I have a weather question, I know, I know

[isaiahsnana]

We are on the Breeze in 8 days and the weather forecast for the whole week is for 80 - 100% rain. For those of you who have had this forecast (going to Grand Cayman and Jamaica), does that really mean there is a 100% chance it will rain sometime on that day or it will rain 100% of the time?? There is to be a Perseid Meteor shower then with three of the nights being prime meteor watching nights. Hoping I get to see them on at least one night.

[Nic6318]

Hi There

 

Generally it is going to be a passing rain storm. Maybe an hour or so and then it will be 90 degrees again. A half hour later and you wouldn't know it rained except for some puddles. No guarantees but this would be typical.

 

have a great cruise

[AdoraBelle]

It doesn't really matter whether someone has had a similar forecast before--the human race as a whole still doesn't have the technology to predict specific local weather very well more than a few days out. We can't even tell exactly where a hurricane will make landfall when it's been tracked for days or weeks.

 

In short, unless you sail directly into a major storm--and I admit I don't know what tropical systems may be afoot right now--you probably won't know what you're going to get until the day comes.

 

(Former Florida resident.)

[OCruisers]

Normally means there will be a good chance of rain at some point that day.

[freedomcruiser891]

That's how it was on our freedom cruise in 2015 to grand Cayman Jamaica and Cozumel. If it's a storm cell like ours, they will try to sail around the storm. It only rained in Cozumel fr us luckily. Don't let the rain ruin the fun especially in grand Cayman!

The only thing is storm cells can sometimes make for choppy seas so pack Dramamine if you might need it.

I seriously doubt and hope that it won't rain every day 100% of the day so happy sailings!

[riclop]

We are on the Breeze in 8 days and the weather forecast for the whole week is for 80 - 100% rain. For those of you who have had this forecast (going to Grand Cayman and Jamaica), does that really mean there is a 100% chance it will rain sometime on that day or it will rain 100% of the time?? There is to be a Perseid Meteor shower then with three of the nights being prime meteor watching nights. Hoping I get to see them on at least one night.

 

This is the time of the year that there a lot of showers and thunderstorms but it won't rain all the time.

[TullMan]

Textbook definition of rain chance in my own words, sorry:

 

The weather folks keep detailed information over long periods of time. With that information they can pick say, 100 days with very similar conditions. If it rained on 50 of those days then there was a 50% chance of rain. This is only a probability.

 

That said, the rain will likely be in the afternoon. Early morning viewing of the Perseid shower should be fine. Also, if you live in the city, another treat will be the Milky Way. I always find time for a little dark-sky gazing between ports.

Edited July 30, 2016 by TullMan

[John Bull]

Normally means there will be a good chance of rain at some point that day.

 

That's right. 100% chance means it will definitely rain at some point, 80% means there will probably be rain at some point. But not limited to a single shower.

 

The number of washed-out days we've experienced in the Caribbean can be counted on the fingers of one hand.

But plenty of other days we've had short, sharp warm showers, then everywhere is bone-dry half an hour later. It's actually quite refreshing for some of us northern Europeans unused to the temperatures.

 

It quite surprises me that the forecast is similar for Jamaica and Grand Caymen. Jamaica being much greener, much bigger and with mountains, rain is usually much more likely than at GC.

 

BTW, Don't rent a Daihatsu jeep. Takes ages to put the roof up, by which time it's dry again. Then by the time you've put it down again it's raining again :D

 

JB :)

Edited July 30, 2016 by John Bull

[isaiahsnana]

Thank you all so much! I am not a big sun worshiper and I love a good thunder storm at sea. I was just hoping to get some clear skies at night to get to see the meteor shower!!

[USNUZULOOSE]

I love the rain. I take my small umbrella and go about my business in ports. And I just get a good cup of coffee and read while it is raining. I hope you enjoy it no matter the weather.

[Keith1010]

Usually it is for a short time and sometime just like in our own country it does not mean where you will be will be raining. It could be a few miles away.

 

Keith