LACK of Fall Hawaii Itineraries... ??

[mikjr]

I just checked the Princess website and was surprised to see very little activity to Hawaii in the Fall, 2014.

 

What happened?? NO Star Princess... only the Grand... and only one sailing date out of Los Angeles, and that's in December.

 

Anyone have any idea why the limited itineraries out of Southern California?

[Luvmyrotti]

I just checked the Princess website and was surprised to see very little activity to Hawaii in the Fall, 2014.

 

What happened?? NO Star Princess... only the Grand... and only one sailing date out of Los Angeles, and that's in December.

 

Anyone have any idea why the limited itineraries out of Southern California?

 

I've been wondering the same thing. We'd like to do Hawaii in the fall and Princess is offering very little. Since moving the Sapphire to Asia and trying out the short itineraries with the crown, the availability of Hawaii itineraries for Princess has gone way down.

[helenb]

We're booked on a holiday cruise from SF to Hawaii in December. IIRC, there was a Grand holiday cruise out of LA to Hawaii during roughly the same dates?

[mikjr]

I've been wondering the same thing. We'd like to do Hawaii in the fall and Princess is offering very little. Since moving the Sapphire to Asia and trying out the short itineraries with the crown, the availability of Hawaii itineraries for Princess has gone way down.

 

We have taken an annual Fall cruise to Hawaii for the past 6 years.. they were always back to back starting in September... now... ZIP!! bummer!

[Pam in CA]

I think part of the reason is the Sapphire going to Japan so that's the loss of a ship and number of West Coast cruises. It's possible that Princess might re-position another ship to the West Coast but as always, "follow the money."

[hpeabody]

I am booked out of LA (San Pedro) on the Crown 28 day cruise Oct 18th, 2014 to Hawaii, then on to the Samoas and French Polynesia and back to LA (San Pedro) I will probably wish it was the Sapphire, but will make the best of it.

 

So for those who have the time and extra money (UGH!) this is a fall option

[Sillyjilly]

Looks like she's doing 10 day Mex Riv cruises in between Hawaii. Still a nice B2B:)

[runnerodb83]

I could be wrong, but i have a feeling the hawaiian 15 day itineraries arent making much money.

[Cruisin' Chick]

Looks like she's doing 10 day Mex Riv cruises in between Hawaii. Still a nice B2B:)

 

For me, that would be a stay on the ship for ten days and not get off in port type of cruise.:(

 

We've done the Hawaiian itinerary three times and really enjoyed it (of course, the Ensenada day was a stay-on-the-ship day, too).

[cr8tiv1]

My un-named reliable source (can chime in at any time) and I had a recent discussion about next season's Hawaii cruises. I was told that the Star and the Grand were switching ports, neither would be doing full time sailings to the islands, and "coastals" would be scattered between cruises. I am not sure how this will impact the Hawaiiana Cultural experience that Princess has worked so hard to develop.

 

I am deeply saddened by this change, but I am sure there were numbers crunched. Last night, I had another discussion with a most traveled passenger (top 3 on Hawaii cruises) who said that the Hawaii voyages are the least expensive of most cruises. You can spend less than a thousand for a 15 day voyage in an interior stateroom.

 

I hope that Princess will reconsider. One of the main reasons for doing the Hawaii trip is that there is so much Hawaiiana offered during those 10 wonderful sea days. Not to mention that the state benefits with the additional tourists.

 

DIsplaced Local Girl

[RickEk]

I do think there was a perception of oversaturation on the Hawaiian cruises. There were a few times last year when they had three ships doing the 15-day itineraries concurrently.

[cr8tiv1]

I do think there was a perception of oversaturation on the Hawaiian cruises. There were a few times last year when they had three ships doing the 15-day itineraries concurrently.

 

It also happened this season with the Grand out of San Francisco, and the Star and occasionally the Sapphire going to Hawaii out of San Pedro.

[Sillyjilly]

For me' date=' that would be a stay on the ship for ten days and not get off in port type of cruise.:(

 

We've done the Hawaiian itinerary three times and really enjoyed it (of course, the Ensenada day was a stay-on-the-ship day, too).[/quote']

 

You have to stay on the ship any ways during your 10 days at sea. :D

[helenb]

It could also be that they want more of these cruises doing back to back, so they are alternating cruise types in between.

[Cruisin' Chick]

You have to stay on the ship any ways during your 10 days at sea. :D

 

But at least in the middle of those, there's Hawaii. To me, there's a major difference between being on the open sea doing all sorts of fun sea day activities and being on board, docked in Mexico.

[Carla3]

I was thrilled to see the Grand sailing to Hawaii out of Vancouver in October 2014. Living in BC I like the fact that I don't have to travel far to go on this cruise. Ship must be selling well, as all the suites are gone and no price reductions on other cabins. I can see being an annual trip for me if they keep itinerary

[Loonbeam]

The number they look at is called net revenue per passenger berth, which consists of three positive and 2 negative numbers:

 

1> Cabin revenue

2> Onboard Spend

3> Ancilliary Spend (for example, Princess Insurance purchased by passengers, BVE, pre-purchased gifts)

4> Direct marketing/sales spend - commissions and promos paid to travel agents, special rate deals offered, OBC offered, etc.

5> Operating costs (fuel, food, staff specifically related to the ship)

 

After a given run is closed 1,2 and 3 are added, 4 and 5 are subtracted and the total is divided by the number of berths on the ship (NOT the actual souls on board - that's a different calculation).

 

This number ends up telling them what they can reasonable expect to make or not make on a future sailing at the same general time of year.

 

If that number is not high enough? No repeats.

 

I can see Hawaii being problematic as a regular run because of the large travel distance and fuel burn as opposed to number of ports. A good portion of revenue comes from shore excursions (that #2 category above). Yes, more sea days means more spa revenue, etc, but also more food costs and fuel burned (they burn very little fuel in port). Add in some ports that are often missed due to sea conditions (less excursions again!) and I can see where the netrev is fairly low for that run. Reducing the number of sailings will reduce capacity and thus result in higher cabin prices.

 

(In the interest of full disclosure, I learned this while trying to find out if Disney would return to NYC but I have been assured all lines use a similar system for high level analysis, with minor variances.)

[KruzPrincess]

I think Princess decided they were discounting these cruises too much and not making much onboard from all the repeat passengers.

[crystalspin]

@ loonbeam

 

(in the interest of full disclosure, i learned this while trying to find out if disney would return to nyc but i have been assured all lines use a similar system for high level analysis, with minor variances.)

 

Interesting!

Edited January 7, 2014 by crystalspin

[Loonbeam]

It makes sense. I am sure the specifics and emphasis may vary (Disney makes less onboard revenue) but the model holds up pretty well. If you know what a cruise in Sept 2013 made to Hawaii, with a little economic forecasting you can take a pretty good guess at 2014. Of course there are factors you can't predict like other ships coming into the same market as happened in the Med.

 

@ loonbeam

 

 

 

Interesting!

[runnerodb83]

The number they look at is called net revenue per passenger berth, which consists of three positive and 2 negative numbers:

 

1> Cabin revenue

2> Onboard Spend

3> Ancilliary Spend (for example, Princess Insurance purchased by passengers, BVE, pre-purchased gifts)

4> Direct marketing/sales spend - commissions and promos paid to travel agents, special rate deals offered, OBC offered, etc.

5> Operating costs (fuel, food, staff specifically related to the ship)

 

After a given run is closed 1,2 and 3 are added, 4 and 5 are subtracted and the total is divided by the number of berths on the ship (NOT the actual souls on board - that's a different calculation).

 

This number ends up telling them what they can reasonable expect to make or not make on a future sailing at the same general time of year.

 

If that number is not high enough? No repeats.

 

I can see Hawaii being problematic as a regular run because of the large travel distance and fuel burn as opposed to number of ports. A good portion of revenue comes from shore excursions (that #2 category above). Yes, more sea days means more spa revenue, etc, but also more food costs and fuel burned (they burn very little fuel in port). Add in some ports that are often missed due to sea conditions (less excursions again!) and I can see where the netrev is fairly low for that run. Reducing the number of sailings will reduce capacity and thus result in higher cabin prices.

 

(In the interest of full disclosure, I learned this while trying to find out if Disney would return to NYC but I have been assured all lines use a similar system for high level analysis, with minor variances.)

 

There's another side to this equation, and thats passenger demographic. It's been repeated many times on this forum by many folks "in the know" that the demographic of west coast US cruisers is one that doesn't spend very much on cruises. Vancouver cruisers (primarily canadian) DO spend more money per person, and Vancouver departures attract more foreigners than US departures.

 

I think there will be more Vancouver to Hawaii RT cruises offered in the future as well as Coastal cruises. If princess plays its cards correctly, they have a nice profitable set up on the west coast via a suite of itineraries, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 day coastals, 7-10 day mexican riviera, 15 day hawaii from LA

[Loonbeam]

For the sake of this model, demographic is factored in, as its based on the demographic that just sailed. There are other formulae used for demographics as well, they break things out like average spend by age group, etc (why do you think they want cashless cruising..that means all purchase data can be tied to a single entity. It's why Disney spent $1 Billion on Magic Bands)

 

The model I showed is used for a high level evaluation of a route. For example, if the Hawaii run net revenue per berth is $10, and the carribean is $50, they are not even going to bother to drill down to demo levels.

 

But if the numbers are close, they may look at demos to see if there is a value in shifting them via marketing initiatives to adjust the netrev.

 

There's another side to this equation, and thats passenger demographic. It's been repeated many times on this forum by many folks "in the know" that the demographic of west coast US cruisers is one that doesn't spend very much on cruises. Vancouver cruisers (primarily canadian) DO spend more money per person, and Vancouver departures attract more foreigners than US departures.

 

I think there will be more Vancouver to Hawaii RT cruises offered in the future as well as Coastal cruises. If princess plays its cards correctly, they have a nice profitable set up on the west coast via a suite of itineraries, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 day coastals, 7-10 day mexican riviera, 15 day hawaii from LA

[runnerodb83]

For the sake of this model, demographic is factored in, as its based on the demographic that just sailed. There are other formulae used for demographics as well, they break things out like average spend by age group, etc (why do you think they want cashless cruising..that means all purchase data can be tied to a single entity. It's why Disney spent $1 Billion on Magic Bands)

 

The model I showed is used for a high level evaluation of a route. For example, if the Hawaii run net revenue per berth is $10, and the carribean is $50, they are not even going to bother to drill down to demo levels.

 

But if the numbers are close, they may look at demos to see if there is a value in shifting them via marketing initiatives to adjust the netrev.

 

Ah i see, you make an excellent point.

 

I know the cruise industry probably wouldn't admit it, but i have a feeling that the "Upgrade Fairy" stops by the yield management departments before making upgrades, and takes a look at past passenger spending when all things are equal and there are available cabins.

[Loonbeam]

It's one factor but fairly minor. The number one factor by far in terms of upgrades is what they can sell the freed up cabin for and the probability of doing so as well as what was paid for the original cabin. That's what determines if the upgrades are given.

 

Once that is determined, if there are multiple upgradeable cabins in the same cat who paid the same price, other factors are then considered.

 

Ah i see, you make an excellent point.

 

I know the cruise industry probably wouldn't admit it, but i have a feeling that the "Upgrade Fairy" stops by the yield management departments before making upgrades, and takes a look at past passenger spending when all things are equal and there are available cabins.

[runnerodb83]

It's one factor but fairly minor. The number one factor by far in terms of upgrades is what they can sell the freed up cabin for and the probability of doing so as well as what was paid for the original cabin. That's what determines if the upgrades are given.

 

Once that is determined, if there are multiple upgradeable cabins in the same cat who paid the same price, other factors are then considered.

 

Oh right, forgot about that but makes perfect sense.

 

Also makes sense why those in a triple or quad rarely get upgrades with less than 25% of cabins having that capability on most princess ships and capacity controls on children too.

 

Thanks for the info.