Don't Bet on NCL Making It Says The Motley Fool

[pmd98052]

Just a turn of phrase. These posters are treating it like nothing. It is a party, a low risk game to them. They want the right to take individual risk while thinking nothing of the consequences of their actions.

 

4,000 people come back from a cruise and then travel back to communities far and wide. I can’t think of a better virus transmission plan.

 

also have to laugh at the USA (and UK and others) allowing people from Brazil into the country given its rates right now.

 

Also seems relevant to being in a confined space on a ship with 4,000 others: https://www.axios.com/cdc-arkansas-church-coronavirus-outbreak-fb265e5a-5db7-4ace-9bc4-098e0d09e7fd.html

 

Thoughts and prayers for them.

Edited May 21, 2020 by pmd98052

[Longwood50]

9 hours ago, pmd98052 said:

You also ignored my HIV comments. Please explain your thinking there.

pmd98052

 

You are wrong there are "treatments"  https://www.healthgrades.com/right-care/coronavirus/how-hospitals-treat-covid-19-patients

This is no different than the flu, cancer, etc.  NO CURE  but the hospitals give supportive care to alleviate the symptoms. 

The point still is that cruise lines are getting unfairly lambasted.  The only reason they can point to a cruise line is that a passenger is on board for one week or longer.  The person gets sick along with others and they are all geographically in the same place.  The ship.

If you took 3000 people and dispersed them throughout a city to shopping malls, restaurants, movie theaters, subways, airline terminals, and supermarkets a certain percentage of them would contract covid 19 and I suspect at even higher rates than on board.  The fact that you are on a ship makes ZERO difference.  It is human contact that passes the disease and that happens unless you completely isolate yourself with no contact.  The fact that ships have 3 to 5 thousand people is totally irrelevant.  It is like saying  you went to a football stadium and so you exposed yourself to 65,000 people.  No you were exposed to those immediately around you.  No different than a cruise. 

In terms of the mortality, yes it is higher than the flu however in over 86% of the cases the person who died had at least one pre existing medical condition.  

Two facts.  Sweden did not social distance.  Its rate of infection and its rate of death is lower than Italy, Spain, France, U.K. and Belgium.   The below picture is of Vietnam on May 16 in a bar.  Notice no social distancing rules, no masks etc.  VIETNAM HAS 97 MILLION PEOPLE AND ZERO DEATHS.  Why  almost all the countries with low coronavirus cases and death are tropical and the countries have young populations Vietnam median age is 30.  Conclusion  a cruise to the Caribbean is a far less likely environment to catch covid in that sitting in a home in Baltimore. 

In terms of HIV you "could" get it if a person infected had an open sore or cut and fluid came into contact with an open cut/sore on you.  In terms of danger, I suspect you have cruised for years despite the fact that most of the wait staff on ships comes from third world countries that are rampant with TB which is easily transmitted. 

Bottom line being on a cruise exposes you to no more risk than having identical contact at your local walmart, lowes, etc.  The difference is that on the cruise you can be identified, when you get back from walmart and come down with the virus no one can identify exactly where you were exposed. 

[PortFees45]

24 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

This is no different than the flu

Nobody should read this absurdly ignorant post beyond this utterly false and ridiculously dangerous statement. 

 

There are vaccines for influenza. There are therapeutic treatments for influenza. There is at least SOME herd immunity from exposure to previous strains of influenza. Influenza is not nearly as contagious as COVID-19. 

 

None of that is true for COVID-19, and if you can't appreciate how significant that is you're not qualified to speak on the subject. Please listen to the countless medical professionals who actually know what they're talking about who all say you are dead wrong about this piece of odious misinformation. 

 

This guy thought like you do...until he felt that endotracheal tube being snaked down his throat.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/05/18/florida-man-who-called-coronavirus-fake-crisis-gets-infected/

Edited May 22, 2020 by PortFees45

[npcl]

1 hour ago, Longwood50 said:

pmd98052

 

You are wrong there are "treatments"  https://www.healthgrades.com/right-care/coronavirus/how-hospitals-treat-covid-19-patients

This is no different than the flu, cancer, etc.  NO CURE  but the hospitals give supportive care to alleviate the symptoms. 

The point still is that cruise lines are getting unfairly lambasted.  The only reason they can point to a cruise line is that a passenger is on board for one week or longer.  The person gets sick along with others and they are all geographically in the same place.  The ship.

If you took 3000 people and dispersed them throughout a city to shopping malls, restaurants, movie theaters, subways, airline terminals, and supermarkets a certain percentage of them would contract covid 19 and I suspect at even higher rates than on board.  The fact that you are on a ship makes ZERO difference.  It is human contact that passes the disease and that happens unless you completely isolate yourself with no contact.  The fact that ships have 3 to 5 thousand people is totally irrelevant.  It is like saying  you went to a football stadium and so you exposed yourself to 65,000 people.  No you were exposed to those immediately around you.  No different than a cruise. 

In terms of the mortality, yes it is higher than the flu however in over 86% of the cases the person who died had at least one pre existing medical condition.  

Two facts.  Sweden did not social distance.  Its rate of infection and its rate of death is lower than Italy, Spain, France, U.K. and Belgium.   The below picture is of Vietnam on May 16 in a bar.  Notice no social distancing rules, no masks etc.  VIETNAM HAS 97 MILLION PEOPLE AND ZERO DEATHS.  Why  almost all the countries with low coronavirus cases and death are tropical and the countries have young populations Vietnam median age is 30.  Conclusion  a cruise to the Caribbean is a far less likely environment to catch covid in that sitting in a home in Baltimore. 

In terms of HIV you "could" get it if a person infected had an open sore or cut and fluid came into contact with an open cut/sore on you.  In terms of danger, I suspect you have cruised for years despite the fact that most of the wait staff on ships comes from third world countries that are rampant with TB which is easily transmitted. 

Bottom line being on a cruise exposes you to no more risk than having identical contact at your local walmart, lowes, etc.  The difference is that on the cruise you can be identified, when you get back from walmart and come down with the virus no one can identify exactly where you were exposed. 

Sweden's little experiment seems to not be going as they expected.  Even though they did not lock down it appears that many stayed home any way.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

 

Sweden had no lockdown but its economy is expected to suffer just as badly as its European neighbors

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibody-study-suggests-sweden-not-reaching-herd-immunity-2020-5

 

A new Swedish coronavirus antibody study suggests the herd-immunity strategy isn't working

 

A new study by Sweden's public-health agency found that just 7% of people in Stockholm had developed coronavirus antibodies by the end of April.

 

Swedish forecasters had predicted that up to half of the population would catch the virus by May.

 

Experts say at least 60% of a population needs to catch the virus before any protective immunity can be achieved.

 

Tom Britton, a professor who helped develop the agency's model, told a Swedish newspaper that it was "surprising" that the forecasts "are so wrong."

 

As far as Vietnam it is not quite like the picture you posted at peak they had 80,000 in quarantine, and had a very tight lockdown

 

https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28770/in-vietnam-economy-could-be-hit-hard-despite-an-effective-covid-19-response

Edited May 22, 2020 by npcl

[Trimone]

The World Health Organization said lessons could be learned from Sweden - now its daily deaths are soaring?

Its not over yet!

Edited May 22, 2020 by Trimone

[pmd98052]

4 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

The point still is that cruise lines are getting unfairly lambasted.  The only reason they can point to a cruise line is that a passenger is on board for one week or longer.  The person gets sick along with others and they are all geographically in the same place.  The ship.

 

Your entire post is laughable. You lost everyone with your "COVID-19 is like the flu" statement. That is factually incorrect. It is a blatant lie with utter disregard for the truth.

 

COVID-19 has a R naught of 5.7 while flu is 1.4 or less. It is massively more contagious than flu and has 4 times the case fatality rate. With Flu you get bad symptoms within 1-4 days so don't typically spread it much further. With COVID you can be walking around for 14+ days spreading it (no symptoms) at over 5 times that rate of flu before dropping dead around day 25 or later. Or fully recovering - meanwhile the people you infected are now spreading it like crazy as well.... Flu also has a vaccine.

 

Its interesting isn't it that NYC has had many many flu seasons. Every year in fact. So has Italy. None of those have seen their ICU units and hopsitals stretched to the max with flu patients in modern history. I've not seen refridgerared trucks outside NYC hospitals for flu season.

 

But keep spreading the lie.

 

Look we all love cruises here. Its why we are on the forum but you only have to read the CDC report of the Diamond Princess to know that an outbreak on a cruise ship is going to be catatrohpic just like outbreaks in nursing homes are. 4,000 people arrive from all over the country and indeed the world to get on a cruise ship the next day. Then confined spaces, an elderly population, re-circulated air, faecal air contamination (COVID-19 spreads via toilet backflushes) in vacuum toilet systems, crowded crew quarters with large single kitchens spreading the virus. Its just not a good recipie. Then you have 4,000 people going back to their communities to spread it further. In fact its one of the worst possible scenarios you could ever devise. It is why the CDC currently has a full no-sail order in place. They don't do that just for shits and giggles.

 

I can't wait to cruise again. I am glad your personal risk profile deems it acceptable to do even today. That is beyond selfish given how COVID-19 spreads. If you were taking the 1-10% chance of dying (age dependent etc) I'd be cool with it. That is your decision. The problem is your decision goes far far beyond you.

 

Now as for Sweden - yes it now has over 5 times the death rate of is Scandanvian neighbours and as with any global depression its economoy is also wrecked. So 5 times more deaths (So far) and no economic benefit.  Comparing Sweden to UK (etc) per capital death rates is nuts - you have to look at populaiton density. UK 260+ people per square mile.  Sweden 24. You have to compare other scandanvian countries with similar pop densities that did lock down. Look at that and the data is simply devastating for Sweden.

 

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by pmd98052

[Longwood50]

4 hours ago, PortFees45 said:

There are vaccines for influenza

PortFees45  I am not saying you are stupid, you just don't think well. 

Vaccines "prevent" they don't cure.  Despite a vaccine for influenza between 5% and 20% of the world gets influenza each and every year. You also "edited" my statement.  I did not say that Coronavirus was like the Flu.  I said the TREATMENT was no different than the flu.  There is NO CURE for the flu either.  A person who is hospitalized with the flu has their symptoms treated.  If they are having trouble breathing they are assisted.  SAME AS THE CORONAVIRUS.   Study sometime.  The common cold is caused by the virus.  Is there a cure? NO NO NO.  Your body naturally fights it off.  Same for Influenza and same for Cornavirus.   PS. with influenza even those who take the vaccine upwards of 50% still catch it.  So if you are hiding under the sheets waiting for the vaccine to prevent it, I 'think' it is coming just after the one to prevent another virus infection AIDS.  Oh wait, we have been attempting that since it was first discovered in 1959. 

[Longwood50]

3 hours ago, npcl said:

As far as Vietnam it is not quite like the picture you posted at peak they had 80,000 in quarantine, and had a very tight lockdown

npcl,

 

I am not sure where you get the 80,000 figure from but even if that is accurate this is a country with 97 million people.   In regards to Sweden.  The point you and others seem to miss is that despite no lock down.  Their situation is not any worse than Italy, Spain, France, U.K. or Belgium..  If the lockdowns and other social distancing were effective, those countries would have markedly lower rates and Swedens astronomically higher.  The fact that Swedens is lower proves that IT MADE NO DIFFERENCE.   

My original point was that cruise lines seem to be slammed unfairly and yes I stand by that.  Lets say you get coronavirus from another family member but are not symptomatic yet.  You take a flight to your cruise and on that flight are several other passengers who are also going on the same cruise.   You go to your hotel and they go to theirs. Now with both groups infected at breakfast before heading to the cruise port all the people now infected pass it along to yet even more passengers.  

Several days later the ship has multiple cases of coronavirus and the headlines blast, the cruise lines.   

This is no different than if you went shopping at Walmart and infected the same number of people but since there is no way to establish how the other Walmart shoppers got it or passed it along No News Headlines. 

The virus does not spread any faster or is more contagious on a cruise ship than in a taxi, subway, bus, airplane, amusement park, theater, or Walmart. 

[hamrag]

1 minute ago, Longwood50 said:

To your point, is coronavirus more dangerous.  Yes likely so.  However, to say their is NO TREATMENT for it, and we must wait for a vaccine is blatantly incorrect...

 Can you enlighten us please....what is the treatment you refer to??

[pmd98052]

1 hour ago, Longwood50 said:

There IS NO CURE FOR THE COMMON COLD OR THE FLU EITHER

 

The common cold doesn't kill and the flu's death rate is 0.1 to 0.4% - Massive difference. Both also have much lower R naught values than COIVD-19. They do not spread as easily.

 

On deaths per capita please compare Sweden to comparable population density countries such as their Scandanvian neighbors. Swedens death rate is 5 times hight.

 

I repeat:  UK 260+ people per square mile.  Sweden 24 per people square mile. You have to compare other scandanvian countries with similar pop densities that did lock down. Look at that and the data is simply devastating for Sweden. Look at Sweden verus Norway or Finland (both have around 20-40 people per square mile). To compare death rates of Sweden to say the UK with 260 people per square mile is crazy. The UK has a massively high death rate because a) Lock down was very late b) No tracing c) No quarantine at airports d) High population density (look at London transport for an example!). Compare apples to apples. Belgium which is high on your list has 380 people per square mile!

 

I see you continue to ignore CDC comments on cruise ship risks, no sail orders, and how 4,000 people arriving in one place from all over the world, being in close quarters and then dispearsing back all over the world is a smart thing to do right now.

 

 

[pmd98052]

1 hour ago, Longwood50 said:

There IS NO CURE FOR THE COMMON COLD OR THE FLU EITHER

 

The common cold doesn't kill and the flu's death rate is 0.1 to 0.4% - Massive difference. Both also have much lower R naught values than COIVD-19. They do not spread as easily.

 

On deaths per capita please compare Sweden to comparable population density countries such as their Scandanvian neighbors. Swedens death rate is 5 times hight.

 

I repeat:  UK 260+ people per square mile.  Sweden 24 per people square mile. You have to compare other scandanvian countries with similar pop densities that did lock down. Look at that and the data is simply devastating for Sweden. Look at Sweden verus Norway or Finland (both have around 20-40 people per square mile). To compare death rates of Sweden to say the UK with 260 people per square mile is crazy. The UK has a massively high death rate because a) Lock down was very late b) No tracing c) No quarantine at airports d) High population density (look at London transport for an example!). Compare apples to apples. Belgium which is high on your list has 380 people per square mile!

 

I see you continue to ignore CDC comments on cruise ship risks, no sail orders, and how 4,000 people arriving in one place from all over the world, being in close quarters and then dispearsing back all over the world is a smart thing to do right now.

 

I'm also old enough to remember the day 3,000 people died on American soil and we (and the world) mourned. America has been losing 3,000 people per day to COVID-19 and we're mad we can't go cruising and eat at a buffet! Lets get a grip on our priorities.

 

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by pmd98052

[PortFees45]

6 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

The virus does not spread any faster or is more contagious on a cruise ship than in a taxi, subway, bus, airplane, amusement park, theater, or Walmart. 

Only someone with absolutely NO formal education in virology, epidemiology, microbiology, or medicine or science in general would say something that ignorant....so, you. 

 

If you didn't dedicate your life to studying this, at least have the common sense to listen to the people who did. 

[PortFees45]

6 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

 A person who is hospitalized with the flu has their symptoms treated.  If they are having trouble breathing they are assisted.  SAME AS THE CORONAVIRUS.   Study sometime.  

Study what? Please cite the specific source you "studied" to come to this BLATANTLY FALSE conclusion. Have you ever read a single peer reviewed/double blind published research paper on how COVID-19 presents clinically? Do you even know what those words mean? 

 

Yes both influenza and COVID-19 can present with respiratory symptoms, however there are MYRIAD symptoms unique to COVID-19, impacts it can seem to have on organs throughout the body - curious issues with blood clotting and strokes, inflammatory/Kawasaki syndrome in children, kidney damage...and I could go on. 

 

Again, you have zero medical training or scientific background whatsoever. If I'm wrong, tell me what degrees you hold and which institutions you earned them from.