RCL Stock

[topnole]

3 hours ago, Biker19 said:

Royal Caribbean Reports Record 2019 Results, Provides 2020 Guidance and Introduces 20>25 by 2025 Program | Royal Caribbean Group Press Center (rclcorporate.com)

Yeah.  I wouldn’t call 2B in net income as minting money.  Good performance?   Yes.  Below a 20% profit margin isn’t exactly minting money.  

[topnole]

3 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

It's not that dramatic. Lots of purchase/sale information is disclosed before the quarterlies. I wouldn't be surprised if more details of this emerge.

Well if is truly leaked info that would cause actionable behavior (as you said it

would for you) it sounds like any one leaking would be subjecting themselves to some serious risk.  

[At Sea At Peace]

3 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I am almost always in agreement with you, but on this one I'm taking a wait and see approach. I still think it's possible. Sure, MSC has lots of new ships in build, but so does NCL and MSC is thirsty for the market.

 

If MSC can pick up NCL's nice new crispy ships for pennies on the dollar I think they would be interested. NCL new builds follow MSC's philosophy in terms of passenger occupancy (cram in as much as possible).  Of course, nothing but speculation on my part. 

 

It's good speculation that NCL would be a fit compared to others if MSC has such an appetite and inclination at all.  NCL doesn't have and wouldn't need to continue spend on developing foreign markets that MSC focuses on and vice-versa.  NCL also has the HAVEN concept akin to the MSC Yacht Club concept.  They are a match in a lot of ways.

 

Re: the 'pennies on the dollar, yep.  Nothing for equity and a haircut for debt holders.

 

CCL simply too big and completely different consumer.  RCL, not sure if also too much to take on with overlap in geographic current markets.

 

 

Edited June 17, 2022 by At Sea At Peace

[topnole]

1 hour ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

It's good speculation that NCL would be a fit compared to others if MSC has such an appetite and inclination at all.  NCL doesn't have and wouldn't need to continue spend on developing foreign markets that MSC focuses on and vice-versa.  NCL also has the HAVEN concept akin to the MSC Yacht Club concept.  They are a match in a lot of ways.

 

Re: the 'pennies on the dollar, yep.  Nothing for equity and a haircut for debt holders.

 

CCL simply too big and completely different consumer.  RCL, not sure if also too much to take on with overlap in geographic current markets.

 

 

The synergy doesn’t seem very good for any of these companies.  The airline aircraft are way more like commodities than the uniqueness of varying ships on varying cruise lines.  So the airline mergers made sense and bigger is better when you use a hub and spoke system.  But no so for cruise lines.  Sure, there are arguably some geographical gaps that help it make some sense, but the product synergy or operational synergy isn’t as valuable in my opinion.  The ships are

just so different it would be hard.  None of this even gets at the massive debt these companies all have making them less desirable targets.  An acquisition would either be a risky pure growth move or something insanely opportunistic (like literally pennies on the dollar which I’m not sure we ever see).   That is my two cents.  

[bruzin_for_a_cruizin]

I don't think we'll see acquisitions within the industry. The ships and the USPs are too divergent between cruise lines.

 

We may see a venture/vulture capital firm swoop in and buy a company. With the stock prices at near-all-time lows, that is indeed a possibility. But, I don't see that happening either. Cruising isn't a business you can acquire, make a bunch of cuts to improve profitability, and turnaround for resale quickly.

 

I just think we're going to see low stock prices for a little while longer. I anticipate it'll take until the end of 2023 for things (labour shortages/wages/supply chain/FCC/etc) to settle down. I'm holding on to my shares in RCL at $79. I might buy some more if it dips below $30 to DCA my position.

 

Of course, nobody should listen to me. I'm terrible with money and make poor choices all the time. I'm just chiming in with my opinion on something I really know nothing about. Ain't Cruise Critic great??!!

[BermudaBound2014]

3 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

It's good speculation that NCL would be a fit compared to others if MSC has such an appetite and inclination at all. 

 

CCL simply too big and completely different consumer.  RCL, not sure if also too much to take on with overlap in geographic current markets.

 

I believe MSC has the appetite. I remember an interview with the son of the owner (forget his name) who stated that MSC wanted to become the largest cruise line in the world. That interview was pre-covid.

 

MSC currently has 11 new ships on order (did I mention appetite?) and the new MSC World will hold the same number of people as Oasis class and use LNG propulsion technology which is kinda a big deal in the age of sustainable tourism.  If you look at the ship designs, the Seaside resembles NCL's Away class with lots of use of the promenade and the World looks very similar to oasis class with boardwalk area. And of course, as you said, MSC Yacht Club and NCL Haven are quite similar in concept. 

 

As you know with my 3 bears analogy, I also agree: CCL is too big for a single acquisition and I think RCL is going to make it all on their own. 

[Baron Barracuda]

CCL today announced a venture with MGM to operate sports books on 50 Carnival, HAL and Princess ships.  I'm sure Royal will be an interested observer as any opportunity for additional onboard revenue would be welcome.  

 

CCL also announced it will be holding an analyst update session next Friday.  Coming this close to the end of the quarter can only assume they will be pre-announcing a disappointing quarter.  Their disclosures might also impact the stocks of RCL and NCLH.  

[zebra36]

3 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

CCL today announced a venture with MGM to operate sports books on 50 Carnival, HAL and Princess ships.  I'm sure Royal will be an interested observer as any opportunity for additional onboard revenue would be welcome.  

 

CCL also announced it will be holding an analyst update session next Friday.  Coming this close to the end of the quarter can only assume they will be pre-announcing a disappointing quarter.  Their disclosures might also impact the stocks of RCL and NCLH.  

That is interesting as Royal has a partnership relation with MLife, MGM's loyalty brand.

[BermudaBound2014]

30 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Their disclosures might also impact the stocks of RCL and NCLH.  

 

All three cruise lines move entirely in sync and have done so for a long time. It's like they are one in the same. I'm certain that whatever CCL has to say will effect RCL and NCLH. Here is what the graph has looked like over the last year, hardly any variation at all. 

 

 

[topnole]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

All three cruise lines move entirely in sync and have done so for a long time. It's like they are one in the same. I'm certain that whatever CCL has to say will effect RCL and NCLH. Here is what the graph has looked like over the last year, hardly any variation at all. 

 

 

Well.  Since Covid it is almost entirely external factors impacting the industry in the same way.  So this chart is a good reflection of that.  

[Big_G]

Either you believe in the company based on their metrics or you don't.  If you're an investor,  buy...buy....buy. If you're a trader, good luck.

[JCDCA]

2 hours ago, Big_G said:

Either you believe in the company based on their metrics or you don't.  If you're an investor,  buy...buy....buy. If you're a trader, good luck.

What metrics would suggest it is a good investment? 🤔

[grandgeezer]

3 hours ago, Big_G said:

Either you believe in the company based on their metrics or you don't.  If you're an investor,  buy...buy....buy. If you're a trader, good luck.

If you’re a trader and willing to put the time and effort in to it, luck becomes less of a factor, and the rewards can be very impressive.

[DirtyDawg]

7 hours ago, JCDCA said:

What metrics would suggest it is a good investment? 🤔

I'll wager the poster's metrics aren't Ben Graham's metrics. 😉

[Big_G]

18 hours ago, JCDCA said:

What metrics would suggest it is a good investment? 🤔

 

I don't share stock advice.

[Big_G]

17 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

If you’re a trader and willing to put the time and effort in to it, luck becomes less of a factor, and the rewards can be very impressive.

 

With volatility this high you'll need some luck no matter how much research you do.

[grandgeezer]

3 hours ago, Big_G said:

 

With volatility this high you'll need some luck no matter how much research you do.

Because of the volatility, I’m on the sidelines for awhile. I have no real need to jump back in until I feel comfortable with the situation. I’ve been playing this game for about thirty five years so I think I have a good feel for what’s going on as I’ve been up and down this elevator several times.

[Big_G]

6 hours ago, ChC said:

 

Normally (or in normal times) I agree with you. But this time is truly different. It is a perfect storm forming. And we don't know if we are in the start of the storm or we are in the first stage of the storm.

 

For investors this is not the time to believe in a company based on past numbers and future predictions. It is really whether you believe a stagnation is coming or not and for how long. 

 

The current time is the perfect scenario for traders, a really bad and long painful time for investors. I am afraid if you don't have trader's instincts and tactics, as an investor you will be eaten alive by hyper information or stagnation.

 

[BermudaBound2014]

If you have any faith in Wells Fargo, they just listed both CCL and NCL in the top 50 stocks to Short/Avoid. They must have more faith in RCL comparatively.

 

Wells Fargo names top 50 stocks to Short/Avoid

 

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[Morecruisesplz]

35 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

If you have any faith in Wells Fargo, they just listed both CCL and NCL in the top 50 stocks to Short/Avoid. They must have more faith in RCL comparatively.

 

Wells Fargo names top 50 stocks to Short/Avoid

 

 

Who follows Wells Fargo?

[bucfan2]

8 hours ago, fredmdcruisers said:

Who follows Wells Fargo?

Who gets/uses stock advice from cc?

[At Sea At Peace]

11 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

If you have any faith in Wells Fargo, they just listed both CCL and NCL in the top 50 stocks to Short/Avoid. They must have more faith in RCL comparatively.

 

Wells Fargo names top 50 stocks to Short/Avoid

 

 

 

2 hours ago, bucfan2 said:

Who gets/uses stock advice from cc?

 

There clearly isn't a standard for who to trust as investment advisors.  If you look at some of the names in the articles that are referenced in such posts, go back and look at the track record since the pandemic, you get a more informed basis for assessing whether you would follow such guidance "with your own money."  Note, a lot of these 'experts' are not using their own money, it's all OPM, and most have moved to a % of assets / investments under management and not % performance.  🧐

 

However, although not taking stock advice from a social media platform aka CC, and being long-term cruisers, we can get valuable feedback on the performance of the cruise lines, passenger counts, service quality, pricing, satisfaction, etc. that assists in the financial considerations (fundamentals in the old days) for each.  😉

 

So, here's a look at a Wells Fargo July 2020 participated endorsement (including reference of the contributor to the above current list) of three particular stocks.  I believe the link gives a "single look" before the paywall.

 

https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/wells-fargo-these-3-strong-buy-stocks-are-must-watch-names/

 

 

 

[Morecruisesplz]

3 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

 

There clearly isn't a standard for who to trust as investment advisors.  If you look at some of the names in the articles that are referenced in such posts, go back and look at the track record since the pandemic, you get a more informed basis for assessing whether you would follow such guidance "with your own money."  Note, a lot of these 'experts' are not using their own money, it's all OPM, and most have moved to a % of assets / investments under management and not % performance.  🧐

 

However, although not taking stock advice from a social media platform aka CC, and being long-term cruisers, we can get valuable feedback on the performance of the cruise lines, passenger counts, service quality, pricing, satisfaction, etc. that assists in the financial considerations (fundamentals in the old days) for each.  😉

 

So, here's a look at a Wells Fargo July 2020 participated endorsement (including reference of the contributor to the above current list) of three particular stocks.  I believe the link gives a "single look" before the paywall.

 

https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/wells-fargo-these-3-strong-buy-stocks-are-must-watch-names/

 

 

 

Who listens to guy on cc who tries to sound knowledgeable?

[topnole]

Institutionalism is a huge problem in the analyst industry (among many other rating agencies).  They mostly parrot each other and the information is always old by definition. It’s like college sports recruiting agencies.  One of the big ones rates a player 98 and a 5 star and most of the others just copy or closely copy that rating.  Meanwhile, some future NFL star goes unrated at a smaller school because half the analysts don’t do their work and just copy each other.  Sometimes a Bama spots them and makes an offer and magically they improve to a 4 star player overnight.  It’s all circular.  
 

Same thing happens in the investment community.  Don’t invest based on an analysts forecast.  You think 5% of them ever even visited one part of the business they are covering?   They mostly just take others material and tweak it slightly (just like the comedians on the ships).  
 

Do your own homework and study their financials, public disclosures, and products.  

[topnole]

On 6/18/2022 at 1:24 AM, grandgeezer said:

If you’re a trader and willing to put the time and effort in to it, luck becomes less of a factor, and the rewards can be very impressive.

History doesn’t predict future stock performance.  Go ahead buying and selling.  Research shows buying and holding leads to better performance.  So even those who make money trading are likely doing worse than they would if they just bought and let it grow.  But they feel better thinking they are so smart to be able to beat the market.  😂😂😂