Hurricane Emily

[EVALUATOR]

NOAA early forecasts show Hurricane Emily off Ft Lauderdale around 2 P.M. Saturday.

 

That might really mess up Oasis/Allure cruises this weekend.:eek:

 

Here is a link

[AlanAllyn]

Some quotes from the National Hurricane Center discussion of Tropical Storm Emily:

 

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.

 

THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON WHAT SHAPE EMILY IS IN AFTER IT MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA

[EVALUATOR]

Some quotes from the National Hurricane Center discussion of Tropical Storm Emily:

 

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.

 

THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON WHAT SHAPE EMILY IS IN AFTER IT MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA

 

I agree, it's early. But I would think some living near you are at least monitoring it.

 

Emily being anywhere near that area on a Sat/Sun can't bode well for travel via land, air, or sea.

[FTLcruisers]

It is way too early to predict on a Monday where a tropical storm will be on Saturday.

[Aquahound]

One thing I learned a long time ago is, if you are in the center of the forcast track a week out, you are completely safe. The track is always shifting and over the next few days, this track will shift one way or the other. I watch tropical storms like a hawk because of how vulnerable my Keys property can be to them. My fear is it will shift west, which is very possible.

 

For clarification, it is only Tropical Storm Emily. Let's hope the Puerto Rican and Hispaniolan mountains keep it that way.

[ekatiel]

One thing I learned a long time ago is, if you are in the center of the forcast track a week out, you are completely safe.

 

LOL!! That's been my experience, too ;). In 2006, everyone was SURE Rita was going to hit us (Galveston/Houston) directly-- so sure that we all evacuated and created the worst traffic jam in history. No direct hit then. Of course, IKE, which wasn't supposed to hit us directly, did. :eek: At any rate, it is too early to tell what Emily will do. --Katie

[libertybelle41]

Great . We're flying into Ft. Lauderdale on Sat:eek: and leaving on Allure on Sunday....I know you take the chance of this happening when you cruise during hurricane season, but I can still get nervous...yikes:o

 

Any advice on what to do now (or the closer it gets) will be very much appreciated....It'll just be my luck:(

[FTLCruiseGal]

Great . We're flying into Ft. Lauderdale on Sat:eek: and leaving on Allure on Sunday....I know you take the chance of this happening when you cruise during hurricane season, but I can still get nervous...yikes:o

 

Any advice on what to do now (or the closer it gets) will be very much appreciated....It'll just be my luck:(

 

Depends on what time your flight is due to land. The earlier the better as IF it hits, it is supposed to be around 2PM. Airports still operate during tropical storms. They shut down when winds get too high (can't remember the exact number, but I don't think Emily will get there).

 

Last night, it was due to be a hurricane by the time it got to South Florida. This morning, only supposed to be a tropical storm, and it has shifted north.

 

I wouldn't worry at all.

[Mark_K]

NOAA early forecasts show Hurricane Emily off Ft Lauderdale around 2 P.M. Saturday.

 

That might really mess up Oasis/Allure cruises this weekend.:eek:

 

Here is a link

The forecast I see at the link does not show Emily to be a Hurricane at any time, either your post is mistaken or they've downgraded the forecast since you wrote it.

[cruiseguymfr]

Forecasts change as do the numerical weather prediction models that are used for hurricane forecasting (GFDL, GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, to name a few models). The average error for a hurricane track out on day 5 is 250 miles.

[Shekim]

LOL!! That's been my experience, too ;). In 2006, everyone was SURE Rita was going to hit us (Galveston/Houston) directly-- so sure that we all evacuated and created the worst traffic jam in history. No direct hit then. Of course, IKE, which wasn't supposed to hit us directly, did. :eek: At any rate, it is too early to tell what Emily will do. --Katie

Amen, sister! We got caught in that...on the road 14 hours and made it to Old Town Spring. We live in Friendswood which was/is mandatory evacuation. We ended up coming back home (took us 45 minutes!) and "rode" it out. hahahaha; got some wind and very little rain. And Ike, we went to Austin. Came back 2 days after landfall...needless to say I wish we could have stayed away until power was restored. Oh well; I'd still rather live in a hurricane area vs tornado alley.

[tropicbird]

Most of the reliable forecast models are not bringing Emily to hurricane status, so "Hurricane Emily" is something that we may very well never see this year.

 

However, if the intensity forecasts are wrong, note the comment above where the poster chuckles that being in the center of the track forecast is a great place to be since the storm will in all liklihood go somewhere else.

 

It's way too early to be overly concerned. And remember, a tropical storm is, in many, many cases, just something for the media to hype. Generally they are pretty tame. Major hurricanes, certainly another matter.

[ali3pt14]

This thread got me thinking...

 

We've booked a cruise on FOS in September. I've read that most of the time, in the event of a hurricane, your cruise isn't cancelled, but it may change itinerary.

 

Worst case scenario, if an actual hurricane was making landfall at or near your port on the day you were scheduled to sail...

 

Is it possible that you could be required to change embarkation ports? Do they do that? Could they change your 7 day cruise to a 6 (or 5 or 4) day cruise?

 

What has happened in the past?

[Aquahound]

Is it possible that you could be required to change embarkation ports? Do they do that? Could they change your 7 day cruise to a 6 (or 5 or 4) day cruise?

 

What has happened in the past?

 

Yes, these things have happened in the past, and in most cases, the cruise lines have been good at providing compensation and transportation. However, with Oasis, the choices are very limited with embarkation ports. In fact, I'm not sure another port can be used. If a hurricane were to make landfall on Saturday, Oasis would likely stay at sea another day, lengthening the previous cruise. The following cruise would be shortened and have an altered itinerary.

[ali3pt14]

;) Thank you for such a speedy answer!

[north29]

and other weekend cruises to the Bahamas will be effected and they have no where to run. At least the cruises out of Ft Lauderdale and Miami can go south and west and skirt around Key West, and to calmer seas there, but it will be rough out there. That is if they decide to leave port when she comes to the closest range.

We folks here in central Florida are hoping for RAIN, with a little wind would be ok, but feel for those who book on that week.

It will be interesting to see what RC decides to do if the worse case scenario happens.

[EVALUATOR]

The forecast I see at the link does not show Emily to be a Hurricane at any time, either your post is mistaken or they've downgraded the forecast since you wrote it.

 

Emily was predicted to reach Hurricane force with the first forecast.

 

They lowered the top speed wind estimates to 60 mph for Saturday morning (70 mph for Sunday but just north of Canaveral).

 

They moved the track about 15 miles further east.

 

However, the current projected path and speeds still put it just off Ft Lauderdale at 2PM Saturday with tropical force winds.

 

This link is to the NWS Hurricane map. In the select advisory drop down you can click on earlier advisories and see if and how the path and intensity forecasts change.

 

Port Everglades would close for tropical force winds, not just a hurricane.

[FLHugh]

Another useful site is www(dot)hwn(dot)org. Click on "Atlantic" then under "TS Emily" click on Graphics to see a very detailed map of the potential path.

[pcur]

Great . We're flying into Ft. Lauderdale on Sat:eek: and leaving on Allure on Sunday....I know you take the chance of this happening when you cruise during hurricane season, but I can still get nervous...yikes:o

 

Any advice on what to do now (or the closer it gets) will be very much appreciated....It'll just be my luck:(

 

Go anyway. We have sailed in tropical storms so many times I can't even remember how often. Our very first cruise out of Miami in 1973 we had to be PULLED out of the harbor because a hurricane (low level, but high winds) was hitting Miami.

 

RCCL are masters at dealing with this kind of thing. If they can get out of that port, then they boogie as fast as they can where the storm ain't happening! If they can't then they will offer you a trade on another cruise, but since it's a tropical storm now, I think your chances are good it will be OK.

[libertybelle41]

I know it's to early to predict things, but wonder if we should hassle with trying to change our flight from Texas (due into Ft. Lauderdale Sat afternoon 3pm-ish) to leave on Fri? if that's even possible this late.....or maybe I should just relax and breathe:eek:

[libertybelle41]

Go anyway. We have sailed in tropical storms so many times I can't even remember how often. Our very first cruise out of Miami in 1973 we had to be PULLED out of the harbor because a hurricane (low level, but high winds) was hitting Miami.

 

RCCL are masters at dealing with this kind of thing. If they can get out of that port, then they boogie as fast as they can where the storm ain't happening! If they can't then they will offer you a trade on another cruise, but since it's a tropical storm now, I think your chances are good it will be OK.

 

 

Oh absolutely we are all still very excited, problem is I worry about getting to Ft. Lauderdale. Our flight is set to arrive 3pm-ish on Sat afternoon:eek:

[oasis1970]

I cannot stop watching the weather channel! We are leaving

Boston at 7am and arrive in Miami about 10:30 on Saturday. We then have a

shuttle to Ft. Lauderdale to get on the Oasis. I told my husband

I want to change my flight to Friday to get down there! Am I panicking

too much?! I need this vacation!!

[pcur]

Oh absolutely we are all still very excited, problem is I worry about getting to Ft. Lauderdale. Our flight is set to arrive 3pm-ish on Sat afternoon:eek:

 

Even if this tropical storm becomes just a nasty storm by the time it reaches Ft. Lauderdale, it could mean flight delays, and traffic could be a problem, too. Getting from the airport to the cruise port is a really short drive, but the traffic getting into the port entrance could be pretty nasty.

 

I would definitely book a hotel and go in on Friday. Just the thought of a 3PM flight arrival on a bad weather day makes me jittery. You can go over to the ship whenever you want on Saturday, and not have to worry about the weather that much.

[orville99]

Oh absolutely we are all still very excited, problem is I worry about getting to Ft. Lauderdale. Our flight is set to arrive 3pm-ish on Sat afternoon:eek:

 

The more easterly the track, the smaller the issue. TS force winds generally only extend out a short distance from the center of the storm, and the strongest winds are in the northeast quadrant of the storm. So if it continues on its current track, the strongest wind fields will be well away from (and quite a bit north of) the port. Florida experiences 30-40 mph winds routinely (almost daily in the summer), so unless the storm is on a bead to hit the airport dead on, flights should not be a problem. A bit bumpy perhaps...

[minnie00]

I cannot stop watching the weather channel! We are leaving

Boston at 7am and arrive in Miami about 10:30 on Saturday. We then have a

shuttle to Ft. Lauderdale to get on the Oasis. I told my husband

I want to change my flight to Friday to get down there! Am I panicking

too much?! I need this vacation!!

 

I have so been here before...just wait it out...if the airlines offer flight changes THEN maybe you can change your flights...because they don't usually charge you then.

 

so just wait a few more days....if the storm is going to hit the port the ship may not go as scheduled anyway. give it some time...

 

this storm may veer off more in either direction....

 

I obsess on a few websites before every cruise...here are some links for you...if you anal like me you will enjoy them..:)

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

 

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/