Beezo

***PURE SPECULATION** If I were to make a guess...I'd say Deliziosa. This would give Carnival a total of six Spirit-class vessels, replacing a lot of the itinerary and homeport coverage previously held with the Fantasy-class vessels. Elation is currently in dry dock - but I believe at her age she now needs to be in dry dock a minimum of every two years.

A&K didn't just get the ships - they bought the whole brand, which also includes customer records. Gave them a significant headstart over just buying two ships and creating a brand (like Ambassador, CFC, Cordelia).

Bringing the thread back on track.... All of the cruise lines are in financial trouble, but are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel given no additional macro events other than Covid, war, inflation, recession continuing to trend negatively. I do feel NCLs GTM strategy is sound - Market to Fill, NOT discount to sell. Prime example of this is how Carnival has discounted tremendously to get the ships filled. Now, they are seeing they have too much value compared to land based resorts. Reversing pricing in this segment is SIGNIFICANTLY HARDER to than pricing down. Carnival has been measuring on load factors, which is absolutely fine if that is their strategy. With that - they are banking on higher onboard spending (alcohol, WiFi, photos, etc). They are already increasing prices on WiFi now. NCL is seeing a significantly longer booking window, which is key, Customers are purchasing their fares further in advance, some paying in full. By the time they get onboard they have a "fresh wallet." Think in terms of living paycheck to paycheck. If you have a significantly short booking period, only a certain percentage of that paycheck you are willing to spend onboard. With a further out booking window, cruisers can spend a higher percentage on the actual cruise. Now - What helps NCL even better in this scenario - they have higher pricing than they have had historically. 2023 will be an interesting year. Remember - even though they have record bookings, they cannot recognize that revenue until the cruise departs to wall st. SO, pile on higher pricing, plus more onboard spending (which IS happening for NCL) they could have a great 2023. Having said that - ALL of the cruise lines have a significant level of debt. Carnival is struggling to pay this down - they have had to dispose 20%+ of their fleet. Below is a quick analysis of chances of bankruptcy. Do take this lightly since there are a lot of factors than can happen - Ship sales, restructuring debt as it comes closer, etc. NCL feels they can pay down their debt organically without issuing more shares and tapping into $1.7B of revolving credit they DO have access to. And remember - NONE of the cruise lines received bailouts like the airlines. Chances of bankruptcy: Carnival Corp - 45% Royal Caribbean Group - 27% Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings - 52% https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/NCLH/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/RCL/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/CCL/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

Well this just got a bit more interesting.... https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/finance/world-dream-appears-limbo-following-singapore-auction-updated So it sounds like Resorts World did not bid, nor did Trey Hickey/KKR who were very active in the beginning.

Correct. The question is if this is a name for the area on Grand Bahama Island, or a rebrand of either HMC or Princess Cays.

Better image below

My guess is that it would be Grand Bahama area. https://carnivalgrandport.com/home This would be more of a branded experience rather than Going by Carnival Grand Port.

I saw yesterday at Carnival has registered the trademark “Funday Cay.” I’m wondering if there is an upcoming revamp of either Half Moon Cay or Princess Cay? I’ve wondered when/if Carnival would finally have its own branded island (since HMC was acquired by HAL and Princess Cays by Princess). Or - could this be the new port on Grand Bahama??

The World Dream’s auction ended 12/21. Curious to know the outcome of where she is going.

Oceania Cruises (NCLH) bought the Tahitian Princess/Ocean Princess from Princess Cruises - now sailing as Sirena. This was back in 2016.

Size vs Cost. If they wanted to pull the Magica and Fortuna over to Carnival, they would have. Those two ships would need the Sunshine Program and the cost benefit probably isn't there anymore and can get a quick cash infusion by selling rather than investing. Carnival CORP needs the cash NOW. They were clear it was two Costa Ships. My guess the third ships is either AIDAaura (2003), Carnival Elation (1998), Carnival Paradise (1998), Volendam (1999), Zaandam (2000), Aurora (2000), or Pacific Explorer (2007). I think ALL of these will leave the fleet regardless of order within 3-5 years MAX. Brian

Celestyal Cruises have stated they intend to grow as well. They have an investor involved as well - So could be AidaAura, etc.

I would say, depending how much they could get it for. I doubt it, but if the price is right and the field of bidders are all low-balling, stranger things have happened. As I’ve said before, lots of synergies with similar fleet-types. This goes for Genting Dream, World Dream, and Explorer Dream.

Gotcha - I thought they just said "retired from Carnival," meaning could have attempted a sale with another line, moved to refugee housing, etc. thank you

Hello, I haven't seen any formal announcements, but it appears the Carnival Ecstasy is headed for the breakers. Current destination is set for an arrival at Aliaga November 7th.

I agree. I mentioned on another thread, but with 10 ships across 5 classes, Costa does not have many fleet type synergies. Moving the solo Deliziosa and Diadema to Carnival leaves them with 2 destiny, 4 Concordia, and 2 Excel.

I say this tongue in cheek.... Has anyone noticed, particularly more since the reopening to cruises, that Royal Caribbean has evolved into more of the "Fun Ships" and Carnival has moved downmarket, cheaper cruises "traveling Carnival" style? The Icon of the Seas is continuing to focus on families looking for an active, premium vacation. Based on a lot of the reviews I've read from Carnival, service has deteriorated, food portions have shrunk, quality down, and more incidents in the news than I can remember with fights and disorder onboard than I can remember as of late. *DISCLAIMER* - This is not directed towards any crew - they are all very hardworking. It's the overall product that I think has changed.

I think you are spot on. Costa was over capacity as it was pre-covid and will most likely continue to reduce the allocated fleet. Since the pandemic, they've shed Victoria, neoRomantica, Luminosa, Mediterranea, and Atlantica. Soon they will release the Venezia and Firenze to Carnival as well, leaving them with 10 ships across 5 classes of ships and zero new builds. There are significant synergies from a cost perspective by having a similar fleet type. I predict you may see Fortuna & Magica (Destiny/Sunshine class ships) and/or the Deliziosa and Diadema (solo Spirit and Dream class ships, respectively) move to Carnival. Moving Deliziosa and Diadema may make sense in this synergies process since that would leave Costa with only Destiny, Conquest/Concordia, and Excellence class ships in various passenger capacities.

From a paperwork and ownership perspective, these are officially "off the books" from carnival as they have transferred to the Chinese partnership. Since China remains closed for all cruising, those ships remain out of service. I believe one of the new Chinese-built ships for that line is near completion as well. Brian

I saw that this morning as well. My guess is that you will see Fortuna transferred to another Carnival Corp brand, most likely, Carnival Cruise Line. As of right now, Magica and Serena are out of service, and Fortuna pending after the winter season with nothing announced for two more years....

Interesting indeed. Has anyone seen what percentage of FCCs for NCL have been redeemed? I believe carnival (at least Carnival cruise line proper) put an expiration on them. Maybe they are also teeing themselves up for a stronger 2023 in that sense: deplete FCCs from 2020-2022, get all ships back in service by year end (fully staffed as possible) and just close the books on a very bad year setting up 2023 with low startup costs and “free” cruise liabilities. I bring that up because when you look at Carnival Corp based on how low they have gone pricing wise, it’s literally costing them to sail each cruise on top of the interest and principle payments. I do actually agree with FDR on how they aren’t cannibalizing themselves. IF they clear 2022 and enter in 2023 as they say, I do think they can get out of this stronger, especially on stronger pricing and longer booking trends. They too just need to wrap 2022 ASAP lol

Interesting - UBS upgraded NCL from neutral to buy, including inflation adjustment. https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/finance/norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-shares-rise-ubs-upgrade-buy

I didn’t think Carnival would go this low. CCL: $6.36 CUK: $5.64 was there an agreement back in 2003 when Carnival acquired P&O Princess for how long they would remain dual listed? High level research - I read that it’s not very cost effective in recent times to continue dual listing based on annual costs. Does make sense to keep this current model, or consolidate at this point?

Per Cruiseindustrynews.com: “We thought there was a gap as we had nothing between the Jewel class at 2,400 and the Epic, Breakaway- and Breakaway-plus class ships. We thought this would be a perfect thing to fill out our portfolio,” Sommer said, noting the Prima was “97 percent perfect” and the company would make some small adjustments on the Viva when it debuts in 2023." https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/28441-harry-sommer-norwegian-prima-reimagines-the-cruise-industry.html

I just read that unconfirmed reports that Disney Cruise Line may be acquiring the massive unfinished Global Dream. Very interesting move. Anyone hear this as well?