Week of Sep. 8-14: Invest 95L, New Threat to FL/Gulf

[PelicanBill]

Starting a new thread for this week's threats.

Two minor threats from the coast of Africa need to be watched for next week but are at very low chance to develop for now (10 & 20%).

Invest 95L is now being watched, with 60% chance to develop.  it is over the Bahamas and on a path to cross Florida and land in.... you guessed it.... Alabama.  Well, that's one model.  The other has it farther west heading into Louisiana.  Most model runs leave intensity at a depression strength, with a few going to Tropical Storm or Category 1.  So not predicted to be a big threat at this time.

 

 

[64funwhisper]

hope not a threat to mobile get there on the 15th and leave on the ship the 16th I am starting to be nervous 

[PelicanBill]

25 minutes ago, 64funwhisper said:

hope not a threat to mobile get there on the 15th and leave on the ship the 16th I am starting to be nervous 

Still plenty of time for things to change and still only a chance to develop. The model that favors the Mobile area would have it there on the 16th.  Don't worry yet. Let's see what two days brings.

[64funwhisper]

I appreciate you trying to calm me down so will see what tomarrow brings

[PelicanBill]

Well I wish it were better news but 95L is up to 80% over 5 days but the words say likely to be a tropical storm in a day or two.  I will look harder at path and timing and strength later today. And possible Impacts to Florida ports, Mobile and New Orleans. 

 

In addition the two Africa issues are now only one but a little elevated to 40%. 

 

[PelicanBill]

All right I've done some digging.  

95L (the red one in the Bahamas):  You may notice the zone drawn on the map has shifted a little north from before. This is because two major models have different ideas. One shows most runs heading toward NE Florida, while the other shows most runs crossing the south tip of Florida and heading toward Mobile and New Orleans. So the NHS zone is drawn as a compromise. I think it will take 24-48 hours to resolve the direction of travel. About half the model runs have this becoming a tropical storm but not a hurricane; The other half of the runs do not develop into a tropical storm.

 

94L is the name of the disturbance coming from Africa.  It is a fast mover, approaching the northern islands in 2-3 days.  The model runs are surprisingly aligned with paths very close.  It would cross in the area of Montserrat and then head toward St. Croix and Puerto Rico, but most models runs do not develop into a tropical storm, so that's why the chance to develop is only 40%.

 

I will be watching both closely.

[PelicanBill]

I like to keep an eye on how the media covers storm threats, watching for sensationalizing or overstating the threats.  But once in a while they get it right.  This coverage on ABC is pretty good.  Scroll to the bottom.

 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/severe-storms-move-east-tropical-threat-develops-gulf/story?id=65557573&cid=clicksource_4380645_null_headlines_hed 

 

[DramaQueen22]

Heading out on the Western Caribbean route on the Horizon this Sunday.  Any worries for us from your perspective?  Looks fairly clear but for embarkation in Miami

[Embem]

5 hours ago, DramaQueen22 said:

Heading out on the Western Caribbean route on the Horizon this Sunday.  Any worries for us from your perspective?  Looks fairly clear but for embarkation in Miami

I  have embarkation out of Miami on Saturday - hope nine doesn't cause us trouble! 

[DramaQueen22]

1 hour ago, Embem said:

I  have embarkation out of Miami on Saturday - hope nine doesn't cause us trouble! 

We are flying in on Saturday.  Let's hope our ships get around the "cone" and into good sailing!

[PelicanBill]

Well here we go again. Potential Cyclone 9 is poised for the northern Bahamas and east Florida coast. Possible short disruption to the east ports on Saturday. But Alabama is safe.

 

[mommao729]

I’m on symphony right now. Supposed to come in Saturday to Miami. Also fly out of ft lauderdale to Myrtle beach have an 8pm flight. What do you think. Will we make it in. And do you think we will fly out?

[Umbrae Noctem]

Supposed to be cruising out of Port Everglades on Saturday. You predict any issues?  @PelicanBill

[AshleyDillo]

This appears to be another case where the cruise lines are going to be at the mercy of the port.  The track keeps shifting more and more east which is more promising.

 

But Port Everglades and Port of Miami went to X-RAY at 4pm on 9/12.  https://homeport.uscg.mil/Lists/Content/Attachments/59696/MSIB 19-024 Port Condition X-Ray.pdf

 

This means they anticipate TS storm winds within 48 hours.   They also anticipate that they will go to YANKEE (24 hours to TS winds) at some point today which means that the cruise ships will need special permission to come and go.

 

From the NHC website, I would follow the Arrival Time of Winds forecast to get an idea of the timeline.   This is as of 9/12 at 11AM:

 

[PelicanBill]

It's taking its time to develop. Note that the tropical storm watch has not been posted as far south as Miami and Everglades.  Another nudge east and Miami/Everglades might not go Yankee. Cross your fingers. Pretty sure Canaveral will have to go Yankee and Zulu for Saturday-Sunday. If you study the tropical storm wind speed arrivals posted above, you can see that Miami is at the far outside of the cone. Even though Miami and Everglades are at X-Ray, I believe there is a good chance they will not declare Yankee.  The storm has not begun its serious movement and is still not a depression and moving only 1mph.  We need to see more movement to know where it is going.

Rough to see this just 2 weeks later. 

Also, look at mid week coming up.. Possibly hurricane strength toward Bermuda. More cruise interruptions coming?

 

 

Edited September 13, 2019 by PelicanBill

[PelicanBill]

The other area to watch (orange) is at 50% chance now. Been rising every day.  Model Tracks generally agree it will strengthen and cross the northern lesser Antilles in 3 days. Whether it turns into the Atlantic curve, or goes west toward the greater Antilles is hard to see now.

[mimiluvs2travel]

I have guests on Royal Caribbean Harmony, and an hour ago they announced that they will NOT return to port on Saturday.  The number of days the cruise is being extended hasn't been announced yet, but I will advise. 

[PelicanBill]

1 hour ago, mimiluvs2travel said:

I have guests on Royal Caribbean Harmony, and an hour ago they announced that they will NOT return to port on Saturday.  The number of days the cruise is being extended hasn't been announced yet, but I will advise. 

Which port?

 

the storm is a depression now but will develop slowly. The center is further east than though and Miami is less at risk than this morning. No watches there. Canaveral seems certain to have a port closure. 

[PelicanBill]

Unfortunately, both disturbances east of the Leaser Antilles are now “orange” with 50% and 40% chances respectively. 

[PelicanBill]

Oh goodness. It looks like a game of “Battleship” now.

 

[PelicanBill]

Port Canaveral set condition x-ray at 2pm today, joining Miami and Everglades. This means vessels of  certain size must be ready to sail at a moment’s notice. Cruise ships included of course. 

[dopescally]

5 hours ago, mimiluvs2travel said:

I have guests on Royal Caribbean Harmony, and an hour ago they announced that they will NOT return to port on Saturday.  The number of days the cruise is being extended hasn't been announced yet, but I will advise. 

 

But Harmony isn't supposed to come in to Port Canaveral until Sunday morning. I know this because I am booked for the 9.15 sailing. Why would they announce that they are not coming in Saturday if they're not scheduled to come in until Sunday?

[PelicanBill]

Opening a New thread for Humberto. 

 

Meanwhile our orange X is up to 60% and why not add another yellow X to the map, this time in the gulf?

 

[JoeTec]

On 9/12/2019 at 9:41 AM, PelicanBill said:

I like to keep an eye on how the media covers storm threats, watching for sensationalizing or overstating the threats.  But once in a while they get it right.  This coverage on ABC is pretty good.  Scroll to the bottom.

 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/severe-storms-move-east-tropical-threat-develops-gulf/story?id=65557573&cid=clicksource_4380645_null_headlines_hed 

 

@PelicanBill I live in NJ & ABC news was the only one the predicted Super Storm Sandy 8 days out.  All the other news channels & even the weather channel didn't believe it was happening until almost 2 days before it hit.  They are my go-to for all weather 

[PelicanBill]

The remaining low pressure to watch east of the. Lesser Antilles has an 80% chance to develop but slowly - in 4-5 days . The path is now bending northwest and may avoid the islands and if we are lucky it will get swept in a full curve to the north and then northeast. 

 

Another low low in the gulf has a much smaller chance to be trouble.