Hurricane Irma Watch

[HallOfPromise]

Some more detail with a nice little video.

 

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/hurricane-irma-is-a-potential-threat

[fragilek]

This storm has sped up and so we should know more in a few days. At the moment it is forecast to turn north and miss the island then make its way up towards new york - However as I said this early on forecasts nearly always change.

[fragilek]

[fragilek]

[fragilek]

that's is a few of the main models. If people want I will post updates when I can as they come out . The usually change up to a few days from land fall.

[fragilek]

PS don't shoot me down for putting these up, as happened when I posted info on Henrey for future Liberty passengers. Some of the locals seemed to think I was making the info up even although I was posting links to the models and trying to help those thinking that they were going to be sailing as models (by this time a few days out) clearly indicated how bad it would get.

[cruisinfanatic]

LEaving sept 4th from port canaveral on the Disney Dream for 4 nights to the Bahamas. Haven't heard anything from Disney. I even called them and the lady over the phone didn't even know who Irma was!;p

You'll be home by the time Irma gets near there

[daka]

We are on Tomorrows ALLURE (Sept 3)

So it looks like we will be coming home to the storm next weekend maybe in south FL.

[DisneyPrincess2017]

Disney Fantasy Sept 9th out of Port Canaveral-Eastern

I just hope we get out-we live in Florida and will be at Disney World on Friday unless we hear something from DCL. We had to miss Castaway Cay last Cruise (Sept 27th Disney Fantasy 2015) because of Hurricaine Joaquin. That one formed while we were in St. John and the ship kept us very informed of what was happening and the changes made to keep us safe. I wonder if we will hear anything from Disney this week? Do the cruise lines typically keep passengers informed of potential changes/cacellations before the cruise? Thanks All...my first time on a thread but I am great full to have you all!

[Tiggertastic]

We're flying in to Miami from the uk on the 8th and currently hoping on 2 thing, the flight gets to Miami and secondly our 9/9 cruise embarks. If they want to change the itinerary we can live with that. So we're watching closely

 

 

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[BND]

Models are useless this far out. Wait til we're within 4-5 days if you really want to know where the storm is probably going. Posting one or two models isn't a good idea for anyone, even a meteorologist.

 

Just check out last years's Hurricane Matthew and it's projected and actual path.

[Tony20]

Models are useless this far out. Wait til we're within 4-5 days if you really want to know where the storm is probably going. Posting one or two models isn't a good idea for anyone, even a meteorologist.

 

Just check out last years's Hurricane Matthew and it's projected and actual path.

 

"Useless"? Really?

 

They're very valuable when taken in context. Watchfulness and planning is never a bad strategy. You shouldn't encourage people who aren't accustomed to tropical system to view information as "useless".

[BND]

"Useless"? Really?

 

They're very valuable when taken in context. Watchfulness and planning is never a bad strategy. You shouldn't encourage people who aren't accustomed to tropical system to view information as "useless".

 

Too many people see one or two models and decide that's what's going to happen. A good meteorologist will tell you the same thing that I said. There's too many who think a model run or two is fact 10 days out. It's not by a long shot. You can be prepared and watchful without jumping to conclusions.

[waterbugohio]

Watching this thread

We sailed 9/18 in the majesty

 

I know Irma should be past. But I thought I saw a post about more storms behind her

 

I'm not good at reading those weather maps. Can someone tell me what to watch for???

[John&LaLa]

I'm prepping my shutters for closing on Monday morning.

 

 

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[Tony20]

Too many people see one or two models and decide that's what's going to happen. A good meteorologist will tell you the same thing that I said. There's too many who think a model run or two is fact 10 days out. It's not by a long shot. You can be prepared and watchful without jumping to conclusions.

 

I agree with this. So they're not actually USELESS.

 

You can't use hyperbole to argue against hyperbole.

[HallOfPromise]

The message should be to watch the models knowing the accuracy is lower the more days out the event is, but not to dismiss them all together. Look at the models with knowledge at hand, not simply ignore them and wait. Or... Knowledge over ignorance.

 

And a good meteorologist would probably tell people to study the early models and to be prepared of changes, but to not make decisions until the 5-day models come out. And these models are very useful to a meteorologist, as it's one of many tools they need to forecast the storm. Every meteorologist I fallow uses long-term forecasts to get a picture of future probabilities. And that should be the key word. Probability.

[John&LaLa]

I never understood why Colorado State forecasts hurricanes

 

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[wilson821]

We leave out of Mobile, AL on 9/9 and head for Cozumel and Progreso... returning on 9/14.... following this thread... first time for us both and getting a lil nervous

[Dennis#1]

Nachi Cocom here we come!

 

Have fun. We love Nachi Cocum. Been to Nachi Cocum at least 10 times already.

[gobucks66]

We are driving down from Ohio, leaving on the 9th for the cruise on Enchantment out of Miami on the 11th, so I will have no idea what to do come then. We could drive all the way down only to have the POM closed or the cruise before ours kept at sea. I will just keep watching and hoping for the best.

[daka]

Not USELESS, but not definitive.

So many "models" so much variance....probably good to keep watching, but it only gets "real" about 2 - 3 days out.

We have been in Fort Lauderdale 27 years, a few hurricanes and do not PANIC .... (yet)

[Margy23]

We're going to be on Oasis Sept 17. Got our eyes and ears open, but happy to be going anywhere as long as we can get on the ship with a week of no cleaning or cooking! LOL

 

We're on that sailing also and agree with you. We are taking an extra week's supply of medication just as insurance, but our main focus is on having a great cruise.

 

Do you drive down from Georgia? We live in Ocala, FL, so we just have about a 2 1/2 hour drive to Port Canaveral. It's good not to have to worry about air travel like we did when we lived in the Chicago area.

 

Looking forward to meeting you!

 

Margy

[cruisinfanatic]

Too many people see one or two models and decide that's what's going to happen. A good meteorologist will tell you the same thing that I said. There's too many who think a model run or two is fact 10 days out. It's not by a long shot. You can be prepared and watchful without jumping to conclusions.

I think it's certainly helpful to see what the different models say where the storm could go. Sometimes most of them agree. One of them is usually right

[HallOfPromise]

My worst case scenario is we fly down on the 9th and then last minute Royal cancels our Sept 10th cruise (similar to how they handled Liberty), then we are stuck in a potential disaster zone. I'd much rather deal with a cancelled cruise then risk the safety of my fiancee and me.