Atlantic storm Dorian

[PelicanBill]

As expected, and quickly, TD5 has become Tropical Storm Dorian. We're watching these things:

 

- small size, often means intensity can vary a lot and change quickly

- expected to be a hurricane before it reaches it islands mid-day Tuesday

- watching for exact island impact, will hopefully have that tomorrow

- strength as it crosses into the Caribbean and impact to Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic, Wednesday night and Thursday mid-day

- what happens after that... very early to have any idea.

[LadyBeBop]

Already have at least one itinerary change. Royal Caribbean’s Allure of the Seas cruise tomorrow out of Fort Lauderdale, originally scheduled as an Eastern Caribbean cruise, is now a Western Caribbean cruise with stops in Labadee, Jamaica and Cozumel. 

[PelicanBill]

Oh good thank you, I had a question on that cruise in another thread.

[NYrunner]

We're sailing on the NCL Sky out of Miami on 8/26. Here is the itinerary:

 

Mon, 8/26: Miami

Tues, 8/27: Key West

Wed, 8/28: Freeport

Thurs, 8/29: Nassau

Fri, 8/30: Great Stirrup Cay

Sat, 8/31: Miami

 

Any thoughts on potential impacts on this cruise?

[Sailor Taylor]

Yikes!  Traveling on 8/31 from Miami!  

Edited August 25, 2019 by Sailor Taylor

[TampaGambler]

We are supposed to leave Friday 8/30 out of Miami on Navigator of the Seas with stops at coco cay and Nassau, and return Monday. Anyway idea what they would do with a three night cruise? A trip to nowhere would be disappointing and I wonder if they would allow us to cancel.

[LuCruise]

7 hours ago, TampaGambler said:

We are supposed to leave Friday 8/30 out of Miami on Navigator of the Seas with stops at coco cay and Nassau, and return Monday. Anyway idea what they would do with a three night cruise? A trip to nowhere would be disappointing and I wonder if they would allow us to cancel.

Wondering too but leaving tomorrow.  Hoping Bahamas is far away enough that we're ok. And hope no cancellations across the board...just itinerary changes to keep safe.

[PelicanBill]

First, an update and then cruise analysis.

 

As I mentioned, variations in a small storm are likely. Strength forecast is down, back to tropical storm when it crosses the islands, reached minimal hurricane a while, then back down to tropical storm when it pass SW of Puerto Rico and then crosses the Dominican Republic (and maybe part of Haiti, where Labadee is located).  Although the forecast says it remains a tropical storm, that is 5 days out and the mountains could tear it up there. A lot can change. 

 

Timing:  Crossing islands Tuesday morning (likely) , and Thursday morning arrival in Dominican Republic (rough estimate).

 

Island Impact: The forecast path is closest to  St. Lucia, and that means Martinque, St. Vincent, Dominica and Guadeloupe are all easily in the potential path.  The later path is still well offshore of Puerto Rico but crosses the Dominican Republic. Too early to say where.

[PelicanBill]

11 hours ago, NYrunner said:

We're sailing on the NCL Sky out of Miami on 8/26. Here is the itinerary:

 

Mon, 8/26: Miami

Tues, 8/27: Key West

Wed, 8/28: Freeport

Thurs, 8/29: Nassau

Fri, 8/30: Great Stirrup Cay

Sat, 8/31: Miami

 

Any thoughts on potential impacts on this cruise?

We've already seen Allure of the Seas change from eastern to western ahead of this.  Your itinerary technically would get back to Miami before it could make its way up there, as it could be in the Bahamas about the 1st.

 

10 hours ago, Sailor Taylor said:

Yikes!  Traveling on 8/31 from Miami!  

Stay tuned later this week. If this thing has any strength left and it goes where the forecast says, then I agree with Yikes.

 

8 hours ago, TampaGambler said:

We are supposed to leave Friday 8/30 out of Miami on Navigator of the Seas with stops at coco cay and Nassau, and return Monday. Anyway idea what they would do with a three night cruise? A trip to nowhere would be disappointing and I wonder if they would allow us to cancel.

Again, it is early to know if this will interfere with the Bahamas and which days, but one scenario is that it is in the Bahamas about the 1st which suggests a problem for your cruise.  In the past we have seen short cruises simply canceled and refunded. I hope you have insurance for air and other expenses. But don't panic yet, a lot can change.

 

1 hour ago, LuCruise said:

Wondering too but leaving tomorrow.  Hoping Bahamas is far away enough that we're ok. And hope no cancellations across the board...just itinerary changes to keep safe.

Tomorrow.. you will go and return easily, worst case is you have to return a little early, but again,, very early to see that far.

 

Model runs only go about 5 days. So the trend is for this to emerge from PR/Haiti and into the Turks & Caicos, then Bahamas, then... who knows?  Florida? get picked up and move with the westerlies up the Atlantic coast?  Some model runs have it slip below Florida toward the Keys.  No consistency, only possibilities.

[HappyTravels]

My daughter is getting married on the 9/1 sailing of Allure. I hope this storm doesn't affect our embarkation. I don't care where we go as long as we get on the ship!

[discru]

Following

[PelicanBill]

3 hours ago, HappyTravels said:

My daughter is getting married on the 9/1 sailing of Allure. I hope this storm doesn't affect our embarkation. I don't care where we go as long as we get on the ship!

Try to stay calm as it's a long time away in hurricane days.  Let's see mid week. As you know they've already moved Allure to the west for this week.  The question will be what it does 9/1-9/2 when it *could* be heading into SE Florida.  We can't be sure, and we can't know it's strength by then. Too early.

[troyers]

We are also leaving on the Sky 8/31 with stops in Key West and 3 Bahamas ports.  Watching this closely since we are flying in from Houston.  

[Traciewatson]

Following along, We hope to leave in Harmony 9/1.

[stormynow]

Also on the NCL Sky 8/31.  Cozumel wouldn't disappoint me instead of the Bahamas.  Stormy

[troyers]

13 minutes ago, stormynow said:

Also on the NCL Sky 8/31.  Cozumel wouldn't disappoint me instead of the Bahamas.  Stormy

Me neither!

[fla gang]

Being a Florida native and sailing in September several times, this change in plans has happened to us three times. Moved from eastern. to western twice and from western to Eastern once. If the ship can get loaded and get out of port they will figure a way to keep you out of the storm. You may have a day where it is raining and rocking a bit as they are sailing away from the storm, but that's better than three or four thousand sea sick passengers. We were preparing to leave Nassau once and the Captain said well folks, I have bad news and good news. Bad news, we are not going to the Virgin Islands and the good news is we are going where it is calm and sunny. Can't ask for any more than that!

[JTJT1]

We are leaving on Mariner out of Port Canaveral on 9/2.  Getting a bit concerned. 

[PelicanBill]

Well, Dorian brings good news and bad news today.

 

The bad news is the forecast path remains steady, with island arrival Tuesday morning, and then impact to SW Puerto Rico Wednesday and arriving SE part of Dominican Republic  late Wednesday night to Thursday.  While still early to look a week ahead, each day it looks like the Bahamas will be impacted Friday-Saturday-Sunday and arriving SE Florida late Saturday to Sunday.

 

The good news is the intensity is still only tropical storm as it cross Barbados, St. Lucia or near, makes hurricane, and then minimal hurricane at DR, and only a depression when it comes out the north side into the Turks & Caicos and Bahamas. 

 

There is always a change conditions could allow redevelopment so stay informed. Early indicators are for it to cross Southern Florida. We'll see.

[crewsweeper]

Latest thing I see from Weather Underground is that PR is on the Northern edge of the cone with Punta Cana getting a direct impact.  Then Dorian gets chewed up in the Hispaniola mountains.  But  Turks Caicos and Bahamas are still in middle of extended cone and will at least get winds and rain if the storm does drop to a TD.

 

Gonna miss the VIs and St Kitts which are north of the track.  However, that doesn't mean these islands will be rain free early in the week.

[LuCruise]

I'm wondering about secondary impacts. We're leaving on a Bahamas cruise today, back on Friday. I know we are not in the TD range but since we're not so far off, are we to expect rain as well? 

[Traciewatson]

After sailing out of Galveston one week after Harvey I am ready for anything! That trip consisted of flying into Dallas, driving 6 hours to Galveston hoping the whole time we didn’t need gas cause all the stations were closed due to being empty and hoping for no flooded freeways. It was not the easiest of traveling to get there, but we made it and had an amazing cruise! That being said I’m no hurricane expert, but everything I read gives me hope. We leave on Harmony 9/1 out of Orlando. As long as Dorian keeps going the way she is I’m feeling positive that all will be okay. But I know from the last one anything can change so I’ll be monitoring her close. Thanks for all the updates. 

[Newbieflorida]

Your thoughts on Mariner of the Seas out of Port Canaveral on 8/30 with Nassau 8/31 and CocoCay on 9/1. I'm guessing we might have sea days instead?

[tice529]

Has anyone ever had a 3 night cruise cancelled because of a hurricane?  We are supposed to be docking in Nassau for an overnight on 8/31....the same Dorian is scheduled to make an appearance there 😐

[PelicanBill]

Kind of bad news from the 11am update.

 

The path shifted a bit north so it now passes 20 miles off the Puerto Rico coast. Another shift and it means hurricane force winds could come onshore to SW PR.  And it now looks to thread through the pass and go along the north coast of Dominican Republic. that means it can keep strength it would have lost over land, and the forecast is to remain a tropical storm into the Turks and Caicos and into the Bahamas.  Unless we get some shear or something to knock it down, the warm Gulf Stream often gives last minute fuel as a storm approaches Florida.