CCL Had a Rough Day

[riclop]

Buy more on the dip.

[tidecat]

Wall Street has been a bit skittish about the seemingly never-ending capacity growth from the cruise lines, although Royal Caribbean seems to catch the most grief for it.

 

From Carnival’s side, they pick up another 4,000 passengers a week in December 2019, and another 5,200 per week in August 2020 - so basically, demand needs to grow by about 10% over the next two years to fill Panorama, the first XL ship, and of course the current fleet. If that starts becoming an issue, then Carnival starts retiring ships.

 

If Carnival can fill those new berths without cutting fares, then the stock price should continue to grow.

 

 

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[jimbo5544]

Wall Street has been a bit skittish about the seemingly never-ending capacity growth from the cruise lines, although Royal Caribbean seems to catch the most grief for it.

 

From Carnival’s side, they pick up another 4,000 passengers a week in December 2019, and another 5,200 per week in August 2020 - so basically, demand needs to grow by about 10% over the next two years to fill Panorama, the first XL ship, and of course the current fleet. If that starts becoming an issue, then Carnival starts retiring ships.

 

If Carnival can fill those new berths without cutting fares, then the stock price should continue to grow.

 

 

Sent from my eye phone using a three legged yak FFS

Your logic is sound, but the it gets scary when you look at the industry and the total number of new ships and berths and whether the market can sustain the growth. Carnival is somewhat unique in the they have such a heavy concentration of ships in the Caribbean as compared to their rivals.

[winddawn]

CCL had another rough day today down $1.69, following the overall market lower. Fuel prices were up again today so that didn't help. On another note, Royal Caribbean is investing in Millennials and hoping to attract them with the addition of more shorter cruises with things like virtual reality and laser tag activities. Do you think Carnival attracts Millennials?

 

http://fortune.com/2018/06/26/royal-caribbean-millenials-mariner-of-the-sea/

[NavarreCruiser]

This is from the news wires a couple of days ago. I am holding my Carnival stock for the long haul and for the OBC. It only represents a small portion of my portfolio so I am not concerned or thinking of selling. However, it is illustrative that Carnival stock is in a little bit of a swoon right now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Carnival Corporation (CCL) is currently at $57.88, down $5.65 or 8.89%

-- Would be lowest close since April 13, 2017 when it closed at $57.47

 

-- On pace for largest percent decrease since Jan. 17, 2012 when it fell 13.65%

-- Currently down five of the past six days

-- Down 7.06% month-to-date; on pace for worst month since Sept. 2017 when it fell 7.07%

-- Would be a new 52 week closing low

All data as of 10:55:51 a.m. ET

[repo-cruiser]

CCL had another rough day today down $1.69, following the overall market lower. Fuel prices were up again today so that didn't help. On another note, Royal Caribbean is investing in Millennials and hoping to attract them with the addition of more shorter cruises with things like virtual reality and laser tag activities. Do you think Carnival attracts Millennials?

 

http://fortune.com/2018/06/26/royal-caribbean-millenials-mariner-of-the-sea/

Lets hope not.

 

http://www.lifehack.org/articles/work/8-reasons-millennials-seem-lazy-work.html

[LMaxwell]

i do know that all the time they had fuel supplements i never saw them charge it, but they did have one lol

 

They did and the Florida AG went after them big time.

[tidecat]

I actually would say that all cruise lines are carrying more of the 25-34 set than at any point in their history; it’s really how the industry has grown.

 

What could be a competitive disadvantage for Carnival is that by not specifically targeting Millennials, Carnival may be missing out on securing new cruisers who could very well book 50 cruises over the course of a lifetime.

 

Ironically, some of Carnival’s other lines, in particular AIDA and P&O Australia, have been more consistent about targeting young adults for quite some time.

 

Honestly, given the timelines of ship construction, it’s time to start asking what Generation Z wants in a cruise ship. The oldest members of Generation Z are graduating college, and this year’s high school graduates will be spending their own money in a few short years.

 

 

Sent from my eye phone using a three legged yak FFS

[Moviela]

Wall Street has been a bit skittish about the seemingly never-ending capacity growth from the cruise lines, although Royal Caribbean seems to catch the most grief for it.

 

From Carnival’s side, they pick up another 4,000 passengers a week in December 2019, and another 5,200 per week in August 2020 - so basically, demand needs to grow by about 10% over the next two years to fill Panorama, the first XL ship, and of course the current fleet. If that starts becoming an issue, then Carnival starts retiring ships.

 

If Carnival can fill those new berths without cutting fares, then the stock price should continue to grow.

 

 

Sent from my eye phone using a three legged yak FFS

Your passenger berth numbers only account for new ships. You must deduct for hulls that are retired. For example Vista and Horizon only added about 1% net new berths.

 

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[mapsmith]

Saw a news blurb that CCL lowered its profit forecast due to higher fuel costs. Sure hope they don't try to bring back the dreaded "fuel supplement" charge. :mad:

 

 

Our Tickets in March still had the dreaded clause, "Carnival reserves the right to impose a fuel surcharge if the spot price of oil goes over $110 per barrel"

[bobandsherry]

Our Tickets in March still had the dreaded clause, "Carnival reserves the right to impose a fuel surcharge if the spot price of oil goes over $110 per barrel"

Still long way to go before we see that level..... Hopefully never again.

 

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