BermudaBound2014

Yep, CCL was going for a hostile take over of P&0 Princess which was rejected and plans were set forth to merge with Royal Caribbean. It appeared to be close to a done deal before P&O backed out of the merger. Setting the stage for a battle of the cruise-ship giants, P&O Princess Cruises PLC Sunday rejected a 3.2 billion pound ($4.61 billion or 5.16 billion euro) hostile takeover offer from Carnival Corp. and reaffirmed its merger plans with Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines Ltd. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1008531669684222760 As we all know, P&O Princess was acquired by CCL after all. Details of the acquisition are in the link below. Britain's biggest cruise ship operator, P&O Princess, yesterday agreed to join forces with its US rival Carnival Corporation, throwing overboard an earlier deal with Royal Caribbean after an epic 11-month takeover saga https://www.theguardian.com/business/2002/oct/26/2

I still don't see a reason to be alarmed. Less than 7% of ICU beds have covid positive patients. Only 73% of ICU beds are in use. Tracks about the same as overall hospitalization. Good news for anyone sailing from Florida.

Great link! I bookmarked it last year and totally forgot about it. I agree, the newer data is always better. According to the Johns Hopkins dashboard, Florida hospitalization rates are still quite low, especially as it relates to covid admission. Week of June 6-12. -Only 78% of hospital beds are occupied. - Less than 7% of those beds have covid positive patients (3,000 covid positive beds out of 45,000 beds in use) I don't see a reason to be alarmed and still think this is good news for those cruising out of Florida.

Great post, thank you for sharing your thoughts. Instead of selling ships, CCL is big enough where they can start selling off entire cruise lines under the CCL umbrella. I believe Seabourn will be the first to go. These are rumors but since the Saudi's funded lots of debt since March of 2020 (I believe they maybe up to around 15%?), it makes sense. Then again, what makes sense to me doesn't always span put 😄 Personally, I think HAL is also vulnerable given they have zero new builds on the docket. Princess is now the poster child for covid, so that's problematic too. https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/27561-report-carnival-corp-eyeing-seabourn-brand-sale-to-saudi-arabia.html

This article is linked in the stock thread, but it makes sense here too. At least one financial player (Bank of America) believes that prices are going to start trending down: - demand for cruising is weakening - ticket prices declined from May to June (2022) -ticket prices have fallen 2.6% for 2024 bookings https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cruise-stocks-may-be-in-trouble-as-demand-seems-to-be-eroding-bof-a-200745167.html

Another excellent post :). I believe that the fear of catching covid is only one chapter in the story of why cruise ships are sailing with low occupancy. I agree that the fear itself can be debilitating and also acknowledge that anyone with a serious comorbidity probably has good reason to be cautious since, as you stated, cruises are places where viruses are transmitted easier. The other half of the coin is that there are a large group of people who aren't cruising because of the current protocols (masking, testing, and vaccination). Some will not vacation when a mask is required. Some are hesitant to select cruising and then test positive and be quarantined. Many will not vaccinate children, and about 35% of the American Population refuses to vaccinate as an adult. Still others enjoy land vacations and are willing to go that route until cruising simmers down. The industry is damned if the do and damned if they don't. This is where Niche markets may come in. Specific ships that cater to each side of the coin. They did this when the ban on smoking was first introduced. Certainly it would be messy out of the gate, but I'm thinking outside the box and that's what it is going to take if we want cruise lines to survive financially.

All cruise lines are struggling to recruit passengers. I do agree that much of the hesitancy is due to covid protocols. I know that, for me, I will not sail again until the possibility of quarantine is removed and I'm just one of many. Since guests are onboard a ship for many days, cruise ships do not have the same plausible deniability offered to the airlines and hotels. They are caught between a rock and hard place. It's bleak.

@Crazy planning mom you have me walking down memory lane. Remember when CCL tried to take over Celebrity but Royal Caribbean came to the rescue with a friendly merge? https://www.nytimes.com/1997/07/03/business/royal-caribbean-and-celebrity-in-definitive-merger-agreement.html#:~:text=Royal Caribbean International and Celebrity,subject only to regulatory approval. I remember this one from 1989. CCL bought all of HAL... https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1989-02-12-tr-2780-story.html

The offer I received was not a casino offer. It was a general promotion welcoming me back to HAL. As I said, it has been years since sailing HAL. However; I did have an Antarctica trip booked for Jan of 2021, so maybe their system was targeting those who had cruises cancelled (and did not take FCC)? Who knows, but what I do know is that my offer had nothing to do with the casino.

We are all just speculating, and I'm certainly a novice, but IMO a hostile (or friendly) take over is not out of the question. It's not unprecedented. Carnival attempted a hostile takeover of NCL in 1996 and 1999. Ironically Genting (who is now bankrupt) won a hostile takeover of NCL in 2000. It happens. You may find this article interesting: https://www.foxbusiness.com/features/how-much-is-a-cruise-line-worth Genting previously acquired 100% of NCL in a dramatic bidding war back in 2000. At the time, there was already an NCL Holding trading on the New York Stock Exchange that went public in 1999; it owned both Norwegian Cruise Line and the smaller Orient Line. In 1999, Carnival Corp. launched a hostile bid for NCL Holding, offering shareholders a higher price than they could get on the open market. The bid was equal to $900 million at the time, and it looked like Carnival would win the day. But a few days later a surprise player emerged: Star Cruises of Malaysia. The company acquired 20% of NCL Holdings overnight, and quickly increased its stake to 39%. It was not clear whether Star was working in concert with NCL to ward off Carnival, but in the end it didnt matter since enough shares had been taken off the table to stop Carnivals hostile takeover.

Bingo! Excellent post. We all know it is the job of the CEO and team to paint as rosy picture as possible. It's the job of investors to pay close attention. Here is a headline that ran in gobs of articles touting how great the future of cruising is, but what they fail to mention is that March 31st was the first hard deadline to book FCC's or lose them. No surprise bookings were high, but they were manufactured. Yet the headlines temporarily drove the price of stocks up. "United States-based international cruise liner Carnival Cruise Line recorded its highest booking week ever between March 28 and April 3. The cruise liner saw a double-digit increase in bookings compared to its previous record for maximum seven-day bookings." CCL closed at $11.05 yesterday which represents a 63% decline since cruises resumed last June. The stock hasn't been this low since March of 2020. As you said... "Make no mistake, the cruise lines are in more trouble then some think."

If by “improving” you mean paying down debt, I concur ;).

It's obvious that the market for those willing to pay to cruise is limited, and it appears to be getting smaller by the month (if financial releases are to be believed). At some point then need bodies as there are other revenue generators once people are onboard. It seems as though those getting free cruises are willing to spend more onboard (again, if the quarterly releases are to be believed). I'm sure CCL has it down to a science. I know that RCL just published that in order for them to make a profit on a sailing they need to have 90% occupancy. Occupancy in the first quarter was only 54% for CCL. Summer should bring that up, but then we move into the historically slow season of the fall.

We spent last October hiking just Yellowstone and Grand Teton. Amazing trip. Glacier is equally stunning. This is why I'm not in any hurry to sail again until the quarantine requirements have vanished. There is so much to see and do on land that, as much as I love cruising, I'm not willing to take the risk. You are going to have a great time!

I agree that it's not surprising demand is declining, but I suspect it has much to do with current covid protocols and especially the possibility of quarantine. The new megaship market is more likely to include unvaccinated populations (if only based on age). Since unvaccinated cruisers need to jump thru some additional loopholes, I believe that again, it's the covid protocols most suspect. And once we remove all covid protocols, cruising is left with the image of a 'petri dish' which could take decades to erase. And then there is inflation. Another nail. I understand that there isn't one easy answer. Ships held to different standards if only because, unlike hotels, they do not have plausible deniability. It's a hot mess.

As Bocadud stated, there are places right in the airport to purchase pineapple to carry on the plane. Most airlines allow you to bring pineapple as part of your carry on (check your airline). I purchase Maui Gold pineapple from Costco because it is significantly less expensive than the airport. IMO, Maui gold is the pineapple you want 🙂

My offer was completely free for the cabin, but I had to pay taxes and port fees. I won't buy until the possibility of quarantine is removed, but obviously that's just me. My guess right now is that HAL is targeting customers who haven't sailed with them in awhile. Trying to tap into returning guests who may have been electing to sail other lines. My last HAL trip was about 5 years ago with HAL. For what it's worth, it is not uncommon for incentive programs to be offered to guests who are less than loyal as they are banking on loyal guests remaining loyal. This is one of the reasons I have zero brand loyalty in most things.

Thanks... I wasn't adjusting for shares outstanding. But let's face it, $3.94 isn't out of the question 😉

Summary at the closing bell. NCL lost 4.5% today NCL lost another 15.7% this week NCL has lost 58% since launching the "Great Cruise Comeback" in June of 2021 Currently NCL is the same price as it was on April 6, 2020. At this rate it will reenter March of 2020 pricing early next week. Is everyone paying attention?

Just curious your thinking. Why would a solo need a club balcony suite? Last I checked, the only difference in size is the bathroom. Are there other perks I'm missing?

This begs the question: How much has investor faith in the cruise industry eroded since RCL's last financing? I believe RCL last refinanced in January of 2022? Since then, all three company's have released alarming quarterlies. Personally, I believe RCL is positioned best financially to weather this storm. Initially I had faith in CCL also, but at this point the more ships that are sailing, the faster debt is racking up. Demand is eroding even further. Prices dropped 2.6% last month with the outlook remaining bleak into 2024. Numbers are alarming. CCL stock has dropped 63% since last June. That's a 63% decline since ships started sailing again. Stock prices are approaching March of 2020 with ships sailing. And now we have a 20 year record high inflation rate which certainly won't help CCL's mainstream lines. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cruise-stocks-may-be-in-trouble-as-demand-seems-to-be-eroding-bof-a-200745167.html Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, and Carnival all saw capacity-weighted sequential ticket pricing declines from May to June, according to new data from BofA Global Research. Price declines ranged from 1% to 3% compared to May, with Carnival seeing the largest drop (2.6%). The pricing softness looks to be extending into 2023 and 2024, BofA noted, as ticket pricing for all three cruise lines fell 2.6% on average for 2024 in the latest survey

Finally some Baby steps!! This is the first step to removing all covid protocols which, imo, is what it's going to take from a business perspective. CCL stock is approaching March 2020 numbers. Better hope the Saudis buy Seabourn and offer some debt relief. This is bleak.

I also received the offer. Just pay port and taxes.

Thanks. So you keep it nice and simple :). The initial volume at opening was driving PPS up. Then it tanked, as we would expect. There has been a pretty distinct pattern with cruise stock. Rally at the opening bell, then sell off at 10:30. Repeat at 2:00 p.m. It's pretty much like clockwork. What are your thoughts on this?

What does that volume movement suggest to you?