More Cancellations Imminent?

[Denarius]

11 hours ago, Turn the Tide said:

Yes but remember that P&O waited until 30th March to move the pause date from 11th April out to 15th May therefore less than 2 weeks before the deadline at the time.

I am watching the situation with interest.

I am due to sail on Azura in the Caribbean in January 2021. I have paid a £50 deposit. The final date for payment of my balance is 11 October, 5 days before Azura is due to sail from Southampton to Barbados on 16 Oct. Suffice to say that I have no intention of paying that balance unless I know for certain that the repositioning cruise is going ahead. If it is cancelled, so too will be my booking.

Edited May 24, 2020 by Denarius

[jh1809]

11 hours ago, wowzz said:

Exactly,  and many of us are still waiting for our refunds!

I imagine that P&O would have preferred to delay the next batch of cancellations until after they had finished paying the refunds that are outstanding from the current batch, but given the glacial speed at which refunds are being made it doesn't look as if that is going to be possible.

[No pager thank you]

16 hours ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

The blanket quarantine policy will be over well before the current cruise resumption date. Not saying that it means they'll go ahead from August but I doubt it'll be because of quarantine rules if they do cancel more cruises. 

Hello there, not quite sure I agree with you on this to be honest, but your suggestion is fair enough.  

 

Let's assume for a moment that the new quarantine only lasts for one, three week period.  This means that the restriction is removed by the end of June.  This is only four weeks away from the current date of Cruises restarting.

 

The problem is that many Cruise contractors will have repatriated and many will be out of contract.  Mobilising and multiple testing of the entire workforce, along with these people retrofitting the entire ship with whatever social distancing measures are then thought to be safe would be a hurculean task.

 

Therefore, unless I have underestimated P&O, this would mean that the quarantine renders 1st August a non-starter.  A second quarantine period (so 6 weeks running to mid July) would make that a near certainty, unless there was a pretty sophisticated contingency plan.

 

What I would say though is that unless such a plan exists, the very latest that P&O can feel they know 1st August to be viable, or not, is towards the end of June - for the reasons outlined above and not two weeks or less.  You could say that's an indirect effect.

 

Personally, I would suggest that there is a well developed understanding of this already, but the impacts on cash flow, watching competitors closely, behaviour of Sister brands, and the Refund Debacle all come in to it.

[No pager thank you]

12 minutes ago, jh1809 said:

I imagine that P&O would have preferred to delay the next batch of cancellations until after they had finished paying the refunds that are outstanding from the current batch, but given the glacial speed at which refunds are being made it doesn't look as if that is going to be possible.

True - the next batch of cancellations, when it comes, will likely also see more "peak season" cash refunds and fewer FCCs, as people looking to move to next July/August will see the cruises have shot up in price, in the main. 

 

Whilst the pace remains glacial, there is little to suggest that timeliness will get back to normal any time soon when it comes to refunds for subsequent cancellations.

[cruisenewbie1976]

50 minutes ago, No pager thank you said:

Hello there, not quite sure I agree with you on this to be honest, but your suggestion is fair enough.  

 

Let's assume for a moment that the new quarantine only lasts for one, three week period.  This means that the restriction is removed by the end of June.  This is only four weeks away from the current date of Cruises restarting.

 

The problem is that many Cruise contractors will have repatriated and many will be out of contract.  Mobilising and multiple testing of the entire workforce, along with these people retrofitting the entire ship with whatever social distancing measures are then thought to be safe would be a hurculean task.

 

Therefore, unless I have underestimated P&O, this would mean that the quarantine renders 1st August a non-starter.  A second quarantine period (so 6 weeks running to mid July) would make that a near certainty, unless there was a pretty sophisticated contingency plan.

 

What I would say though is that unless such a plan exists, the very latest that P&O can feel they know 1st August to be viable, or not, is towards the end of June - for the reasons outlined above and not two weeks or less.  You could say that's an indirect effect.

 

Personally, I would suggest that there is a well developed understanding of this already, but the impacts on cash flow, watching competitors closely, behaviour of Sister brands, and the Refund Debacle all come in to it.

Totally agree with everything you've said. I was trying to make the point that I can't see the 14 day quarantine still being in place on 1st August. But like you say, that doesn't mean that P&O will be able to suddenly spring into action by then,  with just a few weeks notice. 

[wowzz]

11 minutes ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

Totally agree with everything you've said. I was trying to make the point that I can't see the 14 day quarantine still being in place on 1st August. But like you say, that doesn't mean that P&O will be able to suddenly spring into action by then,  with just a few weeks notice. 

Also, I can't see P&O,  or indeed any line, suddenly restarting their entire cruise programme in one fell swoop. Resupplying the ships from scratch is, in itself, going to be a herculean task. You would imagine that ships will be brought back into service on a phased weekly (?) basis.  

[No pager thank you]

16 minutes ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

Totally agree with everything you've said. I was trying to make the point that I can't see the 14 day quarantine still being in place on 1st August. But like you say, that doesn't mean that P&O will be able to suddenly spring into action by then,  with just a few weeks notice. 

Yes, I'd have thought that the quarantine restrictions will be relaxed, at the very least, by 1st August too.  Too controversial not to do so and by then we would be out of kilter with many neighbouring countries. 

 

Agree with both you and Wowzz - operation restart will be very difficult and not in one swoop.

[Snow Hill]

Starting up cruises again will depend on ports reopening to cruise ships, Spain extended their ban until the State of  Emergency is lifted. If there is a hint of a second wave of the virus, then little chance of ships being allowed to dock and if they are I suspect it may be limited to one ship at a time. 

[No pager thank you]

1 hour ago, Snow Hill said:

Starting up cruises again will depend on ports reopening to cruise ships, Spain extended their ban until the State of  Emergency is lifted. If there is a hint of a second wave of the virus, then little chance of ships being allowed to dock and if they are I suspect it may be limited to one ship at a time. 

Probably correct, all leads to more cancellations at some point, or very least itinerary change in the interim.

 

Looking internationally, in relation to Spain, my understanding is that the Spanish authorities have apparently allowed for the resumption of tourism in July, although I can't find any articles that relate specifically to cruise ships.

 

This could lead to the strange scenario when British tourists (land / ships) can travel outwardly freely, but be restricted inwards. 

 

This could be unlike cruise lines operating for more European guests, possibly more MSC or Costa, where governments behave differently.  Possibly guests of different nationalities on the same ship being treated differently repatriating?

 

The French meanwhile have gone for "retaliatory" quarantine; this was the phrase I saw.  So, even if that was positive for Spain therefore, if Portugal don't follow suit, then it rules out the usual week route to ports like Bilbao, La Rochelle, Lisbon / similar.  

 

I understand the quirks with the Norwegian Town Councils, but the Nordic countries are looking to go in step from 24th August.  That rules out the other usual week long cruise ship route round the fjords.  Possibly also the Baltic route if Denmark follow suit.

 

The Northern European circuit generally involved Zeebrugge - do like the stop there, but Belgium appears to be even worse hit than ourselves if some figures are read across, considering the much smaller population.

 

So, unless it's UK / Ireland, what is the route for a "baby steps," one ship at a time that may work in August beyond possibly Amsterdam (correction: bus from IJmuiden) and Guernsey? At the moment I don't see the possibility - hence more cancellations more than likely? 

 

When announced, remains to be seen.

Edited May 24, 2020 by No pager thank you
Error

[P&O SUE]

6 hours ago, No pager thank you said:

Probably correct, all leads to more cancellations at some point, or very least itinerary change in the interim.

 

Looking internationally, in relation to Spain, my understanding is that the Spanish authorities have apparently allowed for the resumption of tourism in July, although I can't find any articles that relate specifically to cruise ships.

 

This could lead to the strange scenario when British tourists (land / ships) can travel outwardly freely, but be restricted inwards. 

 

This could be unlike cruise lines operating for more European guests, possibly more MSC or Costa, where governments behave differently.  Possibly guests of different nationalities on the same ship being treated differently repatriating?

 

The French meanwhile have gone for "retaliatory" quarantine; this was the phrase I saw.  So, even if that was positive for Spain therefore, if Portugal don't follow suit, then it rules out the usual week route to ports like Bilbao, La Rochelle, Lisbon / similar.  

 

I understand the quirks with the Norwegian Town Councils, but the Nordic countries are looking to go in step from 24th August.  That rules out the other usual week long cruise ship route round the fjords.  Possibly also the Baltic route if Denmark follow suit.

 

The Northern European circuit generally involved Zeebrugge - do like the stop there, but Belgium appears to be even worse hit than ourselves if some figures are read across, considering the much smaller population.

 

So, unless it's UK / Ireland, what is the route for a "baby steps," one ship at a time that may work in August beyond possibly Amsterdam (correction: bus from IJmuiden) and Guernsey? At the moment I don't see the possibility - hence more cancellations more than likely? 

 

When announced, remains to be seen.

Good but sad summary there.

[Denarius]

3 hours ago, P&O SUE said:

Good but sad summary there.

I agree.

Sadly, I have come to the conclusion that the chances of ocean cruising being resumed at any time in the near future are slim indeed.

[jeanlyon]

I would agree.  I'm not at all sure about my April 2021 booking.

[bobupandown]

Hi All

I also agree, and I am not sure about our November 6th Cruise going ahead or April the 8th next year.

Tried to book for January 2022 to the Caribbean, but P and O said they weren't taking bookings yet, because they wasn't sure about how things would be on the ships, ports etc. Anyone else been told this, for 2022 booking

 

Bob

 

[jeanlyon]

Blinkin' eck.

[Francisdrake]

Norway numbers are looking promising, might be a fjords cruise first on the agenda.   Sounds like they've already got some Ports back open.

[zap99]

6 minutes ago, Francisdrake said:

Norway numbers are looking promising, might be a fjords cruise first on the agenda.   Sounds like they've already got some Ports back open.

Iona at the end of August, but I think guesswork is just that. When we know,all will have become clear.

 

[bee-ess]

25 minutes ago, bobupandown said:

Hi All

I also agree, and I am not sure about our November 6th Cruise going ahead or April the 8th next year.

Tried to book for January 2022 to the Caribbean, but P and O said they weren't taking bookings yet, because they wasn't sure about how things would be on the ships, ports etc. Anyone else been told this, for 2022 booking

 

Bob

 

 

I booked Jan 1st 2022 on Britannia in Caribbean on 27th April with an FCC and wasn't told that. The cruise is still showing on their website and available to book

Edited May 25, 2020 by bee-ess

[bobupandown]

26 minutes ago, bee-ess said:

 

I booked Jan 1st 2022 on Britannia in Caribbean on 27th April with an FCC and wasn't told that. The cruise is still showing on their website and available to book

May be they are doing all the Cancelled cruise's first and FCC, and see what's left over.

 

Bob

[Manx buoy]

9 minutes ago, bobupandown said:

May be they are doing all the Cancelled cruise's first and FCC, and see what's left over.

 

Bob

I wouldn’t think so they’re desperate for every last penny at the moment 

[Snow Hill]

1 hour ago, Francisdrake said:

Norway numbers are looking promising, might be a fjords cruise first on the agenda.   Sounds like they've already got some Ports back open.

 

Norway has extended its ban of foreign visitors until late August. When they do reopen I suspect priority with be given to Hurtigruten ships. 

 

Norway closed to foreigners into late August

While Norway has begun to ease COVID-19 restrictions for residents, the ban on most international visitors has been extended to late August. There are some exceptions, and the country is reviewing whether to open travel within the Nordic region. A decision is expected no later than June 15.

[Chrisdriving]

Yes Norways numbers do look promising and Norway will want to keep them that way.As above Norway is closed until at least August  .

Edited May 25, 2020 by Chrisdriving

[Hobson1754]

3 hours ago, bobupandown said:

Hi All

I also agree, and I am not sure about our November 6th Cruise going ahead or April the 8th next year.

Tried to book for January 2022 to the Caribbean, but P and O said they weren't taking bookings yet, because they wasn't sure about how things would be on the ships, ports etc. Anyone else been told this, for 2022 booking

 

Bob

 

Hi - I was booked on an Azura Caribbean cruise in January 2021 but we made the decision to change the cruise until the following January (2022), just transferring our deposit. We didn’t have a problem changing - all done by my travel agent but everything is sorted, with a better choice of allocated cabin. We have had to pay a couple of hundred pounds more and I didn’t get the same OBC I got when booking on our last cruise, but still a decent amount (£460). Did you try P&O direct or go through your TA?

Susan

[PandNo Refund]

Spain open for tourism again from July 1st... I wonder if that’ll extend to cruise ships...

[Snow Hill]

7 minutes ago, PandNo Refund said:

Spain open for tourism again from July 1st... I wonder if that’ll extend to cruise ships...

I would have thought unlikely they would wish to risk thousands of cruise ship passengers at that time, they are looking for tourists who spend more than a few hours in the country. 

[terrierjohn]

9 minutes ago, Snow Hill said:

I would have thought unlikely they would wish to risk thousands of cruise ship passengers at that time, they are looking for tourists who spend more than a few hours in the country. 

I believe the berthing fees are quite expensive, so even though ships passengers don't always spend very much in port, I imagine the port authorities will be desperate to get some revenue in before the summer is over.