fragilek

Has anyone hear any updates about the ship today.  Someone on the ship has posted photos of many ambulances on the dock

they have also said that only half of the infected patients were taken off the ship yesterday.  I also saw a post thanking Japan for sending medical personnel to work on the ship found this but can't verify it.

Japanese Ministry of Labour and Welfare said: “as of the evening of the 10th in the cruise, there were 29 Dispatched Medical Teams, Disaster Dispatched Psychiatric Teams and the Ministry of Defense, including 29 doctors, 18 nurses and 12 pharmacists.”

Also found this in a Japanese paper again I can't verify - saying going to let old and sick off ship - no idea what/ where they are to go and also talking about the docs and nurses going on board to (work on the ship?)

https://t.co/lIQudfuJck?amp=1

1 minute ago, caribill said:

 

Testing all of the people on the ship earlier than the end of the incubation period would not catch the cases that would have not developed to the point the test would find the virus. So testing everyone now, not just those who show symptoms, would be a waste of medical resources.

 

So the testing needs to be done at the end of the two week isolation time and that is what Japan is suggesting at this time.

 agreed it wont have caught everyone straight away- I would have thought the safest plan would have been a 3 day rolling  testing and removal of everyone who has a positive result. This would  perhaps limit any further cross contamination a lot more than may/may not be happening especially as we are now hearing the crew situation.   Yes it would have taken more resource and been expensive but may end up saving money as perhaps less people overall would need isolation and medical help.  We will never know  the answer to that, and I think the discussions over wither the isolation  and testing plan for passengers and especially the crew was optimal will go on for years.

Just being seeing some of the stuff regarding the crew both on new feeds and on their twitter pages - claiming they don't feel the crew are quarantine as they still all queue up and  eat together at their buffet side by side.  It also gave info on the sick crew stating they were mainly from dining and housekeeping.  160 Indian crew are appealing to their government and WHO to intervene.

2 hours ago, Pushka said:

Just commenting on 2. I’d say that only very seriously ill patients are now going to hospital so that may explain the change in death rate. Some report manageable symptoms, others mild and some, no symptoms at all. Just a guess really. So those might not even enter into the statistics. 

 I have managed to verify what the 20% number is - it is 20% of cases followed to completion - either cure or death- have resulted in death 

14 minutes ago, dearinger said:

 

Thank you for this! Someone at least is capable of reading the facts. 

Wow, the amount of misinformation on here is shocking. Please don't spread around a bunch of rumors unless it actually comes from a health authority. Your radio hosts and facebook posts are not a reliable source of information. 

 Agreed a lot of stuff is just speculation - I don't mind it being put on here, just a bracket to say rumor next to it would be nice.  However, some stuff that gets posted on line comes from science via journals or from those of us who worked in that field all our life.  And useful info from others - engineers, medical staff too.  Not all of it alarming sometimes it can be reassuring information that is posted (eg aircon cabin info).  It all helps to be ahead of the game - governments take action cautiously, which  I agree with them , is the only way they can without causing panic.  I bet some on here that read some info and it helped them choose to bale from HAL or Diamond sailing are now glad they did.  Some others may have used some info to feel more reassured about cruising in other regions.

On saying that it should be obvious that the info on here should never be used to go against your own governments or doctors advice. 

2 minutes ago, capriccio said:

 

Japan's chief government spokesman (in the Washington Post this morning) said:

 

Despite growing calls to test everyone on board the ship, Japan’s chief government spokesman Yoshihide Suga said on Monday that under current circumstances, that would be “difficult.”

 

There was no additional information on what the difficulties might be.

 Now that brings the next question if Japan cannot test 5000 people over a 2 week period how has Wuhan been able to get its testing done to produce its stats

Here is a link to a British broad sheet paper (not a tabloid) 3 things jump out in the article

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/10/coronavirus-news-uk-china-wuhan-virus-outbreak-latest/

1. incubation may in extreme cases be up to 3 weeks - this ties with the "super-spreader story he came back from Singapore on 24th of Jan and  by all account (though no formal statement  as such)still shows no symptoms- he contacted nhs111 only because he had been at a conference for his company in Singapore and several collages had contracted it. (he is on day 17)

2. The death rate new calculations from Wuhan are quoted as 20% (but stated as may require adjustment for non diagnosed patients) can't see where this info came from but as i said above this is a reputable paper .  I wonder if China's story is changing now WHO on route (my thoughts not anything to back those up)

3 Over the weekend, an official in Shanghai confirmed the coronavirus also travelled through aerosol transmission, which means it can float a long distance through the air and cause infection later when it is breathed in. - However, not seen this backed up by western scientist for WHO confirmation.

6 hours ago, npcl said:

In phase 1 in April basically still means you might, if everything goes well, have an available vaccine early in 2021.  There are several candidates out there.

 They may get out a bit faster as can be used off label even in extreme cases before phase III under the compassionate use release (I have been involved in the use of an anti-fungal of label ahead of phase III in a child with a  fungal brain disease which was not responding to any available drug- It worked 😊. And the drug is now licensed, but it was still a risk/ benefit hard decision for his team and family - above my pay grade thankfully! ). In the height of Ebola crisis several vaccines ( not sure but I think drugs too) got used this way -  This would not be a wide spread world vaccination program, but may get used in sporadic hot spots until more data is available.  This will obliviously depend on what WHO find as death rate/icu rate when the  get into China and if outbreak spreads more widely thus they will have more (verified data) as every drug is used on a risk/ benefit analysis. 

6 hours ago, npcl said:

From everything I have read they are still doing genetic tree tracing to determine which animal it transferred from.  However the Corona virus family is pretty widespread and common.  The last I have seen indicates that it may have emerged from a virus related to SARS which came from Civet Cats.

 40 % of domestic cats carry FCoV a type of Coronavirus that mutates  in 10% of infected animals to a more deadly form FIP of the virus that is always fatal. There is no treatment or vaccine available all trials have failed so far.  Not suggesting it has any link at all just highlighting that this virus exits in many animals we come into contact with daily so it may be some time to completely identify the cause so far a few vector are under suspicion, including  bats, snakes and the pangolin

14 minutes ago, caribill said:

a) People in the same cabin do not have to stay 3 feet from each other

b) They have been told not to wear gloves, but to wash hands thoroughly before going on deck and upon return to cabin.

There were quite a few un-linked people passing each other well within the 3 feet look at the jogging ones and how close some of the others passing each other get.  If I was out taking my air time I would be very annoyed with others coming closer than the 3 feet rule.  Looks like too many out at once to make the 3 feet rule stay easily maintained.  The only other way would have been to assign a piece of deck to each cabin - time-shared and cleaned between each owner

3 minutes ago, Outerdog said:

 

Please stop perpetuating this myth and GET EDUCATED on how the ventilation system works on ships.

 

One of the main reason that the guests are quarantined in their cabins most of the day, is that the AC in cabins is not shared or recirculated.  There are two AC systems on the ship.  One takes outside air, cools it, and supplies it to the cabins, in a one way flow.  This fresh air supplied to the cabins is almost balanced by the bathroom exhaust which takes the air to the outside, in a one way flow.  The fresh air supply is slightly greater than the exhaust to keep the cabin at a slight positive pressure relative to the outside, and to the passageway outside the cabin.  The AC controlled by the cabin thermostat is air within the cabin, that is recirculated within the cabin, passing over the individual cabin's cooler.

 

 I had read that and understand how that works for the cabin.  But how does it work for the people who are going outside for air - if you look at the video I posted - there seems to be quite a lot of them I imagine the inside cabins were quite full as always.

how is the air in corridors maintained does anyone know ?

4 minutes ago, GeezerCouple said:

In terms of the "testing those with a fever" (and checking for fever as "the" symptom)...

Is it known whether someone can be sick with this virus and NOT have a fever?

Or how long it takes from first becoming infected to have a fever (if ever), and are those  people contagious prior to having a fever (or if never getting a fever, but still infected)?

 

That's what bothers me about "testing those with fever"...

 

GC

 The most recent cases in France seem to suggest that you are able to spread it without a fever or any other symptoms.  The man came back to UK via France to ski - did not feel unwell or have fever now a further 6 have been infected  in France and UK by this man before he had any symptoms.  In fact it appears he was contacted after a someone in his business meeting in Singapore tested positive

1 minute ago, elliair said:

What is the most puzzling is that there have been no reports on the testing of animal samples collected in any epicenters in Wuhan, especially at the Huanan seafood market, to identify what animals might be the host or intermediate hosts of this novel Wuhan coronavirus.

 

An Animal Origin of the Virus

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mysterious-origin-wuhan-coronavirus

 

 

 I think the boat was missed in this by the time China admitted there was an issue.  Not even sure if the market had been "legitimized"- if you could ever call it that before the world outside even knew about the issue.

I believe this is from on the ship earlier today- not confirmed

Just heard that 5 of the 6 were crew members - This info has not been confirmed by Japaneses authority 

As far as I can find out the additional confirmed cases come from a new round of testing of 57 passengers - no reason give why these new 57 were chosen

https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_09405.html

2 minutes ago, Pushka said:

Not entirely. I think the bat is a vector. 

Think it will be another few months before they will be able to say for sure.  Either way improvements will have to be made somehow in the supply chain (if you can call it that) to try and hinder future outbreaks.

on TV news in Japan

9th morning on TV Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare Kato said that it will consider taking samples and testing all passengers and crews of about 3,700 people who will land on the 19th, checking the situation.

 Number of cases on the princess now stands at 70- Not heard anything yet to suggest change to isolation end date 

21 minutes ago, Skoobdo said:

Probably from bat feces in unsanitary market conditions.

 That's now been disputed disputed by scientist in the west as they have more time to study the virus- the culprit now thought more likely to be  the pangolin

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/pangolins-might-have-spread-coronavirus-to-humans

16 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

Do we know this to be true?  Obviously there are crew members who are out and about preparing and delivering food and maintaining the essential operations of the ship.  (I assume, (or at least hope) that these people have tested negative.)  But do we know for sure that "non-essential" crew members are not in quarantine?  Not saying you are wrong.  But I haven't heard or seen anything that addresses this so I can't cite to a source.  Seems to me that the folks who work in the gift shop who could have come in contact with an infected person either on this cruise or the one before it have just as much reason and need to be quarantined as anyone else, and since no one is visiting the gift shops, why not initiate preventive measures.  Of course, confining them to their quarters would be pretty much like putting someone in a prison cell.  But I'm not sure what the alternative is.   If I were in charge, I would test the crew members first, and get the sick ones off the ship and then allow the healthy ones to run the ship.  But until they tested negative, they'd be quarantined same as the guests.  While it is true that from a public relations standpoint, the "passengers come first."  But in reality, if you want to nip this in the bud, it is the crew that has to be proven healthy as they are the "constants" that will come in contact with wave after wave of guests from now into the foreseeable future. 

 I showed a picture earlier on the thread that showed the crew mingling outside with their masks off  (some to smoke)- not showing it again as some seemed irked that I posted it so look back on the thread.  Not sure if that photo shows not flowing quarantine or not -but it did kind of seem strange to me

11 minutes ago, Cindy said:

According to the most recent HAL update, they do not have any confirmed or suspected cases of Corona Virus on board:

 

Westerdam Update:
Westerdam is currently sailing on a southwesterly course off the coast of Taiwan to best position the ship to access potential port locations where we can disembark our guests.  We are evaluating several options and working with different governments for a swift resolution. 
 
Guests on board continue to be safe and well cared for. The ship is not in quarantine and we have no reason to believe there are any cases of coronavirus on board despite media reports. The ship has sufficient fuel and food provisions to last until the end of the voyage. We are providing free internet and phone access for guests and crew to stay in contact with their loved ones. Guests have been provided a full refund and a future cruise credit.
 
This is a very dynamic situation as we continue to manage around evolving and changing restrictions in the region. We sincerely thank our guests and crew on Westerdam — and their loved ones — for their patience during this extraordinary time.
 
The latest information will continue to be posted under the News & Travel Advisory section of our website: http://*****/2va2gxX

 

 they could never have a confirmed case of the virus- only a handful of labs are licensed to undertake this test.   No ship can do this test.  All they can truly say is that no-one is displaying any symptoms . Royal are awaiting tests coming back from Atlanta (so even although New York hospitals have the test kits now conformation of results from CDC still released via Atlanta, I don't even know if the tests in other areas are even being used yet, may be for preliminary results - not sure) .  

5 minutes ago, rsato said:

Does anyone understand (or have heard) why Japan allowed the Diamond Princess to port with now 64 confirmed coronavirus cases but does not allow the HAL Westerdam with supposedly one patient with suspected (not confirmed) coronavirus cases to dock? Both ships were on Japanese itineraries with many Japanese nationals and had recent stops in Hong Kong.

 I have only heard on social media sites - so take this with as many pinches of salt as you want - i am - it is said to be something to do with Hal picking up passengers in HK after the date Japan had said no HK/ china entry - Or not who knows

When the Sars outbreak to place our closets friends were coming up to visit us in Scotland from England. He is from Hong Kong - 40 yrs ago (went through school in Oban with my DH).  Their intention after visiting us was to drive over to east coast of Scotland to also visit his parents.  His parents, who had not been back to Hong Kong in decades stopped the visit.  They said living within the Chinese community had exposed them to risk as many undocumented people lived with this community.  They did not want their grandchildren near the risk. I assume avoidance of a situation like this that has set the bar at an abundance of caution.

2 hours ago, caribill said:

 

Seems like an over-reaction to me, denying boarding based on what a passport is from, not where the person has actually been.

 

A Chinese national who has been in the USA with a visa or green card for several years would be denied boarding.

 When the Sars outbreak to place our closets friends were coming up to visit us in Scotland from England. He is from Hong Kong - 40 yrs ago (went through school in Oban with my DH).  Their intention after visiting us was to drive over to east coast of Scotland to also visit his parents.  His parents, who had not been back to Hong Kong in decades stopped the visit.  They said living within the Chinese community had exposed them to risk as many undocumented people lived with this community.  They did not want their grandchildren near the risk. I assume avoidance of a situation like this that has set the bar at an abundance of caution.