Impact on Carnival?

[KaththeTaff]

I don't think there can be any doubt that, in the short term at least and outside of the online cruise community and message boards, there will be a lot of people who will be very dubious about taking a cruise this year. I think there will be quite a few cancellations.

 

I think there will be a huge impact on the Cosat brand. I think that the impact on Carnival will be much less; after all, how many people with little or no interest in the industry actually know that Carnival owns Costa? All most people will see from the news reports is that a cruise shi[ has sunk. Regardless of the conclusions of the investigations and inquiries, there is bound to be an increased perception that cruising is not safe.

[sirobin171]

This could cause a "reset" in the industry. Carnival's impact will depend how much they distant themselves from the Costa brand.

 

The accident is STILL shady in my mind - sailing the wrong route, too close to land, and captain abandoning ship.

 

That smells of something suspicious (not to use sabotage or terrorism lightly, but Italy *is* in trouble and using the Egypt Air example, captains have been known to do this in the past).

 

The fact that they did not do muster drills on time, had poor emergency procedures, and screwed the passengers with no clothes or money - will greatly hurt Costa.

 

I have been on Concordia, they also did the muster drill in Savona wen I was onboard in 09. They have 24 hours to do it from the time you board.

[G.M.T.]

The fact that they did not do muster drills on time.

 

Costa does Muster Drill in accordance with international law, which states that it has to be done within 24 hours of the ship leaving port.

 

Ron

[Freecall]

We should get an early indication of reaction when markets open on Monday but the full impact will take time to come through.

 

.

[sylmack]

This incident has brought fully home to me the concept of all ship's announcements being made in 5 different languages. Thanks - but I will pass on that.

 

 

Barry

 

You've posted this comment on other threads.

 

Are you suggesting that announcements be made in English only ? A language the majority of passengers on Concordia do not understand ?

 

You better stick to English-only cruises, in order to stay away from them-there foreigners.

[BlondeKajun]

I think the biggest impact will be the loss of first-time cruisers. My sister has been somewhat reluctant to cruise & had finally decided to give it a try this year.....yesterday she cancelled. It will not deter me although it will make me more safety conscious.

[Oh Yes]

Well what else can you say after hearing first comments from the passengers and authorities?

 

Ship was miles away from it is right course before the crash.

 

When the crash happend personnel told passengers it is just a technical fault and same went on nearly 45 minutes.

 

Some of the personnel told passengers go their cabins and another ones to muster stations.

 

According Italian authorities captain didn't make mayday call.

 

Personnel didn't know how to operate safety boats.

 

And captain abandoded ship before all passengers were safe.

 

To me those things sound bad seamanship and neglecting passenger safety. Lets just hope that isn't policy in all Costa Cruise ships.

 

Exact, is assumption. The VDR has been recovered and when the investigation will be completed the truth will come out.

As of now, all is speculation.

[gtalum]

Very little aside from a devaluation of CCL stock. Each line under Carnival Corp. is a separate corporation, and I'd be shocked if they haven't "ring-fenced" each one to keep liabilities from one affecting the others. I wouldn't be shocked if this is effectively the end of Costa, though.

 

It may be a great time to buy CCL in the next few weeks.

[Freecall]

I think that the impact will be considerably grater than some suggest. Although 1 of 100 ships would suggest 1% the Concordia was both larger and newer than average.

 

The real hit will be if Carnival are unable to distance themselves from Costa and need to dissolve the brand.

 

As I said before, the markets should start to give us a feel when they open on Monday.

 

.

[Aplmac]

It will not deter me although it will make me more safety conscious.

Wife informs me we are buying a pair of new Mag-Lites for our next cruise!! :D

 

I think she has a point! ;)

 

I'm also guessing there will be a lot more attention paid at Muster Drills, after this!

.

[gtalum]

I think that the impact will be considerably grater than some suggest. Although 1 of 100 ships would suggest 1% the Concordia was both larger and newer than average.

 

The real hit will be if Carnival are unable to distance themselves from Costa and need to dissolve the brand.

 

As I said before, the markets should start to give us a feel when they open on Monday.

 

.

 

There's no doubt that CCL stock will take a hit tomorrow. Remember, the ship is fully insured. I wouldn't be surprised if they bankrupt Costa, but Carnival Corp. as a whole will emerge unscathed beyond stock price, and even that will heal pretty quickly IMHO.

[2wallace]

Looks like the right time to do a short sell.

 

You do a short sell when stock goes up, you buy when it goes down.. I'll be buying :)

[Dave0311]

If the Costa brand were to dissolve (again, just speculation), what would happen to the rest of the Costa ships? Would they sell them? Transfer them to CCL since the two lines share a lot of the same classes of ships? That would definitely be an interesting outcome.

 

In my opinion though, I don't think the Costa brand will be dissolved, unless there's some longer term brand damage that makes it financially unviable.

[soonerfanatic]

We were booked on this cruise leaving Civitavechia on 1/27/12.

 

I have spent 4 hours on the phone and Costa has offered a refund and 30% off a future cruise.

 

Now we have had to make many alternative travel arrangements within a 2 week window and subject to higher fares.

 

What a poor offer, 30% off a future cruise?. No incentive for me to ever book with Costa, more of an incentive to avoid.

[macfin]

It just seems reading all of posts on here, and one of special interest form a woman from australia who posted in Concordia Survivor here in cc, that Costa or parent Carnival has done nothing to help get any of these people relief, accoridn to her post " they were dumped in a hotel room in Rome, with the clothes on there back and no money or help to make travel arrangements", they (this is from her) have basically left them on their own, the Costa rep had left the hotel and not returned, she had to contact the Australian Embassy for help....it seems that this is the Norm, having heard numerous news accounts from the American on board that theytoo had to contact themselves and make arrangements....This is what will hurt the brand the most, if Costa had come out and said or dealt with the "problems" of the aftermath with people...than maybe they would be able to save face...MY OPINION....

[vincentharris]

Just curious to know what the impact of this accident will be on the parent and the other lines of the Carnival family.

 

Nothing, there are a lot of people at work in Miami this weekend, making sure that in the public they (Costa) are completely on there own, and Carnival has nothing to do with this company.

[Mrs. Wilburforce]

I agree with your speculation on the impact. But I've noticed something else that has been very repetitious in the news accounts. They all emphasize the number of people on board the ship. To a regular cruiser, this information is routine and we don't really react knowing that 4000 people on a ship pales in comparison to the number of passengers on other cruise ships, the Allure and Oasis to be more precise.

The question in my mind is will this incident affect the decision making of first time cruisers? Will they think twice about boarding ships with thousands of passengers? Will the market shift toward smaller ships, which may give the average consumer a feeling of more security?

I'm just speculating. I don't have a bias against large ships, but I do wonder if prospective passengers reading and/or hearing "4000" passengers will drive some people away from megaships. I don't believe it would be a lasting trend, however it may be something people consider in the short term.

 

 

I think the biggest impact will be the loss of first-time cruisers. My sister has been somewhat reluctant to cruise & had finally decided to give it a try this year.....yesterday she cancelled. It will not deter me although it will make me more safety conscious.

[SelectSys]

So it looks like the impacts I see above are:

 

1) A short-term financial impact due to reduced sales and liability

2) Possible mid-term impact to the Costa brand due to the incident

3) First time cruisers make think twice before booking

4) Hopefully some new improved safety practices

5) Perhaps a passenger preference for smaller ships

[Aplmac]

To a regular cruiser, this information is routine

and we don't really react knowing that 4000 people on a ship

pales in comparison to the number of passengers on other cruise ships,

the Allure and Oasis to be more precise.

Those two behemoths carry anything like 5,400 to 6,296 passengers

depending on whether all berths are full -or not.

 

 

Let's add crew(2,164 of them) to the number of souls on board

and we come up with a possible Absolute Maximum Total of 8,460

 

Let me spell that out for you: eight thousand, four hundred and sixty frantic people

-all scrambling for life! :)

 

 

As we speak, Royal Caribbean is making bl**dy sure nothing happens on their ships!! ;)

[Mrs. Wilburforce]

That's what I really wanted to say but was afraid of being flamed:eek:

Everything you've just said has been something I've been thinking since this terrible disaster happened.

And you're numbers are more precise. Lesson learned. Never round down ;)

 

Those two behemoths carry anything like 5,400 to 6,296 passengers

depending on whether all berths are full -or not.

 

 

Let's add crew(2,164 of them) to the number of souls on board

and we come up with a possible Absolute Maximum Total of 8,460

 

Let me spell that out for you: eight thousand, four hundred and sixty frantic people

-all scrambling for life! :)

 

 

As we speak, Royal Caribbean is making bl**dy sure nothing happens on their ships!! ;)

[bazzaw]

Costa does Muster Drill in accordance with international law, which states that it has to be done within 24 hours of the ship leaving port.

 

Ron

 

The Law is an ass!!!! - Charles Dickens

 

 

Barry

[gtalum]

As a frequent Carnival cruiser who doesn't yet own the stock, I hope this drives down cruise fares and the stock price. :)

[bazzaw]

You've posted this comment on other threads.

 

Are you suggesting that announcements be made in English only ? A language the majority of passengers on Concordia do not understand ?

 

You better stick to English-only cruises, in order to stay away from them-there foreigners.

 

No - I am suggesting what you are suggesting. I Like "foreigners" -- even Americans :D -- but any cruise where announcements are made in 5 languages would, for me, be highly undesirable and frankly, even dangerous.

 

 

Barry

[Boy Blue]

No - I am suggesting what you are suggesting. I Like "foreigners" -- even Americans :D -- but any cruise where announcements are made in 5 languages would, for me, be highly undesirable and frankly, even dangerous.

 

 

Barry

 

Not ever been a problem to me

[kruzerci]

There will be a big financial loss and the negativity that will steer new cruisers fom cruising. Obviously there will be a plunge of CCL stock on Tuesday.

 

This could be industry wide.