Beezo

Interesting. Well given RCCL’s earnings, my gut is cash burn continued, and this continues to be a safety net. Maybe they were cash flow positive by the end of the quarter but are mindful of debt repayments? Also need to take into account startup charges for Prima.

Was curious if you were going to comment! I’m not actively invested in any cruise lines but have been watching closely. Was rooting for them in the rally this week and now CCL dropped that announcement. Will be an interesting day indeed tomorrow… It’s also been quiet couple weeks from CCL - rumors were circling around with the last round they did that Seabourn could be sold but haven’t heard a peep since. Brian

Thank you for sharing. Based on this - I think there is an overload of PR on Costa by Carnival and making due with what they have. Costa has too much capacity given current market trend. Carnival offloaded a lot of tonnage so transferring ships makes sense. However, they clearly do not have the liquidity to fully rebrand the ships to Carnival and are meeting halfway. This is the same case as Luminosa. I think what we will see are the ships named Carnival Venezia and Carnival Firenze and nothing more than Italian-themed ships to avoid retrofitting. Meals, entertainment, crew, etc will all be Carnival. Public spaces remain Italian - Essentially a Las Vegas’ Venetian Hotel at sea. I’m not buying the whole ‘Costa by Carnival’ ploy anymore …

Agree 100%. CCL earnings they stated: “We are very pleased with our portfolio of brands but will always have an open mind to do that makes sense for our shareholders.” hmmmmm 😉

With regards to Carnival - for starters, they are definitely working to cut costs and streamline business (well known). When the pandemic started they were incredibly quick to offload the Costa Victoria and neoRomantica. Those were older ships, as well as single-class ships at the time. There are tremendous synergies by operating more than one type of ship in a class. Those specific ships didn't have sisters within the family of brands either. Easily first to go... Below are the six ships I would anticipate are next in line for offloading, outside of what has been previously announced: AIDA'a AidaAura - Last V-class ship after AidaVita's recent departure Carnival's Elation & Paradise - Remove older tonnage and fleet simplification HAL's Volendam & Zaandam - Final R-Class ships. Also lets HAL operate a simplified fleet of just Vista, Signature and Pinnacle-class ships P&O's Aurora - Older ship in P&Os fleet. P&O currently has five ships in the fleet with only two in the same class. Aurora also does not have any within the family of brands. There has also been discussions regarding the future of Seabourn. That would release 5 ships and 2 new builds (Odyssesy, Sojourn, Quest, Encore, Ovation, Venture and Pursuit). Although smaller ships, the oldest is 2009. True value would be an acquisition of all 7 plus the brand itself. Within those discussions, I've seen that HAL & Cunard could be included as well. By offloading the Maasdam, Veendam, Rotterdam, and Amsterdam I'm sure it lifted the profitability of the brand, more so if they release the remaining R-class ships I mentioned above. These moves, in theory, would focus Carnival on US market (outside of the Costa by Carnival experiment), Costa on Italian market, AIDA on German market, and Princess as premium/upmarket globally. Costa by Carnival would help the erosion from MSC Cruises USA. Just my two cents - Just the realistic business side of what Carnival has to evaluate. They have $35B (with a B) in debt today. They paid $200M of debt principal and $400M of interest expenses this past quarter alone. They need to focus on the profitable ships and sell assets where its makes sense. Brian

Well today kicked off an interesting session. Given the overall market is up, tied in with Carnival Corp's earnings this morning...midday: CCL +15.14% RCL +14.14% NCL +14.01%

I think you are spot on. For starters, they are definitely working to cut costs and streamline business (well known). When the pandemic started they were incredibly quick to offload the Costa Victoria and neoRomantica. Those were older ships, as well as single-class ships at the time. There are tremendous synergies by operating more than one type of ship in a class. Those specific ships didn't have sisters within the family of brands either. Easily first tot go... Below are the six ships I would anticipate are next in line for offloading, outside of what has been previously announced: AIDA'a AidaAura - Last V-class ship after AidaVita's recent departure Carnival's Elation & Paradise - Remove older tonnage and fleet simplification HAL's Volendam & Zaandam - Final R-Class ships. Also lets HAL operate a simplified fleet of just Vista, Signature and Pinnacle-class ships P&O's Aurora - Older ship in P&Os fleet. P&O currently has five ships in the fleet with only two in the same class. Aurora also does not have any within the family of brands. There has also been discussions regarding the future of Seabourn. That would release 5 ships and 2 new builds (Odyssesy, Sojourn, Quest, Encore, Ovation, Venture and Pursuit). Although smaller ships, the oldest is 2009. True value would be an acquisition of all 7 plus the brand itself. Within those discussions, I've seen that HAL & Cunard could be included as well. By offloading the Madam, Veendam, Rotterdam, and Amsterdam I'm sure it lifted the profitability of the brand, more so if they release the remaining R-class ships I mentioned above. These moves, in theory, would focus Carnival on US market, Costa on Italian market, AIDA on German market, and Princess as premium/upmarket globally. Costa by Carnival would help the erosion from MSC Cruises USA. Just my two cents - and by no means doom and gloom. Just the realistic business side of what Carnival has to evaluate. They have $34.9B (with a B) in debt today. They paid nearly $368M in interest expenses alone last quarter. They need to focus on the profitable ships and sell assets where its makes sense. Brian

You make a good point. And even though the Carnival Sunshine had a big update, it's still the Destiny build in 1996, which is older than both Paradise and Elation. Micky Arison made a comment at the Mardi Gras christening. He was commenting on how great the Excel platform is across Carnival, Aida, Costa, and P&O. He mentioned that Aida will probably not receive another one beyond AIDAnova & AIDAcosma due to their size and they have plans for a smaller new build. I'm wondering if that would be another platform they can share across the brands. Could be a nice size replacement for the Fantasy Class ships down the road but with the modern amenities and efficiencies of the Xcel class. Sorry for the off-topic comment - Just sparked a thought! Brian

Same funnel, Carnival colors?

https://carnival-news.com/2022/06/22/carnival-cruise-line-to-bring-costa-venezia-to-the-u-s-in-2023-costa-firenze-in-2024-to-sail-as-part-of-the-carnival-fleet/ Im curious - Do you think they will rebrand the exterior of the ship to Carnival, but keep the interior Costa? There is mention of dry dock prior to entering Carnival's fleet...

I disagree, respectfully 🙂. I don't think you are going to see Costa absorbed into Carnival. I think they are feeling the pressure from MSC Cruises. They now have multiple ships based in the US market. MSC Cruises focuses on Italian-style cruising, no matter where the ship is in the world. Rather than build out the Costa brand to Americans, it's easier to position it as Costa by Carnival. It will have the Italian style but catered to Americans. Interesting move indeed...

Total list of ships under contruction/on order: Aida - NONE Carnival - Carnival Celebration & Carnival Jubilee Costa - NONE Cunard - Queen Anne Holland America - NONE P&O Cruises - Arvia P&O Australia - NONE Princess - Sphere Class 1 & 2 Seabourn - Seabourn Venture & Seabourn Pursuit Fleet size early 2020 was 100+ and have had 23 exit or planned to exit the fleet. During one of the recent inaugural cruises (I believe Mardi Gras), Micky Arison commented on how great the Excel-class ships are and work great cross brands. He also mentioned that Aida will not receive another ship that size given the market for that line and there are plans for smaller ships. Industry is always looking years out - I'd be shocked if they didn't have plans for new builds that were delayed by the pandemic. If the remainder of 2022 is calm, bookings pick up, debt paid down/restructured again, I wouldn't be surprised to see a modest order of a couple ships to be announced. The yards haven't any orders booked in the past two years and they can probably negotiated a decent price, IMO. Brian

Piggy back off the other day's comments - It looks like Carnival Corp sold another ship in the Aida Fleet - built in 2002. https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/27678-another-carnival-corp-ship-sold-aidavita-to-leave-fleet.html

Interesting - especially given she's only 20 years old. With that, I wouldn't be surprised if the AIDAaura is sold as well since they are both V Class ships. Doesn't make sense operationally to have single class ships in a fleet.

I'd say malfunction, OR, there were other boater(s) consistently not following right of way and was alerting them to move.

That’s better to say, I agree 🙂 many of those included items can be unlimited quantities too, lol.

It's a bit of a yes and no to this statement, unfortunately. Once a cruise ship reaches a certain age, I believe 30, they MUST have dry docks at a higher frequency...within 2 years. Every time ships are out of the water is time they aren't making money. on top of that, The older ships are significantly less fuel efficient They aren't sailing at capacity Inflation is impacting supplies for every voyage - every ingredient is facing a higher cost, which is typically free to customers, today sailing on a discounted cruise fare and must absorb the cost "no such thing as free..." Fuel is continuing to rise with absolutely no end or level off in sight Carnival Corp is sitting in $33 Billions (with a B) in debt, which all have due dates. Last quarter, they had $368 Million in interest payments alone. Every cruise line is chasing as much profit as they possibly can right now. Based on the bullet points above, if the formula makes sense to offload an additional ship or two, they will go that route. It's been stated that it looks like the Seabourn brand is for sale, which will be another cash infusion they can use to pay down more debt (5 ships and two on order). I've read on other conversations on CC that others wouldn't be surprised to see HAL and/or Cunard to follow Seabourn. In the end, they will definitely come out stronger - the steps to get there may be tough but necessary. Looking at total ship orders, Carnival Corp has 8 ships on order, Royal Caribbean has 8, NCLH has 9, MSC with 10. Brian

I'll try to dig it up, but I also believe Royal Caribbean at one point was in merger talks with P&O Princess (P&O Cruises, Princess Cruises, P&O Australia, Aida, A'Rosa, Ocean Village). They ended up merging with Carnival Corp and became dual listed. There was also a minute when NCL owned AIDA Cruises (1 ship fleet at the time), shortly after they acquired Majesty Cruise Line in the late 90s.

I heard today that Viva is supposed to be floated out in August. Based on timing I’m expecting we will start seeing some hullart very soon!

Exciting to see her coming right along! As always - Thank you for sharing the pictures!

I just waiting for MSC to make a move. Parent company also making moves on Alitalia/ITA with Lufthansa. The Global Dream at MV Werften is down to two bidders, one being Genting's KT Lim. Other bidder is speculated to be MSC.

I read on one forum (I believe here) that there was speculation a year ago that Seabourn and Cunard were of interest. Seabourn appears to be true... who knows - could be a package deal. I wouldn't be surprised at all if HAL or Cunard are sold off soon. When you breakdown what they are doing marketwise: Carnival - US "America's cruise line" P&O - British P&O Australia - ANZ AIDA - German Costa - Italian Princess - Premium HAL tended to focus on the traditional cruising and/or Baby Boomer generation and I don't see them moving the market strong downward. I see them investing in each brand and if they want an upper tier, move with Princess. Mind you, if this sale happens, that only leaves all of Carnival Corp with a handful of ships on the order books. Carnival Cruise Line Carnival Celebration Carnival Jubilee Cunard Queen Anne P&O Cruises Arvia Costa Cruises *NONE* Aida *NONE* Holland America *NONE* P&O Australia *NONE* Princess Cruises Sphere Class 1 Sphere Class 2 Seabourn Seabourn Venture Seabourn Pursuit Size/Capacity aside: Carnival Corp: 8 (six if Seabourn sold) Royal Caribbean/Celebrity/Silversea: 8 NCL/Oceania/Regent: 9 MSC/Explora: 10

Obviously Carnival Corp has current and future fleet, but on thing to consider is Carnival Corp has a total of 8 ships on order across all brands. Based on current supply chain issues/inflation/political issues since the initial announcement, does it make sense to pull a ship from Costa at this point. The line already released Victoria, neoRomantica, Atlantic, and Mediterranea in the last two years. Carnival Cruise Line Carnival Celebration Carnival Jubilee Costa Cruises NONE Aida NONE Holland American NONE Cunard Queen Anne P&O Cruises Arvia P&O Australia None Princess Cruises Sphere Class 1 Sphere Class 2 Seabourn Seabourn Venture Seabourn Pursuit

Got it. Thank you for clarifying.

Second thought - when he says "Norwegian won't sacrifice pricing" comments - I'm thinking he's referencing NCL Holding Company, inclusive of Oceania and Regent. Those brands have longer booking curves as well so wanting to stay the course on the current GTM.