Weekend of Aug.24-25 - 3 hot spots!

[PelicanBill]

And you thought this was about "Chantal?"  Nope.  She's off into the Atlantic.  Suddenly things have gotten interesting.  Let's take them in order of threat. As always if any of these becomes a named storm it gets its own thread and discussion.  If you post sailing dates, ship name and port dates I will try to predict impacts.

 

TD 5 http://trackthetropics.com/TD5/ 

This morning when this was a "disturbance" I went onto the Windy app and looked at it.  I could see well formed circulation and a defined center hot spot of thunderstorms. I said, this one's going to be trouble soon.  And soon it is. Tropical Depression 5 is the sudden and biggest threat.  It is approaching the Caribbean chain right at the midpoint between the windward (southern) and leeward (northern) islands.  Predicted to be Tropical Storm strength at crossing, then increase to hurricane strength, before reaching the greater Antilles somewhere around Puerto Rico and The Dominican Republic.  The model paths are surprisingly aligned for this path prediction, passing, just SW of Puerto Rico where impact is worst on the leading edge of the storm, followed by landing on SE DR.  So far we are looking at a weak hurricane for strength.  Stay tuned for this one. 

 

98L http://trackthetropics.com/INVEST98/ 

This is the one hovering over SE Florida now, and will head up the coast but offshore. Locally heavy rain in SE Florida and northern Bahamas next 2 days. 90% likely to become named storm over 5 days. Tuesday-Wednesday it could interfere with cruise route to/from Bermuda. Most models show only a tropical storm and a weak one at that.

 

90L http://trackthetropics.com/INVEST90/ 

90L is forming off the SW Lousiana Gulf coast.  It's new, and early, so forecasts are very preliminary. There is a full range of possibliites in the models.  The good news it is expected to move inland and that will stunt its growth when that happens.  Keep watch if you are cruising out of New Orleans.  If it gets any strength before going ashore, some models say it stays strong across the SE states and emerges into the Atlantic off the Carolinas with some impact left.  Very prospective but not impossible.

 

[ryano]

Headed out next Sunday out of Port Canaveral on Harmony of the Seas and was supposed to go to Coco Cay, St Thomas and St Maarten.  Thats not happening looks like.  I just hope the ship is back next Sunday. It doesnt look like this storm could impact that area by then. Currently I am watching what the Harmony cruise does that leaves tomorrow.  They were headed there too.

 

Do you see any impacts for us other than a rerouted intinerary to Western? 

Edited August 24, 2019 by ryano

[FLACRUISER99]

Thanks @Pelican Bill for the heads up on TD 5 as I will boarding Allure of the Seas 1 Sept.

[PelicanBill]

So for timing, TD5 would reach the DR Thursday-Friday and if a weak hurricane as predicted, the mountains would tear it up if it crosses the island (of Hispaniola.)  Yes, path and timing make me concerned about Miami and Port Everglades for Sunday Sep. 1 but I would be surprised to see a significant impact.  But it's too early to forecast or predict... we can only guess.

 

[WMQueenie]

 

Heading out on the Sunrise out of NYC on Tuesday, the 27th. 

Ports - Grand Turk on 8/30   San Juan on 8/31 and Amber Cove on 9/1

How's it looking for us!?!?!

[babbet1962]

I will sailing on Grandeur of the Seas Aug. 31 thru. Sept 5 to Bermuda

Please tell me if any storms on on the horizon

[JenTX4NYC]

15 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

So for timing, TD5 would reach the DR Thursday-Friday and if a weak hurricane as predicted, the mountains would tear it up if it crosses the island (of Hispaniola.)  Yes, path and timing make me concerned about Miami and Port Everglades for Sunday Sep. 1 but I would be surprised to see a significant impact.  But it's too early to forecast or predict... we can only guess.

 

 

Im supposed to leave Miami on Sept 1... I don’t really care if they change our ports but I’m a little concerned we might not even be able to get on the ship.... if the cruise gets cancelled, when do you foresee the cruise lines making announcements?

[Scrappygrrl]

How are we feeling about Escape out of Manhattan to Bermuda tomorrow? I’m hoping we get it Bermuda ahead of it, and head back to NYC behind it, with hopefully decent weather in Bermuda. Thoughts?

[csj092809]

I live in St Thomas. I will post here when it moves through and let you know what we get as far as rain and wind.

[elron]

2 hours ago, Scrappygrrl said:

How are we feeling about Escape out of Manhattan to Bermuda tomorrow? I’m hoping we get it Bermuda ahead of it, and head back to NYC behind it, with hopefully decent weather in Bermuda. Thoughts?

Looks like for our trip we have to keep an eye on 98L. It can possibly get in our way of our return. I guess we 

look again tomorrow morning.

[erdoran]

Not a cruise but - Disneyworld 8/25-9/1, flying to/from PHL.  Seems ok from checking out your links, am I missing anything?

[bobsfamily]

Heading out 8/29 on the NCL Sun, hoping we can get to GSC on the 31!

AND then back to PC on the 2nd...

[PelicanBill]

58 minutes ago, erdoran said:

Not a cruise but - Disneyworld 8/25-9/1, flying to/from PHL.  Seems ok from checking out your links, am I missing anything?

Seems like bands of rain and a little wind and not much more.

[LadyBeBop]

My daughter is sailing on the Allure of the Sea tomorrow. Her Eastern Caribbean itinerary (St. Kitts, San Juan And Nassau) is now a Western itinerary (Labadee, Jamaica and Cozumel.). All thanks to Tropical Storm Dorian. 

 

And she she was worried that the tropical wave off the coast of Florida will affect her flying into Florida this morning. 

Edited August 24, 2019 by LadyBeBop

[PelicanBill]

4 hours ago, JenTX4NYC said:

 

Im supposed to leave Miami on Sept 1... I don’t really care if they change our ports but I’m a little concerned we might not even be able to get on the ship.... if the cruise gets cancelled, when do you foresee the cruise lines making announcements?

Too far out to know. Could be nothing by then. They sometimes do not announce until the day before. Many people wrestle with flights without knowing. Let’s hope this is not one of those situations.

[PelicanBill]

2 minutes ago, LadyBeBop said:

My daughter is sailing on the Allure of the Sea tomorrow. Her Eastern Caribbean itinerary (St. Kitts, San Juan And Nassau) is now a Western itinerary (Labadee, Jamaica and Cozumel.)

Really? Switched already? That is early indeed but that puts the ship well away from The area.

[LadyBeBop]

1 minute ago, PelicanBill said:

Too far out to know. Could be nothing by then. They sometimes do not announce until the day before. Many people wrestle with flights without knowing. Let’s hope this is not one of those situations.

 

Sorta think Dorian will stay south. But now, I’m a little worried. I just hope the ships make it to Miami and Fort Lauderdale on September 1. 

 

After all, my daughter is on one of them. 

 

Yes, I am a nervous mommy. 

[PelicanBill]

37 minutes ago, bobsfamily said:

Heading out 8/29 on the NCL Sun, hoping we can get to GSC on the 31!

AND then back to PC on the 2nd...

I think you will get out and back ahead of anything that heads that far up. Of course it only takes a moderate breeze to call off GSC !

[LadyBeBop]

1 minute ago, PelicanBill said:

Really? Switched already? That is early indeed but that puts the ship well away from The area.

My daughter just texted me with the change. She doesn’t care where she goes. She’s just going on vacation. 

 

Although she’s cruising to Cozumel next Spring. That will be at least her fourth straight cruise going to Cozumel. 

 

Maybe her fifth. Or even sixth. 

[PelicanBill]

2 hours ago, elron said:

Looks like for our trip we have to keep an eye on 98L. It can possibly get in our way of our return. I guess we 

look again tomorrow morning.

The Bermuda ships often have some slack in their timing, the storms often are moving fast, and they can work around it with a little change in plans.  Or we could get lucky. ...

[PelicanBill]

Update for Saturday night: the gulf disturbance is weaker. The Atlantic one over Florida is still only 70% chance to be a named storm so hang in there two days.

 

the one that bloomed this morning out east had become tropical storm Dorian. New thread.

[PelicanBill]

6 hours ago, WMQueenie said:

 

Heading out on the Sunrise out of NYC on Tuesday, the 27th. 

Ports - Grand Turk on 8/30   San Juan on 8/31 and Amber Cove on 9/1

How's it looking for us!?!?!

Well, First you have to cross paths with that nonsense over Florida now. That's expected to be Wed.-Thu. so I am guessing your ship must alter course to slip behind it. Could impact your GT arrival. If the strength does not increase they will sail straight through so expect a rough passage with a lot of rain in that case.

 

I think, at this point, you will arrive PR and DR after Dorian has passed if the forecast holds up.

 

EDIT: I took a second look and since you sail late on Tuesday, it will be pretty easy to slip behind the storm with minimal delay in my opinion.

Edited August 25, 2019 by PelicanBill

[babbet1962]

I had asked earlier if you know wether it will it bermuda...we are sailing on Aug. 31 Thur Sept. 5 

[PelicanBill]

11 hours ago, babbet1962 said:

I had asked earlier if you know wether it will it bermuda...we are sailing on Aug. 31 Thur Sept. 5 

Sorry! I talked about Bermuda in general.  This Florida thing will be off past Bermuda Thursday - long before Aug. 31 so no worries. 

 

And as for the Florida thing, it has already moved offshore to clear Florida up. On the Miami port cam you can see the offshore rain bands but no rain in port now.  And the strength is lower - 60% chance to develop into a named storm. A hurricane hunter may investigate later today.  The strength forecasts are split about half and half for above or below tropical storm strength.  

[MrsGrohl]

12 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

Well, First you have to cross paths with that nonsense over Florida now. That's expected to be Wed.-Thu. so I am guessing your ship must alter course to slip behind it. Could impact your GT arrival. If the strength does not increase they will sail straight through so expect a rough passage with a lot of rain in that case.

 

I think, at this point, you will arrive PR and DR after Dorian has passed if the forecast holds up.

 

EDIT: I took a second look and since you sail late on Tuesday, it will be pretty easy to slip behind the storm with minimal delay in my opinion.

Thank you for the update. I'm also on this sailing, hoping for the best.