Best time to Book Air

[gubby]

I have read conflicting advice on when to book air. Some say when the new fares are first released, others say 3-4 months before the flight. I realize that both pieces may be correct depending on the time of year and destination, but would like some clarification . We have booked an Adriatic cruise roundtrip from Barcelona for October 2013. This will be preceeded by a Bermuda cruise roundtrip from Boston the week before we would want to fly to Barcelona. I have started to look at dummy bookings in order to get some idea of fares, knowing we cannot book until around Thanksgiving of this year. However, I can get an idea of when the best fares appear. We would fly 1 way from YYZ-BOS, then BOS-BAR-YYZ. Any ideas you frequent flyers and air experts have would be greatly appreciated.

[Gardyloo]

I have read conflicting advice on when to book air. Some say when the new fares are first released, others say 3-4 months before the flight. I realize that both pieces may be correct depending on the time of year and destination, but would like some clarification . We have booked an Adriatic cruise roundtrip from Barcelona for October 2013. This will be preceeded by a Bermuda cruise roundtrip from Boston the week before we would want to fly to Barcelona. I have started to look at dummy bookings in order to get some idea of fares, knowing we cannot book until around Thanksgiving of this year. However, I can get an idea of when the best fares appear. We would fly 1 way from YYZ-BOS, then BOS-BAR-YYZ. Any ideas you frequent flyers and air experts have would be greatly appreciated.

Well, first, there's no hard and fast rule. Anybody who says definitively that "XXX is the best time" is blowing smoke. The airlines set prices according to a very complex process that takes into account the specific city pairs, historic demand characteristics, competition on the route or parts of the route, the price of fuel, and on and on. These all get put into a witches' brew called "revenue management" and out come fares, schedules, equipment decisions, and so on. To the extent that some of the airlines' cost elements are uncertain eleven months out, in particular the price of fuel, they're likely to hedge on pricing so as to insure they don't lose money later (such as by selling seats too cheaply then having oil prices spike in the meantime.) On the other hand, by having you pay early, they get the use of your money for those months, which meant a lot more when that "float" was able to earn something in return, i.e. when interest rates were higher than nothing.

 

So you need to choose -the security of knowing you've got your seats and can turn your attention to other things, albeit running the risk that you overpaid; or waiting for the grass to be greener, knowing that at some point before the flight date all the cheap seats will be gone and only pricier options left. It's a bit like trying to time the stock market, or maybe more like Dirty Harry's question.

 

Myself, I would never pay for a ticket that far out. First, in my experience the "fuel hedge" thing above is too often the case - the airlines play CYA early on, then tend to drop prices some months before the flight date, when enough of the uncertainties mentioned above (oil, competition, global economy, Hogwarts admissions for revenue management personnel, etc.) have been reduced or eliminated.

 

October is past the peak demand period for economy seats across the Atlantic, and in fact your itinerary is an excellent one to use frequent flyer miles for, if you have them or can obtain them cheaply. If you want to travel in business class, however, October is when prices tend to go up (mid-summer is always the cheapest time for business class transatlantic, owing to the falloff in business travel during the northern summer.)

 

So bottom line, go with your gut, depending on your comfort level with uncertainty. For me, I'd wait probably until at least March of next year before buying a ticket (and probably later) for October travel.

[gubby]

Thanks for your thoughts, gardyloo. I will continue to look at the prices and know that there will not be a panic to book when the flights first come out. As long as I keep track of pricing, I will know when they start trending one way or another. We have no FF miles so will need to pay the whole shot. Prices on my dummy bookings don't seem too bad as we must fly in and out of YYZ and as Canucks are used to higher taxes. Perhaps I will look at Ottawa as well. The taxes are offset in that we can park at a friend's place so parking fees are nill.

[mitsugirly]

Since you are just checking in to things, try looking at the difference on the prices over a weekend versus doing your booking on a Tuesday or Wednesday for your date. There has been research and reports that stated that the airlines tend to raise the prices on air flights during the weekends because most people are home from work on the weekends and looking for air flight during those times. Then they tend to lower the prices down mid-week.

 

Over the last 3 years, I have kind of monitored this when booking our flights for cruises and other things and found that yes indeed, we would find the same price for the same date we needed it for was definitely lower during mid-week. :D

[Cruise Junky]

Just monitor. Anything can happen with prices. When we were pricing air for this September, there was a great sale in November and then again about 2 months ago and prices were within $20 of each other. So neither of what you heard are right or wrong. It can be both!

[gubby]

Thanks all for the advice. I am continuing to look and will check the sales when I see them. I try to book for a Tuesday or Wednesday, but have not consciously looked at the prices posted on these days as opposed to a weekend. It sure does make sense tho'. Wouldn't we all just love to have an accurate crystal ball, or win a lottery so none of this would matter!

[em-sk]

Thanks all for the advice. I am continuing to look and will check the sales when I see them. I try to book for a Tuesday or Wednesday, but have not consciously looked at the prices posted on these days as opposed to a weekend. It sure does make sense tho'. Wouldn't we all just love to have an accurate crystal ball, or win a lottery so none of this would matter!

 

On the Air Canada site, select the "Special Offers" tab. In recent years if they are running seat sales, sometimes they do them with promo codes that you have to use to get the discount. Similar things can occur with the other airlines.

[skf]

We would advise not to bother looking for a particular date range. It usually works well when you keep looking & see a fare that looks reasonable. Grab that one & be happy.

Steve