[HCW]

I hope that the current track is wrong cause it's headed right for Bermuda