Ten Years From Now...... HAL

[sppunk]

I think HAL envelops Seabourne completely and continues having the best itineraries of any mass market line. HAL today far outpaces any other mainstream line for itineraries, and while CCL has cut them out of all the other lines HAL hasn't really seen any of this.

 

I think that's a strategic and IMO smart shift.

 

Also, HAL will have a ship (or two) homeported in Asia.

[POA1]

I'd be very surprised if there wasn't a better effort to capture the life cycle revenue stream as cruisers became more mature. I'm thinking of something along the lines of GM, only more successful, I hope. Carnival is your Chevrolet. Seabourn is your Cadillac. P&O is Holden. Hopefully HAL is Buick, but it could be Oldsmobile. I'm not sure who gets to be Vauxhall or Opel. (Cunard?)

 

Basically, if the market is large enough, you try to capture the younger market with your entry level product and as the travelers get older, you shunt some of them off into your offerings targeted at the more mature cruiser.

[ger_77]

Carnival is your Chevrolet. Seabourn is your Cadillac. P&O is Holden. Hopefully HAL is Buick, but it could be Oldsmobile. I'm not sure who gets to be Vauxhall or Opel. (Cunard?)

 

"See the USA in a Chevrolet" . . . see Europe in a Buick? :D

 

Getting back to Sail's thoughts - I would hate to see the MDR made into a pay-for venue; the thought of going on a cruise and eating from the buffet all the time would certainly turn off many cruisers - including me.

 

Smooth Sailing! :) :) :)

[RedmondCruiser]

Personal opinion only:

 

All four "S" class ships (SADM, MADM, RYDM & VEDM) gone/elsewhere

 

Two of the four "R" class ships (RTDM & VODM) gone/elsewhere

 

The Elegant Explorer (PRDM) gone/elsewhere

 

 

Other ships:

 

Two "R" class (AMDM & ZADM with AMDM having taken over the role and itineraries of PRDM

 

Four Vistas (ZUDM, OSDM, WEDM & NODM)

 

Two Signatures (EUDM & NADM)

 

Three Pinnacles (SADM, MADM & RYDM)

 

I'd scratch all the R class ships - 15 years from now they will be about 30

 

To the mix I would add three MEGADAM ships. 160,000 tons

 

Remember the Vista ships will also be very long in the tooth. --- and sad to say but my beloved Noordam III will have probably visited Alang.

[navybankerteacher]

Served MDR meals are an essential element of cruising. While quality may bottom out, I believe there will still be included MDR meals.

 

Even if Prinsendam and the R and S class ships are gone, HAL will retain its niche as the smaller ship mass market line - the 1800-2000 pax Vistas will be the new small, as the other mass market lines build towards 6000 pax behemoths. As long as HAL keeps their dark blue hulls and teak wrap around promenade decks, they will survive in the affections of the traditionalists among us.

[Tarpeian Rock]

One of the two MDR's will be "Lido-ized" -- i.e., made into a buffet experience. This will be done as a nod to the perception that pax want greater informality -- an extension of the "have it your way" mindset. Not so incidentally, this will also result in significant savings in both labor costs and food expense. As the tuxedo-comfortable generation continues to dwindle, formal nights will go. Formerly port-intensive itineraries will be tweaked to increase the number of sea days, dropping a port or two, permitting slower, fuel-saving speeds between ports and increasing the amount of on-board time where all the spending benefits HAL.

[Ship's Wake]

Viking would really have to prove itself to me after seeing how their river cruise passengers were treated last summer when the rivers flooded and they just about told them that they did not care about them. I would be very hesitant to sail with this company after reading some of those horror stories.

 

The test of good customer service is how a company reacts when things are not going smoothly.

Terri

 

In a couple of years when I have more time to take longer ocean cruises Viking will be on my shortlist of lines to consider.

 

Their new ships look to be fantastic.

[jaguarstyper]

No one can predict the future, but it is fun to speculate.

 

I think HAL is at or very near a juncture. They can become just another mainstream cruise line with boring itineraries, short port visits, tons of on-board money making activities and mega-ships where the ship is the destination. Or, they can embrace what has made them stand out over the years and make a concerted effort to enhance those things. For HAL's sake, I hope they opt for the latter.

 

Its my hope and speculation that someone at HAL will wake up and figure out that they need to get back to offering a different, more elegant form of cruising with higher end services and amenities. If the world economy improves, they may be able to abandon the low fare based strategy they seem to be embracing now and raise fares to a point where they can bring back many of the things they have cut back on to save costs. This will put them in a position of differentiation, which could be the key to success. They will keep the smaller ships and interesting itineraries and not give into the trend of mega-ship floating resorts that need to offer rock-bottom pricing to routinely fill up.

 

If they take the former option, they will become just small obscure player in a crowded market where they will continue to cut services and amenities and offer bargain basement fares just to fill the cabins. I'm not sure if this is a viable strategy for survival against Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian, who are already miles ahead of HAL in this arena.

 

Of course, this is all pure speculation and perhaps a little dreaming on my part. But hey, it could happen. :)

Edited August 8, 2014 by jaguarstyper

[POA1]

I'll take a contrarian view on the MDR. While I agree that the proteins are definitely smaller than they were 20 or even 10 years ago, the dishes are generally much more interesting. The fish choices, in particular are more varied than they used to be. I'm hopeful that we'll see more game in the future as well.

[iancal]

If HAL continues as they have...older ships, sitting on the fence on most issues, reduction in service and maintenance, a marketing program that is at odds with reality on their ships, I would say that they will be out of business.

 

HAL simply do not know what they want to be when the grow up. At this rate, they will not get there. The competition will eat their lunch and time will deplete their loyal following.

Edited August 8, 2014 by iancal

[jaguarstyper]

If HAL continues as they have...older ships, sitting on the fence on most issues, reduction in service and maintenance, a marketing program that is at odds with reality on their ships, I would say that they will be out of business.

 

HAL simply do not know what they want to be when the grow up. At this rate, they will not get there. The competition will eat their lunch and time will deplete their loyal following.

I totally agree and that was the long winded point I was trying to make. HAL is not in a position to compete in the mega-ship, mainstream floating resort market. If they attempt to go there, my fear is they will become a dodo bird.

[Lizzie68]

If HAL continues as they have...older ships, sitting on the fence on most issues, reduction in service and maintenance, a marketing program that is at odds with reality on their ships, I would say that they will be out of business.

 

HAL simply do not know what they want to be when the grow up. At this rate, they will not get there. The competition will eat their lunch and time will deplete their loyal following.

 

I hate to say this - but I suspect you are right. I hope not, and I hope that very soon they turn things around.

[navybankerteacher]

That could be true for several of us, but didn't we see the best years of cruising?

 

Not if we didn't start before, say, 2005 -when "big" really started and service cuts began in earnest.

[Krazy Kruizers]

That could be true for several of us, but didn't we see the best years of cruising?

 

 

Absolutely!!

[Susie51]

Not if we didn't start before, say, 2005 -when "big" really started and service cuts began in earnest.

 

How were you able to determine that 2005 was the beginning of BIG ships?

[LAFFNVEGAS]

If HAL continues as they have...older ships, sitting on the fence on most issues, reduction in service and maintenance, a marketing program that is at odds with reality on their ships, I would say that they will be out of business.

 

HAL simply do not know what they want to be when the grow up. At this rate, they will not get there. The competition will eat their lunch and time will deplete their loyal following.

 

I totally agree with what you say, Both my husband and I have been saying for quite some time that that they have an identity complex and do not know what they want to be. ....Actually I think I know what they would like to be but doing that does not make them profitable. Bottom line they have to make money and the cost of doing business in the cruise travel industry is costing them more and more. Basically HAL has NOT kept up with the needs and wants of the younger cruisers who will be their bread and butter in 10 to 15 years when those passengers are retiring and have the money to travel. They are not even keeping up with what cruisers want right now in most cases. HAL will either need to decide what their niche is and stick with it till they fold or become a mass market cruise line bringing in the masses and and bring on some out of the box thinkers that will come up with creative ways to have passengers book cruises on HAL.

 

BUT the number one thing they need to do that other cruise lines are actually starting to concentrate on is the Luxury Experience with Exceptional Service and with plenty Crew members to attend to your needs. Unless they step up to the plate with this they may as well quit building ships now.

[navybankerteacher]

If HAL continues as they have...older ships, sitting on the fence on most issues, reduction in service and maintenance, a marketing program that is at odds with reality on their ships, I would say that they will be out of business.

 

HAL simply do not know what they want to be when the grow up. At this rate, they will not get there. The competition will eat their lunch and time will deplete their loyal following.

 

I disagree - in part: I believe that HALis following a plan. They are building small (by today's definition of mass-market lines' new builds) ships. The 2,600 pax Pinnacle class, while large in my view, makes them a different thing - as the bulk of the mass-market lines build towards the 6,000 figure, they will occupy a distinct niche: the middle market between the Seaborns, Crystals, etc. and the Royal Caribbean's, NCL's, Carnival's, even Princess and Celebrity are building up.

 

There is a huge population of cruisers now - lured by the low fares of recent years - and as many of these mature and gain spare time through retirement and spare cash by seeing their children finish college, they will also tire of the floating amusement parks and start looking for something a bit more upscale, yet still affordable. I believe HAL may be in a strong position in ten or so years to bid farewell to the bargain hunters and entice veterans with a quality product.

[InTheWASide]

Personal opinion only:

 

All four "S" class ships (SADM, MADM, RYDM & VEDM) gone/elsewhere

 

Two of the four "R" class ships (RTDM & VODM) gone/elsewhere

 

The Elegant Explorer (PRDM) gone/elsewhere

 

 

Other ships:

 

Two "R" class (AMDM & ZADM with AMDM having taken over the role and itineraries of PRDM

 

Four Vistas (ZUDM, OSDM, WEDM & NODM)

 

Two Signatures (EUDM & NADM)

 

Three Pinnacles (SADM, MADM & RYDM)

 

I tend to agree with this, but with some things that have been leaked to me about the new class of ship and some of the "game changer" components it will have... not necessarily to the rest of the industry or even the premium segment... but just game changer within HAL) I have a feeling within 10 years there will be enough Pinnacle ships to offset the S class (2 Pinnacle ships),and not just the 2 R ships like Copper mentions (1 more Pinnacle ship) but I believe that there will be a replacement for the 2 other R class (a 4th Pinnacle class) and maybe even a couple more... If these ships are a new renaissance like Solstice was with Celebrity, there may be a good need for new growth... not just replacement. Or if they don't have more than the predicted 4 Pinnacles there may be a new class at that point.

 

Will all of that be built and out in 10 years? Not likely. But at least some announcements, orders on the books, etc. I also have no doubt that the S and R class names will be recycled as the ships are phased out. And having 2 ships go out at a time and 1 being built makes it so they don't roll over too quick and cause confusion.

Edited August 8, 2014 by InTheWASide

[InTheWASide]

the new Viking Ocean ship , which is 930 pax - all verandahs - and the 2 new soon-to-be additions to that ocean fleet will take over the market that HAL held with the R and S class ships.

 

Carol

 

Viking Star, Viking Sea, Viking Sky. Only a matter of time before a new Viking Sun (Prinsendam's old name for those that may not be familiar)

Edited August 8, 2014 by InTheWASide

[LAFFNVEGAS]

 

There is a huge population of cruisers now - lured by the low fares of recent years - and as many of these mature and gain spare time through retirement and spare cash by seeing their children finish college, they will also tire of the floating amusement parks and start looking for something a bit more upscale, yet still affordable. I believe HAL may be in a strong position in ten or so years to bid farewell to the bargain hunters and entice veterans with a quality product.

I disagree, unless... HAL does something quickly to change the upscale experience that they are quickly depleting. The Neptune Suites are far from luxurious. Take a look at what Celebrity is doing, Norwegian Cruise Lines even MSC. With the lack of good service and depleting crew members to offer any service HAL cannot even come close to calling themselves a Premium Cruise Line let alone continue to attract those people in 10 yrs that will be in the position to spend lots of money and time retiring. If they do not make a drastic change quickly. It is doubtful there will be much chatting here in 10 years.

[serendipity1499]

I am disappointed that the decision has been made to add Lanai staterooms to the Volendam and Zaandam. That reduces the appeal of those ships to me.

 

Enhancement of the late Fall/Winter/early Spring itineraries simply must be made. Beautiful, well equipped ships with public facilities that invite guests to enjoy them on longer itineraries, why are these opportunities ignored? I have thought from the beginning upon the Signature Class ships introduction that it was a "crime" that they were restricted to the most mundane 7 day itineraries.

 

Grand World Voyages will contine, I hope. Also, Grand Voyages for other destinations as well would be welcome. But, HAL, please note: all of the "stuff" one gets as a result of these cruises is not welcome nor wanted at this stage of my life. I am at the "getting rid of stuff" stage not accumulating more "stuff"! And, my gosh, the price for the cruise could be reduced and you might end up with a full ship from X to X, without lots of segment reduced prices! And, I think maybe some additional creative thinking might lead to some itineraries not yet considered.

 

TKA cruiser, I agree with you about getting rid of the gifts! On our 68 day Grand South America/Antarctica cruise we received over 18 different gifts from HAL alone..Many of them were two, one for each of us.. Fortunately I have Grandchildren who loved the extra gtifts..LOL

 

However, we really enjoyed the Lanai on Veendam & will book one again if we are able to..

 

I'm sure the reason the signature class ships are restricted to 7 days is that many ports in Europe & South America could not take these large ships.. Unless the countries update & enlarge their port facilities, there will be smaller ships being used..

 

RKA cruiser,

 

In response to your comment about decreasing the "stuff", I think they may be onto that. (I too moan with many of the Grand gifts, although some I really like.) In the most recent booklet we received from HAL (within the past few weeks) they have some stellar (in my opinion) long cruises (like 40 - 80 days) with wonderful ports, a number of which are not commonly used. From an itinerary perspective they are "grand", but not classified as such, nor priced like an historical "Grand Cruise". I found a number I would like to go on today! For these cruises I am sure that many of the extras besides the "gifts" from Grand Cruises will go away, but I find their longer cruises without such perks totally satisfactory - like the Voyage of the Vikings and the Circle South America cruises I have taken, which were not classified as Grand. And - they are certainly less expensive than the Grand Voyages. Just my thoughts.

 

Our South America/Antarctica Prinsendam cruise in 2013 was called a "Grand Voyage".. Yes it was very expensive, but well worth it..We even had a different Know before you go "Grand Voyage" booklet.. In addition FedEx picked up four of our suitcases & HAL paid to have them delivered to & from the Port..

 

All those gifts could have been cut down.. Don't need two plates with the map on them, or two refrig. tiles, or even two logbooks.. Did not use the poncho's & DH never used the hat, gloves & scarf, but I did.. Loved the Steiff Teddy bears with the HAL emblem on his foot... One of the Teddy's went to our Granddaughter..

 

HAL also gave us 2 small rolling bags, which we loved, but I had to pack one of my smaller carry-ons in a larger bag to be shipped home..

[iancal]

Anyone who calls HAL a premium line is living in the past. Those days are long gone. The competition passed HAL by a few years ago.

 

I can understand why HAL loyalists-especially those who never or seldom cruise on a competing line disagree with this. Or those who have not been on a competing line in the last several years. The pace of change is rapid and some of the current competing market offerings are stellar.

 

Keep in mind that the cruise market is not simply a cruise market..it is a leisure market. There are lots of choices out there. Cruising is only one of them. We are doing land in Sept/Oct. We may do a Med cruise at the same time now that a Black Sea cruise is no longer attractive to us. And then perhaps not. There are lots and lots of competing options for us-especially as the time draws closer.

Edited August 8, 2014 by iancal

[cruisemom42]

In my good dreams:

• HAL will put together a crackerjack publicity/advertising campaign and give itself an overhaul around the launch of the new Pinnacle class. It's known that a lot of cruisers look for new ships to sail on, and HAL can count on some "new" and not die-hard HAL fans willing to try out the line on a new-build ship. Do it right, and they can hook these cruisers for the HAL experience (whatever that may look like -- but hopefully one that still focuses on itineraries and a traditional, but now more upscale, sailing experience.) Meanwhile, HAL will retain at least one smaller ship with interesting longer and "one-off" itineraries, hopefully also with a lecture/enrichment experience that complements the ports.
  
• At least one restaurant that maintains the traditional MDR experience, even if formal nights disappear. More good specialty restaurant options (like Tamarind; PG is a bit stale IMO) and "dine-around" option packages.
  

In my nightmares :eek::

• Larger ships, less interesting itineraries.
  
• MDR becomes a food court type environment.
  
• Large vats of frozen "drink of the day", wine machines, tapped kegs; swipe your cruise card and your glass is filled automatically per your selection. (15% gratuity still added, just 'cuz).
  
• Friendly stewards replaced with room-cleaning robots.
  
• Class-system aboard ships becomes increasingly prevalent; steerage-level cabins introduced (sleeps six! share a bathroom down the hall! no food included -- pay as you go!)
  

[LAFFNVEGAS]

Too late to add to what I wrote but I wanted to add this. CCL Corp has actually fallen badly and many of their lines are not doing as well as they were 10+ years ago Over all they have not positioned themselves and their lines for the future as well as other have. While I am not a big fan of the RCI product and have personal flaws I just do not care for over all they are positioning themselves quite well. Just compare the RCI stock to the CCL stock. The Royal Caribbean Ships are for the young and old and families but as those people change and kids move on the adults can then move over to Celebrity and have the same perks for frequent cruising and basically be booking with the same company just a more adult upscale ship and to take it a step higher they can go to Azamara. It is all one neat clean package and while it took a while the stock performance is actually starting to show that this is working.

Currently HAL stands alone just like all the other lines under CCL which yes they can soar by themselves and become a great line or they can be the line that 15+ yrs from now we say I remember when there WAS a Holland America cruise line.

If HAL was smart they would make HAL the innovative family line and convert Seabourn to their crossover line but there would also need to be some big changes done with Seabourn ....:D but that is for discussion on another board.

Edited August 8, 2014 by LAFFNVEGAS

[solocanadian]

I expect to be a pile of ash by then so I don't care.:p