BermudaBound2014

My best to you!!!

@Biker19 Thanks. I saw this. Thought it interesting that there were shell companies who purchased. I looked into both briefly yesterday. A scaffolding co and a tech company. I also thought the price discrepancy huge between the two. The Crystal Endeavor was the highest valued ship of the three so it will be interesting if RCL paid more or less than the Serenity sale.

I'm not loyal to any one cruise company and find when it all shakes out they are more alike than different. Each line has certain things they do well, and other things that can be improved. Variety is the spice of life! Enjoy shopping

The OBC is certainly nice, especially when the risk is $700. Not so great when the risk was $3,000. When prices hit what I guess to be the bottom, I'll likely by 100 shares of each line. At those March 2020 covid low prices, it's chump change.

Now that we can both agree on 100% 🙂

NOt to mention the airlines had a soft landing funded by the Feds. Highly unlikely in the case of cruising.

Interestingly, MSC has no debt and is the strongest player financially with lots of aspiration. While MSC cruises is losing tons of cash, MSC Shipping (the largest shipping container company in the world) is cash flush and momma and daddy are bailing out their baby. I believe NCLH is the weakest of the three. If only by size. It is very small comparatively and prime for a takeover. See above (obviously pure speculation on my part). I foresee CCL just piecing themselves out. First they sell Seabourn. Next Costa? Or maybe HAL? How about Princess? Or P&O?? All could be parted out if there were buyers. The Saudi Sovereignty already has a financial interest in CCL. Regarding leadership: NCL's Del Rio isn't going anywhere. Remember, he already lead Renaissance cruises thru bankruptcy. During Covid he DOUBLED HIS PAY, even though shareholders voted against it. "In a year in which Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. lost $4 billion and employee salaries were cut by 20% as the cruise operator struggled to deal COVID-19-related shutdowns, Chief Executive Frank Del Rio’s total pay more than doubled to over $36 million" https://www.marketwatch.com/story/norwegian-cruise-ceos-total-pay-more-than-doubles-to-over-36-million-during-year-of-covid-11617816363 I'm not sure if I've said this in this forum, but I have used the three bear analogy. CCL is too big NCLH is too small RCL maybe just right.

That's a very interesting theory :). I don't predict the collapse of the entire industry. There will always be cruise ships. I do predict an overwhelming restructuring with CCL coming out much smaller and leaner. They are big enough to piece out entire cruise lines to pay interest rates.

That's all you get. And, just a FYI, Carnival appears to have added a caveat to their stock OBC stating that you can only get the OBC if the price isn't discounted. People are reporting being turned down because their cruise price was so low. It's not RCL, but....

Story of my life. I mentioned that I prematurely closed all my shorts at $60 and now it's trading $35. Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda 😄 Just glad I didn't go long at $40. This thing still has room to drop.

I agree, it's a really strange proposal and definitely 'out of the box' thinking, but I've been accused of that silliness all my life. Of course, the experiment could fail miserably :).

Carnival Cruise Line is now permitting guests who are medically unable to be vaccinated to set sail without presenting a doctor’s note at embarkation to stipulate to their medical exemption. https://www.cruisehive.com/carnival-cruise-line-makes-minor-change-to-protocols/74220

Thank you. I do realize that the quarterlies should include specifics, but I am hoping for some type of leak before then as the results will influence if I buy long with RCL.

That would be "price to fill" 🙂... Congratulations. I really like the Oasis class.

I have not heard of this recently, but I haven't heard they aren't doing it yet either. I do 'think' the days of quarantining based on contract tracing are over, but I'm still not ready to take that risk. I was never really bothered by an inside/oceanview room until I started following the Diamond princess blogs at the start of all this. I know I would survive, but my current cruise interests are very lengthy cruises which carries a higher risk. I'm also cautioned by the financial future of cruising especially considering lengthy cruises carry much more risk. Lots of folks who put deposits on the bankrupt Crystal cruises are not protected by their credit card. I've read of people leaving 5 figures on the table there :(. Back on topic (kind-of)... Celebrity cruises just announced they are removing vaccination requirements for anyone under 17 sailing in the med. All these baby steps add up :).

So you are asking my opinion, I'll preface this with I'm nothing more than another idiot on the internet and don't suggest anyone take stock advice from me. With that said, these are my thoughts.... I do believe there is risk here. Chapter 11/7/Bk. With this debt, interest rates rising, an all out recession in progress, cruise ship covid protocols, image of cruising in a 'petri dish', price of oil, etc.... I think cruise lines are in serious trouble with no end in the immediate future. With that, I believe RCL is the strongest of the three. The feds increased .75 yesterday. That increase was pretty much built in with Monday/Tuesday tumble. I believe the market is reacting today to rumors of another .75 in July. I believe it will get worse with our normal Friday sell off tomorrow. I'm not sure the price I"m back in at, but it's possible that tomorrow's low may entice me enough to bite. I'm trying to figure out how RCL bought the Crystal Endevour. They purchased Silverstein with stock credits, so if they purchased Endevour with the same method it's not a great predictor. If anyone can find this out, I'd be much appreciated. What are your thoughts?

I apologized for this mistake in another post. On the day that Carnival announced movement of Costa Luminesa (which does not have a polar cert), Royal Caribbean also announced the purchase of Crystal Endeavor (which does have a polar cert). I got the news stories confused temporarily, but it was too late to edit. Again, my apologies for misinformation. I usually try to be better than that.

I agree with almost everything here. I said 'almost' because I am one who is not choosing to cruise for the risk of being quarantined. I think I have good odds of not testing positive pre-cruise, but a cruise ship does appear to have very high transmission rates (if only because they do not have plausible deniability). If cruise lines can say that they absolutely are no longer contact tracing I would be more likely to jump back in, but the thought of spending any length of time locked up in quarantine because I sat next to the wrong person at the comedy club makes my palms sweat. My vacation choices are much more diverse than cruising. Don't get me wrong, I love cruising, but I love other forms of travel too. Until I can be guaranteed I won't be quarantined I'll continue to travel like I have the last two years. Sometimes I miss cruising, but in the grand scheme of things, I haven't missed anything in terms of travel except some fantastic last minute cruise prices :).

I absolutely agree that the risk of quarantining likely has a much greater impact on bookings than testing. I also acknowledge that because a significant portion of the cruising demographics likely has one or more comorbidities, the fear of COVID plays a role. Those with comorbidities should think twice before boarding a cruise ship since they are the most likely demographics to be hospitalized with Covid. However; as time goes on, the outright fear of Covid is approaching negligible in the general population. Sure, some people will remain afraid of the virus forever, but I surmise that most (without comorbidity) have moved on from fear and are ready to live with the risk. However; I disagree that the fear of a failed test is not a significant factor in keeping Americans away from sailing NCL. NCL is sailing mostly in Alaska/Caribbean. It is estimated that the average age of a American cruiser on NCL is 43. In this age range, many would also have children (NCL is heavily marketed toward families with young children). This age bracket has very precious vacation time and is more likely flying to a port. The 'risk' of testing positive is greater than someone retired who is driving. Why choose cruising with the risk of being turned away at the port when a family can choose another vacation mode with zero risk? This age bracket (including their children) is likely asymptomatic and the odds of serious illness are extremely low. I still believe vaccination is likely the largest obstacle to cruising but I recognize I am in the minority on the forum. It is my belief that all Covid protocols need to be removed before cruising resumes occupancy levels mirroring pre-pandemic. I'm also doubling down on the belief that a niche market exists and suggest cruise lines dip their toes in this experiment, but no one listens to little ol' me 😉 Of course, I also acknowledge covid protocols may never be removed from cruising because, what we have learned, is that covid protocols don't always follow logic.

Thank you for that. I stand corrected. I received the offer for the first time last week.

The last week in the market has been especially brutal to all the cruise stocks. While the Dow is down 7%, RCL is down 28% (in the last 5 days). Since cruising resumed this time last year, RCL is down 60%. Interest rate cost on the debt alone area approaching a full quarter operating profit. That is BRUtAL. "For Royal Caribbean, investors can count on profits being lower (or losses higher) by $462 million given that company's $23.1 billion debt.....it appears that over the course of a year, these higher interest rates have the potential to consume as much as a full quarter's worth of forecast operating profit at Royal Caribbean" https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/16/why-cruise-stocks-sank-again-on-thursday/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article Wall street is showing very little confidence in the cruise industry.

In the last year, Disney has fallen 45% while NCL has fallen 67%. When it falls below $7 I will likely cash in all my shorts and switch to long too. A $700 investment is negligible in the grand scheme of things.

I think you are missing a big piece of the puzzle. I agree, the number of guests who testing eliminates is negligible. I also suspect that NCL would lose some paying customers due to feeling 'unsafe'. But I surmise that NCL will gain significantly more customers than they would lose when they eliminate pre testing. The rational is obvious.

Buckle up. Feds increased .75% yesterday and are now rumored for another .75% in July. This is the greatest inflation rate since the 80's with no sign of settling down. As a result, NCL stock is down again today. IMO single digits are around the corner. Yes the stock market is down overall, but cruise line stock continues to plummet at a much higher rate. In the last month the Dow has lost 4.76% while NCL stock lost 35.7%. In the last month! The stock has lost 67% since they launched the "Great Cruise Comeback" last year. Even though the stock price looks attractive, I would not purchase this stock for the $100 OBC until we know where the bottom is.

It is not supply and demand. At the last 6 quarterly releases Del Rio has doubled down on "market to fill' strategy for pricing. This is reflected in the fact that NCL currently has the lowest booking ratio of the big three. They sailed at 50% for Q1 and 'hope' to get to 65% in Q2. It's expected to take to this time next year to reach 100%. Read 'expected'. Demand is not there so NCL pricing is not based on demand. If you want to see demand pricing, take a look at the other cruise lines, who are also suffering great financial losses. Of course, keeping prices high helps to dilute all the FCC they have given so there's that. With all that said, there are big deals to be had on NCL if you are willing to sail last minute, so in this regard NCL appears to keep 'market to fill' until final payment and then switches to 'pricing to fill'. I have also been targeted for a 25% American Express discount and if I'm not mistaken this is the first time NCL has participated in the Amex offer. If demand were high, this new offer wouldn't exist. Stock quickly approaching single digits reflects little faith in the industry survival without significant reorganization. I would not advise anyone to pay high prices for a NCL cruise at this time. But, that's just me ;).