BermudaBound2014

I'm not sure I agree with this part. FCC's are debt. IMO it's all about the debt at this point. Of course, they could always manipulate the FCC's. Example; they can keep the FCC's in place but make them not applicable to current sale pricing. Therefore people using FCC would pay XXX for a cruise, while people bringing cash would pay YYYY. That's a way to reduce debt load to a potential buyer. Right now CCL is literally giving cruises away just to get bodies onboard.

It was July of 2021 that I switched my positions from long to short and that has been an extremely lucrative play, so in this case, I am very grateful that my crystal ball was polished up and shining bright. But in all honesty, it was not difficult to anticipate that with the CDC involved, cruising had a much more difficult and long road back. By July of 2021 there was already tremendous debt. Writing was on the wall.

Not a chance lol

Much like those in the stock threads that cheered on cruise stock, staying it would skyrocket once ships began sailing again. Well, ships began sailing last July and here we are. CCL has lost nearly 70% of it's stock since this great cruise comeback. Those of us who went short were called crazy, yet we have tripled our money already. Human nature.

Bingo ^

I think the language about this being a "test" came from the P&O press release last week where they stated pre-testing was "temporarily" being removed on Iona as more ships remove testing in foreign countries. https://www.cruisehive.com/carnival-owned-cruise-line-temporarily-drops-pre-departure-testing/74640 Baby steps.

That was me who said the 'final blow' statement and in retrospect that really wasn't clear. For clarity, by 'final blow' I mean the final straw that breaks the camels back and changes cruising from the lines we know to whatever new standard emerge. But I do agree that the glory days of cruising are likely behind us (at least until the cruise lines can get their debt under control). I have mixed feelings here. Absolutely, cruising will always remain. All evidence points to exotic and luxury lines having the greatest staying power in this economy. However; I don't see prices rising significantly for the masses. There is too much supply (and more ships entering every day with 100,000+ berths on order). The mainstream larger ships are still going to need bodies onboard and to do that the price of entry needs to remain attractive. I see amenities onboard rising in price and services being reduced with added cost, but I think cruise lines are still going to be forced to offer great prices to fill ships (especially to those of us who understand the game of last minute booking).

Thank you for that article. I hadn't read it and it was quite interesting. Here is an article talking about Carnival Cruise line sailing at 110%. "The brand is expected to operate at 110 percent occupancy for the all-important summer season, according to Arnold Donald, president and CEO of Carnival Corporation." The article goes on to say this is only some of the ships sailing 'close to home', but at least some ships are sailing full. https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/27776-carnival-cruise-line-to-operate-full-ships-this-summer-at-110-percent-occupancy.html But I do acknowledge that there is absolutely a crew shortage. If you follow crew social you will see many crew do not want to return until masks and vaccine mandates are removed. It seems there are some visa issues also. However; I don't believe CCL has the luxury of turning away guests. It's possible they are staffing ships according to demand (moving crew to more popular sailings). It's all a mess. One thing to note on the side from the article you linked; we can never compare the Pride of America to any other cruise ship. Because it only sails within the USA (Hawaii) It's the only ship that must operate with 95% American Crew so they have different rules and MANY staffing challenges. Happy cruising 🙂

I respectfully disagree. If ships were limiting capacity due to staffing that information would be included in the quarterly releases. Ships sailed full over Easter and there are no less employees now. In fact, I believe Arnold Donald even stated capacity is at 100% now. I will go back and look for that press release. In the meantime if you have any reference to support your theory I am very interested in listening.

I'm no longer sure any amount analysts can be trusted. It is clear to me that the market is manipulated. As you say, the numbers are all available. Here's a good start for anyone interested: https://www.carnivalcorp.com/financial-information/quarterly-and-semiannual-reports BTW, CCL just hit another 52 week low this morning. Current trading at 8.24 (but it's early). IMO we will see 7's.

Unfortunately, there aren't enough people with your mindset. CCL sailed with only 69% occupancy last quarter. They are on record stating they need 95% to turn a profit. That is impossible to sustain with current protocols. Sure there is the occasional popular ship, sailing at a popular time frame, offering a popular itinerary, at a popular price that is drawing 100% occupancy, but when you average occupancy over all the ships, the numbers fall off drastically. Lots of people are Vaxxed, boosted, and getting on with living. They just aren't choosing to cruise.

Of course there is a difference between ships and berths :-). I was responding to your statement that you doubt there are more berths at sea today. I believe that statement to be inaccurate. In addition, it looks like about a dozen new ships came in 2021. There are to be 12 new ships in 2022. I believe the number of ships which were actually scrapped is far lower than the number of ships that came online. Ships that were scrapped: https://thepointsguy.com/guide/cruise-ships-scrapped-sold-covid/ Ships that came online in 2021: https://www.cruisecritic.com/articles.cfm?ID=5712 Ships in 2022: https://travel.usnews.com/features/best-new-cruise-ships And if you look at the projected new ships in 2023 it's mind blowing. With all that, I absolutely agree that it appears the cruise ships which will survive (and flourish) are those which can offer both luxury and unique locations. Which places the industry in yet another quandary because the majority of cruise ships on order do not fit this demographic.

Truer words never spoken. It's heartbreaking. I've certainly never blamed the cruise industry leaders for this perfect storm, but I disagree with this statement. I love cruising, but not enough to risk the possibility of quarantine. I know others that can not cruise because they choose not to be vaccinated. Others who refuse to cruise with pre-testing in place. Others absent due to mandatory masks. The industry needs everyone back onboard. CCL sailed with a dismal 69% occupancy last quarter. They are on record saying they need 95% to turn a profit. It's bleak. If I were to place blame anywhere it would be with the CDC who holds cruising to different standards. But then again, there are people who would not cruise if all CDC protocols were removed, so it appears to be a real catch 22. I just don't see how the cruise industry can win.

I do not believe this is accurate. Sure HAL retired 4 ships (the Veendam, Maasdam, Amsterdam, and Rotterdam) for a total of approximately 5,000 passengers. You can add the Volendam to the mix and you still end up with LESS passengers than the 6,988 passenger Wonder of the Seas which debuted in March of 2022. The industry is adding 48,000 berths in 2022 alone. The amount of ships retired since covid did not even come close to housing this many passengers. https://www.cruisehive.com/12-major-new-cruise-ships-arriving-in-2022/55531 I do agree that currently supply exceeds demand, but I'm not reading any indication that the situation is headed towards a more favorable balance, at least I'm not reading any indication that I believe. The quarterly releases are window dressing and spun in the most favorable light. Once anyone starts really digging into the financials the dire state of the industry becomes crystal clear.

The discussion about Seabourn to Saudi Sovereignty was leaked on May 24th. Nothing new since then besides Arnold Donald stating on the record that CCL would consider selling off brands. https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/cnbc-carnival-is-exploring-sale-of-seabourn-to-saudi-investors Management Changes were announced last February. They go into effect August 1st. Morgen Stanley lowering to $7 is a hit. I suspect the news headline of stock being worth zero in a 'worse case scenario" moved the stock to the 52 week low this morning. It's still trading in the 8's. I believe this stock would have hit $7 with the abysmal financial release last Friday, but the market was in an upswing that day. Perhaps the adjustment is a result of deeper analysis of the quarterly release. This company is 35Billion (with a B) dollars in debt and climbing. Interest rates are a killer here. I do not believe it is alarmist to suggest using all FCC's asap and withholding new deposits until immediate sailings. Better safe than sorry. No one knows how this will pan out. "Morgan Stanley analysts slashed their base case price target to $7, according to Bloomberg, and maintained an Underweight rating on the stock. In a worst, or “bear case” scenario, Carnival’s (ticker: CCL ) price could reach zero, they added." https://www.barrons.com/articles/carnival-cruise-stock-price-target-cut-51656504056 PS: None of the cruise lines are in much better shape. I personally believe NCLH is worse off at the moment.

I tripled my money going from $10 to $30. Cashed in. Switched to Shorts. I'll sell 80% of them in the single digits and ride the rest to zero. That's the plan anyway 😉

Morgan Stanley slashed the base price to $7 this morning and this headline isn't helping either lol... Carnival stock could fall to 0 in worst case scenario "Morgan Stanley analysts slashed their base case price target to $7, according to Bloomberg, and maintained an Underweight rating on the stock. In a worst, or “bear case” scenario, Carnival’s (ticker: CCL ) price could reach zero, they added." Unfortunately, I do believe 0 is a possibility for any of the big 3.

Too late to edit. This should obviously read... CCL is going in the red at a faster rate than others. https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/27/why-cruise-line-stocks-dropped-today/

It's absolutely true, the company with the highest debt ratio (by far) is NCLH. And that's a whole different discussion for another board but I have some speculation there too lol. However; as you say, CCL is behemoth. And since all lines are currently losing money (adding to their debt), CCL is going in the black at a faster rate than the others. Based on everything I've read, the luxury lines have the largest appeal right now in terms of staying power. However; Aronld Donald did not deny that they are in talks with the Saudis. He didn't admit it either, but he did say that CCL would consider offing brands in the same interview. Since we are all speculating...what if... Seabourn goes off on it's own. Perhaps Saudis' pick up HAL as the 'medium' brand with Costa becoming their line for budget conscious. As I said, total speculation. I do think there are some issues with Princess also, since their name is most closely associated with the Covid Pandemic, and the 253 passenger quarantine on the Ruby a few weeks ago brought Princess back in the spotlight at the covid cruiseline. I wish it was time to start speculating about which cruise lines will survive this mess in tact, but we just aren't there yet. No one knows how this will play out.

More and more articles are being published which confirm your statement and are 'hinting' that testing is on it's way out the door. While this article doesn't contain more details than what we already know, the headline appears to be getting the public ready for change. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/royal-caribbean-carnival-could-drop-covid-testing-rules

Up until the last Federal interest rate hike of .75 a couple weeks ago I would agree with you. In fact, public perception is what I've been preaching since April of 2020. The 'image' of cruising in the eyes of Johnny Public has taken a blow. Perhaps fatal. It's more than tough to recover from the picture the media painted. With that; I do believe the game has changed and rising inflation rates are a more immediate threat to the industry. Sure some analysts are predicting lower interest rates by the end of the year, but have you spoken with a farmer lately? Their costs have risen 200% and those costs won't be fully passed along to the consumer until this years crop is harvested. Take a look at corn, wheat, and soy commodities on the DOW. The 5 year trend is scary stuff. Not to mention housing cost. Without making this political (just the facts) large chunks of Americas Farmland is being purchased by Bill Gates and Blackrock is buying the single family homes. One must pay attention to who is pulling the puppet strings. Inflation is a one/two punch to the cruise industry. First in the form of interest rates and Second in the form of lower occupancy. I could be wrong, lots of analysist disagree with me, but the debt here is astronomical. I no longer see a way out without restructuring (which could mean many different things).

Of course a comparison can be made. Crystal is under new ownership and the topic of this thread is whether or not HaL will be under new ownership. i would hope everyone here understands the difference between bankruptcy and a sale 😉

Who suggested otherwise? Lol

Growler- an iceberg the side of a piano or truck (I had to look that one up). thanks for reporting 🙂

No doubt testing is an obstacle. mandatory vaccine is also an obstacle possible quarantine is a big obstacle for many mandatory mask is an obstacle for some public perception of cruises as a Petri dish is an obstacle The current state of the airline travel is an obstacle Im not making a judgement on any of the above- simply saying all these things keep some people off ships and right now ships need every single body they can get. With all that said, I suspect inflation is soon to be the biggest obstacle for American families. No amount of pent up demand for travel will trump our basic needs. Cruise lines can’t catch a break.